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Red Sox reportedly shopping Benintendi
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Post by manfred on Jan 9, 2021 23:52:14 GMT -5
This is depressing. If Beni busts or they sell low, what a fall. Dude was one of the top prospects in the game... a cautionary tale for folks slotting prospects in starting roles in the next few years. Is anyone in the system as big a prospect as Beni was at his peak (not a snarky question... legit asking). How is it a cautionary tale? He was a 3 WAR/yr player for the first three years of his career. It's not like they rushed him and he failed or something. That a guy who looked set to be plugged into LF for a decade might have fizzled? My point is even absolutely elite prospects don’t pan out, so when people start envisioning Casas at first or Duran in CF or whatever, it might be jumping the gun. He didn’t “fail,” but if he’s done (or gone) he certainly never was what we hoped. Add: and, note I said “if”.... I LIKE Beni, and I hope they keep him and he gets straightened out. So IF he doesn’t turn it around or IF they sell low, it is a terrible disappointment.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 10, 2021 1:24:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Benintendi was dealt but they'd be selling low. Can't imagine they'd get that much of a prospect for him. Maybe somebody promising but nobody that's a top prospect.
I can see them dealing Beintendi and signing Rosario to take his spot in LF. Although one would wonder why a team would deal any real talent when they could simply sign Rosario themselves. I'm guessing that Rosario will make a few million more in free agency in 2021 so that might be the answer right there.
I think it's very plausible Benintendi gets dealt. We'll see how good the prospect is. I would say that dealing Benintendi would leave the lineup very RH with only Verdugo and Devers as LHH. The Inciarte (boy is he mediocre) and a prospect idea is definitely plausible.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2021 2:27:57 GMT -5
Benni + $$ should net a decent prospect.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 10, 2021 7:32:26 GMT -5
Shouldn’t Bloom wait until ST to see if Beni has made any adjustments to look more like the 2018 edition? This way he would no longer be selling low and he could decide Andrew is worth hanging onto or moving at the. TD.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 10, 2021 7:51:10 GMT -5
Shouldn’t Bloom wait until ST to see if Beni has made any adjustments to look more like the 2018 edition? This way he would no longer be selling low and he could decide Andrew is worth hanging onto or moving at the. TD. I'm not sure what fans are expecting from a Benintendi trade. GM's can kind of predict what Benintendi is going to do for a team. He's going to hit you 15-20 maybe 25 homeruns in a peak year, a .330-.360 OBP, 10-20 steals. He's a solid regular. Benintendi has always been a solid regular. He wasn't exactly a elite prospect either. He was just major league ready really fast and a fairly predictable bet to be a solid/above average player when he came up. Now, what can you expect from a Benintendi trade? You hold onto him. Yeah sure he rebounds into the solid regular he usually is, but maybe injuries kick in June or July. Maybe a bad slump happens in July. That becomes risky waiting until the trade deadline to get peak value, plus pieces aren't probably readily available like they are now through free agency and trade to replace Benintendi. You hold onto him and he performs and stays with the team all 2021. Well, now he's got only 1 year of control left. You're now getting 25 cents to the dollar anyways for value for that reason alone. The time is probably now to trade Benintendi. He's fairly cheap and has some control left and you know what you're getting with him, again. GM's aren't going to take any face value to his 2020 with his 40 at bats or whatever. They'll throw it out. The Sox don't need a somewhat cheap controllable LF for 2021. They need a higher upside prospect, even if you have to take a more negative value player in Inciarte or something coming back. A contender who's spent most of it's money this off-season could see the value in trading for Benintendi, however (White Sox, Braves). Maybe they have some room for a extension and they don't have a Eduardo Rodriguez, Devers, and Verdugo contracts coming up soon. That's really my 2 cents on the situation. Add- You can't afford to keep Benintendi long term, he's getting traded at some point.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on Jan 10, 2021 9:40:26 GMT -5
Bryce Wilson, Braves RHP, will be 23, former BBA #80 prospect, stalled a little?
