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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 12, 2021 23:41:54 GMT -5
... I'm not really sure I follow your point. That's just a function of there not being many humans that bat right and throw left, right? Or are you trying to say that given a player who bats right throws left and a player who bats left and throws left, you think the latter has a better chance of succeeding? This is just a list of all the MLB players who had that profile. As I stated above, it would be great to have him fit into that list. I'm not sure why it's been rare for position players in MLB, but it has. There were 193 players on the full list, many of them pitchers. There have been minor league position players with the profile but few have reached the majors. I think the important question is why the asymmetry? Why are there so many bat left/throw right position players, many of them stars, and so few bat right/throw left guys?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2021 23:47:25 GMT -5
I thought it was an interesting Day 2. I was wondering if the Sox would be able to draft Del Castillo, Fabian, or Hill. I would have preferred the bat of Del Castillo and hope they can make a catcher out of him. Instead they gamble with Fabian and hope to make a catcher out of their 5th round pick Nathan Hickey, which doesn't sound like they'll be able to do.
Fabian did cut his K%, maybe once the rust wore off, but it was still kind of high and he still only hit .275, albeit with a good OBP and SA. The Red Sox are kind of swinging for the fences here because if he can cut his K rate even more, there could be a really good everyday player there, one with power who can play CF, and the Sox might as well go after upside at pick 40. I mean, once you get Marcelo Mayer, you really have nothing to lose because you've already had a spectacular draft.
Their #3 pick, Tyler McDonough, strikes me as a prototypical TB type player that the Sox will develop, a guy who can be fairly productive while playing all over the place.
The pick, beyond Fabian, today that I was most intrigued by is the #4 pick, that young Elmer pitcher. He's got some serious upside it sounds like.
The Sox didn't get much impact pitching in the draft, but perhaps Elmer is the guy. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Sox just might have a guy debuting in their minor league system in 2022, a pitcher by the name of Noah Song, or at least I hope so, so in a way the Sox will be adding a highly rated pitcher, one that's probably closer to reaching his upside, but anyways add Elmer to Perales, De La Rosa, and some other kids that I'm forgetting who are about 18 years old and just starting out, but with promise.
Hope the Sox can find another upside pitcher tomorrow with their 11th pick.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 0:23:50 GMT -5
I'll try not to rain too hard on this parade. Those of you who've been on the site for a while have heard this from me before. I'd love to see Fabian buck history, and he can bring a bit to a team even if he's not a great hitter as others have pointed out. But his profile is one that has had limited success in MLB history. This is as table sorted by WAR for players who bat right and throw left. The fact that there are two pitchers in this list tells you a bit about how rare that success has been:
Player | oWAR | From | To | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
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Rickey Henderson | 105.2 | 1979 | 2003 | 3081 | 13346 | 10961 | 2295 | 3055 | 510 | 66 | 297 | 1115 | .279 | .401 | .419 | .820 | Jimmy Ryan | 43.3 | 1885 | 1903 | 1896 | 8577 | 7686 | 1544 | 2348 | 419 | 152 | 112 | 1004 | .305 | .373 | .443 | .816 | Hal Chase | 26.9 | 1905 | 1919 | 1699 | 7048 | 6559 | 852 | 1892 | 272 | 105 | 37 | 804 | .288 | .317 | .379 | .696 | Cleon Jones | 18.5 | 1963 | 1976 | 1213 | 4730 | 4263 | 565 | 1196 | 183 | 33 | 93 | 524 | .281 | .339 | .404 | .744 | Rube Bressler | 18.4 | 1914 | 1932 | 1305 | 4499 | 3881 | 544 | 1170 | 164 | 87 | 32 | 586 | .301 | .378 | .413 | .791 | Ryan Ludwick | 11.5 | 2002 | 2014 | 1065 | 3986 | 3549 | 454 | 923 | 201 | 8 | 154 | 587 | .260 | .330 | .451 | .781 | Cody Ross | 10.5 | 2003 | 2015 | 1073 | 3806 | 3453 | 449 | 904 | 211 | 13 | 132 | 508 | .262 | .322 | .445 | .768 | Johnny Cooney | 7.8 | 1921 | 1944 | 1172 | 3675 | 3372 | 408 | 965 | 130 | 26 | 2 | 219 | .286 | .329 | .342 | .671 | Mike Hampton | 7.6 | 1993 | 2010 | 423 | 845 | 725 | 97 | 178 | 22 | 5 | 16 | 79 | .246 | .294 | .356 | .650 | Mark Carreon | 7.4 | 1987 | 1996 | 738 | 2191 | 2012 | 246 | 557 | 108 | 5 | 69 | 289 | .277 | .327 | .438 | .766 | Madison Bumgarner | 4.8 | 2009 | 2021 | 302 | 706 | 615 | 52 | 108 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 64 | .176 | .231 | .299 | .530 |
Given those totals, there's plenty of room to squeeze in another bat. Hopefully, Fabian will fit in there from the middle up.
