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Red Sox FA Target: Jake Odorizzi
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 16, 2021 11:50:13 GMT -5
I just don't see us getting Odorizzi. We just passed on Kluber at 1 yr/11 million which would have given us lots of flexibility moving forward. I think his ask is totally reasonable (Odorizzi), but I just don't think he's in the cards. I know C.B. has a plan, but dang if I know what it is at this point. It's almost like ownership has given him the order to not spend significantly on the roster for the upcoming season. Maybe we push our chip in next year, but this winter's moves have been totally curious at this point. Or they could just think Odorizzi is better at this point. Or even Rich Hill. Who knows
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2021 11:52:15 GMT -5
How do you know they "passed" on Kluber? He's working with Cressey and signed with the team Cressey works with - it's entirely possible they made a comparable offer and he just wanted to sign with the Yankees.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 16, 2021 12:57:36 GMT -5
Point taken. I was really just speaking to the point that we have missed out on practically every pitcher we've targeted so far. I must admit with the family ties to Ma, I was hoping Kluber would choose us if all things were equal. Maybe Bloom waits out the free agent market and targets some low dollar vets for the backend of the rotation and bullpen. Maybe he finds a few diamonds in the rough this way. That being said, it's usually easier to do that with a bullpen piece than finding a reliable starter.
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 16, 2021 13:13:24 GMT -5
Who needs starters when you can just have Openers go 4-5 outs per game......how exciting, can't wait, where do I send my check!!
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Post by manfred on Jan 16, 2021 13:41:33 GMT -5
Who needs starters when you can just have Openers go 4-5 outs per game......how exciting, can't wait, where do I send my check!! Don’t forget, they signed Andriese, and Bloom seeeeeeess something. Cy Young?
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Post by incandenza on Jan 16, 2021 13:46:49 GMT -5
Who needs starters when you can just have Openers go 4-5 outs per game......how exciting, can't wait, where do I send my check!! Is it "exciting" to have a starter? Games and plays are exciting, imo, not particular pitcher usage patterns.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2021 15:24:40 GMT -5
Point taken. I was really just speaking to the point that we have missed out on practically every pitcher we've targeted so far. I must admit with the family ties to Ma, I was hoping Kluber would choose us if all things were equal. Maybe Bloom waits out the free agent market and targets some low dollar vets for the backend of the rotation and bullpen. Maybe he finds a few diamonds in the rough this way. That being said, it's usually easier to do that with a bullpen piece than finding a reliable starter. They didn't "miss out" on Sugano, because no one offered him a contract he liked. The lost out on Kluber because he's been rehabbing with the Yankees director of health and performance, and the Yankees pitching coach got his pro start working for his private company (near Kluber's home) and was then a pitching development director in Cleveland in Kluber's years there. They targeted the guy who was freakishly the second best pitcher in all of MLB in September, and given the deal he got, they weren't the only team.
Update of the consensus FA starters after Bauer: Name Rnk Ave SD Masahiro Tanaka 1 1.1 0.3 James Paxton 2 3.1 1.4 ATL Morton 3 3.9 1.9 Jake Odorizzi 4 4.3 1.2 Taijuan Walker 5 4.5 2.0 Jose Quintana 6 7.6 3.3 KC Minor 7 7.7 2.3 Garre. Richards 8 8.6 2.9 NYY Kluber 9 8.7 1.3 ATL Smyly 10 10.7 3.8 TOR Ray 11 11.2 2.1 Adam Wainwright 12 12.1 4.8 J. A. Happ 13 13.3 2.7 Rick Porcello 14 14.6 2.1 Mike Leake 15 15.5 2.9 Chris Archer 16 15.6 1.2 Tyler Chatwood 17 17.1 2.8 Jon Lester 18 18.4 3.2 Brett Anderson 19 19.1 2.2 Cole Hamels 20 20.4 3.8 Matt Shoemaker 21 20.7 4.7 Rich Hill 22 21.3 3.6 Chase Anderson 23 21.5 2.9 Martin Perez 24 23.0 2.1 Jake Arrieta 25 24.1 2.2 Trevor Cahill 26 24.7 4.9 TB Wacha 27 26.5 1.3 SFG Desclafani 28 26.7 3.6 Kluber after his showcase moved up. So ...
In the consensus there's a clear dividing line between the top tier and the rest, between Walker and Quintana. Three of the top 5 in the second tier have signed, but none of the next 15 guys! That's an interesting pattern.
Only 2 of the 6 guys in the top tier have signed, one with the only team near his home that could afford him and one with the team whose rehab director was his own personal rehab director and were the second closest team to his home.
IOW, the best guy who has signed so far who didn't have his destination in mind already was ... Mike Minor.
