SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Acquire Adam Ottavino from the Yankees
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2021 20:29:25 GMT -5
Bear in mind that in a scenario in which they are in wild card position at the trade deadline, they will have gotten there largely without Sale - and then they will have added Sale. So they'd be going into the postseason, health permitting, with Sale and ERod and maybe even Richards at the top of the rotation.
What a bummer that would be - they wouldn't be able to trade Ottavino for a B prospect...
That is a LOT of ifs. Yes, sure, if everything goes exactly right, we should make a mad dash for it. I’ll see you at the parade. Well right - it's a conditional statement! Presupposing they're in wild card position at the end of July, which was the hypothetical that you posited, then they'll be in as good a position as anyone to make a run in the playoffs.
But of course maybe you'll get your wish and the Red Sox will suck this year from start to finish.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 25, 2021 20:36:58 GMT -5
That is a LOT of ifs. Yes, sure, if everything goes exactly right, we should make a mad dash for it. I’ll see you at the parade. Well right - it's a conditional statement! Presupposing they're in wild card position at the end of July, which was the hypothetical that you posited, then they'll be in as good a position as anyone to make a run in the playoffs.
But of course maybe you'll get your wish and the Red Sox will suck this year from start to finish. Your lips to God’s ears. And, seriously, my point was your scenario of lining up a meaningful Sale and healthy ERod and Richards is what I meant... even granting the WC hunt.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2021 20:42:59 GMT -5
Well, even I hedged on Richards...
|
|
|
Post by soxaddict on Jan 25, 2021 20:53:39 GMT -5
Am I misunderstanding or did the Red Sox take on $3M of Ottavino's salary for 2022? If so, that's my only knock on the deal. Why reduce the amount you have to spend for 2022, when they might have a shot at contention? And if the Yankees' motivation for the deal was shedding salary for 2021, that's even more reason why it seems unnecessary for us to have taken on the $3M. I'd probably rather have taken on Ottavino's full 2021 contract (if NYY would have paid the $3M in 2022 for the extra $1M or so of flexibility this year) or passed on the prospect (since reports suggest he's a middle reliever at best) in exchange for saving the $3M in 2022. The $3m won’t count towards 2022. It was a signing bonus to be paid in 2022, but has already been accounted for luxury tax purposes.
|
|
|
Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 25, 2021 21:06:47 GMT -5
Sure but "building" is a pretty general term. I take it to mean they're going to be disciplined with their balance of 'win now' vs. 'win long term' moves and prioritizing the latter. That said, even though this team has a long-term plan, I highly doubt anyone in the front office sees this as a completely non-competitive year. Given the 200mil payroll, they better not plan for a non-competitive year or they're likely to be packing their bags. But the Red Sox look to be competing for a wild card spot while the Yankees are competing for the WS. So 'competitive' is a bit of a vague term. Either way, if the Red Sox find themselves 6 games out of the WC come the trade deadline, Ottavino could fetch then a nice return. Yes the easy answer is to sell when you're out 6 games, but the question still remains, what if you're 2-3 games out with 5 or 6 teams in the mix? Remember NO expanded playoffs in play right now. It was the wrong call to go for it in 2019. Blew up in Dave Dombrowski's face and was fired a month after the trade deadline.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2021 21:26:50 GMT -5
Am I misunderstanding or did the Red Sox take on $3M of Ottavino's salary for 2022? If so, that's my only knock on the deal. Why reduce the amount you have to spend for 2022, when they might have a shot at contention? And if the Yankees' motivation for the deal was shedding salary for 2021, that's even more reason why it seems unnecessary for us to have taken on the $3M. I'd probably rather have taken on Ottavino's full 2021 contract (if NYY would have paid the $3M in 2022 for the extra $1M or so of flexibility this year) or passed on the prospect (since reports suggest he's a middle reliever at best) in exchange for saving the $3M in 2022. The $3m won’t count towards 2022. It was a signing bonus to be paid in 2022, but has already been accounted for luxury tax purposes. This is correct. His base salary is $8m/yr, and the $3m gets distributed evenly for purposes of the CBT, meaning he only counts for $9m this year. Because of how his contract is structured, the Red Sox are the ones paying the full $3m signing bonus (which is really more of a guaranteed buyout) plus his $8m 2021 salary, minus the $850k the Yankees threw in.
