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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2020 21:39:46 GMT -5
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Post by agastonguay13 on Jun 11, 2020 8:49:14 GMT -5
So realistically, who's got a shot of falling to them at 89 and beyond now that they've found themselves an abundance of rich stuff to throw at these next 3 picks?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 9:00:11 GMT -5
So realistically, who's got a shot of falling to them at 89 and beyond now that they've found themselves an abundance of rich stuff to throw at these next 3 picks? I think it's too early to know, given the 52 pick gap. My guess is we'll see some bigger bonus HS players come off the board early (Jared Kelley to the Orioles maybe?) then a huge run on college players probably as we get into the later half of the second round and into the third round. By the end of the second comp round, we should have an idea of the HS players available.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 11, 2020 9:01:02 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2020 9:25:15 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 9:29:07 GMT -5
I think they had enough to drink last night
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Post by Coreno on Jun 11, 2020 10:18:56 GMT -5
I think they had enough to drink last night We get it. You hate the pick. Move on.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 10:32:01 GMT -5
I think they had enough to drink last night We get it. You hate the pick. Move on. I'll move on, unlike red sox middle infielders stuck in the same level year after year. And I'm on to round 3
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 11, 2020 10:39:25 GMT -5
I'd have to think with the savings on the Yorke pick, that some high school guys that fall due to signability with be the targets, but I think they may have some JUCO guys in mind. This is a relatively strong JUCO pitching class. Connor Phillip, Beck Way, Dalton Fowler, and Jake Smith are some names to monitor.
Then there is a trio of San Jacito pitchers, Brandon Birdsall, Mitchell Parker, and Luke Little. Little is a sort of an oxymoronic mythological lefty that stands 6'8 and posted a video showing him 105 mph a few months back.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:17:40 GMT -5
We get it. You hate the pick. Move on. I'll move on, unlike red sox middle infielders stuck in the same level year after year. And I'm on to round 3 But no response to me disproving that idea in the other thread? How interesting.. Also, do you think that other teams have a 100% success rate with their picks? The Red Sox are an above-average drafting franchise, I think you're so focused on the negative stuff that you aren't really paying attention to how difficult the task they're taking is and how often other teams are failing too.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 11:29:36 GMT -5
Yesterday in the general draft thread, I threw out a few financial scenarios in the case that the Red Sox went underslot at #17. I used $3.0M as the underslot value, but now that we know the pick, lets play with a different figure. What will Yorke's $ bonus look like? Some estimates are as low as $1.5M. In a shocking scenario, lets set the upper range to $3.0M. I've read he was considered a tough sign in the 2nd round which tops out at basically $2.0M in the beginning of the round. I'd be thrilled if he signed for $2.0M, but lets go with $2.3M for this exercise, leaving basically $3.0M to spend on our three picks today after taking into account the 5% overage on the entire pool. So the math from here is pretty simple but here are a few scenarios: 1. $2.2M on 3rd rounder, near slot on 4th and 5th rounders: Basically, they come to a verbal agreement with someone they really like overnight, hope that no other teams are willing to match this figure, and then hope the player drops to Round 3 (with the player settling for nothing less than $2.2M in conversations w/ other teams). Of course, there are other teams with plenty of bonus $ to match an offer of say $2.2M, so this scenario would require that there are a handful of guys the Sox are willing to offer $2.2M. 2. $1.5M on 3rd rounder, $1.2M on 4th rounder, near slot on 5th rounder: Nab 2 HS guys they covet; but don't completely lock into the HS demographic and allow to sign a college guy they like. If that college guy is available earlier and they need to pounce (because they can assume HS guys available in rounds 3-4 are more likely to drop to 5), then you can basically swap the bonus amounts for the 4th and 5th rounders here. 3. $1.0M on 3rd rounder, $1.0M on 4th rounder, $1.0M on 5th rounder: Distribute among the players nearly equally, but probably assumes HS player in each round which is a bold draft. - I wonder a little if the overall draft strategy is somewhat guided by the UDFA projections. Perhaps the Sox think there are a number of college players, undervalued and signable as free agents. If so, perhaps they view these draft 4 picks as their only means of tapping into the HS demographic and coming away with 3 (or more) HS players w/ upside. - I'll probably drop a list of my most coveted players as the 3rd round is getting underway. I'll say now though that the guy who I'd be thrilled about is Kevin Parada....chance for a nice hit/power combo and has tools to stick at C.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 11:40:26 GMT -5
I'll move on, unlike red sox middle infielders stuck in the same level year after year. And I'm on to round 3 But no response to me disproving that idea in the other thread? How interesting.. Also, do you think that other teams have a 100% success rate with their picks? The Red Sox are an above-average drafting franchise, I think you're so focused on the negative stuff that you aren't really paying attention to how difficult the task they're taking is and how often other teams are failing too. Sorry I made you feel left out, I responded to you. Yeah, the sox have hit on other positions, but when it comes to middle infielders, its like Belichick and 2nd round corners.
