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Let’s discuss the Red Sox horrendous pitching
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 15, 2020 8:26:59 GMT -5
Does anyone believe Price will make the Dodgers rotation after a year off ? Yeah. What're the chances that everyone remains healthy? Kershaw's getting up there, Buehler has had at least one IL stint every year (although one in the minors was the minimum of 7 days, and his current one is for a blister). And if they all are healthy, bumping, say, Gonsolin into the bullpen for a bit isn't the worst outcome in the world.
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2020 9:55:08 GMT -5
Does anyone believe Price will make the Dodgers rotation after a year off ? Why wouldn’t he? He has been good when healthy. What else would they do with him?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 15, 2020 10:38:14 GMT -5
Does anyone believe Price will make the Dodgers rotation after a year off ? Why wouldn’t he? He has been good when healthy. What else would they do with him? Do you mean other than he's 35, in 3 years regression and won't have pitched in a year and a half ? Expensive relief.
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Post by dangermike on Sept 15, 2020 12:38:28 GMT -5
Why wouldn’t he? He has been good when healthy. What else would they do with him? Do you mean other than he's 35, in 3 years regression and won't have pitched in a year and a half ? Expensive relief. he'll for sure make the rotation and he'll be very good for them...he's still a good pitcher just overpaid. remember when he was the world series mvp in 18...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2020 15:18:30 GMT -5
Why wouldn’t he? He has been good when healthy. What else would they do with him? Do you mean other than he's 35, in 3 years regression and won't have pitched in a year and a half ? Expensive relief. 35 isn't that old. He's been a quality pitcher for the past few years and it's not like he's coming off TJ surgery or a horrible season. He should be pretty fresh next season. And pitching in that ballpark should be helpful for him. No longer facing the Yankees should also help as well. He might not be the David Price of Tampa, Detroit or Toronto, but he should still be pretty effective and between other injuries, as others have mentioned, including time you could project missing for Price, he should have plenty of starts with the Dodgers in 2021 - that's if we're not still in the same position we are in now.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 15, 2020 16:39:03 GMT -5
New article by John tomase about Bryan Mata its a good read. Paul Abbott gushes about him, about time the kid gets some play should without a doubt be in the top 100 prospects in mlb.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 15, 2020 18:27:40 GMT -5
Do you mean other than he's 35, in 3 years regression and won't have pitched in a year and a half ? Expensive relief. 35 isn't that old. He's been a quality pitcher for the past few years and it's not like he's coming off TJ surgery or a horrible season. He should be pretty fresh next season. And pitching in that ballpark should be helpful for him. No longer facing the Yankees should also help as well. He might not be the David Price of Tampa, Detroit or Toronto, but he should still be pretty effective and between other injuries, as others have mentioned, including time you could project missing for Price, he should have plenty of starts with the Dodgers in 2021 - that's if we're not still in the same position we are in now. Of course he'll be in their rotation. There are posters on this board who think Chris Sale is going to be a big part of the RS rotation next year and he'll have gone nearly two calendar years without pitching by the time he takes the mound in 2021. Price, assuming he is staying in shape, will easily pitch more innings than Sale and probably be at least as effective.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 15, 2020 19:51:53 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo @chriscotillo · 4h Vazquez was asked about who has stood out to him on this year’s pitching staff. Answer: Phillips Valdez.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 19, 2020 14:08:15 GMT -5
I've come to the conclusion that Launch Angle in small samples isn't meaningful for predicting ERA.
I can look at the individual launch angles a pitcher has given up and translate that into a relative quality. I've looked at 7 guys and Marcus Walden has the worst and Domingo Tapia has the best of those 7 -- but the LA component of pERA is identical. So it's just adding noise. And it's a small contribution to begin with.
So a new version is forthcoming that leaves that out. Maybe later today, because I want to know!
I still think that measuring effectiveness by just K, BB, and hardness of contact is a great idea, and that combined with Stactcast's projected idea is the way to go with small samples like ours. Statcast gives proper credit for a hard-hit popup (yes, popups can have a hjgh EV!) or high fly ball, which are very catchable, and pERA doesn't, but Statcast penalizes for predictable cheap hits like bloops and swinging bunts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 19, 2020 17:53:27 GMT -5
A thorough update. Comments on fate in the 2021 thread.