|
|
|
Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 25, 2021 21:55:09 GMT -5
I think this signing muddies the water on the plan, but what they do vis-a-vis the tax line will be most revealing. They are only a few million away, but they still have needs. If they think they are legit, they might have to go over. If they are still in wait til next year mode, they’ll likely look for cheaper options. To me, if they thought this year was real, they’d bring JBJ back. CF is still a hole, and he fits. But he’ll cost them too much to stay under the cap (at least without separate moves, obviously). So if he walks and they go with what they have, it is a sign that they are not really invested in this season. I do think the AO signing ironically makes the WC less attractive. I don’t want them holding guys at the deadline to be an early round loser. I’d rather be out of it and able to hold a fire sale — or, if there is a true miracle, a legitimate championship contender. Bear in mind that in a scenario in which they are in wild card position at the trade deadline, they will have gotten there largely without Sale - and then they will have added Sale. So they'd be going into the postseason, health permitting, with Sale and ERod and maybe even Richards at the top of the rotation.
What a bummer that would be - they wouldn't be able to trade Ottavino for a B prospect...
Not really sure what exactly you're expecting from Sale, but the Sox are hinting or even telling you what they're going to do with Sale. Expect a opener-ish type of starter until August, maybe late August, perhaps the whole year if theres any set backs when he comes back. I expect this to happen with Bloom taking this strategy from his Tampa Bay textbook. So yes, you get the best strikeout pitcher on the planet back at some point in 2021, but he's going to be very limited, perhaps for the whole year.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2021 22:01:23 GMT -5
My only real point was that if they're good without Sale they'll be even better with him and it's weird to root againsst the team making the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 25, 2021 22:15:29 GMT -5
It's not necessarily rooting against them, it's excepting a reality of a bridge year. Everything is being pointed to by even the front office in that way, without them necessarily telling you so that's there's zero interest from anyone besides the die hard fans. My take on it.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 25, 2021 22:21:22 GMT -5
My only real point was that if they're good without Sale they'll be even better with him and it's weird to root againsst the team making the playoffs. I am not rooting against them making the playoffs, per se. I am rooting against getting caught between playing for now and building a champion. I *would* prefer being terrible and turning over guys to improve to being an 88 game winner who makes moves to be... an 88 game winner next year. So if they can win the world series glued together with spit? Great! But the worst outcome is an 88 win season followed by an early bounce if it means getting older or more expensive. Ottavino is fine. The prospect is the win, and it’s a bigger win if they trade him later. But having an aging reliever for a year who walks after the season is otherwise not *building.* Perez is not building. Richards. If they get flipped, awesome. Or if some walk and free up money for a better roster, also awesome. But what I care about is who really matters starting in 2022. X. Devers. Sale (healthy). ERod. Verdugo. Then bismillah, Dalbec, Duran, Casas, maybe a few of these pitchers. And a number of guys not currently on our roster one way or the other. The question is what best leads to getting those future guys.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
|
Post by alnipper on Jan 25, 2021 22:51:54 GMT -5
Just a great deal for the Sox!
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 25, 2021 23:24:24 GMT -5
I am not rooting against them making the playoffs, per se. I am rooting against getting caught between playing for now and building a champion. I *would* prefer being terrible and turning over guys to improve to being an 88 game winner who makes moves to be... an 88 game winner next year. So if they can win the world series glued together with spit? Great! But the worst outcome is an 88 win season followed by an early bounce if it means getting older or more expensive. Ottavino is fine. The prospect is the win, and it’s a bigger win if they trade him later. But having an aging reliever for a year who walks after the season is otherwise not *building.* Perez is not building. Richards. If they get flipped, awesome. Or if some walk and free up money for a better roster, also awesome. But what I care about is who really matters starting in 2022. X. Devers. Sale (healthy). ERod. Verdugo. Then bismillah, Dalbec, Duran, Casas, maybe a few of these pitchers. And a number of guys not currently on our roster one way or the other. The question is what best leads to getting those future guys. It's not the NBA, tanking this year has no direct impact on next year. Building an 88 win team is fine as long as they don't add long-term money to the books so that they are perpetually mediocre. They didn't like or couldn't afford the building blocks this year which is fine. They add a lot of temporary pieces that help them win this year without limiting the future. Sounds text book to me, so why all the angst? That is, er, pretty much what I said... don’t add age or expense. Returning me to my on-going theme: I don’t care how they spend this year on salaries that clear before next season. But I’d prefer to get younger and more talented. They have not really done much of that, but they’re half way there: Ottavino, Richards (in one piece), etc can be flipped to make them sustainably better.
|
|
art
Veteran
Posts: 335
|
Post by art on Jan 25, 2021 23:51:19 GMT -5
Finally, the last pieces of the Sparky Lyle trade are consummated! And the PTBNL should be Danny Cater.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,031
|
Post by cdj on Jan 26, 2021 0:01:32 GMT -5
It’s not often you can get a decent pitching prospect with starter upside to take on a one year salary dump and have that dump also improve your team significantly.
