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Red Sox Select Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 13, 2021 9:35:00 GMT -5
rjp313jr said, "Unless we are talking soccer, soccer is harder than the other sports lol." Certainly harder to watch.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2021 9:35:47 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.) They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too. It seems at least fair to say it didn’t hurt them, especially given Fabian falling to round 2. The only way it could have hurt (and I don’t think this is true) is if they were really set on Leiter. Otherwise, they couldn’t have done better. Hell, they might not have done better with the #1 pick. To better explain the one way I think it definitely isn't better, they'd have just had more pool money, period, to use later in day the third. Like dropping from 2 to 4 cuts $1.2M from their pool. Who knows how much of that then gets eaten up by Mayer and Fabian though in that scenario.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 13, 2021 9:44:03 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.) They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too. If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have. I like Mayer hands down. The thing that separates my opinion on Mayer and why my optimism is high are the reports that he makes everything look easy as he is a loose natural athlete. It was what worried me about Davis as he is from what I saw and from reports is a bit of a stiffer athlete. Think about Gronk vs other good TEs the same size, others might have been as big and looked the part. Then what you saw once he made the catch was just a different athlete than the other guys, fluid is what comes to mind not a stiff muscle head.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 13, 2021 9:47:42 GMT -5
Exactly. It isn’t that long ago that people were making all the same comps for Dansby Swanson. This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light. I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 13, 2021 9:49:57 GMT -5
I think the way I would compare the 2 is in skills. Great athletes can become good football players rather quickly sometimes, it is a game of speed, strength and technical skills to improve. Throwing a baseball the way pitchers do and hitting a baseball that is going 90+ MPH with movement isn't something somebody is going to pickup in a short amount of time. If you get a late start you may never be able to make contact, that was my problem. I got a late start, I could do a lot of the athletic stuff but I couldn't hit for the life of me. I compare baseball to be a bit like golf, it takes a lot of time and practice to be good and the levels of being average, good, great and elite are really really different. Even for the top players, just like golf, they go in spurts where they are in a zone and it is hard to maintain that consistency of play at every level. That doesn't really happen in football because athleticism is constant until age or injuries come in to play. That’s fair, but this why it needs to be defined as there are other things that are harder about football than baseball. For example, I’d say there are more elite athletes in football than in baseball. And there is a reason football gets played once per week whereas baseball is 5-7 times per week. This isn’t to elevate one over the other. I just think it’s just disingenuous to say one sport is harder than the other. Unless we are talking soccer, soccer is harder than the other sports lol. Absolutely!! How about hockey? Their is no other sport where the guys hustle so hard they last about a minute and need to be replaced by someone else who plays for about a minute. But yeah also about soccer, how many miles do they run every game? In the old days baseball players didn't even really have to be in great shape, the sport didn't demand it. Now they can't really get away with that, which we see IMO with the pitching limits, can't be throwing meatballs up there to throw 300 innings or even 250.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 9:51:23 GMT -5
This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light. I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux. However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts
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Post by ortiz on Jul 13, 2021 10:09:16 GMT -5
I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux. However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts Wasn't Groome a legit 1-1 for many who fell?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2021 10:12:04 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2021 10:13:22 GMT -5
So, on what date do we get the first Mayer box score?