Name Age Opt Stat IP TBF pERA sERA Godley + rest 30 0 IL+ 12.0 50 2.07 2.43 Darw. Hernandez 23 2 MLB 5.3 25 2.45 2.90 Brasier > 8/18 32 2 MLB 16.0 64 2.56 3.26 Dylan Covey 28 1 MLB 8.3 32 3.12 3.56 Tanner Houck 24 3 MLB 5.0 19 3.26 4.01 Barnes closer 30 0 MLB 8.7 35 4.31 3.05 Brice healthy 28 0 IL 13.7 57 4.45 3.40 Phillips Valdez 28 2 MLB 27.7 123 3.80 4.15 Domingo Tapia 28 3 MLB 2.0 10 5.31 2.75 [Ryan Brasier 23.0 99 4.27 4.30 Weber > 8/12 29 1 MLB 29.7 116 4.24 4.52 Nathan Eovaldi 30 0 MLB 42.3 176 4.41 4.47 Jeffrey Springs 27 3 MLB 16.7 80 4.42 4.50 Martin Perez 29 0 MLB 58.0 241 5.16 4.47 Chris Mazza 30 2 MLB 21.0 95 3.87 5.97 [Austin Brice 18.7 83 5.16 4.69 Robert Stock 30 2 MLB 11.3 54 5.38 5.04 [Matt Barnes 21.7 96 5.55 5.14 Mike Kickham 31 0 MLB 11.7 58 5.16 5.89 [Ryan Weber 39.7 170 6.10 5.78 [Zack Godley 28.7 143 6.08 6.77 Josh Taylor 27 2 IL 7.3 36 6.70 6.56 [Barnes as setup 13.0 61 6.43 6.88 Marcus Walden 31 1 MLB 12.7 65 6.68 6.86 Andrew Triggs 2 IL 7.0 31 7.04 6.94 [Brasier before 7.0 35 7.56 6.84 Colten Brewer 27 IL+ 25.7 122 7.00 8.25 [Brice hurt 5.0 26 7.21 8.46 Robinson Leyer 27 3 ATS 4.7 34 8.57 8.99 [Godley hurt 7.7 38 7.05 10.63 [Weber 3 starts 10.0 54 9.76 7.93 Matt Hall 26 3 ATS 8.7 54 6.97 11.58 Kyle Hart 27 3 IL+ 11.0 67 7.52 11.58 [Godley short rest 9.0 55 8.75 11.29
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 19, 2020 18:06:08 GMT -5
Hall and Hart being the worst certainly matches what I saw with my eyeballs
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2020 15:28:50 GMT -5
This tells you everything.
This is a pretty good team:
Travis Shaw, 1B Brock Holt, 2B Xander Bogaerts, SS Rafeal Devers, 3B Manuel Margot, LF Jackie Bradely, Jr, CF Mookie Betts, RF Christian Vazquez, C
You may recognize this an excerpt from the 2014 Red Sox prospect list.
Can they contend?
Well, I don't think so. The pitching staff is:
Brandon Workman Matt Barnes Ty Buttrey Noe Ramirez Javy Guerra
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2020 9:03:46 GMT -5
There were 212 MLB pitchers who started at least 2 games and averaged 13.5 batters faced per start.