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool UsedGenerated 7/12/2021. If this is a substantial portion of the list, I would say, 'mamas, teach all your babies to bat right and throw lefty..." If BR/TL means my floor is 2000 big league ABs and a .766 OPS, I'll take it seven days a week and twice on Sundays!
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 0:27:02 GMT -5
Definitely a tough assignment to say Matt Litwicki three or four times in 15 seconds. Here's hoping Joe Castig (or Will Flemming, after Joe has ridden off into the sunset) gets an opportunity to try it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 13, 2021 1:03:27 GMT -5
...If this is a substantial portion of the list, I would say, 'mamas, teach all your babies to bat right and throw lefty..." That's the top of the list sorted by offensive wins above replacement - over the entire history of MLB. I left Bumgarner in there because he's still playing and he's a good hitter. Following that is a long list with many "cups of coffee". Henderson is a real outlier. We're all waiting for the next one.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 13, 2021 1:43:47 GMT -5
... I'm not really sure I follow your point. That's just a function of there not being many humans that bat right and throw left, right? Or are you trying to say that given a player who bats right throws left and a player who bats left and throws left, you think the latter has a better chance of succeeding? This is just a list of all the MLB players who had that profile. As I stated above, it would be great to have him fit into that list. I'm not sure why it's been rare for position players in MLB, but it has. There were 193 players on the full list, many of them pitchers. There have been minor league position players with the profile but few have reached the majors. I think the important question is why the asymmetry? Why are there so many bat left/throw right position players, many of them stars, and so few bat right/throw left guys? With the great majority of right handed pitchers, why would anyone strive to bat right handed if they are a natural lefty ?
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Post by costpet on Jul 13, 2021 5:42:53 GMT -5
For some reason, the Sox seem to do really well on their international signings. I noticed that 25% of our top 40 were gotten that way.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 13, 2021 5:47:52 GMT -5
...If this is a substantial portion of the list, I would say, 'mamas, teach all your babies to bat right and throw lefty..." That's the top of the list sorted by offensive wins above replacement - over the entire history of MLB. I left Bumgarner in there because he's still playing and he's a good hitter. Following that is a long list with many "cups of coffee". Henderson is a real outlier. We're all waiting for the next one. Well the reason is because lefty throwers tend to be natural lefties. If you are naturally it’s to your advantage to bat lefty, since most pitchers are right handed. As an aside, most switch hitters are also righty throwers, but lefty throwing switch hitters are not as uncommon. Maybe, If the natural lefty is good enough make the majors as a hitter (ie he is really talented and will get the attention of coaches), and he is a lefty, some coach will simply tell him to bat lefty or teach him to switch hit.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 13, 2021 6:53:51 GMT -5
This is just a list of all the MLB players who had that profile. As I stated above, it would be great to have him fit into that list. I'm not sure why it's been rare for position players in MLB, but it has. There were 193 players on the full list, many of them pitchers. There have been minor league position players with the profile but few have reached the majors. I think the important question is why the asymmetry? Why are there so many bat left/throw right position players, many of them stars, and so few bat right/throw left guys? With the great majority of right handed pitchers, why would anyone strive to bat right handed if they are a natural lefty ? Likewise, why would any position player strive to throw left handed when doing so will prevent you from playing in the infield? It's just pointless to learn to bat righty and throw lefty - but there's no reason it should hurt Fabian at this point, since he's an outfielder. It doesn't matter which arm he throws with in CF, and at the plate he's just another RHH.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 13, 2021 7:13:39 GMT -5
For some reason, the Sox seem to do really well on their international signings. I noticed that 25% of our top 40 were gotten that way. Doing well internationally seems only logical for big market teams/perennial contenders. They are not hamstrung by an international draft (yet). So they can pic who they want and don't have to pick "top 20-30" each year.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2021 8:14:00 GMT -5
For some reason, the Sox seem to do really well on their international signings. I noticed that 25% of our top 40 were gotten that way. The Eddie Romero effect
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 13, 2021 8:30:33 GMT -5
With the great majority of right handed pitchers, why would anyone strive to bat right handed if they are a natural lefty ? Likewise, why would any position player strive to throw left handed when doing so will prevent you from playing in the infield? It's just pointless to learn to bat righty and throw lefty - but there's no reason it should hurt Fabian at this point, since he's an outfielder. It doesn't matter which arm he throws with in CF, and at the plate he's just another RHH. Agreed. I think the only player that strived to do that was Billy Wagner. He intentionally taught himself to throw lefty, but he is right handed. Other than him I can't see the point in doing it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2021 8:50:04 GMT -5
I think we are overthinking the bat one way and throw the other way thing. Fabian is an outlier partly because only 10% of the population is left handed. Most people bat and throw with the same hand. However, since 90% of the people are right handed it makes more sense that more of them will be opposite than someone who throws left handed. Add to it that most pitchers are righty so if you can bat left handed then that makes sense. As for why some do the opposite it isn’t entirely clear. However, you see this a lot in Hockey especially, but also in baseball. Your top hand in hockey and the bottom hand in baseball control the stick and bat respectively. Making this hand your dominant hand makes a lot of sense.
