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Red Sox sign Danny Santana
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 4, 2021 14:33:14 GMT -5
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 14:58:50 GMT -5
FYI Santana a done deal now - minor league deal.
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Post by redsox3in10 on Mar 4, 2021 15:01:12 GMT -5
Interesting. He was great the year before last. Can play all over the diamond. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 4, 2021 15:35:08 GMT -5
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 15:35:23 GMT -5
Technically a minor league deal but seems as though he’s going to hit the Majors sooner rather than later
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Post by lancect on Mar 4, 2021 15:54:31 GMT -5
I like this move a lot, Santana if healthy is an extremely versatile infield/outfield player with speed who only two years ago had a super season for the Rangers until he was injured and missed all of last year
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Post by rasimon on Mar 4, 2021 17:33:57 GMT -5
I like this move a lot, Santana if healthy is an extremely versatile infield/outfield player with speed who only two years ago had a super season for the Rangers until he was injured and missed all of last year Yuk |
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Post by redsox3in10 on Mar 4, 2021 18:02:01 GMT -5
I like this move a lot, Santana if healthy is an extremely versatile infield/outfield player with speed who only two years ago had a super season for the Rangers until he was injured and missed all of last year Yuk I don't know, but I'd be pretty happy with his 2019 season overall. Wish his OBP was higher, but this looks pretty good to me: 474 AB 28 HR 21 SB .283/.324/.534 OPS+ 112 |
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Post by rasimon on Mar 4, 2021 18:42:23 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 4, 2021 19:20:59 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 4, 2021 19:49:01 GMT -5
There's no room for him in MLB if everyone is healthy, but he's terrific insurance against a major injury or a disappointing performance by Arroyo, whom they seem to be high on, to the extent of giving him a real shot at 2B at least against RHP -- I think you'll see that, with Kiké in CF, more often than Renfroe in RF, Verdugo in CF, and Kiké at 2B. Maybe quite a bit more often.
Basically, they now have him and Arroyo as candidates for a single roster spot, with a chance for both to get regular PT for two months (Arroyo) or a month (Santana) to get a handle on who they prefer. And if there's a long-term injury, they can go with both.
Santana has started at least 12 games at every position except pitcher and catcher (the 12 is at 3B). Kiké cannot match that -- he's only started 11 games at 1B.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 4, 2021 20:43:30 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 4, 2021 20:49:33 GMT -5
I know they need a lot of pitchers, but I worry about the three-man bench. Wouldn't you be hesitant to use the last non-catcher on your bench, fearing that if anything happened, you'd wind up with JD in the OF or Vasquez in the IF, and nobody to pinch run or hit for the pitcher? With a four-man bench you can use two of the utility guys every day (pinch-hitting, pinch-running, or going in for D), and still have one in your back pocket. It'd be nice to have a fourth guy like Santana on the bench if they can swing it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 20:54:13 GMT -5
I know they need a lot of pitchers, but I worry about the three-man bench. Wouldn't you be hesitant to use the last non-catcher on your bench, fearing that if anything happened, you'd wind up with JD in the OF or Vasquez in the IF, and nobody to pinch run or hit for the pitcher? With a four-man bench you can use two of the utility guys every day (pinch-hitting, pinch-running, or going in for D), and still have one in your back pocket. It'd be nice to have a fourth guy like Santana on the bench if they can swing it. Not really. With this many versatile guys, they can swing it, so long as everyone is healthy. How many Red Sox games have you seen in which they even used two bench guys? Everyone in the roster save for the two guys entrenched on the left side of the infield plays multiple positions. There will be at least 2 guys who play both infield and outfield, 3 if they wind up with Santana (or Munoz I guess) instead of Arroyo. The problem comes when a guy is dinged up and needs, say, 3-5 days off. That's when it'd get tough. I think they'd need a quick roster move trigger finger in that case. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 4, 2021 21:27:35 GMT -5
