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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 24, 2019 9:46:39 GMT -5
I wish the Sox matched up better with the Twins in terms of making a deal. They have the lineup to make a deep post season run, but desperately need starters. They also have plenty of payroll room to take on Price's full salary. Our entice them attach on candidate, Bennentendi, is not an up grade over the outfielders they have though. In potential maybe, but not performance. The Twins have Royce Lewis ready for a middle infield role so maybe the Sox could get Luis Arraez to play 2B for a Price/ Chavis / Duran ( future OF depth) package. Twins take on all of Price's salary.
Hmm..Maybe they could match up after all if the Twins really want to win in 2020.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 10:34:12 GMT -5
Here's the thing, though. What was said about what the Red Sox are trying to do sounds accurate. I'm sure Bloom is trying to squeeze some talent out of a team that's willing to take on a good chunk of his contract.
And that probably isn't going to happen. A team that is willing to pay $20 million/year out of his $31 million/year contract will probably look at a Price acquisition as basically a free agent signing and why should they have to give up talent to do that?
So yeah, if the Sox pay roughly $20 million/year of the $31 million AAV, they can probably get a decent prospect, but wouldn't that defeat the purpose of what the Red Sox are REALLY trying to do this year - their #1 priority - which is get under the payroll?
The Red Sox have made it clear that their intent is to get under the luxury tax. I think, based on their moves so far, and their major lack of moves so far, their #1 goal for 2020 is to be under $208 million. Hate to say it, but in my opinion I think winning is secondary this year, although I'm sure many here will disagree with this sentiment. Not saying that they don't want to win. I just don't think it's quite as important as ducking under the $208 million mark. Or another way of saying it is I don't think they're "all in".
Either way they're in a conundrum. The Red Sox either heavily subsidize Price to possibly pitch well with another competitor and get something of quality back, but not somebody who can be his viable replacement in the rotation and have even that much more money to shed, or they don't heavily subsidize him, lose him, get nothing back at all, and still need to cut payroll luxury tax limit.
Honestly, given that the Sox are nearly 30 million over, I think the Sox will find out that other teams are not willing to take him on at free agent money and give the Sox anything much of value, and I think the Sox will wind up conceding that point just to lose that salary. And yet, they'll still have to spend something to find another couple of pitchers for the rotation (or bulk innings because even if you use openers you still need a guy coming out of the pen capable of throwing starting pitcher innings).
If Bloom gets anything of value for Price and the acquiring team pays free agent market value, then either Bloom is awesome and/or the other GM is really desperate.
And I hate to say this, but I do think the Sox will find the same issue with JBJ. Teams know his defensive metrics were down this past year and his bat is a liability. He's a decent player, but not one you're going to take on $8 million to $10 million of and give a lot back for. I do think that the Cubs or Dbacks would be happy to take him off the Red Sox' hands, but I wouldn't anticipate much of a return there either - unless the Sox pay half of that $10 million (or whatever he'd get through arbitration is).
And as difficult as getting quality for Price and JBJ would be it's even more difficult with Eovaldi. I don't know how Bloom makes this work.
Maybe he does as others suggest, keep the Sox close to the luxury tax limit, hope they compete anyways, even if it's without Price and JBJ and very little in the way of viable replacements (for me, I would try Dickerson in LF and move Benintendi to RF and Betts to CF), and if they're in it, hope management changes their mind about ducking under or if they're not, get ready to unload Mookie and JD Martinez in July to get under the 208 million mark.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 24, 2019 11:03:21 GMT -5
A team that is willing to pay $20 million/year out of his $31 million/year contract will probably look at a Price acquisition as basically a free agent signing and why should they have to give up talent to do that? I'm confused. Why would they look at it as a Free Agent acquisition? Assuming the Sox pay the money down, the new team would be acquiring a pitcher whose salary is now commensurate with his production (presumably) and that costs something.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 24, 2019 11:11:13 GMT -5
Am I wrong to think an aspect of this offseason is what the Sox can get in trades to get under will affect whether they do or not. I mean their is arguments to be made that they should just say the hell with it and go for it anyways so if the market isn't there could they scrap that and go for it? To some degree this really should matter shouldn't it or is it do what ever needs to be done and make what you feel are not fair market deals to get under.