I think this trade is A+
Even if Ottavino sucks and they can’t flip him for anything of value they have the prospect to make up for it
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2021 0:47:10 GMT -5
My only real point was that if they're good without Sale they'll be even better with him and it's weird to root againsst the team making the playoffs. I am not rooting against them making the playoffs, per se. I am rooting against getting caught between playing for now and building a champion. I *would* prefer being terrible and turning over guys to improve to being an 88 game winner who makes moves to be... an 88 game winner next year. So if they can win the world series glued together with spit? Great! But the worst outcome is an 88 win season followed by an early bounce if it means getting older or more expensive. Ottavino is fine. The prospect is the win, and it’s a bigger win if they trade him later. But having an aging reliever for a year who walks after the season is otherwise not *building.* Perez is not building. Richards. If they get flipped, awesome. Or if some walk and free up money for a better roster, also awesome. But what I care about is who really matters starting in 2022. X. Devers. Sale (healthy). ERod. Verdugo. Then bismillah, Dalbec, Duran, Casas, maybe a few of these pitchers. And a number of guys not currently on our roster one way or the other. The question is what best leads to getting those future guys. Manfred man, I'm with you. I'd love to see them capture 2013 again, but I take that as a once in a lifetime blessing. To expect that again would be crazy. Thankful we even saw that once. I agree with your main point. I don't want to see them get caught in between either. I'd like to see them make the playoffs or miss it by a really good margin, and when I say that make sure they're missing by that really good margin at the trade deadline so they can get something out of it in trades like they did last season. They got caught in between in 2019 and got nothing out of that season. The only thing I'll disagree with you about is that 88 win figure. I don't think they're an 88 win team quite honestly, although I'm sure I'll get pushback on that remark. But if they are an 88 win team, there's a decent shot they're in the playoffs, even if it's a one and done kind of deal. I think 88 wins gives you a decent shot at getting that 2nd Wild Card spot. The threshold of making the playoffs is lower these days with that additional wild card spot and 88 wins falls right in that range. I don't want to see the Sox get caught in that murky 77 - 85 win range. I'd like them to either struggle really bad so that they're unloading their assets to pick up future assets for the next Red Sox team that has true Championship aspirations, and selecting toward the top of what could be a deep draft - or play well enough that the bridge to the next truly great Red Sox team is smooth, entertaining, and has the possibility of catching that often elusive lightning in a bottle or at least make us think that they're truly on their way. It would be fun to be an upstart playoff team, one that didn't sell out the future, and has the feel of a team just getting started once the kids blossom a bit more.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jan 26, 2021 1:23:33 GMT -5
I am not rooting against them making the playoffs, per se. I am rooting against getting caught between playing for now and building a champion. I *would* prefer being terrible and turning over guys to improve to being an 88 game winner who makes moves to be... an 88 game winner next year. So if they can win the world series glued together with spit? Great! But the worst outcome is an 88 win season followed by an early bounce if it means getting older or more expensive. Ottavino is fine. The prospect is the win, and it’s a bigger win if they trade him later. But having an aging reliever for a year who walks after the season is otherwise not *building.* Perez is not building. Richards. If they get flipped, awesome. Or if some walk and free up money for a better roster, also awesome. But what I care about is who really matters starting in 2022. X. Devers. Sale (healthy). ERod. Verdugo. Then bismillah, Dalbec, Duran, Casas, maybe a few of these pitchers. And a number of guys not currently on our roster one way or the other. The question is what best leads to getting those future guys. Manfred man, I'm with you. I'd love to see them capture 2013 again, but I take that as a once in a lifetime blessing. To expect that again would be crazy. Thankful we even saw that once. I agree with your main point. I don't want to see them get caught in between either. I'd like to see them make the playoffs or miss it by a really good margin, and when I say that make sure they're missing by that really good margin at the trade deadline so they can get something out of it in trades like they did last season. They got caught in between in 2019 and got nothing out of that season. The only thing I'll disagree with you about is that 88 win figure. I don't think they're an 88 win team quite honestly, although I'm sure I'll get pushback on that remark. But if they are an 88 win team, there's a decent shot they're in the playoffs, even if it's a one and done kind of deal. I think 88 wins gives you a decent shot at getting that 2nd Wild Card spot. The threshold of making the playoffs is lower these days with that additional wild card spot and 88 wins falls right in that range. I don't want to see the Sox get caught in that murky 77 - 85 win range. I'd like them to either struggle really bad so that they're unloading their assets to pick up future assets for the next Red Sox team that has true Championship aspirations, and selecting toward the top of what could be a deep draft - or play well enough that the bridge to the next truly great Red Sox team is smooth, entertaining, and has the possibility of catching that often elusive lightning in a bottle or at least make us think that they're truly on their way. It would be fun to be an upstart playoff team, one that didn't sell out the future, and has the feel of a team just getting started once the kids blossom a bit more. Did someone say Manfred Mann??
