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Red Sox Select Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2021 12:06:02 GMT -5
I was covering proximity to majors in the being overthought part of it. I use a simple question when rankings guys. Who would you rather have in the system? Obviously, all the analysis goes into it, like the question you mentioned, but if Mayer’s skill set is what’s being discussed then it’s an easy answer. You want the guy with legitimate franchise player upside at short stop vs the power gutting first baseman in AA who projects as an average regular who’s not hitting for power. Comparing Mayer's upside to Casas' average projection is certainly one way to make Mayer look better! But Casas' upside is all-star slugger, which is not too shabby. And Casas may be slumping right now, but I hope you don't get too down on Mayer when he goes through the inevitable growing pains... When proximity to the majors is your reason to rank one guy ahead of the other then his current production and projection matter quite a bit, no? If Casas is considered a better prospect then Mayer is being overhyped in my opinion. That’s not me being down on Casas, it’d be me being a bit disappointed in how good the number 1 prospect is this year.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2021 12:17:57 GMT -5
This is so true. What’s $11m in baseball terms anyway? The Red Sox are flushing more than that down the toilet on Dustin Pedroia(and David Price for that matter) this year. Baseball should want more talent in the top of the funnel. I don’t mind it. It makes the draft more strategic, which creates more interest, I think. But also: $11 million means something different in Boston and in Kansas City. If there weren’t set numbers, the Red Sox (or someone) could say to Leiter, hey, we’ll give you $15 million if you hold out to our second round pick. It might not always work, but it would go a long way to undermining a team like Pittsburgh at #1. Even the Royals are worth more than $1B, though. $11m is NOTHING on that scale. And I guess you have to have limits(to not have a situation like you outlined above), but we saw this scenario with Kyler Murray a few years ago. Elite athletes aren’t choosing baseball. Football and basketball are much “sexier” options. MLB really needs to fix that, but doesn’t have any apparent interest in doing so.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2021 12:19:32 GMT -5
I don’t mind it. It makes the draft more strategic, which creates more interest, I think. But also: $11 million means something different in Boston and in Kansas City. If there weren’t set numbers, the Red Sox (or someone) could say to Leiter, hey, we’ll give you $15 million if you hold out to our second round pick. It might not always work, but it would go a long way to undermining a team like Pittsburgh at #1. Even the Royals are worth more than $1B, though. $11m is NOTHING on that scale. And I guess you have to have limits(to not have a situation like you outlined above), but we saw this scenario with Kyler Murray a few years ago. Elite athletes aren’t choosing baseball. Football and basketball are much “sexier” options. MLB really needs to fix that, but doesn’t have any apparent interest in doing so. The problem is that the baseball draft is less reliable… so a lot of this money gets flushed.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 12, 2021 15:55:28 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 16:01:13 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2021 16:07:25 GMT -5
Fantastic avatar opportunity here for anyone who wants it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2021 16:09:32 GMT -5
I was covering proximity to majors in the being overthought part of it. I use a simple question when rankings guys. Who would you rather have in the system? Obviously, all the analysis goes into it, like the question you mentioned, but if Mayer’s skill set is what’s being discussed then it’s an easy answer. You want the guy with legitimate franchise player upside at short stop vs the power gutting first baseman in AA who projects as an average regular who’s not hitting for power. Comparing Mayer's upside to Casas' average projection is certainly one way to make Mayer look better! But Casas' upside is all-star slugger, which is not too shabby. And Casas may be slumping right now, but I hope you don't get too down on Mayer when he goes through the inevitable growing pains... This. You could do the opposite and say "18yo high school kid who didn't even go first overall compared to a 21yo in Double-A who could turn into Freddie Freeman." Fangraphs has a 55 on Casas and 50s on Downs and Duran. They've got a 50 on Mayer. It's close. If you wanted to argue it one way I wouldn't say you're incorrect. If you wanted to say it's not close in either direction, I would say you were.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2021 16:20:38 GMT -5
Comparing Mayer's upside to Casas' average projection is certainly one way to make Mayer look better! But Casas' upside is all-star slugger, which is not too shabby. And Casas may be slumping right now, but I hope you don't get too down on Mayer when he goes through the inevitable growing pains... This. You could do the opposite and say "18yo high school kid who didn't even go first overall compared to a 21yo in Double-A who could turn into Freddie Freeman." Fangraphs has a 55 on Casas and 50s on Downs and Duran. They've got a 50 on Mayer. It's close. If you wanted to argue it one way I wouldn't say you're incorrect. If you wanted to say it's not close in either direction, I would say you were. Somewhat of a separate point, but I have to admit I had forgotten Casas is a full 3 years younger than average for AA. He makes it easy to forget sometimes.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 12, 2021 17:00:30 GMT -5
I say let Mayer play at least 50 games before he cracks the top 3. Come on already. And if we had a better farm I wouldn't say that.
