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Post by soxaddict on Dec 15, 2019 17:39:12 GMT -5
Madison Bumgardner to Dbacks. Another surprising team that came out of no where to land one of the few options in the market. All that's left is Ryu, Khechul, and then Price. I think today's trade and signing only ups the Sox chances of getting a more desperate team looking for whatever is left. Exactly. And with Kluber going to Texas as well. Price is getting more valuable with every move.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Dec 15, 2019 17:58:26 GMT -5
Madison Bumgardner to Dbacks. Another surprising team that came out of no where to land one of the few options in the market. All that's left is Ryu, Khechul, and then Price. I think today's trade and signing only ups the Sox chances of getting a more desperate team looking for whatever is left. I think you can add Robbie Ray's name to available pitchers unless the DBacks think they can wait until the trade deadline. Also, the Yankees will be unloading Happ at some point.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 16, 2019 13:16:32 GMT -5
(This is from another thread but my comment doesn't really fit there. Not sure where it fits really.)
A corollary of this is that we should really expect Bogearts to opt out after 2022, isn't it? And a further corollary would be that there should be that much more emphasis on winning in 2020-2022. One problem with punting on 2020, or even going into a soft rebuild, is not just that it uses up Mookie's last year of control, but one of only three of Bogaerts' years of control, and it's not at all obvious they'd really be able to get into a strong position for 2021 either. Then by 2023, Bogaerts is either gone or signed to a more expensive extension, and Devers is getting expensive...
And that's why they shouldn't trade Price, unless they have a viable plan to replace him in the near future. Like, this season or next.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 16, 2019 14:40:22 GMT -5
(This is from another thread but my comment doesn't really fit there. Not sure where it fits really.) A corollary of this is that we should really expect Bogearts to opt out after 2022, isn't it? And a further corollary would be that there should be that much more emphasis on winning in 2020-2022. One problem with punting on 2020, or even going into a soft rebuild, is not just that it uses up Mookie's last year of control, but one of only three of Bogaerts' years of control, and it's not at all obvious they'd really be able to get into a strong position for 2021 either. Then by 2023, Bogaerts is either gone or signed to a more expensive extension, and Devers is getting expensive... And that's why they shouldn't trade Price, unless they have a viable plan to replace him in the near future. Like, this season or next. Price has 10/5 no trade protection past this year. You have to trade him now to make it less complicated.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 16, 2019 16:20:07 GMT -5
(This is from another thread but my comment doesn't really fit there. Not sure where it fits really.) A corollary of this is that we should really expect Bogearts to opt out after 2022, isn't it? And a further corollary would be that there should be that much more emphasis on winning in 2020-2022. One problem with punting on 2020, or even going into a soft rebuild, is not just that it uses up Mookie's last year of control, but one of only three of Bogaerts' years of control, and it's not at all obvious they'd really be able to get into a strong position for 2021 either. Then by 2023, Bogaerts is either gone or signed to a more expensive extension, and Devers is getting expensive... And that's why they shouldn't trade Price, unless they have a viable plan to replace him in the near future. Like, this season or next. Price has 10/5 no trade protection past this year. You have to trade him now to make it less complicated. Good point. But I'm also less bothered than some by the idea of just having David Price as one of our pitchers for the next three years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2019 16:24:59 GMT -5
Price has 10/5 no trade protection past this year. You have to trade him now to make it less complicated. Good point. But I'm also less bothered by some by the idea of just having David Price as one of our pitchers for the next three years. If they don't trade Price how do you propose that they get under the luxury tax limit which is what ownership wants? Arguing whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant. You don't just lose David Price, not have the money to replace him, and do better in that rotation spot....and if Martin Perez IS Price's replacement (rather than Porcello's or the depth option), it won't be an upgrade.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 16, 2019 19:15:21 GMT -5
Good point. But I'm also less bothered by some by the idea of just having David Price as one of our pitchers for the next three years. If they don't trade Price how do you propose that they get under the luxury tax limit which is what ownership wants? Arguing whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant. You don't just lose David Price, not have the money to replace him, and do better in that rotation spot....and if Martin Perez IS Price's replacement (rather than Porcello's or the depth option), it won't be an upgrade. Unless they get Jon Gray. I’m not ready to let that one go 🤣🤣
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Post by incandenza on Dec 16, 2019 19:36:27 GMT -5
Good point. But I'm also less bothered by some by the idea of just having David Price as one of our pitchers for the next three years. If they don't trade Price how do you propose that they get under the luxury tax limit which is what ownership wants? Arguing whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant. You don't just lose David Price, not have the money to replace him, and do better in that rotation spot....and if Martin Perez IS Price's replacement (rather than Porcello's or the depth option), it won't be an upgrade. Sigh. I mean, you're not wrong. (I wouldn't exactly say "whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant," but I get your point.) It's just such a bummer for everything this off-season to have to be considered through this lens of the salary cap (real or self-imposed), especially in light of the fact that it's not really clear what the team's mandate is in regards to the salary cap. Anyway, I repeat myself here, but just to be clear about my thinking: 1) They have a very talented roster and should go for it in 2020. If things don't work out they can trade guys off at mid-season to get under the cap. 2) If they are going to trade Price, they might as well go full re-build in a way that involves making them strong contenders in 2021/22. That would include trading Mookie. 3) Possibly Bloom is a genius who can trade Price and still manage to put together an effective pitching staff. So if he does pull the trigger on the trade I won't judge him harshly. I will want to see how all the pieces fit together at the end of the off-season however.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 16, 2019 22:44:44 GMT -5
I think it is a mandate to the extent that Bloom can get something in return for JBJ and Price. Meaning it depends on the market which should be there I would think.