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Post by manfred on Jul 13, 2021 9:29:09 GMT -5
That's the top of the list sorted by offensive wins above replacement - over the entire history of MLB. I left Bumgarner in there because he's still playing and he's a good hitter. Following that is a long list with many "cups of coffee". Henderson is a real outlier. We're all waiting for the next one. Well the reason is because lefty throwers tend to be natural lefties. If you are naturally it’s to your advantage to bat lefty, since most pitchers are right handed. As an aside, most switch hitters are also righty throwers, but lefty throwing switch hitters are not as uncommon. Maybe, If the natural lefty is good enough make the majors as a hitter (ie he is really talented and will get the attention of coaches), and he is a lefty, some coach will simply tell him to bat lefty or teach him to switch hit. I’m left handed and batted righty when I was little. That changed fast as coaches got to me and immediately turned me around to bat lefty. I think that is probably very common.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 9:58:40 GMT -5
Back when half of this thread was hoping for Henry Davis to be the #4 overall pick, there was a lot of talk about how the impending switch to robot umpires would forgive any of his pitch receiving liabilities (an assumption that gravely underestimates the power of the umpires union, IMHO -- this is a union that continues to keep Angel Hernandez in a big-league paycheck). I was skeptical of risking the 4th overall pick in part on such a presumption but the 136th overall pick? Go for it. If our generous and benevolent robot overlords do take over the duty of calling balls and strikes within the next few years, one big beneficiary will appear to be Nathan Hickey, the Sox pick in the 5th round. That's much more of a risk worth taking.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 13, 2021 10:09:03 GMT -5
Back when half of this thread was hoping for Henry Davis to be the #4 overall pick, there was a lot of talk about how the impending switch to robot umpires would forgive any of his pitch receiving liabilities (an assumption that gravely underestimates the power of the umpires union, IMHO -- this is a union that continues to keep Angel Hernandez in a big-league paycheck). I was skeptical of risking the 4th overall pick in part on such a presumption but the 136th overall pick? Go for it. If our generous and benevolent robot overlords do take over the duty of calling balls and strikes within the next few years, one big beneficiary will appear to be Nathan Hickey, the Sox pick in the 5th round. That's much more of a risk worth taking. The defensive issues with Hickey are not as concentrated on framing the way they with Davis. Hickey is a poor athlete with poor agility. There are real (and likely fatal to his future as a catcher) questions not just about his ability to frame but about his ability to block balls and field his position when need be. That being said, also like Davis, I've found his arm to be good and supposedly he has good pop times.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2021 18:20:25 GMT -5
Daniel McElveny...the only player announced as a utility player ( via Ian Browne):
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 13, 2021 18:26:46 GMT -5
Daniel McElveny….baseball player
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sportshubby
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yup that is my twitter handle
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Post by sportshubby on Jul 13, 2021 22:03:42 GMT -5
So...are we just gonna pass on those pitcher things? My comments in the 2021 draft forum may have made it sound like I was advocating for that, but i would think we may end up with a good number of senior pitchers to fill out those spots. Though with two dsl teams, a fully staffed fcl, and no short season ball, it might not be as needed this year. Turns out we drafted a fully functional roster. Sign them all and give them a league to play in...oh wait nevermind they took it away. Super happy with this draft assuming nothing crazy happens during the signing period.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 7:24:49 GMT -5
Likewise, why would any position player strive to throw left handed when doing so will prevent you from playing in the infield? It's just pointless to learn to bat righty and throw lefty - but there's no reason it should hurt Fabian at this point, since he's an outfielder. It doesn't matter which arm he throws with in CF, and at the plate he's just another RHH. Agreed. I think the only player that strived to do that was Billy Wagner. He intentionally taught himself to throw lefty, but he is right handed. Other than him I can't see the point in doing it. Rich Hill is naturally right-handed, but his much older brothers (so much older than I played with them in Milton!) convinced and taught him to pitch left-handed.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 14, 2021 7:56:30 GMT -5
Agreed. I think the only player that strived to do that was Billy Wagner. He intentionally taught himself to throw lefty, but he is right handed. Other than him I can't see the point in doing it. Rich Hill is naturally right-handed, but his much older brothers (so much older than I played with them in Milton!) convinced and taught him to pitch left-handed. Awesome anecdote. Talk about a million dollar idea...