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 26, 2021 6:57:54 GMT -5
Theold expression rings true. Covid makes strange bedfellows.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2021 8:48:26 GMT -5
Manfred man, I'm with you. I'd love to see them capture 2013 again, but I take that as a once in a lifetime blessing. To expect that again would be crazy. Thankful we even saw that once. I agree with your main point. I don't want to see them get caught in between either. I'd like to see them make the playoffs or miss it by a really good margin, and when I say that make sure they're missing by that really good margin at the trade deadline so they can get something out of it in trades like they did last season. They got caught in between in 2019 and got nothing out of that season. The only thing I'll disagree with you about is that 88 win figure. I don't think they're an 88 win team quite honestly, although I'm sure I'll get pushback on that remark. But if they are an 88 win team, there's a decent shot they're in the playoffs, even if it's a one and done kind of deal. I think 88 wins gives you a decent shot at getting that 2nd Wild Card spot. The threshold of making the playoffs is lower these days with that additional wild card spot and 88 wins falls right in that range. I don't want to see the Sox get caught in that murky 77 - 85 win range. I'd like them to either struggle really bad so that they're unloading their assets to pick up future assets for the next Red Sox team that has true Championship aspirations, and selecting toward the top of what could be a deep draft - or play well enough that the bridge to the next truly great Red Sox team is smooth, entertaining, and has the possibility of catching that often elusive lightning in a bottle or at least make us think that they're truly on their way. It would be fun to be an upstart playoff team, one that didn't sell out the future, and has the feel of a team just getting started once the kids blossom a bit more. Did someone say Manfred Mann?? Yup, it wasn't an accident. Doo Wah Diddy Diddy Dum Diddy Do! I like this one, too.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 26, 2021 9:23:55 GMT -5
That is, er, pretty much what I said... don’t add age or expense. Returning me to my on-going theme: I don’t care how they spend this year on salaries that clear before next season. But I’d prefer to get younger and more talented. They have not really done much of that, but they’re half way there: Ottavino, Richards (in one piece), etc can be flipped to make them sustainably better. Sorry, I got the impression that you were upset by this acquisition. I think it's going to be a better year than you're projecting. They were a top 5 offense in the AL last year and pitching has added health, development, and acquisitions so they're hopefully somewhere around league average. That's not elite but at least it's worth watching. Of Ottavino? I called it the best move of the off season!
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,928
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 26, 2021 10:19:14 GMT -5
That is, er, pretty much what I said... don’t add age or expense. Returning me to my on-going theme: I don’t care how they spend this year on salaries that clear before next season. But I’d prefer to get younger and more talented. They have not really done much of that, but they’re half way there: Ottavino, Richards (in one piece), etc can be flipped to make them sustainably better. Sorry, I got the impression that you were upset by this acquisition. I think it's going to be a better year than you're projecting. They were a top 5 offense in the AL last year and pitching has added health, development, and acquisitions s o they're hopefully somewhere around league average. That's not elite but at least it's worth watching. Their returning starting pitchers started just 26 of the 60 games. They combined for a 3.54 ERA.