Meanwhile, Tanaka, Paxton, Odorizzi, and Walker are still out there, and that's effectively the entire freely available top tier.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 16, 2021 15:28:17 GMT -5
I just don't see us getting Odorizzi. We just passed on Kluber at 1 yr/11 million which would have given us lots of flexibility moving forward. I think his ask is totally reasonable (Odorizzi), but I just don't think he's in the cards. I know C.B. has a plan, but dang if I know what it is at this point. It's almost like ownership has given him the order to not spend significantly on the roster for the upcoming season. Maybe we push our chip in next year, but this winter's moves have been totally curious at this point. Or they could just think Odorizzi is better at this point. Or even Rich Hill. Who knows Others have said it....maybe the Red Sox offered $12 or $13 million and Kluber just decided he would rather play for the NYY as he perceives them to be closer to a WS championship. Many Red Sox fans assume that if the RS raised their offer Betts would have resigned. I believe the Dodgers would have matched any offer the RS put up and in every instance Betts signs with the Dodgers! I think Mookie is glitz, and he was NEVER going to resign with Boston! MY POINT IS PLAYERS HAVE FREE WILL TO CHOOSE WHERE THEY WANT TO PLAY, AND THE PLAYERS ARE NOT FORCED TO TAKE THE HIGHEST OFFER. Bloom and the FO, I do not believe mind missing out on a 34 year old coming off 2 years of injuries! He would be another questionable injury risk in addition to Sale, E-Rod, and Eovaldi (I would not be surprised if the RS end up resigning Martin Perez....and for less than the $6.85 million he was due to be paid). Kluber would be 35 years old in 2022 when it is more likely that the Red Sox will contend. I would rather see a younger inning eater signed this offseason who will be with the RS for several years, than an old injury risk that might break down and cause the RS to be forced to sign a bunch of Godleys like last year!!
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 16, 2021 16:46:46 GMT -5
I mean if the Red Sox miss on Jake, what exactly is the back up plan? Seems like Bloom won’t be forced into overpaying this year, and all the pitchers so far are doing pretty.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 16, 2021 16:47:07 GMT -5
Well
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Post by kcbosox on Jan 16, 2021 17:13:02 GMT -5
You can get both Walker and Quintana (#3/#4 SP) for little more that Odorizzi. The key is picking up Hand, Yates (or Colombe) and maybe Melancon cheap. Then you’ve shortened the game, if (likely) starters don go deep. You cold even still trade Barnes for a good return. Also, maybe you could revive Myers/Morejon without much of a cap hit.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 16, 2021 17:34:36 GMT -5
Well here’s hoping, have a feeling Bloom has something pretty creative in mind....just need it to happen.
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Post by wildsox on Jan 16, 2021 17:43:55 GMT -5
Paxton doesn’t get mentioned much. Is he worth taking a chance?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 16, 2021 19:09:18 GMT -5
You can get both Walker and Quintana (#3/#4 SP) for little more that Odorizzi. The key is picking up Hand, Yates (or Colombe) and maybe Melancon cheap. Then you’ve shortened the game, if (likely) starters don go deep. You cold even still trade Barnes for a good return. Also, maybe you could revive Myers/Morejon without much of a cap hit. Melancon was a horror show the first time.....hard pass on that one.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 16, 2021 19:11:59 GMT -5
Or they could just think Odorizzi is better at this point. Or even Rich Hill. Who knows Others have said it....maybe the Red Sox offered $12 or $13 million and Kluber just decided he would rather play for the NYY as he perceives them to be closer to a WS championship. Many Red Sox fans assume that if the RS raised their offer Betts would have resigned. I believe the Dodgers would have matched any offer the RS put up and in every instance Betts signs with the Dodgers! I think Mookie is glitz, and he was NEVER going to resign with Boston! MY POINT IS PLAYERS HAVE FREE WILL TO CHOOSE WHERE THEY WANT TO PLAY, AND THE PLAYERS ARE NOT FORCED TO TAKE THE HIGHEST OFFER. Bloom and the FO, I do not believe mind missing out on a 34 year old coming off 2 years of injuries! He would be another questionable injury risk in addition to Sale, E-Rod, and Eovaldi (I would not be surprised if the RS end up resigning Martin Perez....and for less than the $6.85 million he was due to be paid). Kluber would be 35 years old in 2022 when it is more likely that the Red Sox will contend. I would rather see a younger inning eater signed this offseason who will be with the RS for several years, than an old injury risk that might break down and cause the RS to be forced to sign a bunch of Godleys like last year!! Called Martin Pérez maybe two hours before they sign him.
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 16, 2021 19:42:08 GMT -5
Paxton doesn’t get mentioned much. Is he worth taking a chance? Yes. If healthy, this guy is filthy. Injuries have always hampered him.. But, if he's cheap enough, they should absolutely make a run at him.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 16, 2021 19:47:41 GMT -5
You can get both Walker and Quintana (#3/#4 SP) for little more that Odorizzi. The key is picking up Hand, Yates (or Colombe) and maybe Melancon cheap. Then you’ve shortened the game, if (likely) starters don go deep. You cold even still trade Barnes for a good return. Also, maybe you could revive Myers/Morejon without much of a cap hit. Melancon was a horror show the first time.....hard pass on that one. I'm with you on Melancon.