I don't think the instructions are get under at all costs, so I don't think they make moves purely to cut salary unless cutting salary allows them to re-allocate it to more sure long term solutions. I think ownership sees teams like the Dodgers, Indians, Astros, Rays, St. Louis, and sadly the Yankees, and they see that they are winning while spending significantly less, and have a much more robust farm system. Dave Dombrowski won them a championship, but the path he carved also laid waste to their minor league system. He is a dying breed of GM, the last of the old guard, who's credo was "In Veterans I Trust." One only has to look at Detroit to see how bad it could have gotten had he been allowed to continue his plan. In retrospect, the ownership failed when Cherrington walked away by allowing him to surround himself with his cronies and not putting a strong antagonist to mollify some of his tendencies. All of this being said, the Red Sox can't cry poor, they are a healthy profitable franchise, and this is a blip in time where they can, and should restructure their salary load so that at least they have depth to show for their output of cash. Right now, they have a lot invested into a cast of players who have health and performance question marks. But they also have some good pieces in Bogearts, Devers, Benintendi to build a competitive team around. I hope Bloom finds some creative answers, I'm really curious to see what he does this offseason, and next year to see what their path for 2021 will be. I do believe with the right moves they can still be competitive (read not finish in last place) and our future outlook can be much improved.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 11:32:40 GMT -5
A team that is willing to pay $20 million/year out of his $31 million/year contract will probably look at a Price acquisition as basically a free agent signing and why should they have to give up talent to do that? I'm confused. Why would they look at it as a Free Agent acquisition? Assuming the Sox pay the money down, the new team would be acquiring a pitcher whose salary is now commensurate with his production (presumably) and that costs something. I'm assuming the Red Sox would only pay about 1/3 of his AAV. If so, that means the acquiring team is paying roughly $60 for 3 years, not that different from what the free agents like Keuchel have been getting. I think Price is capable of pitching at a high level but he's missed time with assorted injuries the past two years, plus he is 33 years old. Basically a team paying him $20 million/year is paying a free agent price for what he has been recently (as opposed to the ace he was with Tampa, Detroit, and Toronto). If they're doing that why would they give the Red Sox anything of value? The only way they do is if there is some immense bidding war for his services. Now, if the Sox paid, say half, then that would be different. Price at $15 million/year or so is probably a good bargain, so yeah, that would require some useful compensation to the Red Sox. But I would have to think that the Red Sox would find the extra $5 million or so off the books, when they have a lot more to chop off the books to get under the limit, to be more valuable than a prospect coming back (even though like all of us, if they're going to trade Price, I'd rather see them get a quality prospect, too).