I know they need a lot of pitchers, but I worry about the three-man bench. Wouldn't you be hesitant to use the last non-catcher on your bench, fearing that if anything happened, you'd wind up with JD in the OF or Vasquez in the IF, and nobody to pinch run or hit for the pitcher? With a four-man bench you can use two of the utility guys every day (pinch-hitting, pinch-running, or going in for D), and still have one in your back pocket. It'd be nice to have a fourth guy like Santana on the bench if they can swing it. Think this sign knocks back Munoz a slot and does nothing but improve the odds of a short bench, which is no big deal with AAA team so close if injury happens and when may be more worried with regards to team pitching than the offense at each position. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 23:04:16 GMT -5
I think for a guy that's either the 26th or 27th guy on a 26 man roster, it's a pretty good move. I mean how many bottom of the roster guys are capable of whacking 25 homers if given a full season? He's a switch-hitter so you can use him off the bench. He can run a bit and play seven different positions and he can be stashed away at Pawtucket for a couple of months if need be. Honestly I'd rather have him as the 26th guy on the roster than a 14th pitcher like Austin Brice or Phillips Valdez. I would guess that in a couple of months they will go with 4 bench guys. I figure a pitcher will get hurt and they'll call up Duran. And one of their offensive guys will get hurt and that should allow Santana to make the team. I guess maybe it's a two month audition for Arroyo and if he doesn't pass, it's onto Santana. At some point Munoz might figure in. I don't remember so many utility guys on the Red Sox (regulars or bench). |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 4, 2021 23:29:57 GMT -5
I like this move a lot, Santana if healthy is an extremely versatile infield/outfield player with speed who only two years ago had a super season for the Rangers until he was injured and missed all of last year Yuk It's a minor league deal. At worst he is bad in the minors or at the ATS and then he doesn't impact the big league team at all. It's a no-risk, huge-reward signing. If you don't believe he can tap into that upside, sure, but I don't think there's a minor league deal on the planet that justifies a "yuck" reaction, outside of guys with off field issues or whatever. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 5, 2021 1:29:37 GMT -5
There's no room for him in MLB if everyone is healthy, but he's terrific insurance against a major injury or a disappointing performance by Arroyo, whom they seem to be high on, to the extent of giving him a real shot at 2B at least against RHP -- I think you'll see that, with Kiké in CF, more often than Renfroe in RF, Verdugo in CF, and Kiké at 2B. Maybe quite a bit more often.
Basically, they now have him and Arroyo as candidates for a single roster spot, with a chance for both to get regular PT for two months (Arroyo) or a month (Santana) to get a handle on who they prefer. And if there's a long-term injury, they can go with both.
Santana has started at least 12 games at every position except pitcher and catcher (the 12 is at 3B). Kiké cannot match that -- he's only started 11 games at 1B.
I think people are overthinking the player versatility. We will see lots of lineups. But the core guys are going to play the same position most everyday. That is going to include KIKI at 2B, And verdugo in CF ( at least until Duran is given a shot ) |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 5, 2021 1:42:48 GMT -5
There's no room for him in MLB if everyone is healthy, but he's terrific insurance against a major injury or a disappointing performance by Arroyo, whom they seem to be high on, to the extent of giving him a real shot at 2B at least against RHP -- I think you'll see that, with Kiké in CF, more often than Renfroe in RF, Verdugo in CF, and Kiké at 2B. Maybe quite a bit more often. Basically, they now have him and Arroyo as candidates for a single roster spot, with a chance for both to get regular PT for two months (Arroyo) or a month (Santana) to get a handle on who they prefer. And if there's a long-term injury, they can go with both. Santana has started at least 12 games at every position except pitcher and catcher (the 12 is at 3B). Kiké cannot match that -- he's only started 11 games at 1B.
