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MLB plotting playoff expansion — with reality TV twist
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2020 12:31:51 GMT -5
TO add to my basketball point:
They just aren't similar. The basketball regular season is important because seeding in basketball is so important. The fourth-best team in baskeball in the East will almost always lose to the best team in the East. The fourth-best team in the American League will beat the best team in the American League at least 45% of the time. Having an upstart team in the World Series that got hot at the right time every so often is fun - that's true in any sport. Having the best teams rarely in the World Series is bad.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 11, 2020 12:47:09 GMT -5
Totally agreed. Anyone has a chance at the WS if they make the playoffs. This isn’t remotely close to the same case in the NBA. You’re randomizing the WS distribution and awarding teams that don’t deserve one a very real chance at upsetting the best teams. I don’t think letting the higher seed teams choose their opponents offsets that enough.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 11, 2020 12:49:21 GMT -5
The NBA regular season is a complete joke, do you really want that? It won't ever be like that, because the sports are fundamentally different. You know who's overwhelmingly likely to be in the NBA championship before they play the first regular season game. People weren't giving the Nats a real shot at the World Series even after they won NLDS! The NBA regular season doesn't matter that much because the seeding doesn't matter that much and most of the teams don't have a chance anyway. In baseball, seeding potentially can be a big deal, and if it is, that creates more meaningful races and games during the regular season. The bottom line is that baseball has never had to compete harder for the attention of its fans, and fans pay attention when there's something to play for. Expanded playoffs gives more teams more things to play for. I agree to this, but at some point, I don't want overly mediocre teams getting hot and winning a championship with 77 wins. The NBA is fundamentally flawed and why less teams and less playoff berths are better for the sport. The 23-31 Magic are never going to win a championship, let alone the 4th seed in each conference. I do like an occasional odd story, but baseball does give a real chance to .500 and below teams who make it in a chance to claim a ring and I think that's really a spoiler on the year. It's fun when a sub-.500 team gets in with the current system because it means a division was just woeful. This would be the potential norm if they expand it further.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 11, 2020 12:50:05 GMT -5
TO add to my basketball point: They just aren't similar. The basketball regular season is important because seeding in basketball is so important. The fourth-best team in baskeball in the East will almost always lose to the best team in the East. The fourth-best team in the American League will beat the best team in the American League at least 45% of the time. Having an upstart team in the World Series that got hot at the right time every so often is fun - that's true in any sport. Having the best teams rarely in the World Series is bad. I agree with your baseball points but not your basketball points. Seeding in basketball (and thus the regular season) doesn't matter for the top teams, who pretty much always easily win their first round series. Seeding only matters for the decent teams who are looking to avoid first round match-ups with the top teams, and those decent teams are just going to lose in the 2nd round anyway. You could easily cut out the entire first round of the playoffs without it having any real affect on who's going to win. That's a pretty broken system in my book, though the fix is far harder than in baseball, because no simple format change is going to make more than a tiny handful of teams really competitive.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2020 12:56:00 GMT -5
See, I think the opposite about basketball. When you can expand the playoffs so that you have to be decent to make them and engaging fans of those teams, and do so without watering down the quality of play in the later rounds, that feels like a win-win. A 45-37 team isn't going to win the title, but they can give a lot of enjoyment to their fans in pushing for the 6th seed, giving the #3 seed a run in a playoff series, that sort of thing. And once every great while, things will come together for that 45-37 team, making that run through the playoffs feel all the more special.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 11, 2020 13:02:14 GMT -5
The underdogs lose so often in basketball that having 2 play against each other first round is actually a good thing, because odds are that one team will at least be playing good ball heading into a series against a better team.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 13:16:50 GMT -5
The NBA regular season is a complete joke, do you really want that? It won't ever be like that, because the sports are fundamentally different. You know who's overwhelmingly likely to be in the NBA championship before they play the first regular season game. People weren't giving the Nats a real shot at the World Series even after they won NLDS! The NBA regular season doesn't matter that much because the seeding doesn't matter that much and most of the teams don't have a chance anyway. In baseball, seeding potentially can be a big deal, and if it is, that creates more meaningful races and games during the regular season. The bottom line is that baseball has never had to compete harder for the attention of its fans, and fans pay attention when there's something to play for. Expanded playoffs gives more teams more things to play for. It'll also help with the tanking issue that MLB has. I'll take the trade off of one 2005 Cardinals team winning every 10 years for more interest across the league personally. I love the funky ideas. Games are too long. Got to find a way to end them in extra innings. The strikezone is too flawed for human eyes, so MLB is experimenting with a ROBO zone. Manfred is trying a lot of things that are good for the game. By contrast, Selig took a blind eye to steriod use for a decade. He had access to instant replay ever since the late 90's and did nothing about that. I like progressive thinking commisioners.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 13:18:27 GMT -5
Baseball will take that trade of more casual fans/more revenue/more entertaining product on the field come playoff time. Getting more casual fans to watch it is exactly what brings in more revenue. The diehards will always be there, despite them not agreeing with the way they think baseball should be played. I welcome any revenue making ideas Mafred has, even the crappy ones because that's what's going to ensure that baseball doesn't become a regional or dying sport in my lifetime and that's the only thing that's important in my eyes. I'll never stop watching the greatest game on earth, baseball. No, the diehards will not always be there. I quit the NHL, I've quit MLB before. You're the complete anomaly of a die hard fan then. I can promise you that. I'll be watching.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 11, 2020 13:19:54 GMT -5
I am with Bauer. This proposal would make September games even less meaningful. I would have zero interest in watching a show where playoff teams pick their opponents and likely wouldn't even watch earlier playoff rounds, until they get to the respective League championships. The NBA is the only one of the 4 major professional sports with a competent commissioner.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 11, 2020 13:31:36 GMT -5
Unimaginably awful idea.