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Dec 24, 2019 11:33:15 GMT -5
Would DD move him though? He’s acquired him twice, he seems to really like the guy. Plus it would be pretty much admitting the big FA move of his tenure was a mistake I think bloom may be the right guy because he doesn’t have any connection with this roster. These guys didn’t win HIM a World Series, he won’t have that sentimentality that DD seemed to have (given the contracts he handed out in hindsight) Yeah, fair enough about the actual Dombrowski. I'd just prefer Bloom had a little more of DD's take action approach with Price's current situation. You do realize that it was DD’s approach that got Price and his problematic contract in the first place, right? There is little need to hurry considering there are still numerous teams with starter needs and little in free agency to plug those needs. I think if the Sox are willing to eat 35-ish million from Price’s contract, they’d easily find a buyer. So why not wait until a team gets desperate? If no one does, trade him at the beginning of training camp and eat the 35 million. The need for speed in this context is fan-based, not situationally imposed.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 24, 2019 11:37:14 GMT -5
So is your premise that he is or is not a 20/yr pitcher?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 12:11:30 GMT -5
So is your premise that he is or is not a 20/yr pitcher? If he were a free agent today I think that $20 million/year is what he would fetch on the open market (so yes, he's a $20 million/year pitcher). He might get a 4 year deal, but more likely a 3 year deal, so if the Sox paid $33 million of the $93 million left on his deal, then in effect the trading team would be paying the going rate on what Price would be in the market as a free agent. If the Red Sox paid down more than $33 million, say $40 - $45 million, then the acquiring team would be getting a pretty damn good bargain, one that the Red Sox most certainly could extract talent for. But a team paying $20 million/year to acquire David Price isn't likely going to give the Red Sox much of value, if anything. There's only one scenario, and maybe this is viable, that I can see Price being dealt to a team who pays $60 million of his remaining contract and gives up a useful prospect, and that is if there is a bidding war for his services. It could happen, and I do think there are multiple interested parties. I do think the Twins, the White Sox (even with Keuchel), perhaps the Cardingals,and Dodgers (maybe even the Padres) have varying degrees in interest in Price, but I don't think it's going to be a mega-bidding war with teams trying to top the others' prospect offers to obtain Price. Maybe what could help is if the Sox hang onto him for spring training and another team loses a significant pitcher to injury - that could make Price really popular, adding even more teams to the mix. But of course the question is which teams out there want to add $20 million to their budget late before Opening Day?
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Post by texs31 on Dec 24, 2019 12:18:45 GMT -5
So a team shouldn't have to give something up to acquire a "properly valued" player?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 24, 2019 12:28:15 GMT -5
So a team shouldn't have to give something up to acquire a "properly valued" player? Something maybe, not much though unless there's a major bidding war. If a player projects to be worth $60m, a good baseline for what a team would be willing to pay for him would be... $60m. No one's going to want to pay $60m on the contract and kick in another $20m worth of prospects.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 12:33:12 GMT -5
So a team shouldn't have to give something up to acquire a "properly valued" player? Define "something". Are we talking Larry Lucchino's definition of "significant compensation" for letting Theo Epstein go to the Cubs where the Red Sox got Chris Carpenter (not the St. Louis pitcher) for him, he of the 2 to 10 K/BB ratio in the 6 innings he contributed for the Sox? Or are you talking about a prospect with a real chance to be useful or a player off the major league roster they can use to plug into the rotation? All teams know that the Red Sox are looking to shed $. It's no secret. Unless there's a big bidding war, why would a team knowing that the Sox have to shed a big contract give up anything significant for Price? Especially if they are paying him what he'd be on the open market?
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Post by texs31 on Dec 24, 2019 13:28:33 GMT -5