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 10, 2021 9:56:39 GMT -5
One comment on the selling low talk. It’s selling low IF Benny bounces back. If Benny has another awful half season then you won’t get a bucket of balls for him. Exit velocity, ground ball to fly ball, foot speed, EVERYTHING trended down with the guy. Not saying you trade him just saying his stock could go lower if his trends solidify into, that’s now who he is, a below average hitter with little power who doesn’t play a good left field. Selling now has risks. Waiting also has risks.
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2021 10:34:37 GMT -5
Shouldn’t Bloom wait until ST to see if Beni has made any adjustments to look more like the 2018 edition? This way he would no longer be selling low and he could decide Andrew is worth hanging onto or moving at the. TD. I'm not sure what fans are expecting from a Benintendi trade. GM's can kind of predict what Benintendi is going to do for a team. He's going to hit you 15-20 maybe 25 homeruns in a peak year, a .330-.360 OBP, 10-20 steals. He's a solid regular. Benintendi has always been a solid regular. He wasn't exactly a elite prospect either. He was just major league ready really fast and a fairly predictable bet to be a solid/above average player when he came up. Now, what can you expect from a Benintendi trade? You hold onto him. Yeah sure he rebounds into the solid regular he usually is, but maybe injuries kick in June or July. Maybe a bad slump happens in July. That becomes risky waiting until the trade deadline to get peak value, plus pieces aren't probably readily available like they are now through free agency and trade to replace Benintendi. You hold onto him and he performs and stays with the team all 2021. Well, now he's got only 1 year of control left. You're now getting 25 cents to the dollar anyways for value for that reason alone. The time is probably now to trade Benintendi. He's fairly cheap and has some control left and you know what you're getting with him, again. GM's aren't going to take any face value to his 2020 with his 40 at bats or whatever. They'll throw it out. The Sox don't need a somewhat cheap controllable LF for 2021. They need a higher upside prospect, even if you have to take a more negative value player in Inciarte or something coming back. A contender who's spent most of it's money this off-season could see the value in trading for Benintendi, however (White Sox, Braves). Maybe they have some room for a extension and they don't have a Eduardo Rodriguez, Devers, and Verdugo contracts coming up soon. That's really my 2 cents on the situation. Add- You can't afford to keep Benintendi long term, he's getting traded at some point. He wasn’t an elite prospect? www.mlb.com/news/2017-top-100-prospects-list-unveiled-c214450588He was ranked the top prospect in baseball. Seems... good?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 10, 2021 12:19:44 GMT -5
Yeah to suggest that Benintendi wasn't an elite prospect is simply incorrect. Maybe it didn't seem that way because the system was lousy with elite prospects at the time and we all got spoiled.
He probably had the best hit tool of any Red Sox minor leaguer I've seen. His decline has been entirely confounding. I'm sure that the Red Sox have a better idea internally what the problem is. Maybe he bulked up too much? I dunno. He's only 2 seasons removed from a 4 or 5 WAR season and seeming like he was going to turn into a terrific everyday left fielder. I've got nothing on that one.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 10, 2021 12:30:18 GMT -5
On paper Benintendi was amazing. I 100% wanted to trade Moncada for Sale over Benintendi. Stuff happens. Trains get derailed.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2021 14:44:06 GMT -5
OK, so redo the rankings per 20 starts. Get it?
I'm looking first at quality. Reliability is a completely uncorrelated factor, and if you combine the two, you have no idea how good anyone is. (I always adjust to 32 starts because that's 1/5 of a season and the best starters usually have 32 or 33.)
The numbers show that Kluber is so much better than everyone else on a start-by-start basis that he's worth the risk of not getting a full season. The numbers also show, for instance that Rich Hill is a guy who could pitch for you in the post-season if he's still healthy. If you also projected GS and combined the two, you'd miss that completely.
And while Kluber is hard to project given that his command was so off in his abbreviated 2019, you can trust that they've broken down the biomechanics of every pitch he threw that season (as well as when he was at his best) and will be assessing his bullpen on Wednesday through that lens.
The someone you cite in the text that I bolded is me (among others).
