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bosox
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Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Dec 22, 2019 23:33:21 GMT -5
So much for Jays and Price talk:
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cdj
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Posts: 14,075
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Post by cdj on Dec 22, 2019 23:36:23 GMT -5
And just like that we are back to square one
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 22, 2019 23:43:05 GMT -5
And just like that we are back to square one Just means another team is going to come up more desperate. Angels, Padres, and Cardinals need pitching. No where else to turn. Going to be real interesting.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2019 23:55:50 GMT -5
I have no clue how much money the Jay's have to spend, but they need a lot more than just one pitcher to even try and compete.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2019 2:23:30 GMT -5
And just like that we are back to square one Just another team is going to come up more desperate. Angels, Padres, and Cardinals need pitching. No where else to turn. Going to be real interesting. I think Price going to Toronto just points him in the direction of the Dodgers, who just lost Ryu.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Dec 23, 2019 7:18:56 GMT -5
In a vacuum I think I'd want Price at 3x20 than Ryu at 4x20.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 23, 2019 7:56:30 GMT -5
Take this FWIW. Probably not much.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2019 8:59:45 GMT -5
I've been on the fence as to whether the Sox trade Betts or not. Hell, I even asked Lenny Dinardo what he thought when I saw him and he said, "Your guess is as good as mine. Flip a coin".
The more I think about it, the more I think the math dictates that they have to.
I read somewhere recently that the Sox are at 238 million after signing Perez and Peraza (the Sox spent $9 million on two mediocre players - they need a starter so I get Perez but I don't understand dropping $3 million on a Eduardo Nunez type player in Peraza), so now they need to shed even more salary, like $30 million.
I had figured on the Sox saving about half of Price's AAV, maybe even $20 million. I figured on them losing JBJ's AAV as well, but even that won't add up to enough to get under the limit, so somebody else would need to go as well.
Ideally you figure they'd want somebody to take at least half of Eovaldi's AAV, but I really have trouble seeing that happen and even so, they wouldn't have much money to spend to fill another hole in the rotation as their rotation would be Sale (healthy?), E-Rod, Perez, and ?? (Johnson and Velazquez? Yeesh), and they'd be down an OF, depending upon what they'd get back in a Price/JBJ deal.
Hate to say it but unless they unload JDM, which does their offense no favors, they're going to have to trade Betts so they can get some value back and have a significant amount of savings left to replenish their holes on the roster.
I don't want them to trade Betts, but I don't really see how they keep Betts, stay under 208 million and have the money to fill in their holes - and it already cost them $9 million to bring in two below average players. Hard to see them seriously competing for the division with the holes in their rotation, a questionable bullpen and who knows what in CF and on the right side of their infield.
Just as an aside, if the Sox do wind up dealing Betts, they'd best be served spending their money on either Thames at 1b or hoping Bird can be healthy and be a big LH bat for them. As for as outfielders go, I always have thought Cory Dickerson has been an underrated bat. Maybe the Sox can get those two guys cheaply, but I'm not even sure they can afford them if they only trade JBJ and Price.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 23, 2019 9:53:39 GMT -5
If they can move Price, JBJ and a BP Arm (Hembree), they'd be around 206 with holes at LF/CF, Backup C and a Platoon 1B/OF option (this would assume they go in with Workman as Closer which . . . let's save that for another discussion).
So they enter the season somewhere around 210 - 215 depending on how much they spend on the above holes.