Rank among the 212 of Sox starters in Win Probability Added (adjusted for leverage) / GS:
1. Tanner Houck 11. Nick Pivetta 64. Nathan Eovaldi 97. Martin Perez 126. Chris Mazza 147. Colten Brewer 157. Zack Godley 173. Ryan Weber 207. Mike Kichham 209. Kyle Hart
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 9:16:10 GMT -5
There were 212 MLB pitchers who started at least 2 games and averaged 13.5 batters faced per start. Rank among the 212 of Sox starters in Win Probability Added (adjusted for leverage) / GS: 1. Tanner Houck 11. Nick Pivetta 64. Nathan Eovaldi 97. Martin Perez 126. Chris Mazza 147. Colten Brewer 157. Zack Godley 173. Ryan Weber 207. Mike Kichham 209. Kyle Hart Interesting. I would have assumed that for Houck because of the competition and results. >13.5 I assume but not sure why that arbitrary breakoff.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 28, 2020 10:13:02 GMT -5
There were 212 MLB pitchers who started at least 2 games and averaged 13.5 batters faced per start. Rank among the 212 of Sox starters in Win Probability Added (adjusted for leverage) / GS: 1. Tanner Houck 11. Nick Pivetta 64. Nathan Eovaldi 97. Martin Perez 126. Chris Mazza 147. Colten Brewer 157. Zack Godley 173. Ryan Weber 207. Mike Kichham 209. Kyle Hart Interesting. I would have assumed that for Houck because of the competition and results. >13.5 I assume but not sure why that arbitrary breakoff. Does that mean our pitching is not as bad as everyone thinks now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 11:22:34 GMT -5
Interesting. I would have assumed that for Houck because of the competition and results. >13.5 I assume but not sure why that arbitrary breakoff. Does that mean our pitching is not as bad as everyone thinks now. Major SSS but 5 starters averagish or better in WPA seems like a move in the right direction.
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Post by manfred on Sept 28, 2020 11:40:57 GMT -5
Well, interestingly, the Sox starters came out ahead of the bullpen. Their full staff was 18th in bWAR, but starters were 18th (and positive at .3!) and relievers were 26th (Aa brutal -3.0). Granted this season the distinction was blurrier since guys were back and forth, opening etc. But it certainly felt like by the end of the season they were in better shape for the start of games than the second half of games.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 28, 2020 12:41:52 GMT -5
Well, interestingly, the Sox starters came out ahead of the bullpen. Their full staff was 18th in bWAR, but starters were 18th (and positive at .3!) and relievers were 26th (Aa brutal -3.0). Granted this season the distinction was blurrier since guys were back and forth, opening etc. But it certainly felt like by the end of the season they were in better shape for the start of games than the second half of games. The last few weeks were like a mullet: pitcher development in the front, tanking in the back.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 28, 2020 13:06:39 GMT -5
Well, interestingly, the Sox starters came out ahead of the bullpen. Their full staff was 18th in bWAR, but starters were 18th (and positive at .3!) and relievers were 26th (Aa brutal -3.0). Granted this season the distinction was blurrier since guys were back and forth, opening etc. But it certainly felt like by the end of the season they were in better shape for the start of games than the second half of games. So With a healthy sale and erod by the end of the year we could have a top ten rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 13:20:21 GMT -5
"could" is a big word.
For me, I don't think our rotation going forward is likely to be our biggest problem.
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Post by manfred on Sept 28, 2020 13:37:41 GMT -5
Well, interestingly, the Sox starters came out ahead of the bullpen. Their full staff was 18th in bWAR, but starters were 18th (and positive at .3!) and relievers were 26th (Aa brutal -3.0). Granted this season the distinction was blurrier since guys were back and forth, opening etc. But it certainly felt like by the end of the season they were in better shape for the start of games than the second half of games. So With a healthy sale and erod by the end of the year we could have a top ten rotation. Maybe. If those two jump you 8 spots. I think we are likely universally expecting the Sox to have one other starter from outside by next season, too. I don’t think .3 bWAR is something to be thrilled by, but they certainly seem stacked with 4th starter-types, so if Sale and ERod a) come back; b) for most of the season; c) at a 1 or 2 level, yeah, the staff will be dramatically better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2020 14:53:12 GMT -5
Well, interestingly, the Sox starters came out ahead of the bullpen. Their full staff was 18th in bWAR, but starters were 18th (and positive at .3!) and relievers were 26th (Aa brutal -3.0). Granted this season the distinction was blurrier since guys were back and forth, opening etc. But it certainly felt like by the end of the season they were in better shape for the start of games than the second half of games. So With a healthy sale and erod by the end of the year we could have a top ten rotation. The rotation could be average, but it could be the best in MLB. For most of these guys, the error bars on their projections are huge.
Sale's a guy who has been just about the best pitcher in MLB for the first half, and then declines to the point where he's an OK #3 by the time you get to the playoffs. He's coming off TJ surgery.
Best case: TJ recovery is top grade, they fix the season-fatigue problem, and he wins the CY despite missing April, and is a playoff monster.
