Red Sox Acquire Adam Ottavino from the Yankees

I just wish the people who are bearish on this team would explain why - which players do you expect to underperform their WAR projections, etc. So far it's just been pages of "look how bad they were last year," ignoring the fact that the offense was pretty good (and can reasonably be expected to improve), and the pitching was world-historically awful (and is an entirely different staff from last season).

Fangraphs has the Yankees CBT payroll at $201.5M and Cots has them at $199M. So they have roughly ~$10M to spend before the threshold they're clearly trying to stay below as has been predicted all off-season. I'd imagine they want to save $4M-$7M to make in-season acquisitions so I'd predict they bring in Gardner on a team-friendly deal or add an additional reliever in the $3M-$5M, but not both. Of course they could be creative with further trades too but I think their offseason is wrapping up.

I think it's

A) This clearly isn't the 2018 team
B) They were atrocious last year and haven't gone out and added a superstar, which they did every offseason from 15-16 (Kimbrel), 16-17 (Sale), and 17-18 (JDM) (EDIT: And can't add potential stars from the system like they did in Devers ('16) and Benintendi ('17))

So having an offseason in which the team doesn't acquire a superstar and doesn't have a potential one knocking on the door feels like it's not moving forward, whereas it's a different story if you actually look (a) at the team itself, which can improve tremendously by just making the dumpster fire that was the pitching staff remotely competent, and (b) at the rest of the league, which I feel like most fans don't do.

Pitching: Nearly everything that could've gone wrong did go wrong after they made the decision to enter the season with a razor thing margin for error depth-wise by dealing Price to get under the CBT. Going with Weber at the 5 spot is one thing. Having Weber be the no. 3 starter entering the year due to the Sale and ERod injuries was another. Just having competent pitching is enough to push this team into the 80-win area. Like, Andriese doesn't make this rotation, assuming health, and he would've been the #2 or #3 entering 2020, easy.

The rest of the league: The Yankees, Dodgers, and probably now Padres are the class of MLB. After that... meh? There's a tier forming including the Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, and I believe, Red Sox with another couple moves. The Rays post-Snell trade look pretty weak, frankly, although maybe give 'em the benefit of the doubt and put them in that tier. But the Twins lineup isn't as intimidating as it once was, the Jays rotation is currently paper thin, and while the White Sox look like the best bet, imo, to jump into that next tier, they need to make that leap first. A playoff spot is there to be had, even without selling the future to make a run.

Well most of the winter they hadn't made any moves so yeah, had they not made moves they were going to stink, but we all knew they'd do something eventually, the question was how much and how impactful?

The split difference between "they're going to stink" versus they might be good is "they're probably middle of the pack."

I'm not sure it's better than either extreme. In baseball these days, it's best to be a playoff caliber team or to suck so you can trade your assets and pick higher up in the draft, and get larger international money and draft pool $. Easier to rebuild that way.

I think the Sox are in that murky 77 - 85 win area that probably doesn't get you into the playoffs but doesn't exactly have you challenging the 62 Mets either.

But if you're upper range is 85 wins, then sure, 87 or 88 can happen and with that a playoff spot.

For that to happen a rotation that features a guy coming off a missing season, two injury prone starters, and two career mediocrities (really, Perez and Pivetta have long track records of not being good), have enough go right.

We talk about the depth behind it, which IS better than it was last year. But most of that depth is made up of guys projected to be relievers who can start in a pinch. Whitlock is the most likely starter of that group. I still don't know if Houck is going to be more than a high leverage reliever who's death on righties, or if Mata's future is as a starter with mid-rotation or better ceiling or another hard throwing high leverage reliever. I know Andriese's track record is mediocre, but at least he's better than the replacement level drek they had last year.

And that is what I recognize Bloom is trying to - replace replacement level pitchers with at least mediocre ones. Those are the kinds of moves that keep you from going 65-97.

I don't trust the bullpen. Both Barnes and Ottavino issue a lot of free passes. As does Darwinzon Hernandez. A walk in the 9th in a 4-3 ballgame doesn't necessarily mean a loss, but it's damn anxiety inducing, as are all those 3-2 counts.

They don't really have a lockdown reliever, so it's not really hard to imagine some winnable games slipping away as well. Maybe some of those young starters wind up relievers who can help out as the year moves along.

As far as Chris Sale goes, I'm not counting on much of anything from him this year. Let him take his time getting back. He's not going to just take the hill and suddenly be vintage Chris Sale. We might never see that guy again or maybe we see that guy next year if there's a season.