Some feel that's where the goal vs mandate comes in. Depending on how the season is going, they could either make moves to get under or sell off pieces (even Mookie) to get under and reset.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2019 10:05:46 GMT -5
If they can move Price, JBJ and a BP Arm (Hembree), they'd be around 206 with holes at LF/CF, Backup C and a Platoon 1B/OF option (this would assume they go in with Workman as Closer which . . . let's save that for another discussion). So they enter the season somewhere around 210 - 215 depending on how much they spend on the above holes. Some feel that's where the goal vs mandate comes in. Depending on how the season is going, they could either make moves to get under or sell off pieces (even Mookie) to get under and reset. That makes sense. Stay close to the line (although I don't see how they spend so little yet have enough pitching to seriously contend and still replace JBJ), but yes, if they're not really in it come July they could deal Betts and/or JDM to buy them the space to dip just under. Of course if they're in the race, they'd pay the penalties. But if they're really willing to take on the penalties then they should have been improving the 2019 team which they haven't really done.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 23, 2019 11:36:32 GMT -5
If they can move Price, JBJ and a BP Arm (Hembree), they'd be around 206 with holes at LF/CF, Backup C and a Platoon 1B/OF option (this would assume they go in with Workman as Closer which . . . let's save that for another discussion). So they enter the season somewhere around 210 - 215 depending on how much they spend on the above holes. Some feel that's where the goal vs mandate comes in. Depending on how the season is going, they could either make moves to get under or sell off pieces (even Mookie) to get under and reset. That makes sense. Stay close to the line (although I don't see how they spend so little yet have enough pitching to seriously contend and still replace JBJ), but yes, if they're not really in it come July they could deal Betts and/or JDM to buy them the space to dip just under. Of course if they're in the race, they'd pay the penalties. But if they're really willing to take on the penalties then they should have been improving the 2019 team which they haven't really done. This could very well be the strategy, get close enough without totally bailing on 2020. Then based on how the season goes you can still go for it or bail half way thru if say Sale is not Sale. With no Price they really need a great year out of Sale to be in it.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2019 11:46:52 GMT -5
Based on the Keuchel and Ryu deals, I feel like Price would probably get around 3/50 if he were a free agent right now. Does that sound about right?
That would imply that the amount of money they'd have to eat in a Price trade (assuming they didn't give away any other value) wouldn't quite get them down to that 210-215 range.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2019 12:19:28 GMT -5
Based on the Keuchel and Ryu deals, I feel like Price would probably get around 3/50 if he were a free agent right now. Does that sound about right? That would imply that the amount of money they'd have to eat in a Price trade (assuming they didn't give away any other value) wouldn't quite get them down to that 210-215 range. Right, and even if they dump JBJ's full salary, they're still over 208 million, so either they go into the season risking that they stay over if they're in serious Wild Card contention or they have to do some serious dumping of contracts like Betts and JDM in July if they're not to try to get under. I don't see how they get under to start the season and keep Betts (unless by some miracle somebody takes a chunk of Eovaldi's deal off their hands), nor do I see how they would have money left over to fill their holes to give them a legit shot at being there neck and neck with the Yankees.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 23, 2019 12:26:29 GMT -5
We might as well just keep the team and reset the cap next year. Or trade Mookie if we get a good offer. I hate the idea of selling low on Price.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 23, 2019 12:41:45 GMT -5
Based on the Keuchel and Ryu deals, I feel like Price would probably get around 3/50 if he were a free agent right now. Does that sound about right? That would imply that the amount of money they'd have to eat in a Price trade (assuming they didn't give away any other value) wouldn't quite get them down to that 210-215 range. Not really. The amount of money is a sliding scale (typically). If that is his value, then a trade should bring a commensurate package of prospects. However, if Boston wants to save more money, they take less in return. Not saying they should but that's would be how it works.
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Post by caseytins on Dec 23, 2019 13:14:36 GMT -5
Take this FWIW. Probably not much. One of the teams are the Twins. I know they are interested and have been for weeks.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2019 13:35:11 GMT -5
Based on the Keuchel and Ryu deals, I feel like Price would probably get around 3/50 if he were a free agent right now. Does that sound about right? That would imply that the amount of money they'd have to eat in a Price trade (assuming they didn't give away any other value) wouldn't quite get them down to that 210-215 range. Not really. The amount of money is a sliding scale (typically). If that is his value, then a trade should bring a commensurate package of prospects. However, if Boston wants to save more money, they take less in return. Not saying they should but that's would be how it works. I don't follow. If he's worth less than his contract, why would a team give up prospects to take on that contract?