We have a huge amount of regular-season data. It would be "fun" to look at all of the teams that made the post-season, and how often they lost 2 out of 3 at home to teams that weren't quite good enough to make it.. I put "fun" in scare quotes because the results would actually be terrifying.
An even bigger problem: even if you stagger the start of the post-season by a day as they do at present, you have 3 games, then 6 including 3 elimination games, and then likely 4 to 6 elimination games. (The alternative, inserting extra days off, is even worse.) Excuse me: it's been years since I missed watching a post-season elimination game. Is there any other sport that has 2 or 3 elimination games happening simultaneously?
Doesn't it defeat the entire purpose of having more elimination games if fans can't watch them all?
The biggest indication that this was devised by clueless idiots is that they skipped over the intervening idea of having the top two teams get byes, and having two pairs of wild card series in each league. That's actually not terrible, because there's 4 games max in a day as at present. It's still awful (10 teams of 30 making the post-season is absolutely as far as you can go), but not unimaginably so. It doesn't make an ardent fan say "I would have no interest in watching a post-season with that format."
I want to see the DS expand to 7 games (with only one travel day) to increase the odds that the best teams play. And I like the idea of turning the two WC games into 3-game series all at home, starting with a double-header, and giving a game in hand to the better team if they finished, say, 5 or more games ahead of their opponent. That adds as many as a dozen games to the post-season (but only one day, because I'd also take a travel day out of the CS), some of them very high-stakes, and significantly improves the odds that the best teams advance.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 11, 2020 13:34:24 GMT -5
If expansion to 7 teams is a must, I'd like to see a tweak: give all three division winners the "bye" straight to the ALDS, and make the four WC teams play two rounds of single game eliminations (3 games total in each league). The best WC team vs the worst, and the #2 v #3 seed. The winners move on to the next single elimination game against each other, with the winner earning a trip to the ALDS. At the conclusion of that game, the #1 division winner will choose their ALDS opponent (likely the WC winner) live. Then, expand the ALDS from 5 to 7 games.
This format would give more teams contending September baseball, it'd put even more importance on winning your division, and it'd make the ALDS less flukey (5 games vs 7). It waters down the Wild Card for sure, but the trade off is worth it imo while understanding the arguments of those opposed to it entirely. There are still Yankees fans who complain about 04 because the wild card Red Sox team wouldn't have even made the playoffs under the old format.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 13:40:43 GMT -5
I am with Bauer. This proposal would make September games even less meaningful. I would have zero interest in watching a show where playoff teams pick their opponents and likely wouldn't even watch earlier playoff rounds, until they get to the respective League championships. The NBA is the only one of the 4 major professional sports with a competent commissioner. The NBA commissioner just made a proposal to make a in-season tournament in the middle of the NBA season to cut down on the regular season. Like every league is trying to get more innovative here. www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2019/12/20/nba-proposal-in-season-tournament-one-million-dollar-player-bonus/2717026001/If baseball doesn't catch up to these creative ideas, they're going to be left behind. Turn into a regional sport. It's really that simple.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 13:45:39 GMT -5
TO add to my basketball point: They just aren't similar. The basketball regular season is important because seeding in basketball is so important. The fourth-best team in baskeball in the East will almost always lose to the best team in the East. The fourth-best team in the American League will beat the best team in the American League at least 45% of the time. Having an upstart team in the World Series that got hot at the right time every so often is fun - that's true in any sport. Having the best teams rarely in the World Series is bad.The current system almost never puts the two best teams in the World Series! I don't see how you can get the two best teams to the World Series on any kind of regular basis without a seeding system that heavily favors the best teams.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 11, 2020 13:58:08 GMT -5
BA ran a chart showing the number of wins needed to make the post-season in each league, going back to 2001.
The average wins for the 7th team in a league is 83.7 +/- 2.5. The median and mode are 83.