And I'm with Voice of Reason. The bottom line he is a slot 4 pick. If he was willing to negotiate maybe he would be a slot 1 but he wasn't. NWIH that kid turns $6.8 mil. It would be an unwise decision. We all want the best for the kid but he is NOT ENTITLED to 1 slot money when he's the 4 slot pick. I do think we should be fair to him though and give him slightly over slot. And by the way, the top teams may well have passed over him for a reason. This could be a Jay Groome situation for all we know. There is no indication it is but we know next to nothing about that kid.
I've got an idea for a new avatar. His relationship with his dad is what this is all about. Nothing happens usually without the village supporting it. I am extremely happy for them both.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 17:03:07 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 17:19:23 GMT -5
Xander to Marcelo "Hit Bombs" 😂
We tend to forget but Xander hit 16 bombs at age 18 in 2/3 of Low A Ball season.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2021 17:31:37 GMT -5
"Where you going to, Fort Myers?"
"Yeah, I hope so."
Not a scoop, exactly, but... there you go.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2021 17:44:47 GMT -5
Hopefully Mayer rakes and we can see them share the field in the next couple years. Or hopefully not, and they both rake, and Yorke moves fast enough that it takes until they're both in the Majors.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,307
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 17:53:25 GMT -5
My bold prediction is that they'll share the same infield for the first time in Portland.
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Post by patford on Jul 12, 2021 18:15:35 GMT -5
Xander to Marcelo "Hit Bombs" 😂 We tend to forget but Xander hit 16 bombs at age 18 in 2/3 of Low A Ball season. In what world is he 6'3" ? I'm excited about the pick but never realized Xander was 6'9"
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2021 18:20:31 GMT -5
Xander to Marcelo "Hit Bombs" 😂 We tend to forget but Xander hit 16 bombs at age 18 in 2/3 of Low A Ball season. In what world is he 6'3" ? I'm excited about the pick but never realized Xander was 6'9" Are you being sarcastic? He’s sitting down, no?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 12, 2021 18:25:21 GMT -5
Look up a few pics. You can clearly see he's sitting down.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 12, 2021 19:10:41 GMT -5
My bold prediction is that they'll share the same infield for the first time in Portland. Love it, I will be going to some of those games!!
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 12, 2021 19:18:58 GMT -5
Welp. He doesn't lack for confidence.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 12, 2021 19:29:15 GMT -5
Even the Royals are worth more than $1B, though. $11m is NOTHING on that scale. And I guess you have to have limits(to not have a situation like you outlined above), but we saw this scenario with Kyler Murray a few years ago. Elite athletes aren’t choosing baseball. Football and basketball are much “sexier” options. MLB really needs to fix that, but doesn’t have any apparent interest in doing so. The problem is that the baseball draft is less reliable… so a lot of this money gets flushed. Yeah I can't say I agree with the bonus money being a real problem but I am no expert, I guess that would take a deep dive into trends and stats. In no other sport do you have such a long way to go to actually make it or is the success rate so low. Not to mention 16 year olds from the Dominican Rep getting millions of dollars. The smartest thing the NFL ever did was create a rookie scale for drafted players. Just think about how many millions are paid to guys who never make the show. The total bonus money based on slot just this year is 265 million and I am going guess that a lot more then half of that is going to players who don't make it right. www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slots
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Post by patford on Jul 12, 2021 19:30:16 GMT -5
Look up a few pics. You can clearly see he's sitting down. I only saw the video. I'm surprised he didn't stand up when they embraced.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 19:31:55 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years?
Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas.
You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2021 19:41:14 GMT -5
What if Mayer is an absolute stud in the mold of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (comparison made for purposes of illustrating a prospect who flys through the minors) and gets to Boston in two years? Your infield becomes Devers/Mayer/Bogaerts/Casas. You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. That would be very fast. Mookie was drafted in 2011 and debuted in Boston in 2014, so if Mayer followed that path he'd reach Boston in 2024 and the Sox will have had to have retained X and extended Devers for that to work.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 19:49:32 GMT -5
Of course, a lot of things have to happen and odds are at least one of them won’t. Hence, You may say that I’m a dreamer….
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2021 20:20:46 GMT -5
The problem is that the baseball draft is less reliable… so a lot of this money gets flushed. Yeah I can't say I agree with the bonus money being a real problem but I am no expert, I guess that would take a deep dive into trends and stats. In no other sport do you have such a long way to go to actually make it or is the success rate so low. Not to mention 16 year olds from the Dominican Rep getting millions of dollars. The smartest thing the NFL ever did was create a rookie scale for drafted players. Just think about how many millions are paid to guys who never make the show. The total bonus money based on slot just this year is 265 million and I am going guess that a lot more then half of that is going to players who don't make it right. www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slotsIt’s just like investing. You can have a lot of misses as long as you get in on the ground floor with an Amazon or a Google. $265m is the total pool? Manny Machado has a $300m contract by himself. He was drafted once upon a time....
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