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Red Sox Select Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2021 20:21:44 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years? Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas. You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. But where would Cora put Marwin in your hypothetical scenario?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 20:44:43 GMT -5
Dream killed.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 12, 2021 20:47:13 GMT -5
This scout almost spill the beans.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2021 22:31:24 GMT -5
Though Mayer has never set foot in Fenway Park or the city of Boston, he knows that will change in the near future.
“I’m looking forward to it,” said Mayer. “I love seafood. I love clam chowder. My trainer has the biggest Boston accent I've ever heard in my life, so he was screaming and yelling when the Red Sox took me.”
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Post by philarhody on Jul 12, 2021 22:52:54 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years? Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas. You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. That would be very fast. Mookie was drafted in 2011 and debuted in Boston in 2014, so if Mayer followed that path he'd reach Boston in 2024 and the Sox will have had to have retained X and extended Devers for that to work. I think we’ll see Mayer in Boston in 2023. Machado had almost 200 ABs in the Bigs during his age 19 season. I’m expecting Mayer to fly through the system. He’s the best shortstop prospect since Arod. He has a ceiling of Chipper Jones from the left side of the plate and Ripken Jr. in the field. That’s a hall of famer. His coach said he has more power than Adrian Gonzalez at the same age and he’s a plus defensive shortstop. This is ridiculous that the Sox got their next superstar.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2021 22:59:31 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years? Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas. You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. That would be very fast. Mookie was drafted in 2011 and debuted in Boston in 2014, so if Mayer followed that path he'd reach Boston in 2024 and the Sox will have had to have retained X and extended Devers for that to work. Yeah I was going to say, not a good comp because neither of those guys got there that quickly. Betts was drafted in 2011 and had a completely nondescript start in pro ball in 2011 and 2012. He didn't even get to full-season until 2013. He just figured it out that May and got the rocket strapped to his back... but even then, he wasn't in the majors for good until 2015. Bogaerts, as an IFA, isn't a great comparison because he signed at 16. As a draft equivalent, he basically went right to Greenville at age 18, did Salem/Portland at 19, and came up at the VERY end of his age 20 season, but recall his growing pains in 2014. There's no rush. Give Mayer until at least 2024 if not 2025.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 12, 2021 23:03:22 GMT -5
That would be very fast. Mookie was drafted in 2011 and debuted in Boston in 2014, so if Mayer followed that path he'd reach Boston in 2024 and the Sox will have had to have retained X and extended Devers for that to work. I think we’ll see Mayer in Boston in 2023. Machado had almost 200 ABs in the Bigs during his age 19 season. I’m expecting Mayer to fly through the system. He’s the best shortstop prospect since Arod. He has a ceiling of Chipper Jones from the left side of the plate and Ripken Jr. in the field. That’s a hall of famer. His coach said he has more power than Adrian Gonzalez at the same age and he’s a plus defensive shortstop. This is ridiculous that the Sox got their next superstar. Is this sarcasm? Because that's five ridiculous comps in one paragraph. I'm pumped too, but you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you're expecting Mayer to be a Machado/Ripken/ARod hybrid.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 12, 2021 23:48:36 GMT -5
As I said before, the prognosticating should be fun and it has already started. Just how quickly MM makes it thru the minors will be up to him and his performance, obviously. The great ones fly right thru and at this point why wouldn't some here hope for that kind of outcome. Sure it is aggressive but who is to say before he even gets started that he won't be one of the few who is great from the very beginning. It's more fun and I doubt it is going to be a massive disappointment if he doesn't this is just baseball it's not life or death. Guys make it to the show at 20-21 every year, he is considered the best player in the draft so why not him. I'll go out on a limb and say 21, that is 2024 with maybe a cup of coffee in 2023 if all goes right.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2021 23:49:50 GMT -5
Of course, a lot of things have to happen and odds are at least one of them won’t. Hence, You may say that I’m a dreamer…. ...But I'm not the only one.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 12, 2021 23:54:57 GMT -5
It would be good to pump the brakes a little. Mayer looks like an outstanding talent, with enormous potential. When I watched the video of him hitting, my first thought was effortless - and that's exactly what one of the analysts who was later quoted on the site had said. But potential is just possibility. He looks to have the makeup to make it all happen, but we should give him some time.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 13, 2021 0:22:29 GMT -5
It would be good to pump the brakes a little. Mayer looks like an outstanding talent, with enormous potential. When I watched the video of him hitting, my first thought was effortless - and that's exactly what one of the analysts who was later quoted on the site had said. But potential is just possibility. He looks to have the makeup to make it all happen, but we should give him some time. Exactly. It isn’t that long ago that people were making all the same comps for Dansby Swanson.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 13, 2021 5:42:17 GMT -5
I think we’ll see Mayer in Boston in 2023. Machado had almost 200 ABs in the Bigs during his age 19 season. I’m expecting Mayer to fly through the system. He’s the best shortstop prospect since Arod. He has a ceiling of Chipper Jones from the left side of the plate and Ripken Jr. in the field. That’s a hall of famer. His coach said he has more power than Adrian Gonzalez at the same age and he’s a plus defensive shortstop. This is ridiculous that the Sox got their next superstar. Is this sarcasm? Because that's five ridiculous comps in one paragraph. I'm pumped too, but you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you're expecting Mayer to be a Machado/Ripken/ARod hybrid. I don’t think he’ll be anything like Arod or Machado as a player.
