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Red Sox FA Target: Jake Odorizzi
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Post by ortiz34 on Jan 6, 2021 10:04:49 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 6, 2021 10:19:33 GMT -5
Sounds fair enough to me, I'd definitely take him on the sox for that price.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 6, 2021 10:28:21 GMT -5
Give him 3/39 and get it done with
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Post by unitspin on Jan 6, 2021 10:45:49 GMT -5
Sounds fair enough to me, I'd definitely take him on the sox for that price. Sounds cheap to me if they can't close that deal we might be in trouble.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2021 10:53:16 GMT -5
That's not that much of a bargain for a guy who's average to a bit above. Makes me wonder how much Sugano is looking for. I'd rather see the Sox gamble and give Sugano that money (or less as I wouldn't think he'd demand that much although I could be very wrong about that). My concern is that you're paying $13 million or so for 3 years to a pitcher who was quite good in 2019 but was never really that impressive otherwise and is pretty much a 165 inning/year pitcher. I have a feeling by the time year 3 of a deal with Odirizzi comes to pass we'll be happy to be rid of him as I wouldn't be surprised if he slips to below average by then. It seems to me at that much money it takes away the Sox ability to get much else. I don't want to see the Sox lose their crack at Kluber if competition for him gets fierce as I suspect it will. Getting Odirizzi and Andriese for the rotation isn't good enough. And they still need to improve the pen and 2b and it will cost some money to improve the pen. I'm fine with going cheap for 2b, and then again there's CF needing help too. If Odirizzi, an average starter, eats up that much of the remaining money, I'm not sure how the Sox fix their numerous remaining holes for another 10 - 12 million.
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Post by manfred on Jan 6, 2021 12:00:02 GMT -5
That's not that much of a bargain for a guy who's average to a bit above. Makes me wonder how much Sugano is looking for. I'd rather see the Sox gamble and give Sugano that money (or less as I wouldn't think he'd demand that much although I could be very wrong about that). My concern is that you're paying $13 million or so for 3 years to a pitcher who was quite good in 2019 but was never really that impressive otherwise and is pretty much a 165 inning/year pitcher. I have a feeling by the time year 3 of a deal with Odirizzi comes to pass we'll be happy to be rid of him as I wouldn't be surprised if he slips to below average by then. It seems to me at that much money it takes away the Sox ability to get much else. I don't want to see the Sox lose their crack at Kluber if competition for him gets fierce as I suspect it will. Getting Odirizzi and Andriese for the rotation isn't good enough. And they still need to improve the pen and 2b and it will cost some money to improve the pen. I'm fine with going cheap for 2b, and then again there's CF needing help too. If Odirizzi, an average starter, eats up that much of the remaining money, I'm not sure how the Sox fix their numerous remaining holes for another 10 - 12 million. I can live with Odirizzi at this price. He doesn’t move the needle this year, but he isn’t so old that next year a full strength Sale, ERod, Odirizzi, and a couple others (maybe a mix of a kid who develops and another FA) doesn’t look functional to competitive.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 6, 2021 13:18:42 GMT -5
The signing of Andriese and the possible acquisition of Odorizzi would shut the door on Houck and Pivetta’s chances at a spot in the rotation. I believe, from his performance in the late Season, that Tanner deserves a crack at a SP slot. And I believe that, at age 27 the door may be closing on Pivetta.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 6, 2021 13:43:06 GMT -5
The signing of Andriese and the possible acquisition of Odorizzi would shut the door on Houck and Pivetta’s chances at a spot in the rotation. I believe, from his performance in the late Season, that Tanner deserves a crack at a SP slot. And I believe that, at age 27 the door may be closing on Pivetta. I believe Pivetta is out of options, so he will make the team if not injured, and I believe would start ahead of Andriese who is more of a spot starter/swingman.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 6, 2021 13:49:16 GMT -5
The signing of Andriese and the possible acquisition of Odorizzi would shut the door on Houck and Pivetta’s chances at a spot in the rotation. I believe, from his performance in the late Season, that Tanner deserves a crack at a SP slot. And I believe that, at age 27 the door may be closing on Pivetta. I believe Pivetta is out of options, so he will make the team if not injured, and I believe would start ahead of Andriese who is more of a spot starter/swingman. Another way of looking at it is that a poor spring by the 3-4-5 starter may earn them a spot in the bullpen to start the year while the “hot hand” gets the rotation spot until that starter gets straightened out. The year 2021 promises to be a strange year coming out of the gate with so many players getting little or even no innings pitched in 2020.
