SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Select Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)
|
Post by philarhody on Jul 13, 2021 11:43:59 GMT -5
This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light. I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Marcelo Mayer is so far above any of the prospects you mentioned, even Benintendi. Also if you really want to see the comps people made to all those shitty picks (save for Benintendi), there is a search bar in the top right hand of the forum page.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,806
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Jul 13, 2021 12:06:18 GMT -5
I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Marcelo Mayer is so far above any of the prospects you mentioned, even Benintendi. Also if you really want to see the comps people made to all those shitty picks (save for Benintendi), there is a search bar in the top right hand of the forum page. It’s the MLB draft. Most of these guys will flame out, even a lot of the “safe” college bats.
|
|
|
Post by philarhody on Jul 13, 2021 12:08:48 GMT -5
Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Marcelo Mayer is so far above any of the prospects you mentioned, even Benintendi. Also if you really want to see the comps people made to all those shitty picks (save for Benintendi), there is a search bar in the top right hand of the forum page. It’s the MLB draft. Most of these guys will flame out, even a lot of the “safe” college bats. Yes. This is true. Most guys drafted in the major league draft flame out.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 13, 2021 13:27:28 GMT -5
I don't think he was quite a consensus 1-1; it seemed that most analysts felt there was a top tier of 6 or so with very little separation between them. (The Rangers, for one, obviously didn't think he was the top player.) Also it was regarded as a relatively weak draft at the top so it's not like you could compare Mayer to, say, how Harper was viewed at the time of the draft. Yes, that is why I put my disclaimer. I never said Mayer is generational, as my Griffey Jr. comment makes clear. I think the majority of what we read felt that Mayer was the best guy to draft. One well respected publication had Lawlar ahead of Mayer. Yes, the Rangers felt that Leiter was their best option. And the Tigers passed up on Mayer for Jobe so they felt he was their best option. I would say the Pirates felt that signing Davis would allow them to have a better pick in the 2nd round as they would save money over drafting Mayer. Either way, I'm damn excited with what he can be. I feel they have a potential all-star, one with a great probability of reaching that than your typical Michael Chavis first round draft pick, which is what I was pushing back against. I think we can agree not all first round picks are equal, nor are the expectations, especially when a draftee is toward the end of the first round. And all those guys mentioned initially, with the exception of Groome, none of them were regarded as potentially the best player in the draft. Mayer was. What were we all saying about Benintendi?
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,334
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 13, 2021 13:29:34 GMT -5
I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Marcelo Mayer is so far above any of the prospects you mentioned, even Benintendi. Also if you really want to see the comps people made to all those shitty picks (save for Benintendi), there is a search bar in the top right hand of the forum page. You're entitled to your opinion but I think the kid deserves a shot to develop before making proclamations he is going to struggle against major league pitching.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 13:40:44 GMT -5
Yes, that is why I put my disclaimer. I never said Mayer is generational, as my Griffey Jr. comment makes clear. I think the majority of what we read felt that Mayer was the best guy to draft. One well respected publication had Lawlar ahead of Mayer. Yes, the Rangers felt that Leiter was their best option. And the Tigers passed up on Mayer for Jobe so they felt he was their best option. I would say the Pirates felt that signing Davis would allow them to have a better pick in the 2nd round as they would save money over drafting Mayer. Either way, I'm damn excited with what he can be. I feel they have a potential all-star, one with a great probability of reaching that than your typical Michael Chavis first round draft pick, which is what I was pushing back against. I think we can agree not all first round picks are equal, nor are the expectations, especially when a draftee is toward the end of the first round. And all those guys mentioned initially, with the exception of Groome, none of them were regarded as potentially the best player in the draft. Mayer was. What were we all saying about Benintendi? I remember happiness at him being drafted but I don't remember the groundswell of "we might have just gotten the perhaps consensus possible best player in the draft" I don't remember Benintendi being rumored to go 1-1. Groome was rumored to go 1-1 and Mayer was strongly rumored to go 1-1. But as we all know there can be a greater degree of risk with a pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 13:41:49 GMT -5
Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Marcelo Mayer is so far above any of the prospects you mentioned, even Benintendi. Also if you really want to see the comps people made to all those shitty picks (save for Benintendi), there is a search bar in the top right hand of the forum page. You're entitled to your opinion but I think the kid deserves a shot to develop before making proclamations he is going to struggle against major league pitching. So no more predictions for professional athletes?