I think people are overthinking the player versatility. We will see lots of lineups. But the core guys are going to play the same position most everyday. That is going to include KIKI at 2B, And verdugo in CF ( at least until Duran is given a shot ) Cora has gone on record in saying that he's going to move Kiké around. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 5, 2021 1:52:19 GMT -5
I think people are overthinking the player versatility. We will see lots of lineups. But the core guys are going to play the same position most everyday. That is going to include KIKI at 2B, And verdugo in CF ( at least until Duran is given a shot ) Cora has gone on record in saying that he's going to move Kiké around. Also clearly said his best position in 2B. Obviously he is going to keep options open. And I’m not saying he won’t end up playing around the field, I’d be very surprised as the season goes if he is not at 2B most all of the time. I’d doesn't make sense to move multiple players around the diamond. The lineup and team is far from decided and obviously it’s a process in motion, but I’d be shocked if it’s a massive rotation. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 5, 2021 2:50:16 GMT -5
Cora has gone on record in saying that he's going to move Kiké around. Obviously he is going to keep options open. And Iâm not saying he wonât end up playing around the field, Iâd be very surprised as the season goes if he is not at 2B most all of the time. Iâd doesn't make sense to move multiple players around the diamond. The lineup and team is far from decided and obviously itâs a process in motion, but Iâd be shocked if itâs a massive rotation. No, he didn't. He said that he was the best defensive 2B on the team, and in fact talked about him finishing a lot of games at 2B after starting elsewhere. Which makes sense only if Arroyo is playing a lot of 2B (the available defensive metrics actually have Marwin as better at 2B than Kiké, so there's no way you move Kiké from CF to 2B unless Arroyo was the starter). And in fact Arroyo being on the team only makes sense if they want to see what he can do at 2B.
Meanwhile, we know what the lineup is against LHP: Renfroe in LF instead of Cordero, Kiké in CF, and Verdugo in RF. That's 1/3 of your games, typically. Marwin and Arroyo share 2B.
They have two possible lineups vs. RHP.
Lineup A has Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B. Lineup B has Kiké in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Arroyo at 2B.
Lineup B is better offensively against the average pitcher by a good deal. Lineup B is better defensively in CF and RF by a good deal. Lineup B is the same in CF and RF as the lineup vs. LHP, so it's less moving around for Kiké and Verdugo. Lineup A is better defensively at 2B, by a good deal (at least until Arroyo improves his 2B-specific skills; his range has been average or a bit better in a SSS).
In order for the regular lineup to be Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B, as everyone has it, they'd have to use lineup A more than 75% of the time. And based on the above, you'd be surprised if it's more than 35%. You do it based on how much Renfroe projects to hit today's starter better than Arroyo -- which would be somewhat unusual given their career numbers -- plus how much of a GB pitcher you've got going for you.
Again, there's no way they're keeping Arroyo on the team to start 1 game out of 6 at 2B (which is how much PT is left if Verdugo, Renfroe get the majority of total starts in CR and RF). They'd never find out how good he can be, and that roster spot would have made more sense going to Mitch Moreland. In fact, right now it would make more sense going to Santana.
Yes, Bloom has talked about Renfore hitting better vs. RHP and his ability to play RF, and about their being comfortable with Verdugo in CF. It does not follow at all that he was talking about an everyday lineup as opposed to a useful option. In fact, they then signed Kiké, who is a very solid CF starter. And even if they do that half the time vs. RHP, which I don't see happening, Kiké still ends up playing more CF than Verdugo, and Verdugo plays more RF than Renfroe.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 5, 2021 5:27:56 GMT -5
The more I think about this acquisition, the more interesting it gets. I'm starting with the assumption that 2015 through 2018 were killed by his anxiety issues. So here's the career. Slash lines have been normalized to the average line over his career.
