SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox sign Danny Santana
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 5, 2021 10:23:03 GMT -5
I think most of this is going to shake out as the season gets going. I get kind of 2003 vibes in that sense. Work out the pieces over the first third of the year and go from there.
|
|
|
Post by rizdog on Mar 5, 2021 10:33:28 GMT -5
I love this move, absolutely no downside and they could catch lightning in a bottle. If Santana plays great and beats out Arroyo... great. If he starts in AAA, he can essentially replace any of the 26 MLB players because they have the option of using a 3 or 4 man bench. How often will one of the 26 not be on the 10 day DL? I actually mentioned Santana in the FA thread as a cheap option if they didn't sign JBJ or Mitch. My thinking was he could play 1B or RF vs some RHP. I didn't even consider he could also do the same at 2B. He fits the team great IMO.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Mar 5, 2021 12:50:22 GMT -5
No, he didn't. He said that he was the best defensive 2B on the team, and in fact talked about him finishing a lot of games at 2B after starting elsewhere. Which makes sense only if Arroyo is playing a lot of 2B (the available defensive metrics actually have Marwin as better at 2B than Kiké, so there's no way you move Kiké from CF to 2B unless Arroyo was the starter). And in fact Arroyo being on the team only makes sense if they want to see what he can do at 2B.
Meanwhile, we know what the lineup is against LHP: Renfroe in LF instead of Cordero, Kiké in CF, and Verdugo in RF. That's 1/3 of your games, typically. Marwin and Arroyo share 2B.
They have two possible lineups vs. RHP.
Lineup A has Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B. Lineup B has Kiké in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Arroyo at 2B.
Lineup B is better offensively against the average pitcher by a good deal. Lineup B is better defensively in CF and RF by a good deal. Lineup B is the same in CF and RF as the lineup vs. LHP, so it's less moving around for Kiké and Verdugo. Lineup A is better defensively at 2B, by a good deal (at least until Arroyo improves his 2B-specific skills; his range has been average or a bit better in a SSS).
In order for the regular lineup to be Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B, as everyone has it, they'd have to use lineup A more than 75% of the time. And based on the above, you'd be surprised if it's more than 35%. You do it based on how much Renfroe projects to hit today's starter better than Arroyo -- which would be somewhat unusual given their career numbers -- plus how much of a GB pitcher you've got going for you.
Again, there's no way they're keeping Arroyo on the team to start 1 game out of 6 at 2B (which is how much PT is left if Verdugo, Renfroe get the majority of total starts in CR and RF). They'd never find out how good he can be, and that roster spot would have made more sense going to Mitch Moreland. In fact, right now it would make more sense going to Santana.
Yes, Bloom has talked about Renfore hitting better vs. RHP and his ability to play RF, and about their being comfortable with Verdugo in CF. It does not follow at all that he was talking about an everyday lineup as opposed to a useful option. In fact, they then signed Kiké, who is a very solid CF starter. And even if they do that half the time vs. RHP, which I don't see happening, Kiké still ends up playing more CF than Verdugo, and Verdugo plays more RF than Renfroe.
Your overconfidence and massaging of the evidence continues to amuse, but this story has some partial support for you. It sounds like Cora may think that Verdugo's defense may be needed in RF more than in CF in Fenway.
www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/03/boston-red-sox-notebook-alex-verdugo-in-center-or-right-field-alex-cora-says-real-value-at-fenway-is-in-right.html
Though in today's press conference Cora says both that Verdugo will play center and right and then, in response to a reporter asking if he's thinking of having Verdugo play cf on the round and rf at home, said not necessarily, and also stressed that Renfroe is plenty strong enough in RF. Will have a lot of different lineups. Added: also said Verdugo will bat first or second. Started to say the athletic guys will bat at the top of the lineup, and the ... and then he caught himself and dint want to call anyone unathletic. He could have just said "less fast."