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Post by texs31 on Dec 23, 2019 13:39:10 GMT -5
The idea is that if Sox "buy his contract down" to the point where the new team is paying what he's worth, then it's a pure baseball trade. The less the Sox contribute (and the more "overpriced" he is), the closer it becomes to a contract dump.
The more money the Sox pay, the better the prospects. But if they want to get more savings, then they take a lesser package in return.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,507
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 23, 2019 14:45:10 GMT -5
As long as they follow through and trade Price I'm going to give Bloom the benefit of the doubt on whatever he gets back for him. He's earned it based on the history of the deals he's been involved with. I fully expect Price to have a good year (elsewhere) and some will gripe about it, but I don't think he ever fit in this market, and his personal crusade against the media hasn't helped that cause. Yes, it will weaken us in the short term, but in the long term we'll be better ripping the band-aid off and then finding ways to reinvest the money we spent more wisely.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 23, 2019 15:02:50 GMT -5
I know I sound like a broken record, but I’d MUCH rather deal Price and Martinez (or package them together to the right fit) than Betts. The value of the outfield defense we’ve enjoyed these past 5+ years cannot be overstated (at least in my book).
We can figure something out with 1B and DH, but replacing two gold glove outfielders? No thanks. Let it ride with Mookie in 2020 and see where things lie afterward. With the Price/Martinez savings, Bloom should be more than able to fill rotation depth, a backup catcher, and any other depth needed before heading to the Fort.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,507
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 23, 2019 15:14:41 GMT -5
I know I sound like a broken record, but I’d MUCH rather deal Price and Martinez (or package them together to the right fit) than Betts. The value of the outfield defense we’ve enjoyed these past 5+ years cannot be overstated (at least in my book). We can figure something out with 1B and DH, but replacing two gold glove outfielders? No thanks. Let it ride with Mookie in 2020 and see where things lie afterward. With the Price/Martinez savings, Bloom should be more than able to fill rotation depth, a backup catcher, and any other depth needed before heading to the Fort. I don't disagree, but that's working on the premise that Betts continues to be a defensive stalwart, and we saw some chinques in the armor last year (at least I did) where he seemed to be out of position, or lackadaisical to the ball. I also do have some concerns long term about his durability with his frame. If you're signing him to a LT deal, he's probably only got 3-4 years left of that deal where he is viable in RF before he becomes a very good left fielder. I think you are right though, it's been nice to have at least one aspect of our defense be steller, moving Betts now makes our OF defense weaker, at a time where our infield defense is pretty weak to start with. Offensively, I think we can withstand it, but the lack of range if Betts and Bradley are gone will make for more opposition doubles.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 24, 2019 4:38:11 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 14,075
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2019 8:59:51 GMT -5
What Bloom does with Price is going to be the thing I judge him on for a long time. At the start of the offseason I would have thought Price 100% untradable. The market has gifted Bloom this situation where Price looks to he worth about $20m, making a trade relatively appealing. He has to make this trade and jerking teams around for just a little extra seems to me like he's playing with fire. Purely speculative, but I feel like DD would have taken his $20m a ran 2 weeks ago. Maybe Bloom is a genius for waiting out the market, but right now I'm missing Dombrowski and his decisiveness. Would DD move him though? He’s acquired him twice, he seems to really like the guy. Plus it would be pretty much admitting the big FA move of his tenure was a mistake I think bloom may be the right guy because he doesn’t have any connection with this roster. These guys didn’t win HIM a World Series, he won’t have that sentimentality that DD seemed to have (given the contracts he handed out in hindsight)
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 24, 2019 9:16:58 GMT -5
Am I wrong to think an aspect of this offseason is what the Sox can get in trades to get under will affect whether they do or not. I mean their is arguments to be made that they should just say the hell with it and go for it anyways so if the market isn't there could they scrap that and go for it? To some degree this really should matter shouldn't it or is it do what ever needs to be done and make what you feel are not fair market deals to get under.
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Post by semperfisox on Dec 24, 2019 9:28:35 GMT -5
I really miss how exciting the MLB offseason used to be.
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