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Post by costpet on Jul 13, 2021 5:57:56 GMT -5
I've heard the debate which is harder, baseball or football. There's no doubt that baseball is far harder. A first round pick in football is supposed to start right away. A first round pick in baseball usually takes 3-4 years to make it to the show. So, that settles that.
For some reason, I really trust Bloom. Maybe it's his TB roots.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 6:33:07 GMT -5
I've heard the debate which is harder, baseball or football. There's no doubt that baseball is far harder. A first round pick in football is supposed to start right away. A first round pick in baseball usually takes 3-4 years to make it to the show. So, that settles that. For some reason, I really trust Bloom. Maybe it's his TB roots. Can you define harder? Football is a lot harder than baseball in a lot of ways, but less so in others. Regarding, getting drafted in football versus baseball then playing right away: A few contributing factors: - no one gets drafted out of high school in football. - no minor league systems so college competition is a lot stronger in football than baseball. - draft is 7 rounds - football has an incredibly high turnover and I’d guess shorter careers - especially for starting caliber players.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 8:12:13 GMT -5
I think we’ll see Mayer in Boston in 2023. Machado had almost 200 ABs in the Bigs during his age 19 season. I’m expecting Mayer to fly through the system. He’s the best shortstop prospect since Arod. He has a ceiling of Chipper Jones from the left side of the plate and Ripken Jr. in the field. That’s a hall of famer. His coach said he has more power than Adrian Gonzalez at the same age and he’s a plus defensive shortstop. This is ridiculous that the Sox got their next superstar. Is this sarcasm? Because that's five ridiculous comps in one paragraph. I'm pumped too, but you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you're expecting Mayer to be a Machado/Ripken/ARod hybrid. I think it was O'Dowd who had him as Cano at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. I don't think that's outrageous for a guy who is the consensus best talent in a given year's draft. It's also a pretty good player.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 13, 2021 8:30:25 GMT -5
Is this sarcasm? Because that's five ridiculous comps in one paragraph. I'm pumped too, but you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you're expecting Mayer to be a Machado/Ripken/ARod hybrid. I think it was O'Dowd who had him as Cano at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. I don't think that's outrageous for a guy who is the consensus best talent in a given year's draft. It's also a pretty good player. I heard Corey Seager at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. Considering the draft pedigree, I hope we're talking about 2020 limited sample size or 2016 Corey Seager as the baseline. If he's 2021 Seager it's still a win for the organization, though slightly disappointing. Always hope for elite star talent that high on the board.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 13, 2021 8:30:58 GMT -5
Re: consensus top player. Here were the rankings a mere year ago.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 13, 2021 8:46:56 GMT -5
I think it was O'Dowd who had him as Cano at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. I don't think that's outrageous for a guy who is the consensus best talent in a given year's draft. It's also a pretty good player. I heard Corey Seager at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. Considering the draft pedigree, I hope we're talking about 2020 limited sample size or 2016 Corey Seager as the baseline. If he's 2021 Seager it's still a win for the organization, though slightly disappointing. Always hope for elite star talent that high on the board. Seager has a career 130 wRC+ and Crawford peaked as a 3.5 dWAR SS. That’s a pretty insane player
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2021 8:59:12 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.)
They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too.