Starting pitchers that they have (or will) jettison started 31 games and combined for a 7.84 ERA. And averaged 3.4 inning a start!
Replacing the latter group with Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, and, at mid-season, Chris Sale, does more than get you from bad to average.
We just have no experience with a team getting starting pitching that unimaginably awful for half a season's worth of starts. You can't just use your gut feeling. You have to crunch the numbers.
And in fact, FanGraphs is projecting the returning starters for a 4.89 ERA over about 95 starts and the math works out to 88 wins.
|
|
|
Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 26, 2021 10:38:53 GMT -5
Wow a little surprised to see how many people think we're going to be sellers (and not buyers) at the trade deadline. Do you really think this team is more likely to be way out of wildcard contention than close enough to make a run at it? Granted, anything can happen and its nice to have trade chips in the unfortunate case that we are sellers. That said, I can't see Chaim thinking to himself "we have no shot at the playoffs this year so I'm going to stock up on trade chips for teams that will need them"... Honestly, this trade makes the Yankees worse in all likelihood and I'm sure Chaim was happy to help out with that. You're right about this making the Yankees worse, however. They dump Ottavino and a prospect for cash relief so they can get washed up Gardner resigned and another relief pitcher worse than Ottavino lol. One last laugh. Ohh man the irony is so good. You traded a prospect and what would be the best available reliever in this market (who was on a one year deal), so you can be in the market for a worse reliever. Lol I wish Cashman would keep doing deals with the Sox. :-)
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 26, 2021 10:44:42 GMT -5
You're right about this making the Yankees worse, however. They dump Ottavino and a prospect for cash relief so they can get washed up Gardner resigned and another relief pitcher worse than Ottavino lol. One last laugh. Ohh man the irony is so good. You traded a prospect and what would be the best available reliever in this market (who was on a one year deal), so you can be in the market for a worse reliever. Lol I wish Cashman would keep doing deals with the Sox. :-) I don’t think it is that crazy. They have a closer and a dominant setup guy. Having a second dominant setup guy is a luxury. If they can get a middle reliever for half his price, it is less a loss and more a restructure. Obviously the Royals model of three consecutive killers is great, but it might be an inefficient use of money. Maybe they are weaker in middle inning guys than end guys? And while I’m happy to have German, from the other side, sending a #28 prospect to clear money hardly seems that bad. If we could trade Durbin Feltman or Marcus Wilson to clear $8 million, would people cry about it?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2021 10:53:07 GMT -5
You're right about this making the Yankees worse, however. They dump Ottavino and a prospect for cash relief so they can get washed up Gardner resigned and another relief pitcher worse than Ottavino lol. One last laugh. Ohh man the irony is so good. You traded a prospect and what would be the best available reliever in this market (who was on a one year deal), so you can be in the market for a worse reliever. Lol I wish Cashman would keep doing deals with the Sox. :-) If Trevor Rosenthal is still a free agent (I think he is) and the Yankees sign him, then how are they worse off than if they had kept Ottavino? Rosenthal looked really good with San Diego last season and might be back to what he was. I thought I had heard that their plan was to re-sign Gardner and bring in Rosenthal who could close if need be. I don't think that would be a bad move at all for the Yankees if that's what they do. It's not crazy that Rosenthal could be a big step up for the Yankees, somebody they would trust to close, as I don't think they trusted Ottavino to be able to close consistently.
|
|
|
Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 26, 2021 10:56:34 GMT -5
One last laugh. Ohh man the irony is so good. You traded a prospect and what would be the best available reliever in this market (who was on a one year deal), so you can be in the market for a worse reliever. Lol I wish Cashman would keep doing deals with the Sox. :-) If Trevor Rosenthal is still a free agent (I think he is) and the Yankees sign him, then how are they worse off than if they had kept Ottavino? I thought I had heard that their plan was to re-sign Gardner and bring in Rosenthal who could close if need be. I don't think that would be a bad move at all for the Yankees if that's what they do. THAT wouldn't be a bad move, but if the Yankees traded 8 million AAV for room under the CBT. You got to figure, there's 4-6 million left to spend. So...does that even get you a Trevor Rosenthal and a Gardner? Maybe. I doubt it.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2021 10:57:59 GMT -5
Yeah, with Chapman, Britton, and even Chad Green, I think it's completely reasonable to move Ottavino and take a slight step back with your other seventh-inning guy to save a few million.
|
|
|