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 13, 2021 10:18:25 GMT -5
I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux. However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts Wasn't Groome a legit 1-1 for many who fell? As per his soxprospects page: Career Notes: Was ranked by some outlets as the top talent in the 2016 draft class, but fell due to signability and makeup concerns.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 10:29:26 GMT -5
So, on what date do we get the first Mayer box score? Sounds like they want to send him to FT Meyers. Not because they don’t think that he can play elsewhere but because they believe strongly in the program they have down there and think it’s more beneficial to start there. Basically, don’t be disappointed if he reports to FT Meyers after signing.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 13, 2021 10:30:04 GMT -5
So, on what date do we get the first Mayer box score? Sounds like they want to send him to FT Meyers. Not because they don’t think that he can play elsewhere but because they believe strongly in the program they have down there and think it’s more beneficial to start there. Basically, don’t be disappointed if he reports to FT Meyers after signing. I believe you mean Ft Mayer.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 10:31:09 GMT -5
rjp313jr said, "Unless we are talking soccer, soccer is harder than the other sports lol." Certainly harder to watch. You gotta admit a baseball fan complaining about soccer being hard to watch is pretty ironic.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 10:57:53 GMT -5
I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux. However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts Wasn't Groome a legit 1-1 for many who fell? True, but doesn't that fall under TINSTAAPP or whatever the acronym is? Sure enough Groome got injured. Less concern with a non-pitcher.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2021 10:58:31 GMT -5
I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux. However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts I don't think he was quite a consensus 1-1; it seemed that most analysts felt there was a top tier of 6 or so with very little separation between them. (The Rangers, for one, obviously didn't think he was the top player.) Also it was regarded as a relatively weak draft at the top so it's not like you could compare Mayer to, say, how Harper was viewed at the time of the draft.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2021 11:04:56 GMT -5
There's one group of slam dunk 1-1s that don't come around every year. Harper, Strasburg, ARod.
Then there's a group of guys that could reasonably go 1-1 in most years. All the top picks that don't fit into the first category go here, along with the strongest 2-5 picks.
Mayer is in the second category. That group has a really exciting track record, but the first group's track record is on quite another level.
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Post by borisman on Jul 13, 2021 11:11:23 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.) They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too. If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have. My major question is: if the Tigers took Mayer, instead of Jobe, who would the Red Sox have drafted? Someone ask Bloom/Toboni please. I gots to know.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 11:12:23 GMT -5
I get your pumping the brakes on this and no, Mayer is probably not Ken Griffey Jr redux.
However none of those guys you listed were consensus 1-1 draft picks. Mayer was expected to go first and regarded by consensus as the best player in the draft so it is fair to have expectations, not that 1-1 guys never busted, but the hit rate for those guys isn't too bad as there are some true gems. Now, Mayer wound up 1-4 but he easily and was seen as a legit 1-1. I'm expecting the best SS since Xander Bogaerts I don't think he was quite a consensus 1-1; it seemed that most analysts felt there was a top tier of 6 or so with very little separation between them. (The Rangers, for one, obviously didn't think he was the top player.) Also it was regarded as a relatively weak draft at the top so it's not like you could compare Mayer to, say, how Harper was viewed at the time of the draft. Yes, that is why I put my disclaimer. I never said Mayer is generational, as my Griffey Jr. comment makes clear. I think the majority of what we read felt that Mayer was the best guy to draft. One well respected publication had Lawlar ahead of Mayer. Yes, the Rangers felt that Leiter was their best option. And the Tigers passed up on Mayer for Jobe so they felt he was their best option. I would say the Pirates felt that signing Davis would allow them to have a better pick in the 2nd round as they would save money over drafting Mayer. Either way, I'm damn excited with what he can be. I feel they have a potential all-star, one with a great probability of reaching that than your typical Michael Chavis first round draft pick, which is what I was pushing back against. I think we can agree not all first round picks are equal, nor are the expectations, especially when a draftee is toward the end of the first round. And all those guys mentioned initially, with the exception of Groome, none of them were regarded as potentially the best player in the draft. Mayer was.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 11:16:54 GMT -5