Worst case: someone mentioned Juan Pena, the all-time leader in career bWAR per IP, minimum 10 innings (well, he's second to Houck for the time being). He earned that distinction by having TJ surgery and never pitching again.
E-Rod has the COVID recovery thing, so his possible contribution ranges from borderline ace (think Lester at his peak) to nil. Eovaldi has had stretches of brilliance and many more ones of mediocrity, plus a history of injury; his possible contribution is essentially the same. Houck could be anywhere from a 2 to a 4. Pivetta could be anywhere between a strong 3 to a 5.
There are only two guys who aren't wild cards. Perez is a 3, but he could be close to a 2 or close to a 4. Mazza looks like a 5 you can stash in AAA when everyone is healthy, which given all of the above uncertainty, is a good thing.
Very clearly, the Acquisition needs to be a guy with a history of health and consistency, ideally a borderline 2/3.
By the way, since they will open the season without Sale, and E-Rod is 50-50, and you always want enough credible starters to withstand 2 on the IL, they need another SP candidate beyond these 8. He would be a bulk guy, since you would use an opener if you had to go this far down the depth chart. The most obvious thing is to stretch out Darwinzon in ST as a plan B. Another obvious thing is to have a couple of strong SP candidates as NRI's should you end up with 4 guys on the IL. Godley already fits that bill and should clear waivers.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 28, 2020 16:58:25 GMT -5
So With a healthy sale and erod by the end of the year we could have a top ten rotation. Maybe. If those two jump you 8 spots. I think we are likely universally expecting the Sox to have one other starter from outside by next season, too. I don’t think .3 bWAR is something to be thrilled by, but they certainly seem stacked with 4th starter-types, so if Sale and ERod a) come back; b) for most of the season; c) at a 1 or 2 level, yeah, the staff will be dramatically better. I agree. The bullpen is what needs the most retool this off season. Another 2 or 3 arms that turn out good season I like our makeup moving forward. But alot lies on how good of a season erod and sale have.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 21:22:54 GMT -5
So With a healthy sale and erod by the end of the year we could have a top ten rotation. The rotation could be average, but it could be the best in MLB. For most of these guys, the error bars on their projections are huge. Sale's a guy who has been just about the best pitcher in MLB for the first half, and then declines to the point where he's an OK #3 by the time you get to the playoffs. He's coming off TJ surgery.
Best case: TJ recovery is top grade, they fix the season-fatigue problem, and he wins the CY despite missing April, and is a playoff monster.
Worst case: someone mentioned Juan Pena, the all-time leader in career bWAR per IP, minimum 10 innings (well, he's second to Houck for the time being). He earned that distinction by having TJ surgery and never pitching again.
E-Rod has the COVID recovery thing, so his possible contribution ranges from borderline ace (think Lester at his peak) to nil. Eovaldi has had stretches of brilliance and many more ones of mediocrity, plus a history of injury; his possible contribution is essentially the same. Houck could be anywhere from a 2 to a 4. Pivetta could be anywhere between a strong 3 to a 5. There are only two guys who aren't wild cards. Perez is a 3, but he could be close to a 2 or close to a 4. Mazza looks like a 5 you can stash in AAA when everyone is healthy, which given all of the above uncertainty, is a good thing. Very clearly, the Acquisition needs to be a guy with a history of health and consistency, ideally a borderline 2/3.
By the way, since they will open the season without Sale, and E-Rod is 50-50, and you always want enough credible starters to withstand 2 on the IL, they need another SP candidate beyond these 8. He would be a bulk guy, since you would use an opener if you had to go this far down the depth chart. The most obvious thing is to stretch out Darwinzon in ST as a plan B. Another obvious thing is to have a couple of strong SP candidates as NRI's should you end up with 4 guys on the IL. Godley already fits that bill and should clear waivers.
We also should have Gozalves who looks better and has a more interesting history than Mazza. In the pen mix Simpson and Blair.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 28, 2020 21:43:51 GMT -5
Considering the injury concerns/history and limited innings pitched for most Of our projected starters next year, would it be that crazy to go with a 6-man rotation?
Sale E-Rod Eolvadi Houck Pivetta Perez
Wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world.
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