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2021 12:58:45 GMT -5
Whatever the platonic ideal lineup is, we rarely see it put out even when the team has a traditional one-guy-for-every-position roster, because of injuries, the need for days off, the proverbial "he's a little banged up," specific pitching matchup considerations, etc. And the way *this* roster is constructed, I bet that no specific lineup gets fielded more than like 20 times all season.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Mar 5, 2021 13:07:15 GMT -5
Whatever the platonic ideal lineup is, we rarely see it put out even when the team has a traditional one-guy-for-every-position roster, because of injuries, the need for days off, the proverbial "he's a little banged up," specific pitching matchup considerations, etc. And the way *this* roster is constructed, I bet that no specific lineup gets fielded more than like 20 times all season. I agree with this, but it will be interesting to see (as some have already suggested) if Cora finds some combination he prefers and sticks with it. I could see a pretty settled lineup developing (barring injuries forcing changes you cite and that have a good likelihood). Versatility is great, but I don’t believe even the most versatile player would not a) benefit from and b) prefer knowing his role. Kiké, just as an example, might be really good in multiple positions, but isn’t it better for him to take infield every day, study shifts at second, etc etc... rather than part this, part that? I don’t know. It just seems like most players (there are probably exceptions, sure) would benefit from committing 100% to a pre-established place. What that is might be a mystery right now, but that will be what the first part of the season is for. Batting order is the same deal. It seems like a lot of guys genuinely do better in some slots than others. Once Cora finds those slots, it is best to settle into them — not keep guys guessing.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2021 13:37:23 GMT -5
Whatever the platonic ideal lineup is, we rarely see it put out even when the team has a traditional one-guy-for-every-position roster, because of injuries, the need for days off, the proverbial "he's a little banged up," specific pitching matchup considerations, etc. And the way *this* roster is constructed, I bet that no specific lineup gets fielded more than like 20 times all season. I agree with this, but it will be interesting to see (as some have already suggested) if Cora finds some combination he prefers and sticks with it. I could see a pretty settled lineup developing (barring injuries forcing changes you cite and that have a good likelihood). Versatility is great, but I donât believe even the most versatile player would not a) benefit from and b) prefer knowing his role. Kiké, just as an example, might be really good in multiple positions, but isnât it better for him to take infield every day, study shifts at second, etc etc... rather than part this, part that? I donât know. It just seems like most players (there are probably exceptions, sure) would benefit from committing 100% to a pre-established place. What that is might be a mystery right now, but that will be what the first part of the season is for. Batting order is the same deal. It seems like a lot of guys genuinely do better in some slots than others. Once Cora finds those slots, it is best to settle into them â not keep guys guessing. I think what's most likely is defensive roles not necessarily shifting game to game but also from inning to inning. I can see Hernandez getting some starts in CF and then shifting to 2b in the late innings. I put out a theoretical lineup in which I had Kiké in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Marwin a 2b and qualified that with the distinct possibility they go with Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2b, but got a little pushback anyways suggesting that their plan is to go with Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2b. I have trouble believing that the Sox are really going to give Renfroe regular ABs against righties just like I question Cora leading Kiké off against righties, but I guess that's going to happen. That said, I can see plenty of times where a tough righty is on the mound in a big spot in late innings and Renfroe hits the bench for Marwin who then goes to 2b, sending Kiké out to CF and shifting Verdugo over to RF. I kind of believe that Cora is counting the days until Duran is ready so he can simply pencil Verudgo's name in RF, at least against righties as I think he'd much prefer to have Verdugo in RF given how he values RF defense at Fenway and he'd probably prefer not to make Renfroe a regular player given his track record against righties. And if Santana makes the team, then I'm not even sure what Cora's preference would be for him defensively. In my example I had Marwin PHing for Renfroe, but it could be Santana if he makes the team. Who knows?
|
|
fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
|
Post by fenwayfaithful on Mar 5, 2021 15:34:21 GMT -5
This signing leads me to believe we will never see the same Sox lineup more then once this year 😂
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Mar 5, 2021 20:52:42 GMT -5
I like it!