So a team shouldn't have to give something up to acquire a "properly valued" player? Define "something". Are we talking Larry Lucchino's definition of "significant compensation" for letting Theo Epstein go to the Cubs where the Red Sox got Chris Carpenter (not the St. Louis pitcher) for him, he of the 2 to 10 K/BB ratio in the 6 innings he contributed for the Sox? Or are you talking about a prospect with a real chance to be useful or a player off the major league roster they can use to plug into the rotation? All teams know that the Red Sox are looking to shed $. It's no secret. Unless there's a big bidding war, why would a team knowing that the Sox have to shed a big contract give up anything significant for Price? Especially if they are paying him what he'd be on the open market? I'm not even talking about Price anymore. But, in this case, you said that Price at 3/20 (which you've now confirmed you feel is his value - as do I) is "like a free agent" so a team shouldn't have to give anything up for him. I don't understand that logic at all? He's NOT a free agent which is why a team SHOULD have to give something up for him (especially if there are no more free agents at that value). Now if you feel that the Sox would have to pay his contract down even more than that, then you are saying that he's NOT a 3/20 pitcher (maybe that's right, maybe it's wrong). Either way, it has nothing to do with him being "like a free agent". Otherwise, wouldn't any player who has a contract that matches his value be "like a free agent" and, therefore, shouldn't return much?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 14:16:19 GMT -5
Define "something". Are we talking Larry Lucchino's definition of "significant compensation" for letting Theo Epstein go to the Cubs where the Red Sox got Chris Carpenter (not the St. Louis pitcher) for him, he of the 2 to 10 K/BB ratio in the 6 innings he contributed for the Sox? Or are you talking about a prospect with a real chance to be useful or a player off the major league roster they can use to plug into the rotation? All teams know that the Red Sox are looking to shed $. It's no secret. Unless there's a big bidding war, why would a team knowing that the Sox have to shed a big contract give up anything significant for Price? Especially if they are paying him what he'd be on the open market? I'm not even talking about Price anymore. But, in this case, you said that Price at 3/20 (which you've now confirmed you feel is his value - as do I) is "like a free agent" so a team shouldn't have to give anything up for him. I don't understand that logic at all? He's NOT a free agent which is why a team SHOULD have to give something up for him (especially if there are no more free agents at that value). Now if you feel that the Sox would have to pay his contract down even more than that, then you are saying that he's NOT a 3/20 pitcher (maybe that's right, maybe it's wrong). Either way, it has nothing to do with him being "like a free agent". Otherwise, wouldn't any player who has a contract that matches his value be "like a free agent" and, therefore, shouldn't return much? If the Red Sox traded David Price to LA, the Red Sox would likely get a player back for him, probably AJ Pollock, which in essence would mean a $17.25 million annual savings for the Red Sox. Plus Pollock's arrival would give the Red Sox a JBJ replacement for when he gets dealt. Frankly, I'm probably in the minority here, but I like the idea of bringing this CT guy who grew up not that far away from me, to Boston if they absolutely HAVE to trade Price . He's actually had average to above average OPS+ figures the past three years, and when he was healthy he was really a good player. Don't know if he'll ever stay healthy like that again, so it would be a good idea to get a functional 4th OF, but Pollock is probably the return for David Price. I read that somewhere, not sure where. I think the thought was that if the Sox made a deal with the Padres they'd have to take back Wil Myers or if they made a deal with the Cards, they'd have to take back Matt Carpenter. So to say they wouldn't get anything for Price is inaccurate. They'd get JBJ's replacement CF allowing JBJ to be traded away with a replacement already on the roster (I suppose Betts could shift to CF with Pollock going into RF, too). But getting prospects of note to supplement the deal beyond Pollock? Doubtful. It would have to be an extreme bidding war for that to happen. So what that he's not a free agent? If the Dodgers have to be on the hook for $17.25 million extra payroll to get Price, they're not going to pay much more than Pollock, who they want gone anyways, to get him. Unless other teams are bidding upwards in talent to get him, why bother? No team wants to pay free agent money and then surplus talent on top of that.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 24, 2019 14:31:41 GMT -5