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Post by manfred on Jan 16, 2021 20:15:08 GMT -5
Serious question: what is the excitement of signing Odorizzi? He was terrible in the truncated season, but set that aside as freakish. He averaged 1.6 bWAR the three season before that. Those last three seasons (setting aside last year) he had an ERA+ of 107.
Again... fine. He average 174 innings per 162 games the last few years so, well, someone has to. But unless he is costing in the range of Martin Perez, than whom he is not significantly better, I don’t see it.
Add: and I’m being serious: what is the case? Where does he fit in the plan?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 16, 2021 20:26:43 GMT -5
Serious question: what is the excitement of signing Odorizzi? He was terrible in the truncated season, but set that aside as freakish. He averaged 1.6 bWAR the three season before that. Those last three seasons (setting aside last year) he had an ERA+ of 107. Again... fine. He average 174 innings per 162 games the last few years so, well, someone has to. But unless he is costing in the range of Martin Perez, than whom he is not significantly better, I don’t see it. I see a potential 3 starter that could be had a for a relative bargain compared to previous seasons. A 3 year deal for 12ish AAV would be great in my mind. The Sox next world series caliber team is realistically a year or two away. Hes still young enough that I think he'd be a very helpful rotation piece for years 2 and 3 of that contact.
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 16, 2021 21:32:32 GMT -5
Serious question: what is the excitement of signing Odorizzi? He was terrible in the truncated season, but set that aside as freakish. He averaged 1.6 bWAR the three season before that. Those last three seasons (setting aside last year) he had an ERA+ of 107. Again... fine. He average 174 innings per 162 games the last few years so, well, someone has to. But unless he is costing in the range of Martin Perez, than whom he is not significantly better, I don’t see it. Add: and I’m being serious: what is the case? Where does he fit in the plan? For me Odorizzi, much like Perez, is a dependable starter who will take the mound every 5th day. In the six season's prior to 2020 he started 28 games or more in every one of them. With the exception of last season he has been a very healthy and durable starter. Last season was an anomaly as he had two injuries (non arm related). The first he was hit by a line drive and had some bruised ribs. Then he developed a blister (likely trying to ramp up too quickly after the delayed season).
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 16, 2021 21:34:28 GMT -5
If the Sox do sign this guy, it would be great rooting for him to pitch a shutout.
"I'll take a helping of goose eggs Odorizzi."
Sorry.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2021 23:48:43 GMT -5
Who needs starters when you can just have Openers go 4-5 outs per game......how exciting, can't wait, where do I send my check!! Is it "exciting" to have a starter? Games and plays are exciting, imo, not particular pitcher usage patterns. Perhaps not, but I remember deciding to get tickets based on the matchup. I remember counting the days in 2000 and realizing that it was lining up that Pedro was facing Roger at the stadium. I was lucky enough to see Mike Boddicker face Nolan Ryan to a standoff in 1990 before Kevin Romine homered off Kenny Rogers to win the ballgames. Starting pitching matchups can be exciting. Makes you want to buy tickets more than the typical bullpen game would or opener thing. I get your point, but at the end of the day, all that bullpen game and opener stuff is to get around the fact that a team doesn't have five viable starters they can trust in.
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Post by manfred on Jan 16, 2021 23:58:10 GMT -5
Is it "exciting" to have a starter? Games and plays are exciting, imo, not particular pitcher usage patterns. Perhaps not, but I remember deciding to get tickets based on the matchup. I remember counting the days in 2000 and realizing that it was lining up that Pedro was facing Roger at the stadium. I was lucky enough to see Mike Boddicker face Nolan Ryan to a standoff in 1990 before Kevin Romine homered off Kenny Rogers to win the ballgames. Starting pitching matchups can be exciting. Makes you want to buy tickets more than the typical bullpen game would or opener thing. I get your point, but at the end of the day, all that bullpen game and opener stuff is to get around the fact that a team doesn't have five viable starters they can trust in. I tell you this, too... starters who roll make for much faster games. Personally, my favorite part of baseball is watching an elite starter. Not even close. Even in this era, I get excited when Verlander et al pitch. The idea of watching guys go one or two innings doesn’t excite me. I’ve said before: yeah, you want to win, but how you win matters. Shifts, openers, the 3-true-option mentality... they make a less aesthetically pleasing game.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2021 1:51:17 GMT -5
Is it "exciting" to have a starter? Games and plays are exciting, imo, not particular pitcher usage patterns. Perhaps not, but I remember deciding to get tickets based on the matchup. I remember counting the days in 2000 and realizing that it was lining up that Pedro was facing Roger at the stadium. I was lucky enough to see Mike Boddicker face Nolan Ryan to a standoff in 1990 before Kevin Romine homered off Kenny Rogers to win the ballgames. Starting pitching matchups can be exciting. Makes you want to buy tickets more than the typical bullpen game would or opener thing. I get your point, but at the end of the day, all that bullpen game and opener stuff is to get around the fact that a team doesn't have five viable starters they can trust in. It would be a bummer if it ever got to a point that we didn't have ace starters taking the mound. But in practice, the question is whether you go with an opener or a #4 or #5 starter, and as far as that goes, who cares?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 22, 2021 10:10:29 GMT -5
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