Vs. RHP: Year PA* BA OBP SA wRC+ SO+ BB+ HRC+ BABIP+ KW+ W/K+
2014 281 .328 .365 .515 137 99 59 67 130 89 66
2015-18 543 .228 .277 .312 53 111 50 27 90 94 53
2019 327 .287 .319 .508 110 136 48 148 117 112 43
The similarity in SA, 2014 vs. 2019, masks a real change in approach. His rookie numbers were inflated by an insane .392 BABIP; he hit a ton of ground balls that year (from both sides) and had an OPS+ of 183 on them. He's become much more of a traditional slugger while his walk rate and strike zone command (W/K+) has actually gotten a bit worse.
Vs. LHP: Year PA* BA OBP SA wRC+ SO+ BB+ HRC+ BABIP+ KW+ W/K+
2014 122 .302 .344 .478 121 172 79 75 147 147 54
2015-18 181 .187 .257 .261 37 135 42 17 78 110 39
2019 145 .277 .322 .505 112 156 83 172 120 136 61
Similar pattern, except he's walked more and gone deeper into counts (KW+) from the right side.
So, if he's actually the 2014 / 2019 guy, he's probably your best 2B, and a better choice for the roster spot that's currently Arroyo's. He barely played there before 2019, when it was his #3 position after 1B and CF (and I'd love to know how many 1B in MLB history started their next-most games in CF, minimum 40 and 20 starts respectively!). He started 15 games there and was good.
But here's the catch: if you make him the starting 2B, he's a free agent at the end of the year. Whereas you'd have three more years of control over Arroyo.
Now, if only one of these guys has been impressive as June 1 approaches, you have no dilemma. If Arroyo has been a disappointment, you can try to pass him through waivers again and give the roster spot and most of the 2B starts to Santana. (That could happen sooner, of course.) In the opposite scenario, you just leave Santana to decide whether he wants to opt out ... and if he doesn't, then maybe he gets it together and we move on to ...
The scenario where both guys are valuable. And here it depends on Jeter Downs. If Downs is still looking like the 2022 second-baseman, then you can trade Arroyo for a solid return, and use Santana the rest of the way, with the option of trading him at the deadline. If it looks like Down's ETA is mid 2022, you can trade Santana and keep Arroyo.
Of course, making that call would not be easy, and if you get it wrong, it can fairly suck. But it's just one more way this season is really interesting.
Note that Santana's versatility serves a different purpose entirely: if there's a major injury (60-day IL), he joins the active roster and you still have a guy on the bench who can play everywhere, namely Marwin. Between him and Kiké, you'd be able to fill any hole in the starting lineup that you might have.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 5, 2021 7:10:10 GMT -5
Also clearly said his best position in 2B. Obviously he is going to keep options open. And Iâm not saying he wonât end up playing around the field, Iâd be very surprised as the season goes if he is not at 2B most all of the time. Iâd doesn't make sense to move multiple players around the diamond. The lineup and team is far from decided and obviously itâs a process in motion, but Iâd be shocked if itâs a massive rotation. No, he didn't. He said that he was the best defensive 2B on the team, and in fact talked about him finishing a lot of games at 2B after starting elsewhere. Which makes sense only if Arroyo is playing a lot of 2B (the available defensive metrics actually have Marwin as better at 2B than Kiké, so there's no way you move Kiké from CF to 2B unless Arroyo was the starter). And in fact Arroyo being on the team only makes sense if they want to see what he can do at 2B.
Meanwhile, we know what the lineup is against LHP: Renfroe in LF instead of Cordero, Kiké in CF, and Verdugo in RF. That's 1/3 of your games, typically. Marwin and Arroyo share 2B.
They have two possible lineups vs. RHP.
Lineup A has Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B. Lineup B has Kiké in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Arroyo at 2B.
Lineup B is better offensively against the average pitcher by a good deal. Lineup B is better defensively in CF and RF by a good deal. Lineup B is the same in CF and RF as the lineup vs. LHP, so it's less moving around for Kiké and Verdugo. Lineup A is better defensively at 2B, by a good deal (at least until Arroyo improves his 2B-specific skills; his range has been average or a bit better in a SSS).