A team that is willing to pay $20 million/year out of his $31 million/year contract will probably look at a Price acquisition as basically a free agent signing and why should they have to give up talent to do that? Bringing this back as it's the point of my confusion. Forget Price for a second. Take any player who has 3 years left on a contract that is paying him his "market rate" (bc that's what 3/20 would be for, bringing him back now, Price). You're saying a team shouldn't have to give up talent to do that? I'm not following that logic. If they could just go out and sign someone, they would. But they can't (not anymore unless they don't agree on what type of player Price is/will be). That's why he's not at all "a free agent signing". To get a player who is under contract, you have to pay commensurate value as long as that contract is not burdensome. IF 3/20 is the going rate for a Price type pitcher than the contract would not be burdensome (assuming Sox buy it down to that). Now, if you don't agree that he's worth 3/20, then a team shouldn't have to give up equal value. But that's a different discussion.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 15:04:10 GMT -5
A team that is willing to pay $20 million/year out of his $31 million/year contract will probably look at a Price acquisition as basically a free agent signing and why should they have to give up talent to do that? Bringing this back as it's the point of my confusion. Forget Price for a second. Take any player who has 3 years left on a contract that is paying him his "market rate" (bc that's what 3/20 would be for, bringing him back now, Price). You're saying a team shouldn't have to give up talent to do that? I'm not following that logic. If they could just go out and sign someone, they would. But they can't (not anymore unless they don't agree on what type of player Price is/will be). That's why he's not at all "a free agent signing". To get a player who is under contract, you have to pay commensurate value as long as that contract is not burdensome. IF 3/20 is the going rate for a Price type pitcher than the contract would not be burdensome (assuming Sox buy it down to that). Now, if you don't agree that he's worth 3/20, then a team shouldn't have to give up equal value. But that's a different discussion. Actually, Pollock would probably be the value. He's not a nobody. He is a contract the Dodgers don't want and he makes getting Price much cheaper for them. The Red Sox are trading Price because they have to. Teams know this. They know the Red Sox cannot accomplish their goal if they hang onto Price. The question is how many teams will trip over themselves to get Price. If there's a lot, then yeah, perhaps the bidding does return more than a contract the other team doesn't want. I get that you're saying, well he's not a free agent, so a team should have to pay the Red Sox for the right to get Price, and in a way that's correct. Like I said, guys like Carpenter, Myers, and Pollock aren't nothing. They're serviceable big leaguers, albeit contracts their teams don't want that the Red Sox would be required to take as a way of reducing what Price costs as everybody is in agreement that he's not valued as a $31 million/year pitcher. But beyond that, why should a team spend minor league talent to get a guy they know the other team has to get rid of? My guess is that if Bloom could have extracted significant minor league talent for Price, he's already be wearing a different uniform by now. I mean, why pay the same $ AND give up talent when you could sign Ryu or Keuchel? They're off the board now, so I guess that would back up your point about the value of Price going up with no other free agents at that level. But unless there's a big bidding war I don't really see teams going that crazy to get Price. I guess I would view it this way from another team: If I sign a free agent for about $18 - $20 million I assume the risk that I've wasted money signing him because he's either a bust or gets hurt. Well if a team picks up Price, they're spending the same money, and taking that same risk - AND throwing in significant minor league talent?? I'm not sure many (or any) teams want to take that monetary risk and then add legit prospects to that risk. My guess is that Price winds up with the Dodgers for Pollock and maybe a fringy minor leaguer, but nobody of consequence. The value for the Sox would be that JBJ is replaced without the Sox having to spend additional money to find JBJ's replacement. Eventually Pollock could be an overpaid, but useful #4 OF once Duran is ready (or somebody else is acquired when the Red Sox can spend again in 2021).
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 24, 2019 15:06:27 GMT -5
This is all about supply and demand.
If Price was a free agent and would sign for 3/60 yeah you'd just need him to agree with you. But if multiple teams offer that then guess what? You'll have to up your bid to acquire him.
Its exactly the same with a trade, except the surplus cost goes to the team and not the player. If you get Boston to pay down Price's salary (or JBJ, or whoever) to his market value AND there are multiple teams who want to acquire him at that rate, you need to throw something in to win the bidding. In this case, that is talent.