79: 2 80: 2 81: 3 82: 3 83: 10 84: 3 85: 5 86: 6 87: 2 89: 2
The baseball season is 162 games long. That's double the length of any other sport. The easier it becomes to make the post-season, the less important every regular season game becomes.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 14:23:52 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2020 14:27:05 GMT -5
TO add to my basketball point: They just aren't similar. The basketball regular season is important because seeding in basketball is so important. The fourth-best team in baskeball in the East will almost always lose to the best team in the East. The fourth-best team in the American League will beat the best team in the American League at least 45% of the time. Having an upstart team in the World Series that got hot at the right time every so often is fun - that's true in any sport. Having the best teams rarely in the World Series is bad.The current system almost never puts the two best teams in the World Series! I don't see how you can get the two best teams to the World Series on any kind of regular basis without a seeding system that heavily favors the best teams. The more teams that get added to the playoffs, the less likely the best teams are in the WS. I prefer a single World Series. I could accept the divisional winners and championship series per league. I despise the Wild Card and I hate the 2nd Wild Card ten times more. This proposal is a total joke and everyone would finally see it when there's a 70-92 WS champion.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2020 14:27:21 GMT -5
The best part of the playoff system is that it doesn't reward the gross incompetence of teams like the Mariners with token playoff berths and opportunities they don't deserve. Since the Mariners last made the playoffs the Marlins and Royals have both won as many titles as the Yankees and more than the Dodgers.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 14:30:26 GMT -5
The best part of the playoff system is that it doesn't reward the gross incompetence of teams like the Mariners with token playoff berths and opportunities they don't deserve. Since the Mariners last made the playoffs the Marlins, and Royals have both won as many titles as the Yankees and more than the Dodgers. Tell that to the Mariners fan, who probably doesn't see it that way.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 11, 2020 14:31:32 GMT -5
BTW, I love the idea of the top seed picking its opponent, because it increases the odds that the best teams advance.
Because of injuries and trades, the roster you bring into the post-season is not the one that created your W/L record and hence your seeding. There was at least one year (which we all remember vividly) where the WC was not just the best team in baseball, but one of the best teams in the history of baseball. And in the current formulation, where there is no rule against playing a team in your division in the first round, the 2004 Red Sox and Yankees would have met in the DS (assuming the Sox beat the A's in the WC game). With the pick-your-poison option, the Yankees would have been able to avoid us until the CS.
So, after the WC game, have the team with the best record pick their opponent from the remaining three. That eliminates the possibility that two teams that are clearly the best meet the in the DS.
After expansion to 32, I would have 4 8-team divisions (each split geographically for scheduling purposes only). The four division winners get a bye. In each league, the runner-up with the best record chooses its opponent from the next three runners-up. You then have four WC series like the current crazy proposal. In each league, the team with the best record then picks its opponent from the three remaining teams, for a 7-game DS.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2020 14:32:47 GMT -5
The best part of the playoff system is that it doesn't reward the gross incompetence of teams like the Mariners with token playoff berths and opportunities they don't deserve. Since the Mariners last made the playoffs the Marlins, and Royals have both won as many titles as the Yankees and more than the Dodgers. Tell that to the Mariners fan, who probably doesn't see it that way. I mean, it sucks that he roots for an incompetent team? They don't lack resources, they've just been poorly run.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 11, 2020 14:37:52 GMT -5
Tell that to the Mariners fan, who probably doesn't see it that way. I mean, it sucks that he roots for an incompetent team? They don't lack resources, they've just been poorly run. They're a midmarket team, by all definitions. Their playoff aspirations are already trimmed down to the margins by that standard. Low payroll teams have even less margin for error. The top payroll teams should be there 75 percent of the time if they're spending money correctly. That's not always the case, but the system should allow for more parity and this is one of the best ways to combat that.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2020 14:50:33 GMT -5
I mean, it sucks that he roots for an incompetent team? They don't lack resources, they've just been poorly run. They're a midmarket team, by all definitions. Their playoff aspirations are already trimmed down to the margins by that standard. Low payroll teams have even less margin for error. The top payroll teams should be there 75 percent of the time if they're spending money correctly. That's not always the case, but the system should allow for more parity and this is one of the best ways to combat that. They could become Rays fans, who do far more with far less. They could use the fans.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2020 14:53:56 GMT -5
The A's have made the playoffs eight times since the Mariners last did so, despite playing in the same division and having a lower payroll. The Reds, Pirates, and Orioles have also done so three times. There are a lot of reasons, some good, some bad, some that I don't agree with but an sympathetic to, to want to change the playoff structure in Major League Baseball, but "it's not fair to the Seattle Mariners" isn't one of them.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 14:54:55 GMT -5
Tell that to the Mariners fan, who probably doesn't see it that way. I mean, it sucks that he roots for an incompetent team? They don't lack resources, they've just been poorly run. Yeah, and what would really be the harm if somewhere in that run of bad management, Felix Hernandez got to start a postseason game? Think of how unfair it would be to all those Seattle fans to have to sit through that, knowing they team didn't really earn it. Thankfully they were spared that hardship.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2020 14:55:54 GMT -5
Just start the playoffs in April.
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