But my point is you can’t prorate the 32 game projection down to 20, because that 32 game projection assumes a complete bounce back. He hasn’t even had his showcase! We don’t know that he won’t come out throwing 86-MPH! They are saying the pre-injury Kluber of 3 years ago might look like this. But what I’m saying is not just that making 32 starts is unlikely, but that the health and age that keep him from doing it will likely be visible in his performance when he pitches. If you prorate, it ignores *why* he misses starts. At the same time, it isn’t impossible, of course. But I just don’t get how some mathematicians can say how he projects coming off shoulder surgery before he’s thrown in public. What do they know about his status? He tore a muscle in the back of his shoulder, got a platelet-rich injunction and was shut down for four weeks. He would have pitched again if the injury had happened early in a regular year. Maybe you had brain surgery?
And I sincerely doubt he'd fly from Mass. to FL to showcase an 86 mph FB. I believe he's said that he's throwing the ball great.
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2021 14:47:51 GMT -5
But my point is you can’t prorate the 32 game projection down to 20, because that 32 game projection assumes a complete bounce back. He hasn’t even had his showcase! We don’t know that he won’t come out throwing 86-MPH! They are saying the pre-injury Kluber of 3 years ago might look like this. But what I’m saying is not just that making 32 starts is unlikely, but that the health and age that keep him from doing it will likely be visible in his performance when he pitches. If you prorate, it ignores *why* he misses starts. At the same time, it isn’t impossible, of course. But I just don’t get how some mathematicians can say how he projects coming off shoulder surgery before he’s thrown in public. What do they know about his status? He tore a muscle in the back of his shoulder, got a platelet-rich injunction and was shut down for four weeks. He would have pitched again if the injury had happened early in a regular year. Maybe you had brain surgery?
And I sincerely doubt he'd fly from Mass. to FL to showcase an 86 mph FB. I believe he's said that he's throwing the ball great.
Well, when I was 19, I was a pitcher, had TJ, Mets doc, never recovered. Dismiss injuries all you like, but to pitch, you can’t be 98% — it is a sports car, man. And I think there are millions of reasons not to say “hey, I’m toast.” Add: screw your condescension, by the way. Have you performed surgery? Did you bravely type on Sons of Sam Horn with carpel tunnel, so you can tell us about injuries? Add2: the Sox signed McHugh last year when he couldn’t throw at all. You’re saying there is no incentive to throw, say “still working back arm strength!” and sign a flyer contract? C’mon. If he is at his peak or near it in his mind, there is no reason NOT to throw. The corpse of former Cy Young winner can get a million bucks.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 10, 2021 15:09:52 GMT -5
Stay away from the personal attacks, please.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 10, 2021 15:34:21 GMT -5
It’s like mom and dad fighting when the vets go at it on this thread, this off season is freaking killing me. For those of you who said chill out January is the new December....ok but....January is a moving along
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2021 15:44:15 GMT -5
He tore a muscle in the back of his shoulder, got a platelet-rich injunction and was shut down for four weeks. He would have pitched again if the injury had happened early in a regular year. Maybe you had brain surgery?
And I sincerely doubt he'd fly from Mass. to FL to showcase an 86 mph FB. I believe he's said that he's throwing the ball great.
Well, when I was 19, I was a pitcher, had TJ, Mets doc, never recovered. Dismiss injuries all you like, but to pitch, you can’t be 98% — it is a sports car, man. And I think there are millions of reasons not to say “hey, I’m toast.” Add: screw your condescension, by the way. Have you performed surgery? Did you bravely type on Sons of Sam Horn with carpel tunnel, so you can tell us about injuries? Add2: the Sox signed McHugh last year when he couldn’t throw at all. You’re saying there is no incentive to throw, say “still working back arm strength!” and sign a flyer contract? C’mon. If he is at his peak or near it in his mind, there is no reason NOT to throw. The corpse of former Cy Young winner can get a million bucks. manfred, sorry if that seemed condescending, but when your innately ultra-pessimistic brain turns a 4-week injury into nonexistent surgery with such certainty that you don't stop to think how he could possibly be ready to pitch this year if that were the case ... I just thought I'd get a mention of your brain in there.