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Post by rismith on Jun 11, 2020 11:46:14 GMT -5
Honestly don't love the Yorke pick but rather than be critical...focusing on the positive. If they could nab a JC pitcher like Little (6'8" with a huge arm and a lot of potential) and maybe another JC pitcher like Beck Way (6'5" and with a frame that can hold a lot more weight)....then sign a number of college guys UDFAs....it wouldn't be a bad draft. The loss of the 2nd rounder reverberates through this draft and changed the whole strategy. No way they wouldnt have been able to take Yorke in the second round if they had a second rounder and so they essentially did just that and are hoping they end up with a better draft using more money to essentially (practically) have picks in round 2-5.
Just hurts because even though we all know the hit rate is low on 1st rounders...we dream on those guys because of hype. Would have liked PCA to patrol CF in the years to come.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:54:51 GMT -5
Yesterday in the general draft thread, I threw out a few financial scenarios in the case that the Red Sox went underslot at #17. I used $3.0M as the underslot value, but now that we know the pick, lets play with a different figure. What will Yorke's $ bonus look like? Some estimates are as low as $1.5M. In a shocking scenario, lets set the upper range to $3.0M. I've read he was considered a tough sign in the 2nd round which tops out at basically $2.0M in the beginning of the round. I'd be thrilled if he signed for $2.0M, but lets go with $2.3M for this exercise, leaving basically $3.0M to spend on our three picks today after taking into account the 5% overage on the entire pool. So the math from here is pretty simple but here are a few scenarios: 1. $2.2M on 3rd rounder, near slot on 4th and 5th rounders: Basically, they come to a verbal agreement with someone they really like overnight, hope that no other teams are willing to match this figure, and then hope the player drops to Round 3 (with the player settling for nothing less than $2.2M in conversations w/ other teams). Of course, there are other teams with plenty of bonus $ to match an offer of say $2.2M, so this scenario would require that there are a handful of guys the Sox are willing to offer $2.2M. 2. $1.5M on 3rd rounder, $1.2M on 4th rounder, near slot on 5th rounder: Nab 2 HS guys they covet; but don't completely lock into the HS demographic and allow to sign a college guy they like. If that college guy is available earlier and they need to pounce (because they can assume HS guys available in rounds 3-4 are more likely to drop to 5), then you can basically swap the bonus amounts for the 4th and 5th rounders here. 3. $1.0M on 3rd rounder, $1.0M on 4th rounder, $1.0M on 5th rounder: Distribute among the players nearly equally, but probably assumes HS player in each round which is a bold draft. - I wonder a little if the overall draft strategy is somewhat guided by the UDFA projections. Perhaps the Sox think there are a number of college players, undervalued and signable as free agents. If so, perhaps they view these draft 4 picks as their only means of tapping into the HS demographic and coming away with 3 (or more) HS players w/ upside. - I'll probably drop a list of my most coveted players as the 3rd round is getting underway. I'll say now though that the guy who I'd be thrilled about is Kevin Parada....chance for a nice hit/power combo and has tools to stick at C. Obviously all of this depends on what is available, but I'd say either option 3 OR tweaking option 2 to go 1.5m/1.5m/50k. Your point about the draft being the best opportunity to tap into the HS market makes sense.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2020 12:19:32 GMT -5
So I'm the first to say I went "who" when Red Sox picked. But the level of contempt shocks me. Chase came from a GREAT minor league progressive looking team. He seems to seek input from everyone within his department. He cares and wants to stock and keep stock our minor league system.
With all that said, I suspect this was a tough call. From everything garnered they were targeting Abel. When that fell through it was "ok we have many we like...lets see how many we can acquire with 5 picks". Yorke might be a crappy pick (we sure have had others). But the thought process is spot on, REGARDLESS if other teams are doing it or not. Lets pause, give him time, give the PLAYERS TIME, and hope luck of the draft goes our way today and we pick up another 3 solid prospects.