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,334
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 13, 2021 13:47:57 GMT -5
You're entitled to your opinion but I think the kid deserves a shot to develop before making proclamations he is going to struggle against major league pitching. So no more predictions for professional athletes? Like I said everyone is entitled to their opinion but to basically say this guy is going to suck I don't think that is adding anything to the forum.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 14:06:01 GMT -5
So no more predictions for professional athletes? Like I said everyone is entitled to their opinion but to basically say this guy is going to suck I don't think that is adding anything to the forum. Does saying a guy is going to be great add anything to the forum?
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2021 14:20:11 GMT -5
Knock it off. This is a thread regarding Marcelo Mayer. Please stay on topic.
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jul 13, 2021 14:29:17 GMT -5
Either way, the amount of irrational certainty on this forum at the moment is probably not helpful. I understand the argument that "well if you're not able to make poorly-informed, unreasonably-sure predictions, what even is a prospect forum for?" (all my predictions are poorly informed) but I think it's possible to do that while at least mentioning uncertainty.
Something like "I think Fabian will struggle against major league stuff, but if quieting a leg kick, re-establishing confidence, the plethora of other tools, and the history of wood bat success all play maybe he's better than that" is infinitely more valuable than "nah, he's just gonna struggle" because it moves the conversation. Same with "I like the tools a lot, but statistically it might not be completely clear that there was actually a change in results partway through the season and if the run/athleticism slips at all a lot of those plus tools might start to look fringe average so he's exceedingly risky" vs "nah he's gonna rake and play gold glove CF."
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2021 14:33:17 GMT -5
That’s fair, but this why it needs to be defined as there are other things that are harder about football than baseball. For example, I’d say there are more elite athletes in football than in baseball. And there is a reason football gets played once per week whereas baseball is 5-7 times per week. This isn’t to elevate one over the other. I just think it’s just disingenuous to say one sport is harder than the other. Unless we are talking soccer, soccer is harder than the other sports lol. Absolutely!! How about hockey? Their is no other sport where the guys hustle so hard they last about a minute and need to be replaced by someone else who plays for about a minute. But yeah also about soccer, how many miles do they run every game? In the old days baseball players didn't even really have to be in great shape, the sport didn't demand it. Now they can't really get away with that, which we see IMO with the pitching limits, can't be throwing meatballs up there to throw 300 innings or even 250. I bet Michael Jordan would have been a way better soccer player than baseball player. Hitting a baseball well is impossible without being born with the ability to do it.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2021 14:35:14 GMT -5
If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have. My major question is: if the Tigers took Mayer, instead of Jobe, who would the Red Sox have drafted? Someone ask Bloom/Toboni please. I gots to know. I would bet House underslot. They really seemed to like him.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 13, 2021 14:38:17 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 13, 2021 14:51:08 GMT -5
What were we all saying about Benintendi? I remember happiness at him being drafted but I don't remember the groundswell of "we might have just gotten the perhaps consensus possible best player in the draft" I don't remember Benintendi being rumored to go 1-1. Groome was rumored to go 1-1 and Mayer was strongly rumored to go 1-1. But as we all know there can be a greater degree of risk with a pitcher. This is my recollection. Since I’ve been paying attention (which is post-Nomar), Mayer seems like the best prospect drafted by a pretty good distance. There have been guys I was very happy to get (Benny, Groome, Casas), but this seems like the first guy who feels qualitatively different. I think the *dream* upside of Benny was a great fantasy, but the realistic upside to MM seems beyond anyone since probably Nomar (though, again, that is a bit longer ago than I followed attentively).