If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have. My major question is: if the Tigers took Mayer, instead of Jobe, who would the Red Sox have drafted? Someone ask Bloom/Toboni please. I gots to know. I'm thinking either Lawlar, Rocker, or Cowser as an under slot.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 13, 2021 11:23:16 GMT -5
If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have. My major question is: if the Tigers took Mayer, instead of Jobe, who would the Red Sox have drafted? Someone ask Bloom/Toboni please. I gots to know. A lot of late rumors that they were going to take Matt McLain if Davis/Leiter/Mayer were off the board. Just rumors but seemed to have some heat behind them.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 13, 2021 11:25:09 GMT -5
Should note that the Rangers and Tigers didn't necessarily think their guys was a better prospect than Mayer. They clearly at least thought it was at least close, but on the Tigers front there is a lot of buzz that they just didn't expect Mayer to be there and did not want to break the deal they made with Jobe. Possible the Rangers felt similarly (though I haven't heard that and expect Leiter may have been their number one).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2021 11:27:50 GMT -5
All shortstops taken in the top 5 picks this century, with their career bWAR total and/or fangraphs future value rating (+ means they're still adding to it; * means they were high schoolers):
2020/5: Austin Martin, 55 FV 2019/2: Bobby Witt*, 60 FV 2018/4: Nick Madrigal, 55 FV 2017/1: Royce Lewis*, 55 FV 2015/1: Dansby Swanson, 7.7+ WAR 2015/2: Alex Bregman, 25.3+ 2015/3: Brendan Rodgers*, -0.4+ (55 FV) 2014/5: Nick Gordon*, 0.2+ (35+ FV) 2012/1: Carlos Correa*, 30.8+ 2010/3: Manny Machado*, 43.4+ 2010/4: Christian Colon, 1.1 2008/1: Tim Beckham*, 3.8 2007/2: Mike Moustakas*, 15.2+ 2005/1: Justin Upton*, 33.9+ 2004/1: Matt Bush*, 2.5 2002/2: BJ Upton*, 15.8 2000/3: Luis Montanez*, -1.3
Very boom or bust! I count 4 perennial all-star talents, 5 flops, and only 3 kind of in the middle (BJ Upton, Moustakas, and Swanson). The four most recent + Rodgers are TBD).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2021 11:29:34 GMT -5
I think it's probably true to say that he was the consensus top prospect in the draft (I admittedly don't have every ranking in front of me but he was #1 on MLB's and PG's list and #2 on BA's).
I think it's also true to say that it wasn't by very much, so don't misread "consensus top prospect" as "clearly the best prospect".
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2021 11:31:46 GMT -5
All shortstops taken in the top 5 picks this century, with their career bWAR total and/or fangraphs future value rating (+ means they're still adding to it; * means they were high schoolers): 2020/5: Austin Martin, 55 FV 2019/2: Bobby Witt*, 60 FV 2018/4: Nick Madrigal, 55 FV 2017/1: Royce Lewis*, 55 FV 2015/1: Dansby Swanson, 7.7+ WAR 2015/2: Alex Bregman, 25.3+ 2015/3: Brendan Rodgers*, -0.4+ (55 FV) 2014/5: Nick Gordon*, 0.2+ (35+ FV) 2012/1: Carlos Correa*, 30.8+ 2010/3: Manny Machado*, 43.4+ 2010/4: Christian Colon, 1.1 2008/1: Tim Beckham*, 3.8 2007/2: Mike Moustakas*, 15.2+ 2005/1: Justin Upton*, 33.9+ 2004/1: Matt Bush*, 2.5 2002/2: BJ Upton*, 15.8 2000/3: Luis Montanez*, -1.3 Very boom or bust! I count 4 perennial all-star talents, 5 flops, and only 3 kind of in the middle (BJ Upton, Moustakas, and Swanson). The four most recent + Rodgers are TBD).
This goes back to the work Collazo did looking at the HS SS's, college P's, and college C's taken top 5 in the draft. HS SS's tend to offer the most upside and the most risk, unsurprisingly. All tend to do well because, in general, teams mostly draft well in the top 5.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2021 11:32:03 GMT -5
Exactly. It isn’t that long ago that people were making all the same comps for Dansby Swanson. This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light. I want to point out (again) that every study of the draft, from quick and very informative ones like this to the comprehensive ones that try to put a value on each pick, assume that there is no correlation between draft position and drafting ability by the team with that pick.
And of course we know that's not true. If your organization drafts badly, in the long run, you'll end up with better picks. Which you will tend to screw up at a higher rate than average.
It takes a while for a bad-drafting GM to be fired (unless he's also making bad trades). Bad organizations probably have a tendency to hire a series of bad GM's. But there will be enough cases where a good-drafting GM inherited a bad team and made them good by drafting well to determine the size of this confounding effect.
Note that you have to adjust this with recursion. You start with a pick quality metric that is WAR from the pick adjusted for the historical quality of that pick. You use that to measure each GM's pick quality. But then you adjust each slot based on the measured skill of the drafting GM's, and that gives you a new set of slot values and hence a new measure of GM skill. You continue until the data stabilizes.
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