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Post by mg050369 on Jan 6, 2021 13:58:08 GMT -5
The signing of Andriese and the possible acquisition of Odorizzi would shut the door on Houck and Pivetta’s chances at a spot in the rotation. I believe, from his performance in the late Season, that Tanner deserves a crack at a SP slot. And I believe that, at age 27 the door may be closing on Pivetta. Yes, if you have a healthy 5 man rotation but I doubt you will see that. Even if you signed 2 FA SP: Sale, ERod, Eovoldi, FA1, FA2, Pivetta, Houck. If everyone is healthy, you can go with a 6 man rotation with Houck waiting at AAA or serving as a multi-innings reliever. MA fills the same role. However, the reality is Sale probably won’t pitch in April. ERod probably won’t give you 200 innings and will require a bulk inning partner. I’m not too worried about Pivetta and Houck getting squeezed on starts. January excesses typically turn into June deficits.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 6, 2021 14:00:56 GMT -5
I believe Pivetta is out of options, so he will make the team if not injured, and I believe would start ahead of Andriese who is more of a spot starter/swingman. Another way of looking at it is that a poor spring by the 3-4-5 starter may earn them a spot in the bullpen to start the year while the “hot hand” gets the rotation spot until that starter gets straightened out. The year 2021 promises to be a strange year coming out of the gate with so many players getting little or even no innings pitched in 2020. To me, in a perfect world you can call it Pivetta and Andriese hopefully fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation (with the other headed to the bullpen) behind Rodriguez/Eovaldi and two acquisitions (and Houck in AAA), with Pivetta having the edge because of higher upside and because Andriese has done the swingman thing before, but both likely to contribute significant innings and starts. But yeah, if anything, I've got Pivetta ahead of Andriese on the depth chart.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 6, 2021 14:02:18 GMT -5
The signing of Andriese and the possible acquisition of Odorizzi would shut the door on Houck and Pivetta’s chances at a spot in the rotation. I believe, from his performance in the late Season, that Tanner deserves a crack at a SP slot. And I believe that, at age 27 the door may be closing on Pivetta. Yes, if you have a healthy 5 man rotation but I doubt you will see that. Even if you signed 2 FA SP: Sale, ERod, Eovoldi, FA1, FA2, Pivetta, Houck. If everyone is healthy, you can go with a 6 man rotation with Houck waiting at AAA or serving as a multi-innings reliever. MA fills the same role. However, the reality is Sale probably won’t pitch in April. ERod probably won’t give you 200 innings and will require a bulk inning partner. I’m not too worried about Pivetta and Houck getting squeezed on starts. January excesses typically turn into June deficits. Sale isn't coming back until like June or July. You go into the season not even counting him when you make a rotation, and he's your midseason acquisition.
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Post by Canseco on Jan 6, 2021 14:19:50 GMT -5
Yes, if you have a healthy 5 man rotation but I doubt you will see that. Even if you signed 2 FA SP: Sale, ERod, Eovoldi, FA1, FA2, Pivetta, Houck. If everyone is healthy, you can go with a 6 man rotation with Houck waiting at AAA or serving as a multi-innings reliever. MA fills the same role. However, the reality is Sale probably won’t pitch in April. ERod probably won’t give you 200 innings and will require a bulk inning partner. I’m not too worried about Pivetta and Houck getting squeezed on starts. January excesses typically turn into June deficits. Sale isn't coming back until like June or July. You go into the season not even counting him when you make a rotation, and he's your midseason acquisition. Exactly. This is why signing Sugano or Odorizzi, along with a back-end type, is critically important. We can figure out the bullpen, but with the situations of Sale and Rodriguez factored in, the Sox need actual rotation pieces. Beyond that, re-sign JBJ, acquire a LHH utility infielder, and I’ll be pretty optimistic.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2021 14:25:13 GMT -5