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Post by manfred on Jul 13, 2021 9:06:24 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.) They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too. It seems at least fair to say it didn’t hurt them, especially given Fabian falling to round 2. The only way it could have hurt (and I don’t think this is true) is if they were really set on Leiter. Otherwise, they couldn’t have done better. Hell, they might not have done better with the #1 pick.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 13, 2021 9:07:46 GMT -5
I heard Corey Seager at the plate and Brandon Crawford in the field. Considering the draft pedigree, I hope we're talking about 2020 limited sample size or 2016 Corey Seager as the baseline. If he's 2021 Seager it's still a win for the organization, though slightly disappointing. Always hope for elite star talent that high on the board. Seager has a career 130 wRC+ and Crawford peaked as a 3.5 dWAR SS. That’s a pretty insane player Oh for sure. His career numbers are nice, but when looking at the numbers it seems like he did most of his damage in select years. I'll take his career averages with Crawford's defense any day.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 13, 2021 9:08:05 GMT -5
I've heard the debate which is harder, baseball or football. There's no doubt that baseball is far harder. A first round pick in football is supposed to start right away. A first round pick in baseball usually takes 3-4 years to make it to the show. So, that settles that. For some reason, I really trust Bloom. Maybe it's his TB roots. Can you define harder? Football is a lot harder than baseball in a lot of ways, but less so in others. Regarding, getting drafted in football versus baseball then playing right away: A few contributing factors: - no one gets drafted out of high school in football. - no minor league systems so college competition is a lot stronger in football than baseball. - draft is 7 rounds - football has an incredibly high turnover and I’d guess shorter careers - especially for starting caliber players. I think the way I would compare the 2 is in skills. Great athletes can become good football players rather quickly sometimes, it is a game of speed, strength and technical skills to improve. Throwing a baseball the way pitchers do and hitting a baseball that is going 90+ MPH with movement isn't something somebody is going to pickup in a short amount of time. If you get a late start you may never be able to make contact, that was my problem. I got a late start, I could do a lot of the athletic stuff but I couldn't hit for the life of me. I compare baseball to be a bit like golf, it takes a lot of time and practice to be good and the levels of being average, good, great and elite are really really different. Even for the top players, just like golf, they go in spurts where they are in a zone and it is hard to maintain that consistency of play at every level. That doesn't really happen in football because athleticism is constant until age or injuries come in to play. This is also why I don't get down on players all that much. I realize how hard it is to maintain the level of play it requires to be one of the best in the world and it is such a fine line in baseball and golf.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 13, 2021 9:08:46 GMT -5
So here's a thought. For all of the lamenting of the Red Sox winning 5 of their last 7 to finish with the 4th pick instead of, say, the 2nd, if Mayer signs for something looking like slot, whereas he might've signed for more if they'd had an earlier pick and taken him there anyway, is it possible that they wound up better off picking 4th? (Answer is probably still no because it is a factor in every round, as well as their bonus cap, but still... something to think about once we know his bonus.) They also got the best R5 guy at 4 too. If the Red Sox had both Mayer and Leiter available to them, do they still take Mayer? That's the only belly aching I have.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 13, 2021 9:10:27 GMT -5
It would be good to pump the brakes a little. Mayer looks like an outstanding talent, with enormous potential. When I watched the video of him hitting, my first thought was effortless - and that's exactly what one of the analysts who was later quoted on the site had said. But potential is just possibility. He looks to have the makeup to make it all happen, but we should give him some time. Exactly. It isn’t that long ago that people were making all the same comps for Dansby Swanson. This one worried me since I started looking at recent Top 5 picks. "pretty good major leaguer" is still likely outcome and is massively disappointing for us prospect hounds. Just did a quick B-R pull. The 25th percentile of 2007-2015 top-5 picks is Matt Weiters/Eric Hosmer/Bauer. 75th percentile is Danny Hultzen/Clint Frazier/Daniel Mosko. 50th is Dylan Bundy/Kyle Schwarber/Dustin Ackley/Swanson. No controlling for years from draft year or years from debut, but most of the players are pretty level-set. Brendan Rodgers is one who stands out as one I remember as can't-miss who missed. And yet, Bergman/Correa/Machado stand there as our beacons of light.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 9:19:24 GMT -5
Can you define harder? Football is a lot harder than baseball in a lot of ways, but less so in others. Regarding, getting drafted in football versus baseball then playing right away: A few contributing factors: - no one gets drafted out of high school in football. - no minor league systems so college competition is a lot stronger in football than baseball. - draft is 7 rounds - football has an incredibly high turnover and I’d guess shorter careers - especially for starting caliber players. I think the way I would compare the 2 is in skills. Great athletes can become good football players rather quickly sometimes, it is a game of speed, strength and technical skills to improve. Throwing a baseball the way pitchers do and hitting a baseball that is going 90+ MPH with movement isn't something somebody is going to pickup in a short amount of time. If you get a late start you may never be able to make contact, that was my problem. I got a late start, I could do a lot of the athletic stuff but I couldn't hit for the life of me. I compare baseball to be a bit like golf, it takes a lot of time and practice to be good and the levels of being average, good, great and elite are really really different. Even for the top players, just like golf, they go in spurts where they are in a zone and it is hard to maintain that consistency of play at every level. That doesn't really happen in football because athleticism is constant until age or injuries come in to play. That’s fair, but this why it needs to be defined as there are other things that are harder about football than baseball. For example, I’d say there are more elite athletes in football than in baseball. And there is a reason football gets played once per week whereas baseball is 5-7 times per week. This isn’t to elevate one over the other. I just think it’s just disingenuous to say one sport is harder than the other. Unless we are talking soccer, soccer is harder than the other sports lol.
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