Since Kluber lives in Mass. with his wife and would probably jump at a chance to sign here on a team-friendly deal, and since I've already pointed out that they are armed with a tremendous amount of data and knowledge to assess his workout, you might try thinking about the possibility that we're about to get THE COREY KLUBER for relative cheap -- which, although not all that likely, is much more likely than our signing him to be the extra mid-top rotation piece we need, but getting him all wrong and him busting. Which it seems is all you can think about.
And meanwhile, if they don't like what they see in Kluber, I bet they have a deal close to done with Odorizzi. It's all good. Really!
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 10, 2021 15:51:47 GMT -5
Pedro was a LOT less than 98% when he no hit an all world Cleveland lineup for 6 innings in 1999 ALDS game 5 just saying. Yes, it was Pedro, but...
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2021 15:55:03 GMT -5
Well, when I was 19, I was a pitcher, had TJ, Mets doc, never recovered. Dismiss injuries all you like, but to pitch, you can’t be 98% — it is a sports car, man. And I think there are millions of reasons not to say “hey, I’m toast.” Add: screw your condescension, by the way. Have you performed surgery? Did you bravely type on Sons of Sam Horn with carpel tunnel, so you can tell us about injuries? Add2: the Sox signed McHugh last year when he couldn’t throw at all. You’re saying there is no incentive to throw, say “still working back arm strength!” and sign a flyer contract? C’mon. If he is at his peak or near it in his mind, there is no reason NOT to throw. The corpse of former Cy Young winner can get a million bucks. manfred, sorry if that seemed condescending, but when your innately ultra-pessimistic brain turns a 4-week injury into nonexistent surgery with such certainty that you don't stop to think how he could possibly be ready to pitch this year if that were the case ... I just thought I'd get a mention of your brain in there.
Since Kluber lives in Mass. with his wife and would probably jump at a chance to sign here on a team-friendly deal, and since I've already pointed out that they are armed with a tremendous amount of data and knowledge to assess his workout, you might try thinking about the possibility that we're about to get THE COREY KLUBER for relative cheap -- which, although not all that likely, is much more likely than our signing him to be the extra mid-top rotation piece we need, but getting him all wrong and him busting. Which it seems is all you can think about.
And meanwhile, if they don't like what they see in Kluber, I bet they have a deal close to done with Odorizzi. It's all good. Really! But I didn’t say he’d bust: I said that mathematician projections are meaningless until he throws. In fact, I said it was not impossible he’d be “the” Kluber, though surely a statistician as wise as you knows that a guy who is in his mid-30s, has been hurt, and has thrown a lot of innings is a good bet for decline. That is not pessimism. It is biology. But you are actually accusing me of the opposite of my point: I have *no* firm projection, because he hasn’t thrown. (As a gambler, I *do* think of odds, and the ofds that he is past his peak seem very, very high). I *do* think specific WAR projections are absurd under those circumstances. AND... I’ve said I’m fine with signing him! I await your smarm.
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2021 15:58:50 GMT -5
Pedro was a LOT less than 98% when he no hit an all world Cleveland lineup for 6 innings in 1999 ALDS game 5 just saying. Yes, it was Pedro, but... OK, 98% may be high. But I also mean for long. Guys can grind through pain, but once a screw gets loose, it gets worse, then you adjust and other things come loose, etc etc. There are certainly examples of heroic, unhealthy performances (and there are aids like cortisone shots, which I did, or painkillers, you bet I did, that can keep you going for a while)... but it all delays the inevitable.