And I personally really like the high school upside picks over the college guys right now. Look at our drafts....the college "safe" picks seem to be the ones that hose us year in and year out and end up being blah (not all no...but MANY). Upside high school players signed for $750k plus generally work out...unless it's a left handed pitcher who is a reach at 7.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 11, 2020 12:44:43 GMT -5
Teams are not going to have any luck signing a decent high school player for $20,000. This means all good HS players will need to be drafted. Problem is most teams won't be able to afford high school players past the second round, in a five round draft. The Red Sox could be the only team to take 4 elite HS talents, pay them each between $1,000,000 and $2,500,000, and then sign as many college fillers for $20,000 as possible.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 11, 2020 13:07:32 GMT -5
the level of incredulity last night was both troublesome and fun. There is nothing like a sports draft. It really has a flavor that is hard to come by in any other event.
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Post by jdb on Jun 11, 2020 13:26:33 GMT -5
They mentioned on the POD that perhaps drafting someone on a deal in round five could be in play and add that money to picks 3-4. Give a guy 75k and spilt the savings on the other picks tonight.
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Post by soxinnj on Jun 11, 2020 14:56:20 GMT -5
I’ve read all the love and hate on here for the pick last night. I know nothing about the kid and I’m usually not negative about teenagers (but his swing looks beautiful on film).
Just an idea...let’s say somebody deemed “unsignable” falls to them at pick 89...do the Sox offer $2.5 or $3million to sign him and then go $75 K to rounds 4 and 5? I would have no problem with that at all.
Obviously it fall depends upon what Yorke has agreed to sign for and what th savings is. But then you could have a legit late 1st/early 2nd round pick to pair with Yorke who could be considered a 2nd round pick.
I’d be okay with that in a 5-round draft where the Sox had no 2nd round pick.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 11, 2020 15:06:31 GMT -5
I’ve read all the love and hate on here for the pick last night. I know nothing about the kid and I’m usually not negative about teenagers (but his swing looks beautiful on film). Just an idea...let’s say somebody deemed “unsignable” falls to them at pick 89...do the Sox offer $2.5 or $3million to sign him and then go $75 K to rounds 4 and 5? I would have no problem with that at all. Obviously it fall depends upon what Yorke has agreed to sign for and what th savings is. But then you could have a legit late 1st/early 2nd round pick to pair with Yorke who could be considered a 2nd round pick. I’d be okay with that in a 5-round draft where the Sox had no 2nd round pick. Who are the star unsignables in this draft, though? I haven't seen many, if any, mentioned. I'm not talking about guys like Ginn who blew up his elbow in the spring. I mean legit potential stars.
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Post by marrcus on Jun 11, 2020 15:35:56 GMT -5
Maybe a few who are going to school no questions asked. Until somebody starts talking real money.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 15:45:00 GMT -5
I’ve read all the love and hate on here for the pick last night. I know nothing about the kid and I’m usually not negative about teenagers (but his swing looks beautiful on film). Just an idea...let’s say somebody deemed “unsignable” falls to them at pick 89...do the Sox offer $2.5 or $3million to sign him and then go $75 K to rounds 4 and 5? I would have no problem with that at all. Obviously it fall depends upon what Yorke has agreed to sign for and what th savings is. But then you could have a legit late 1st/early 2nd round pick to pair with Yorke who could be considered a 2nd round pick. I’d be okay with that in a 5-round draft where the Sox had no 2nd round pick. Who are the star unsignables in this draft, though? I haven't seen many, if any, mentioned. I'm not talking about guys like Ginn who blew up his elbow in the spring. I mean legit potential stars. If you're talking about "legit potential stars" based on pre-draft evaluation, they were all gone by pick 10. If you're going to talk about the idea that stars come from every round in the draft, then the Red Sox could've already drafted him at pick 17. You can't say with certainty that they didn't, nor can I that they did. We don't know but the Sox clearly think he has a shot to be.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 11, 2020 15:50:59 GMT -5
Not sure what "legit potential stars" means but Callis, today, said that he though Tanner Witt was likely to go to school. He jumped to my mind since there were some loose ties to Boston yesterday (being mentioned, at least, around their pick if not being named as a player of interest).
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Post by texs31 on Jun 11, 2020 15:53:20 GMT -5
That's part of the exercise, right? Identifying/signing the HS players who would otherwise go to school and turn themselves into 1st round picks.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 16:09:27 GMT -5
This is going to be a long evening.
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