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Mar 5, 2021 21:31:27 GMT -5
Plawecki as the back up catcher, Santana starts in AAA and you go with 14 Pitchers to start. Can Santana opt out if he is sent to minors?? Or is there an opt out date??
|
|
|
Post by soxinjersey on Mar 5, 2021 21:33:46 GMT -5
Whatever the platonic ideal lineup is, we rarely see it put out even when the team has a traditional one-guy-for-every-position roster, because of injuries, the need for days off, the proverbial "he's a little banged up," specific pitching matchup considerations, etc. And the way *this* roster is constructed, I bet that no specific lineup gets fielded more than like 20 times all season. I agree with this, but it will be interesting to see (as some have already suggested) if Cora finds some combination he prefers and sticks with it. I could see a pretty settled lineup developing (barring injuries forcing changes you cite and that have a good likelihood). Versatility is great, but I don’t believe even the most versatile player would not a) benefit from and b) prefer knowing his role. Kiké, just as an example, might be really good in multiple positions, but isn’t it better for him to take infield every day, study shifts at second, etc etc... rather than part this, part that? I don’t know. It just seems like most players (there are probably exceptions, sure) would benefit from committing 100% to a pre-established place. What that is might be a mystery right now, but that will be what the first part of the season is for. Batting order is the same deal. It seems like a lot of guys genuinely do better in some slots than others. Once Cora finds those slots, it is best to settle into them — not keep guys guessing.
|
|
|
Post by soxinjersey on Mar 5, 2021 22:35:37 GMT -5
What do players want? How do they hope to be treated? I'm pretty confident that for most players the first consideration is simple, "Am I going to play?" Satisfaction and discontent on teams often revolves around this issue. The beauty of the three-man bench is that every position player (except catcher) can feel like a regular if Alex hands out PT something like this: Bogey, Devers, Dugie, JDM: 150 games; Bobby Bombs & Kiké: 130 games; Marwin, Franchy, Renfroe, Arroyo: 110 games. The last 5-6 of these players, at least, are going to say, "I'll play wherever you need me to play for the good of the team" (or they won't last long in Boston).
The fascinating question is whether players who specialize at a specific position ultimately become more proficient than more versatile players who practice at different spots from day to day. Personally, I'm confident that both approaches can work well, it's a question of culture, but as a coach I would use the second one because I believe that variety/change keeps players mentally fresher than continual repetition of the same drills and techniques, and I know that pretty much everyone who loves to play games likes to learn, and continue to learn, new things. Will taking infield help outfielders charge singles and prevent runners from taking an extra base? Will shagging flies help infielders catch more Texas Leaguers and generally become more comfortable with balls in the air?
Soccer and basketball are very different games from baseball, but it's interesting to see how much increased versatility has raised the technical excellence of these games. Twenty years ago, in hoops, guards played on the perimeter and centers played in the post. Now we've got guards finishing at the rim against 7-footers, and KD and Giannis controlling the game on the perimeter. I love watching the variety of this new, position-less game. Similarly, in soccer, more and more teams are pressing all over the field, forcing defenders to be great technicians and strikers to defend, while also allowing defenders to come forward and attack. Versatility, the expanding of capabilities, has enabled these games to re-invent themselves in what to me are exciting ways.
What's the next step for baseball? I hope it will be a move beyond "three true outcomes" to a faster, more dynamic game which uses the whole field instead of predominantly the pull side. To my mind, the growing emphasis on versatility is a step in this direction because you have to be a good, smart athlete to play numerous positions. These players are more likely, perhaps, to hit doubles than HR's. They might even steal a base from time to time.
The intriguing question for me is how the Sox will deal with those players with secure positions as the line-up is currently constructed. Specifically, will we see Devers and Bogaerts for 150 games at 3B and SS? Will we see JDM for 150 games at DH?