And yeah how about that Xander deal now!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 17, 2019 0:33:14 GMT -5
If they don't trade Price how do you propose that they get under the luxury tax limit which is what ownership wants? Arguing whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant. You don't just lose David Price, not have the money to replace him, and do better in that rotation spot....and if Martin Perez IS Price's replacement (rather than Porcello's or the depth option), it won't be an upgrade. Sigh. I mean, you're not wrong. (I wouldn't exactly say "whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant," but I get your point.) It's just such a bummer for everything this off-season to have to be considered through this lens of the salary cap (real or self-imposed), especially in light of the fact that it's not really clear what the team's mandate is in regards to the salary cap. Anyway, I repeat myself here, but just to be clear about my thinking: 1) They have a very talented roster and should go for it in 2020. If things don't work out they can trade guys off at mid-season to get under the cap. 2) If they are going to trade Price, they might as well go full re-build in a way that involves making them strong contenders in 2021/22. That would include trading Mookie.3) Possibly Bloom is a genius who can trade Price and still manage to put together an effective pitching staff. So if he does pull the trigger on the trade I won't judge him harshly. I will want to see how all the pieces fit together at the end of the off-season however. One of the errors even the most statistically-minded make is to over-estimate the impact of a single player. (I say that, because I catch myself making it.)
If you are a credible contender with David Price in your rotation, and you downgrade him to Martin Perez, you're still a credible contender. It sounds like a huge gulf of talent, but Steamer has it as a 1.0 WAR downgrade. If the Sox are correct about Perez, it might well be zero.
2020 started out as a big gamble that Sale, Price, and Eovaldi could all pitch in their neighborhood of their evident talent. If that happened to its fullest, you'd one of the best teams in MLB, even with a downgrade in CF.
Now it's a big gamble that Sale and Eovaldi can pitch up to their evident talents and Perez can pitch up to his latent talent.
Another way of looking at this: the error bars on the combined projection of the three guys (before or after) swamp the projected difference between Price and Perez, to the degree that the latter is barely visible in comparison.
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Post by trajanacc on Dec 17, 2019 8:49:07 GMT -5
^^^I was just going to write this.
Losing a 2-3 WAR player doesn’t change your status from contender to not, all on its own. Especially considering the variance in individual performance from year to year. I’d argue that Betts is the only player capable of that kind of impact. And even there, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they could make up ~7 WAR from other breakout performances and win 90-95 games.
The Belichick-era Patriots are actually a great example of this. They have frequently dumped key players in the midst of contending seasons, to the initial chagrin of many fans. But in a sport where no one individual player has a massive impact (with the obvious exception of the QB), they are able to plug the hole and continue to contend, never having to “rebuild”.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 17, 2019 10:22:58 GMT -5
Sigh. I mean, you're not wrong. (I wouldn't exactly say "whether it's going to make the team better or worse is irrelevant," but I get your point.) It's just such a bummer for everything this off-season to have to be considered through this lens of the salary cap (real or self-imposed), especially in light of the fact that it's not really clear what the team's mandate is in regards to the salary cap. Anyway, I repeat myself here, but just to be clear about my thinking: 1) They have a very talented roster and should go for it in 2020. If things don't work out they can trade guys off at mid-season to get under the cap. 2) If they are going to trade Price, they might as well go full re-build in a way that involves making them strong contenders in 2021/22. That would include trading Mookie.3) Possibly Bloom is a genius who can trade Price and still manage to put together an effective pitching staff. So if he does pull the trigger on the trade I won't judge him harshly. I will want to see how all the pieces fit together at the end of the off-season however. One of the errors even the most statistically-minded make is to over-estimate the impact of a single player. (I say that, because I catch myself making it.)