Based on the earlier article it doesn't sound like there are multiple teams bidding at that rate yet, though. Or Boston doesn't want to pay the salary down that far.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 24, 2019 15:07:44 GMT -5
I wish the Sox matched up better with the Twins in terms of making a deal. They have the lineup to make a deep post season run, but desperately need starters. They also have plenty of payroll room to take on Price's full salary. Our entice them attach on candidate, Bennentendi, is not an up grade over the outfielders they have though. In potential maybe, but not performance. The Twins have Royce Lewis ready for a middle infield role so maybe the Sox could get Luis Arraez to play 2B for a Price/ Chavis / Duran ( future OF depth) package. Twins take on all of Price's salary. Hmm..Maybe they could match up after all if the Twins really want to win in 2020. I don’t think the Twins would part with him but you never know. I like Trevor Larnach Coming back in a Price deal with the Twins.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 24, 2019 15:15:50 GMT -5
The real question is how many times in a five minute span can I refresh MLBTRADERUMORS, Twitter, The Athletic, and various other sources hoping for something new to have happened, or some movement to have occurred one way or the other.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2019 15:57:10 GMT -5
I wish the Sox matched up better with the Twins in terms of making a deal. They have the lineup to make a deep post season run, but desperately need starters. They also have plenty of payroll room to take on Price's full salary. Our entice them attach on candidate, Bennentendi, is not an up grade over the outfielders they have though. In potential maybe, but not performance. The Twins have Royce Lewis ready for a middle infield role so maybe the Sox could get Luis Arraez to play 2B for a Price/ Chavis / Duran ( future OF depth) package. Twins take on all of Price's salary. Hmm..Maybe they could match up after all if the Twins really want to win in 2020. You're fantasizing. Arraez is a future batting champion, perhaps as soon as 2020. The Twins would have to be absolutely moronic to deal Arraez for the right to pay big $ for David Price. Sure they could use Price, but there's no way they're parting with anything of great value, particularly that guy.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 24, 2019 16:16:22 GMT -5
I wish the Sox matched up better with the Twins in terms of making a deal. They have the lineup to make a deep post season run, but desperately need starters. They also have plenty of payroll room to take on Price's full salary. Our entice them attach on candidate, Bennentendi, is not an up grade over the outfielders they have though. In potential maybe, but not performance. The Twins have Royce Lewis ready for a middle infield role so maybe the Sox could get Luis Arraez to play 2B for a Price/ Chavis / Duran ( future OF depth) package. Twins take on all of Price's salary. Hmm..Maybe they could match up after all if the Twins really want to win in 2020. I don’t think the Twins would part with him but you never know. I like Trevor Larnach Coming back in a Price deal with the Twins. Larnich would be a good pick up and is another reason why Bennentendi will gain us no leverage as a trade chip with them.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 24, 2019 16:47:24 GMT -5
I wish the Sox matched up better with the Twins in terms of making a deal. They have the lineup to make a deep post season run, but desperately need starters. They also have plenty of payroll room to take on Price's full salary. Our entice them attach on candidate, Bennentendi, is not an up grade over the outfielders they have though. In potential maybe, but not performance. The Twins have Royce Lewis ready for a middle infield role so maybe the Sox could get Luis Arraez to play 2B for a Price/ Chavis / Duran ( future OF depth) package. Twins take on all of Price's salary. Hmm..Maybe they could match up after all if the Twins really want to win in 2020. You're fantasizing. Arraez is a future batting champion, perhaps as soon as 2020. The Twins would have to be absolutely moronic to deal Arraez for the right to pay big $ for David Price. Sure they could use Price, but there's no way they're parting with anything of great value, particularly that guy. Sure, many of my trade ideas are off the wall. But I have seen some crazy deals happen over my 50 years of following baseball. The key points though are that the Twins need a starter(s) and have middle infield depth. If they want to be the next Washington, it is going to cost them some of that depth. No more top tier freebies on the FA market. Also, if the best offer on the table for Price is AJ Pollack, the Twins need to be able to top that. A fringe prospect will not get it done.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2019 16:48:31 GMT -5
You do realize that it was DD’s approach that got Price and his problematic contract in the first place, right? There is little need to hurry considering there are still numerous teams with starter needs and little in free agency to plug those needs. I think if the Sox are willing to eat 35-ish million from Price’s contract, they’d easily find a buyer. So why not wait until a team gets desperate? If no one does, trade him at the beginning of training camp and eat the 35 million. The need for speed in this context is fan-based, not situationally imposed. I always liked Dombrowski's approach. Sox need a starter he gets his guy. Closer? Gets one of the best in baseball. He may not have always got the best value, but he always got his guy. Even the Sale contact that everyone hated looks pretty good right now. He had his flaws, but he did almost everything he was asked to do. Bloom was presumably brought in to get under the tax threshold. All he's done so far is spend $10m on two scrap heap guys and screw around with what currently looks like a paint by numbers salary dump. Like I said he could be a genius for waiting it out, but the reason not to wait is because teams can move on to plan B and Price's market could dry up. The risk/reward isn't there to justify dragging this out until spring training, or next week for that matter. I don't know why you see this as screwing around. Bloom's calculation may well be that Price is worth X to the Red Sox, factoring in both his potential contributions as a player and team budget considerations. If he can get >X in a trade he'll take it; if he can't, he won't make the trade. The "risk" is that they go into next season with Price in the starting rotation, and Bloom may see that as a perfectly acceptable outcome. On the face of it there's nothing mysterious about this situation.