My guess is no and that the Sox will try to create a culture that embraces versatility for everybody, even core players. In practical terms, this versatility would give them more flexibility game-to-game in constructing line-ups, and it would encourage more in-game adjustments. Perhaps most important, it would make it much easier to cope with injuries. I think we'll see JDM for 30 games in the outfield, partially because (I think) historically, he has hit better when he plays in the field. I suspect we'll see Devers for 20 games at 1B. Bogey, I don't know. The club needs to transition him off SS over the next 3-4 years (and I'm sure he understands that). Several people have suggested LF as a good position for him, and I agree, especially in Fenway. RF, also, might be an interesting option in the near future. I suspect that he would embrace the challenge of becoming part of a great OF tradition in Fenway, and this move would also probably prolong his career.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 5, 2021 23:15:15 GMT -5
Plawecki as the back up catcher, Santana starts in AAA and you go with 14 Pitchers to start. Can Santana opt out if he is sent to minors?? Or is there an opt out date?? He starts in the minors and he does have an opt-out but I don't know the details of the timing.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 6, 2021 13:23:25 GMT -5
Can Santana opt out if he is sent to minors?? Or is there an opt out date?? He starts in the minors and he does have an opt-out but I don't know the details of the timing. Given that his contract has the same retention bonus as an Article XX(B) free agent, I'd bet good money his opt-out is June 1. He isn't even signed yet so he's going to be behind. I bet he starts at the alternate site with the thought being he's up by May 1.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 9, 2021 10:20:26 GMT -5
He starts in the minors and he does have an opt-out but I don't know the details of the timing. Given that his contract has the same retention bonus as an Article XX(B) free agent, I'd bet good money his opt-out is June 1. He isn't even signed yet so he's going to be behind. I bet he starts at the alternate site with the thought being he's up by May 1. I think one of the stories said that Santana gets $100,000 extra if he starts the season in the minor leagues, which would push his arrival date in Boston back at least a month. I would think he would be a great option if Franchy does not pan out as Santana also plays CF if needed.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2021 11:24:59 GMT -5
Given that his contract has the same retention bonus as an Article XX(B) free agent, I'd bet good money his opt-out is June 1. He isn't even signed yet so he's going to be behind. I bet he starts at the alternate site with the thought being he's up by May 1. I think one of the stories said that Santana gets $100,000 extra if he starts the season in the minor leagues, which would push his arrival date in Boston back at least a month. I would think he would be a great option if Franchy does not pan out as Santana also plays CF if needed. That's the retention bonus I was referring to. Not sure why that pushes him back a month - he'd get it if he's not on the MLB roster on opening day. It wouldn't be tied to minor league opening day in May, if that's what you were thinking on that. It does sound like he might be a shade behind given the procedure he had during the offseason.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 9, 2021 16:21:22 GMT -5
I think one of the stories said that Santana gets $100,000 extra if he starts the season in the minor leagues, which would push his arrival date in Boston back at least a month. I would think he would be a great option if Franchy does not pan out as Santana also plays CF if needed. That's the retention bonus I was referring to. Not sure why that pushes him back a month - he'd get it if he's not on the MLB roster on opening day. It wouldn't be tied to minor league opening day in May, if that's what you were thinking on that. It does sound like he might be a shade behind given the procedure he had during the offseason. who do you think has a more realistic chance of playing and being productive, or would the answer be both?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2021 16:23:02 GMT -5
That's the retention bonus I was referring to. Not sure why that pushes him back a month - he'd get it if he's not on the MLB roster on opening day. It wouldn't be tied to minor league opening day in May, if that's what you were thinking on that. It does sound like he might be a shade behind given the procedure he had during the offseason. who do you think has a more realistic chance of playing and being productive, or would the answer be both? Between whom?
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 9, 2021 17:19:11 GMT -5
who do you think has a more realistic chance of playing and being productive, or would the answer be both? Between whom? Santana and Cordero?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2021 17:47:36 GMT -5
Ah I see that now in your prior post. I don't think there's any chance they're going to replace Cordero with Santana. Santana is there to be bench depth. Cordero is four years younger and toolsy as hell - they're going to give him every chance to figure it out. The person whose roster spot is now on shaky ground is Arroyo.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 10, 2021 19:00:09 GMT -5
Ah I see that now in your prior post. I don't think there's any chance they're going to replace Cordero with Santana. Santana is there to be bench depth. Cordero is four years younger and toolsy as hell - they're going to give him every chance to figure it out. The person whose roster spot is now on shaky ground is Arroyo. If Arroyo is cut, which I think is a real possibility, who gets the majority of reps at 2B. The choices are Hernandez, Gonzalez, Chavis, (to a lesser degree Arauz and Munoz).