Another way of looking at it is that a poor spring by the 3-4-5 starter may earn them a spot in the bullpen to start the year while the “hot hand” gets the rotation spot until that starter gets straightened out. The year 2021 promises to be a strange year coming out of the gate with so many players getting little or even no innings pitched in 2020. To me, in a perfect world you can call it Pivetta and Andriese hopefully fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation (with the other headed to the bullpen) behind Rodriguez/Eovaldi and two acquisitions (and Houck in AAA), with Pivetta having the edge because of higher upside and because Andriese has done the swingman thing before, but both likely to contribute significant innings and starts. But yeah, if anything, I've got Pivetta ahead of Andriese on the depth chart. I'm assuming the Sox sign Odirizzi. I would think the Sugano ship has just about sailed. I was under the impression that they needed to come to an agreement with room to spare from the Thursday posting end date, but I could be wrong. If they spend the rumored $12 - $13 million or so to sign Odirizzi, I don't know if they try to bring in Kluber or stand pat in the rotation. E-Rod is coming back, but we don't know for sure that he'll be full strength. I would think that he'll be in the rotation but monitored very closely and treated with kid gloves. Eovaldi is in the rotation but we know he has a checkered injury history. Odirizzi or whoever would take a spot in the rotation. That leaves two spots which would go to Pivetta and Andriese. I'd think that if they acquire a second starter like a Kluber, then you have a more solid five of Kluber, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Odirizzi, and Pivetta. Andriese would drop into a swingman role. He'd be the primary one. They'd have a secondary swingman in Garrett Whitlock who should easily make the roster. You figure Andriese and Whitlock can back up a staff that has injury histories, and yes, when Chris Sale comes back, the odds are that injuries will have cropped up by then, and he'll be easing in to a spot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 6, 2021 14:29:39 GMT -5
I can't imagine they're going to hand Andriese a starting rotation spot when he hasn't been a full-time starter since 2017 and has a career high of 127 2/3 innings pitched, in 2016. I think they can honestly say he can compete for a spot if one of the projected five is Pivetta, given that he's no sure thing, but I'd be surprised if they only acquire one more starting pitcher. That said, perhaps doing so would mean they have great confidence in Houck and want him to be competing with Pivetta and Andriese (and Mazza and Gossett and maybe Weber) for two spots. I think that only happens, though, if the market works out such that all of their targets sign for more than they're willing to pay. In this market, I'd be surprised if that happened.
N.B.: Odorizzi. Two O's, two I's.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2021 14:49:10 GMT -5
I can't imagine they're going to hand Andriese a starting rotation spot when he hasn't been a full-time starter since 2017 and has a career high of 127 2/3 innings pitched, in 2016. I think they can honestly say he can compete for a spot if one of the projected five is Pivetta, given that he's no sure thing, but I'd be surprised if they only acquire one more starting pitcher. That said, perhaps doing so would mean they have great confidence in Houck and want him to be competing with Pivetta and Andriese (and Mazza and Gossett and maybe Weber) for two spots. I think that only happens, though, if the market works out such that all of their targets sign for more than they're willing to pay. In this market, I'd be surprised if that happened. N.B.: Odorizzi. Two O's, two I's. Gotcha. Maybe my brain doesn't want to associate him with stinking so I made it Odir rather than Odor. I didn't include Houck in the rotation because I think he'll start the season in AAA regardless of what happens. He had three great starts, but...they'll see him later in the year. I guess my question comes down to if they spend that much money on a Odorizzi, and with all the holes they need to fill in the pen, 2b, and cf, will that have money to spend on a Kluber, who if healthy, can really be a difference maker in the rotation or are they looking at the Matt Shoemakers of the world?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 6, 2021 15:32:26 GMT -5
Is what they need a "difference-maker" though? Like get me a serviceable mid-rotation guy and an acceptable no. 5 and I'm good. This isn't the time to put the pedal on the floor to make the 2021 Red Sox a world series contender. Fill out an actual rotation of MLB starting pitchers and I'm good.