In order for the regular lineup to be Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF, and Kiké at 2B, as everyone has it, they'd have to use lineup A more than 75% of the time. And based on the above, you'd be surprised if it's more than 35%. You do it based on how much Renfroe projects to hit today's starter better than Arroyo -- which would be somewhat unusual given their career numbers -- plus how much of a GB pitcher you've got going for you.
Again, there's no way they're keeping Arroyo on the team to start 1 game out of 6 at 2B (which is how much PT is left if Verdugo, Renfroe get the majority of total starts in CR and RF). They'd never find out how good he can be, and that roster spot would have made more sense going to Mitch Moreland. In fact, right now it would make more sense going to Santana.
Yes, Bloom has talked about Renfore hitting better vs. RHP and his ability to play RF, and about their being comfortable with Verdugo in CF. It does not follow at all that he was talking about an everyday lineup as opposed to a useful option. In fact, they then signed Kiké, who is a very solid CF starter. And even if they do that half the time vs. RHP, which I don't see happening, Kiké still ends up playing more CF than Verdugo, and Verdugo plays more RF than Renfroe.
Your overconfidence and massaging of the evidence continues to amuse, but this story has some partial support for you. It sounds like Cora may think that Verdugo's defense may be needed in RF more than in CF in Fenway.
www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/03/boston-red-sox-notebook-alex-verdugo-in-center-or-right-field-alex-cora-says-real-value-at-fenway-is-in-right.html
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Post by lancect on Mar 5, 2021 8:47:12 GMT -5
I like this move a lot, Santana if healthy is an extremely versatile infield/outfield player with speed who only two years ago had a super season for the Rangers until he was injured and missed all of last year Yuk GEEZ, yuk isn't the way I would describe something in this forum... if you don't like a move the Red Sox are making, you outta explain a little more about why. I think picking Danny Santana on a minor league contract is a good move, even though some might be concerned he would take playing time away from the younger guys, but I believe if healthy he offers more than Marwin does in terms of versatility and speed, I followed him closely during 2019 and he consistently delivered in all situations and if he were able to do something similar for us in 2O21 he would be our MVP. Obviously I am not expecting him to do this but I like the move a lot, that's all, if I were to use one word in context to describe it, it would be OK |
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2021 10:06:15 GMT -5
I know they need a lot of pitchers, but I worry about the three-man bench. Wouldn't you be hesitant to use the last non-catcher on your bench, fearing that if anything happened, you'd wind up with JD in the OF or Vasquez in the IF, and nobody to pinch run or hit for the pitcher? With a four-man bench you can use two of the utility guys every day (pinch-hitting, pinch-running, or going in for D), and still have one in your back pocket. It'd be nice to have a fourth guy like Santana on the bench if they can swing it. Not really. With this many versatile guys, they can swing it, so long as everyone is healthy. How many Red Sox games have you seen in which they even used two bench guys? Everyone in the roster save for the two guys entrenched on the left side of the infield plays multiple positions. There will be at least 2 guys who play both infield and outfield, 3 if they wind up with Santana (or Munoz I guess) instead of Arroyo. The problem comes when a guy is dinged up and needs, say, 3-5 days off. That's when it'd get tough. I think they'd need a quick roster move trigger finger in that case. Their positional versatility is solid, but I worry about their situational versatility. Specifically, they seem awfully weak against righties. What happens when the other team brings in a righty reliever to face Renfroe (and his career 87 wRC+ vs. righties) or Kiké (82)? Pinch-hit with Marwin? He's a career 100, but 79 and 88 the last two seasons. And he'd be the best option. But that's assuming he's not in the lineup already which, with such a short bench, he often will be.
In his good season Santana had no real splits - 112 and 110 vs. Ls and Rs. So if we're getting the good version of him he could help with that.
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