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 10, 2021 19:02:02 GMT -5
Ah I see that now in your prior post. I don't think there's any chance they're going to replace Cordero with Santana. Santana is there to be bench depth. Cordero is four years younger and toolsy as hell - they're going to give him every chance to figure it out. The person whose roster spot is now on shaky ground is Arroyo. If Arroyo is cut, which I think is a real possibility, who gets the majority of reps at 2B. The choices are Hernandez, Gonzalez, Chavis, (to a lesser degree Arauz and Munoz). Does Santana play much if any 2B?
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,774
|
Post by mobaz on Mar 10, 2021 21:05:08 GMT -5
I'm a little worried Xander will start on IL, which puts Kiké at SS and opens up a spot. I'm guessing Chavis would be first in line since he's on the 40, but a good spring showing would help.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,928
|
Post by ericmvan on Mar 10, 2021 21:35:03 GMT -5
I'm a little worried Xander will start on IL, which puts Kiké at SS and opens up a spot. I'm guessing Chavis would be first in line since he's on the 40, but a good spring showing would help. Kiké has barely played short of late and according to scouts (according to Pete Abraham) looked bad there. It makes sense that they tried him there first. Arroyo, Marwin, and Munoz all played there in the last 2 games.
And wow, Marwin was terrible there in 2018 and 2019. Right now, it looks like if Xander is on the IL, Arauz is the SS.
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Mar 10, 2021 23:10:42 GMT -5
I'm a little worried Xander will start on IL, which puts Kiké at SS and opens up a spot. I'm guessing Chavis would be first in line since he's on the 40, but a good spring showing would help. Kiké has barely played short of late and according to scouts (according to Pete Abraham) looked bad there. It makes sense that they tried him there first. Arroyo, Marwin, and Munoz all played there in the last 2 games.
And wow, Marwin was terrible there in 2018 and 2019. Right now, it looks like if Xander is on the IL, Arauz is the SS.
Why not Downs?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 11, 2021 0:03:35 GMT -5
Kiké has barely played short of late and according to scouts (according to Pete Abraham) looked bad there. It makes sense that they tried him there first. Arroyo, Marwin, and Munoz all played there in the last 2 games. And wow, Marwin was terrible there in 2018 and 2019. Right now, it looks like if Xander is on the IL, Arauz is the SS.
Why not Downs? He hasn't had an AB above AA and the Red Sox don't want to mess up his development. They want him to play every day whether it's at AA or AAA and conquer the level instead of being overmatched in the majors while playing SS, the position he's not likely to play in the majors, as he most likely winds up at SS. He's not a great SS by any stretch. If Bogaerts is injured, either Arauz, who is a solid defensive SS, and has had some major league ABs, or Jairo Munoz would probably get a shot at playing SS until X is ready. I do think the Sox are going to give Arroyo a good month or two to see if he can perhaps play semi-regularly at 2b. The initial plan is for Kiké at 2b, Verdugo in CF, and Renfroe in RF, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cora would prefer to sit Renfroe against righties and stick Verdugo in RF with Kiké in CF and Arroyo getting ABs at 2b. I figure Cordero might start the season on the DL while he catches up meaning Marwin Gonzalez probably starts in LF. They probably have until June 1st to bring up Santana and if injuries don't force their hand they might have him play every day at Worcester and then bring him up before his opt out. I'd think by then they should have room for him on the roster. They might change to 13 pitchers instead of 14 by then. Maybe Arroyo flunks his trial and makes the decision easy. There's still time to see what happens with Arroyo. And of course, none of this takes in the distinct possibility that by midseason Duran forces his way into the CF job. The Red Sox roster has a lot of moving parts in it.
|
|
|