|
|
|
Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 13, 2021 15:00:09 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years? Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas. You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. Well...Just Imagine.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 13, 2021 15:01:06 GMT -5
This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light. I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. I really dislike it when others deign speak for me. Please do not.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 13, 2021 16:03:27 GMT -5
What were we all saying about Benintendi? I remember happiness at him being drafted but I don't remember the groundswell of "we might have just gotten the perhaps consensus possible best player in the draft" I don't remember Benintendi being rumored to go 1-1. Groome was rumored to go 1-1 and Mayer was strongly rumored to go 1-1. But as we all know there can be a greater degree of risk with a pitcher. Good point. Benintendi was never considered the very best player in that draft, but many were ecstatic with the pick and were convinced he’d be a perennial all star. I’m trying to find the comps on here at the time, but can’t seem to find it yet. As for Mayer, there were maybe as many as 8 guys who were rumored to be selected #1 overall. I’m not sure there was any consensus that he was the very best player out there?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jul 13, 2021 16:05:31 GMT -5
Absolutely!! How about hockey? Their is no other sport where the guys hustle so hard they last about a minute and need to be replaced by someone else who plays for about a minute. But yeah also about soccer, how many miles do they run every game? In the old days baseball players didn't even really have to be in great shape, the sport didn't demand it. Now they can't really get away with that, which we see IMO with the pitching limits, can't be throwing meatballs up there to throw 300 innings or even 250. I bet Michael Jordan would have been a way better soccer player than baseball player. Hitting a baseball well is impossible without being born with the ability to do it. Welcome back Jimed but I disagree. It isn't a matter of being born with it as much as it is growing up with it and developing that approach. Sure ok some of it is innate but it is a lot more about experiencing it and competing against it with a lot of success. Actually it is probably a product of both. Innate and experience if your going to be the best at it.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 16:08:15 GMT -5
I remember happiness at him being drafted but I don't remember the groundswell of "we might have just gotten the perhaps consensus possible best player in the draft" I don't remember Benintendi being rumored to go 1-1. Groome was rumored to go 1-1 and Mayer was strongly rumored to go 1-1. But as we all know there can be a greater degree of risk with a pitcher. Good point. Benintendi was never considered the very best player in that draft, but many were ecstatic with the pick and were convinced he’d be a perennial all star. I’m trying to find the comps on here at the time, but can’t seem to find it yet. As for Mayer, there were maybe as many as 8 guys who were rumored to be selected #1 overall. I’m not sure there was any consensus that he was the very best player out there? I had visions of Freddy Lynn when Benintendi was drafted. I thought a 1975ish type of season was a possibility for him. Ah well. We'll always have The Catch, some good offensive seasons from him, and I hope some good players acquired for him. I think more of the "Experts" had Mayer as the best player, but no, there was no slam dunk consensus about it, but if he wasn't the best, he was neck and neck with the others. I think when you factor in the defensive angle this is the most exciting draft prospect since Nomar.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jul 13, 2021 16:10:45 GMT -5
With the 4th pick in the 2021 MLB draft, the Boston Red Sox select Vinny Chase.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 13, 2021 16:13:23 GMT -5
Good point. Benintendi was never considered the very best player in that draft, but many were ecstatic with the pick and were convinced he’d be a perennial all star. I’m trying to find the comps on here at the time, but can’t seem to find it yet. As for Mayer, there were maybe as many as 8 guys who were rumored to be selected #1 overall. I’m not sure there was any consensus that he was the very best player out there? I had visions of Freddy Lynn when Benintendi was drafted. I thought a 1975ish type of season was a possibility for him. Ah well. We'll always have The Catch, some good offensive seasons from him, and I hope some good players acquired for him. I think more of the "Experts" had Mayer as the best player, but no, there was no slam dunk consensus about it, but if he wasn't the best, he was neck and neck with the others. I think when you factor in the defensive angle this is the most exciting draft prospect since Nomar. Hey, if the Sox just drafted the next Nomar, I would be ecstatic.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Jul 13, 2021 16:18:38 GMT -5
With the 4th pick in the 2021 MLB draft, the Boston Red Sox select Vinny Chase. Sunday called, it wants its joke back.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jul 13, 2021 16:21:51 GMT -5
With the 4th pick in the 2021 MLB draft, the Boston Red Sox select Vinny Chase. Sunday called, it wants its joke back. Worked all week, wasn’t able to stay up to date with the jokes.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 13, 2021 16:52:46 GMT -5
Random question, but how good of a draft prospect is Mayer? What I mean is, how would he rank in last years draft or others?
Wondering how good this pick is relative to other drafts.
|
|
|