I think their pitching will be average or below. So the offense will have to make up for it.

I already pointed out the question marks from seeing too much Hernandez against righties, if Arroyo can handle the playing time, if Benintendi and/or JD Martinez bounce back, if Duran and Downs can come up and contribute (I think the Sox really need that to happen, especially Duran). Can Dalbec play every day if continues to strike out too much and it makes his BA anemic?

The fact that there are so many legit questions doesn't mean they're all going to be answered in the negative, but the fact that there are so many means that there are going to be a bunch that goes right and a bunch that are problematic.

Which means a lot of risk. If it goes one way, you have a contender for the wild card. If it goes the other way you're selling off in July with a team that could lose near 90 games.

Honestly, I'd be fine with either of the two scenarios above, although scenario A would be a helluva lot more entertaining - it would take me back the days of the late 80s/early 90s when you knew the team could win 88 or 89 games and were entertaining, but you knew they'd get squashed by the true iron of the league - Oakland.

But to me the most likely scenario given what they've done is that they wind up a few wins over or under .500.

The good news for the Sox are that a lot of other teams are in the same scenario. I still think Toronto will be better, as I like that young offensive core and think they'll easily find a productive corner IF/DH, and I've always been high on Nate Pearson. I think the Yanks are better. I think the White Sox could be scary good and I think they will be the power of the league this year. TB took a step back, but I'm not sure how much of step that will be.

I still think Minnesota, Oakland, and I think the Angels are probably better. I think Houston is probably better, but that can be debated. I think Baltimore, KC, Seattle, Texas, and Detroit are worse and Cleveland probably is too.

Manfred, if this Red Sox team wins 88 games and makes the playoffs regardless of how long they last, AND they did not rob from the future - and Sam Kennedy has already said they're not going to be all in, then Bloom did a good job, especially if he nails the #4 pick in the draft and does well in the draft afterwards.

88 wins after the crap that was last year would be a helluva an achievement. Of course if if falls short, then I hope that Bloom succeeds picking 18th in the draft in 2022 or whatever it is.

I hope someday I can completely blow up a year of work so that I can get to be not nearly as good as the company was when I was hired but better than my worst and have people say I did a good job. And I hope that blown year, in my case, is spent in Vegas.

I just don't see the argument that if you can't field an elite team, it's better to suck for the Red Sox. That might be true for certain teams, not a large market team with tons of money. Look at the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres like which one do you want to copy?

If you can form an 88 win team without any large long-term deals, it makes perfect sense to do so. Heck you should just keep going and add a few more pieces. The beauty of this approach is if things don't work out, you have trade chips and start over next year. Everyone's upset about Kluber yet the Yankees winning helped them land him.

I truly believe some people are confused, like you don't want to be the Twins. Max out your resources long-term to be an 88 win team. It's a crazy good thing to be an 88 win team in a bridge year when you'll be adding a bunch of young talent because you sucked the year before.

Even if you are the Twins, the teams who have lost a record number of playoff games consecutively, you have to consider your franchise to be successful.  That losing streak is an anomaly.   The Sox owned it previously, until they started winning in 2003 and on.

It has been said multiple times, this team should never consider "throwing" away a year.  This is a legacy baseball franchise.  Some of the greatest players / teams have played on the same field we are privileged to visit.  The expectations should never be so low. 

If  they end up stinking, well that can happen, but we have to have a different standard to operate from

I mean, sure, if you're high on a recent hot mess of a reliever who reclaimed his rep during a short season, in a pair of pitcher's ballparks, who's moving to a severe hitter's park. I'd just as soon take Ottavino and hope he sees a similar resurgence, which Bloom has done.

Gee, we could use that logic with Andriese's hot month, now, couldn't we? Except that Rosenthal is now healthy, has better stuff, and a better track record when healthy.

If the Sox signed Rosenthal tomorrow, you'd be all over it as genius.

I just think most people, myself included don't want to see a repeat of 2019, not even 2020.

The worst spot you can be stuck in sports is stuck in the middle. In baseball, it matters a tiny bit less, because the draft is more of a crapshoot. It still matters, however.

Like in 2019. If the Sox sold, instead of went for it, could you have gotten-

Gaven Lux and Verdugo for 1 and a half years of Mookie Betts instead of the Downs package a half year late? (Or something similar to that?)

No one wants the Sox season to be over asap. We are here anyways, we want to see baseball for as long as we can. Winter stinks big time.

I'm pretty sure we got the right guy making decisions, so I'm not too worried about of this yet.