If you are a credible contender with David Price in your rotation, and you downgrade him to Martin Perez, you're still a credible contender. It sounds like a huge gulf of talent, but Steamer has it as a 1.0 WAR downgrade. If the Sox are correct about Perez, it might well be zero.
2020 started out as a big gamble that Sale, Price, and Eovaldi could all pitch in their neighborhood of their evident talent. If that happened to its fullest, you'd one of the best teams in MLB, even with a downgrade in CF.
Now it's a big gamble that Sale and Eovaldi can pitch up to their evident talents and Perez can pitch up to his latent talent.
Another way of looking at this: the error bars on the combined projection of the three guys (before or after) swamp the projected difference between Price and Perez, to the degree that the latter is barely visible in comparison.
That's fairly convincing, but it seems like you're doing a bit of equivocating here. First you're taking the Steamer projections to say that it's only a 1.0 WAR downgrade, and then you're comparing Perez's upside to Price's median projection to say it might be no downgrade at all, and then you're comparing the upside of Sale/Price/Eovaldi to the upside of Sale/Eovaldi/Perez in a kind of hand-wavey way that makes these seem equivalent. But realistically, things need to go fairly well - though I wouldn't say perfect - with the rotation for this to be a playoff team, which means that maybe the more relevant comparison is Price's upside vs. Perez's upside, and I think the difference there is more significant than you make it out to sound. Nevertheless, it's a good point overall. I'll also want to see who else Bloom gets to eat up some innings; at the moment, sans Price, I don't see where they get enough quality innings from.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 17, 2019 16:37:17 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 17, 2019 17:06:12 GMT -5
I'd drive Price and Benny to the airport for that return, but that report is a load of crap.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 17, 2019 18:22:48 GMT -5
I'd drive Price and Benny to the airport for that return, but that report is a load of crap. Does anyone speak Gammo language? Lol. Is he confirming what he said the other day on MLBN about possibly Price and Benny and cash for Madrigal and Vaughn may be in the works?
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Post by caseytins on Dec 20, 2019 13:51:07 GMT -5
I was hearing some rumors today of Price gaining interest from both the Twins and the White Sox. I don't believe there is any combination of him and Betts to be packaged in a trade.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 21, 2019 20:54:33 GMT -5
I was hearing some rumors today of Price gaining interest from both the Twins and the White Sox. I don't believe there is any combination of him and Betts to be packaged in a trade. The Khechul to the White Sox signing probably eliminates Price as a option there. Still leaves the Angels, Cardinals, Padres, and maybe Twins? as possibilities.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Dec 21, 2019 21:19:58 GMT -5
I was hearing some rumors today of Price gaining interest from both the Twins and the White Sox. I don't believe there is any combination of him and Betts to be packaged in a trade. The Khechul to the White Sox signing probably eliminates Price as a option there. Still leaves the Angels, Cardinals, Padres, and maybe Twins? as possibilities. In addition to Price as an option, there's also Ryu, Ray and Happ available as possibilities.
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 22, 2019 15:18:52 GMT -5
Paywall, but the Jays and Sox are talking a Price trade. Nothing close though.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 22, 2019 16:58:42 GMT -5
I can see the Sox being interested in Jordan Groshans, low level prospect with a ton of upside. Anthony Kay is a starting pitching prospect close to major league ready. They got a lot of interesting arms in the lower minors also.
The Jays have a good enough farm system to get something done if the Sox are motivated to move Price to Toronto.
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Post by patford on Dec 22, 2019 20:53:29 GMT -5
I simply find it pathetic in the extreme that people give a crap about "the Eck."
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Post by Smittyw on Dec 22, 2019 21:13:57 GMT -5
I simply find it pathetic in the extreme that people give a crap about "the Eck." Come again?
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iii
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Post by iii on Dec 22, 2019 21:26:34 GMT -5
I simply find it pathetic in the extreme that people give a crap about "the Eck." Why wouldn't people "give a crap" about one entitled, over sensitive, self important D-bag ambushing a Hall of Fame player who was doing his job and doing it well. It's not what he was pissed about it is about the way he chose to address it, not man to man, he did not have the stones for that, but in an ambush.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 22, 2019 21:29:06 GMT -5
I wouldn’t exactly say he was “doing his job well”. And in fairness Price did offer to address it “man to man” and apologize but I believe eck didn’t have interest in that. Which is why Price was pissy about eck talking about it this season
And quite frankly I don’t care about either side in this. They’re big boys millionaires, they can both handle it
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Dec 22, 2019 23:00:50 GMT -5
Not sure if it's the same source as Ken Rosenthal is using for his earlier report but the Globe is reporting that a major league source has confirmed the Blue Jays are talking to the Red Sox about a potential trade for Price.
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