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Post by caseytins on Dec 24, 2019 16:56:20 GMT -5
My target with the Twins would be one of Graterol or Balazovic. There are still several teams interested. 6-8 overall. Bloom is playing this correctly by waiting it out.
Twins, White Sox, Padres, Cards, Angels, Dodgers, Brewers all have interest still..
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 24, 2019 17:20:23 GMT -5
Jeez , I just took a look at Pollack's contract. Next 3 yrs are 12m, 15m and 10m. That is not bad. The Sox would then have the option of dealing JBJ ( my favorite player) or spin Pollack elsewhere.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 24, 2019 17:27:30 GMT -5
I always liked Dombrowski's approach. Sox need a starter he gets his guy. Closer? Gets one of the best in baseball. He may not have always got the best value, but he always got his guy. Even the Sale contact that everyone hated looks pretty good right now. He had his flaws, but he did almost everything he was asked to do. Bloom was presumably brought in to get under the tax threshold. All he's done so far is spend $10m on two scrap heap guys and screw around with what currently looks like a paint by numbers salary dump. Like I said he could be a genius for waiting it out, but the reason not to wait is because teams can move on to plan B and Price's market could dry up. The risk/reward isn't there to justify dragging this out until spring training, or next week for that matter. I don't know why you see this as screwing around. Bloom's calculation may well be that Price is worth X to the Red Sox, factoring in both his potential contributions as a player and team budget considerations. If he can get >X in a trade he'll take it; if he can't, he won't make the trade. The "risk" is that they go into next season with Price in the starting rotation, and Bloom may see that as a perfectly acceptable outcome. On the face of it there's nothing mysterious about this situation. It's indeed anything but a paint-by-numbers salary dump, because Price is still a #2 starter, just one with an ace's contract.
Bloom has two options which exist on a sliding scale that covers all points in between.
One is to have the other team be responsible for only enough salary to allow the Sox to get under the cap by also trading JBJ (and maybe Hembree), and thus get back the best possible prospect package. That would mean going dirt-cheap this year at a number of positions of need. To simplify things, that amount (c. $20M AAV) also appears to be roughly what Price would get on the open market.
The other extreme is to get nothing back except an org guy or two (for show), while having the other team take on as much salary as possible.
What teams are willing to offer depends very much on their own situation. A wealthy team with a thin farm system will eat more salary in order to get him for free, for instance.
The more teams that are in play, the more complex the decision. As guys come off the market, the easier it is to decide what to do.
Furthermore, assuming that the number of teams who want to acquire a pitcher of Price's quality exceeds the number of such pitchers available, it is quite likely going to be the case that the return for Price will keep going up as guys come off the market, and teams start to fear being shut out.
So waiting is good two different ways.
Personally, I'd like to see them create enough salary space to sign someone like Eric Thames to play 1B, and trade for someone like Ender Inciarte to play CF. IOW, try to win this year by filling those positions with first-division talent. But if they got back a surprisingly good prospect (1st-roud pick EQ) while having to, say, fill the OF spot with someone like Cesar Puello and 1B internally (Chavis, Dalbec), that wouldn't suck, if it means they can re-sign Mookie a year from now.
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