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Post by jdb on Jan 10, 2021 18:07:20 GMT -5
With Bennitendi I wonder if taking on a higher salary of a productive player could add to it. The Reds with Moustakas to play 2B/1B could be useful to us.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 10, 2021 18:07:41 GMT -5
Yeah to suggest that Benintendi wasn't an elite prospect is simply incorrect. Maybe it didn't seem that way because the system was lousy with elite prospects at the time and we all got spoiled. He probably had the best hit tool of any Red Sox minor leaguer I've seen. I'm guessing you've never seen the Pedrioa or Mookie's hit tool in the system. Kind of a exaggeration, no? Mookie hit .400 for a half a season in AA. Benintendi was a major league ready prospect. He's had one great peak half a season. He's a solid baseball player. Nothing screamed elite with him. Not speed. Not power. Hit tool? I'm not sure if that was elite either. Really good. Yes.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 10, 2021 18:41:41 GMT -5
It's splitting hairs when debating the top of the top, but it's not an exaggeration by any means that Beni is in the discussion. Take the minor-league stats with a grain of salt, but for what it's worth, Beni's LD rates coming up through the system were better than Mookie.
It's just all the more stunning how bad he was last year. For a guy who consistently had a >20% LD rate, to drop to 5% last year, even in a small sample, was so abnormal.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jan 10, 2021 18:50:38 GMT -5
Yeah to suggest that Benintendi wasn't an elite prospect is simply incorrect. Maybe it didn't seem that way because the system was lousy with elite prospects at the time and we all got spoiled. He probably had the best hit tool of any Red Sox minor leaguer I've seen. I'm guessing you've never seen the Pedrioa or Mookie's hit tool in the system. Kind of a exaggeration, no? Mookie hit .400 for a half a season in AA. Benintendi was a major league ready prospect. He's had one great peak half a season. He's a solid baseball player. Nothing screamed elite with him. Not speed. Not power. Hit tool? I'm not sure if that was elite either. Really good. Yes. I seem to remember people describing Benintendi as a future batting average title winner. Wouldn't that qualify as an elite hit tool? It hasn't turned out that way, but that was the kind of prospect he was. Pretty sure he ranked very high on this sites ratings of prospects at least one year as well. He was thought of highly enough that what he has actually become is sort of disappointing to many, incluing me, who thought he had the potential to be more than just a solid baseball player.
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Post by manfred on Jan 10, 2021 19:09:24 GMT -5
I don’t remember, and I’m not being difficult, but in, say, the last 20 years, have the Sox had another guy who was considered the number #1 prospect (even non-consensus)? Was X or Devers or Betts etc ever there?
And this is not about *actual quality* — some guys jump the line, like Betts who was here to stay so fast he couldn’t be ranked like that. I know it is meaningless. I am curious about it simply as a point of interest.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 10, 2021 19:11:57 GMT -5
I'm guessing you've never seen the Pedrioa or Mookie's hit tool in the system. Kind of a exaggeration, no? Mookie hit .400 for a half a season in AA. Benintendi was a major league ready prospect. He's had one great peak half a season. He's a solid baseball player. Nothing screamed elite with him. Not speed. Not power. Hit tool? I'm not sure if that was elite either. Really good. Yes. I seem to remember people describing Benintendi as a future batting average title winner. Wouldn't that qualify as an elite hit tool? It hasn't turned out that way, but that was the kind of prospect he was. Pretty sure he ranked very high on this sites ratings of prospects at least one year as well. He was thought of highly enough that what he has actually become is sort of disappointing to many, incluing me, who thought he had the potential to be more than just a solid baseball player. This probably turns into what kind of a grade do you consider elite? He maintained a over .300 batting average through the minors mostly, which probably translates to what it is now. A .270-.290 hitter in the big leagues. A conservative 65 hit tool grade would have been fair for him back then. Can see why people would dream on him, however. I'm dreaming like that with Mata being a top of the rotation guy, but conservatively I'd be happy with a mid rotation guy.
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Post by rasimon on Jan 10, 2021 19:21:30 GMT -5
I don’t remember, and I’m not being difficult, but in, say, the last 20 years, have the Sox had another guy who was considered the number #1 prospect (even non-consensus)? Was X or Devers or Betts etc ever there? And this is not about *actual quality* — some guys jump the line, like Betts who was here to stay so fast he couldn’t be ranked like that. I know it is meaningless. I am curious about it simply as a point of interest. Matsuzaka was ranked #1 by BBA Moncada was ranked #2 by BBA in the off-season when we traded him
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