Anyway, available SP: Sugano Bauer Tanaka Paxton Odorizzi Walker Kluber Leake Quintana Archer Brett Anderson Chase Anderson Porcello Happ Wainwright Martin Perez Hill Arrieta Lester Hamels Shoemaker
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 6, 2021 15:40:11 GMT -5
Is what they need a "difference-maker" though? Like get me a serviceable mid-rotation guy and an acceptable no. 5 and I'm good. This isn't the time to put the pedal on the floor to make the 2021 Red Sox a world series contender. Fill out an actual rotation of MLB starting pitchers and I'm good. Anyway, available SP: Sugano Bauer Tanaka Paxton Odorizzi Walker Kluber Leake Quintana Archer Brett Anderson Chase Anderson Porcello Happ Wainwright Martin Perez Hill Arrieta Lester Hamels Shoemaker Give me Odorizzi for the 3 year $36 million and Martin Perez on a 1 year deal and call it a day on rotation adds. Who knows maybe Sale gets close to vintage Sale by the end of the season and they grab a wildcard. Sale, Erod, Odorizzi isn't a half bad playoff rotation.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2021 15:58:56 GMT -5
Is what they need a "difference-maker" though? Like get me a serviceable mid-rotation guy and an acceptable no. 5 and I'm good. This isn't the time to put the pedal on the floor to make the 2021 Red Sox a world series contender. Fill out an actual rotation of MLB starting pitchers and I'm good. Anyway, available SP: Sugano Bauer Tanaka Paxton Odorizzi Walker Kluber Leake Quintana Archer Brett Anderson Chase Anderson Porcello Happ Wainwright Martin Perez Hill Arrieta Lester Hamels Shoemaker If they want to seriously compete I would think so. Let me put it this way. I'm beating the drum for Kluber because if he's healthy he has the possibility of being a legit top of the rotation starter while I acknowledge he could be a shell of himself. Say you bring back Martin Perez. You know there's no ceiling of top of the rotation. He is what he is. I'm hoping they can use their location to their advantage and entice Kluber into a reasonable short-term deal. I think it's worth the risk.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jan 6, 2021 16:05:23 GMT -5
That's to me just too much, yet honestly, what he's probably going to get in a 3-4y deal. 2y? I'd be more likely to say yes, but there are going to be teams out there willing to go 3-4y I think and IMHO? I'd rather gamble a tad less than 12-13y on a potential front line guy.. Like Kluber and then try to get a 2nd year option, or another guy probably sign for less in Taijaun Walker. neither Walker, nor Odorizzi are 1-2's, but more like 3's in a rotation. I can't see spending 12-13m long term on that if they intend on offering Rodriquez a long term deal. If they do.. What's the AAV starting point then? 20m??
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 6, 2021 16:17:16 GMT -5
That's to me just too much, yet honestly, what he's probably going to get in a 3-4y deal. 2y? I'd be more likely to say yes, but there are going to be teams out there willing to go 3-4y I think and IMHO? I'd rather gamble a tad less than 12-13y on a potential front line guy.. Like Kluber and then try to get a 2nd year option, or another guy probably sign for less in Taijaun Walker. neither Walker, nor Odorizzi are 1-2's, but more like 3's in a rotation. I can't see spending 12-13m long term on that if they intend on offering Rodriquez a long term deal. If they do.. What's the AAV starting point then? 20m?? I know the circumstances aren't the same but in any other free agency 3 years for $36 million for a number 3/4 starter is a bargain. I really don't think 12 million AAV is too much for Odorizzi but to each their own.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2021 16:55:46 GMT -5
That's to me just too much, yet honestly, what he's probably going to get in a 3-4y deal. 2y? I'd be more likely to say yes, but there are going to be teams out there willing to go 3-4y I think and IMHO? I'd rather gamble a tad less than 12-13y on a potential front line guy.. Like Kluber and then try to get a 2nd year option, or another guy probably sign for less in Taijaun Walker. neither Walker, nor Odorizzi are 1-2's, but more like 3's in a rotation. I can't see spending 12-13m long term on that if they intend on offering Rodriquez a long term deal. If they do.. What's the AAV starting point then? 20m?? I know the circumstances aren't the same but in any other free agency 3 years for $36 million for a number 3/4 starter is a bargain. I really don't think 12 million AAV is too much for Odorizzi but to each their own. Normally it's not, but when they're trying to fix a lot of holes in a tight budget that's a lot of money to spend on a little bit above average starting pitcher, especially when they need another quality starter. I had in mind somebody who can do for them what David Price did for them - which is why I have Kluber on the brain and if they allocate that much on Odorizzi then it's tough to see them fix much else.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 6, 2021 18:08:30 GMT -5
McDaniel estimate on Odorizzi: 1/11 FG median crowdsource: 3/39 FG mean crowdsource: 2/21
Honestly, I'd be ok with any of those. Consider that Eovaldi got 4/68.
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Post by nomar on Jan 7, 2021 19:53:21 GMT -5
Really want Kluber, but I’d be pretty shocked if we don’t sign Odorizzi.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 16, 2021 10:58:49 GMT -5
I just don't see us getting Odorizzi. We just passed on Kluber at 1 yr/11 million which would have given us lots of flexibility moving forward. I think his ask is totally reasonable (Odorizzi), but I just don't think he's in the cards. I know C.B. has a plan, but dang if I know what it is at this point. It's almost like ownership has given him the order to not spend significantly on the roster for the upcoming season. Maybe we push our chip in next year, but this winter's moves have been totally curious at this point.
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