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Post by retiredvendor on Jul 14, 2021 8:48:45 GMT -5
Agreed. I think the only player that strived to do that was Billy Wagner. He intentionally taught himself to throw lefty, but he is right handed. Other than him I can't see the point in doing it. Rich Hill is naturally right-handed, but his much older brothers (so much older than I played with them in Milton!) convinced and taught him to pitch left-handed. I’m also from Milton and can confirm hearing the same thing. His older brothers were great players too, though they did not reach nearly the level that Rich has. But they knew the game as well as the value of left handed pitching, and taught Rich well. Lloyd and Larry are older than me, but I had the pleasure of playing Scgroi ball with them when I was a kid.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2021 14:35:33 GMT -5
Mason McRae is a guy who has been following prospects with a heavy skew toward analytics and built a 700 prospect draft list. Up at the top, I'll admit he's relatively down on Mayer compared to consensus and ranks him at #5, only one spot in front of Trey Sweeney who he loves. So as you can see, he's not afraid to deviate from consensus and like I said, is heavy into analytics. With that said, I'm going to post some of his write-ups for our picks which I found to be quite interesting: Day 2 picks (excluding Fabian and McDonough, which I'll post in their respective pick threads): Nathan Hickey (#89): Wyatt Olds (#179): Daniel McElveny (#427): Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (#609):
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 20:50:41 GMT -5
Rich Hill is naturally right-handed, but his much older brothers (so much older than I played with them in Milton!) convinced and taught him to pitch left-handed. Awesome anecdote. Talk about a million dollar idea... "The son of a retired high school principal, the Boston native [Milton and Milton High!] is the youngest of five children, the youngest by 15 years. His brother John encouraged him to throw lefthanded by insisting a 5-year-old Rich hold a ball only in his left hand. His sister Cathi played field hockey, basketball and rugby offering "a little toughness there," Hill said. Brother Larry played outfield at Boston College and was "determined, a hard worker. Still is." And Lloyd taught Rich how to throw a curve." www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rich-hill-pitching-with-conviction/article_53ab45ed-d30f-543c-bc4e-028f77303878.html
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Post by geostorm on Jul 14, 2021 21:32:27 GMT -5
That's the top of the list sorted by offensive wins above replacement - over the entire history of MLB. I left Bumgarner in there because he's still playing and he's a good hitter. Following that is a long list with many "cups of coffee". Henderson is a real outlier. We're all waiting for the next one. Well the reason is because lefty throwers tend to be natural lefties. If you are naturally it’s to your advantage to bat lefty, since most pitchers are right handed. As an aside, most switch hitters are also righty throwers, but lefty throwing switch hitters are not as uncommon. Maybe, If the natural lefty is good enough make the majors as a hitter (ie he is really talented and will get the attention of coaches), and he is a lefty, some coach will simply tell him to bat lefty or teach him to switch hit. I am a natural lefty, that begin my LL "farm league" playing days, as a 7yo, during the mid60s, as a right handed batter. My very first coach, Coach Lewis, about a handful of games into that season, asked my folks if he could keep me after a few games and regular practices, for about 20-30 minutes or so, to pitch me extra BP, but with me hitting LH...
...a couple of weeks in, across 10 or so games+practicess, I started settling in, and, by end of that season, I was good enough, to be able to switch hit at a decent level, in the backyard Wiffle ball field, w my 3 brothers, in spirited 2 on 2s, as a switch hitter.
This was really neat, because we'd each take an MLB team (Red Sox always went 1st; Twins most often went 2nd), and, mock out that teams batting order, trying to mimic that teams hitters, at the plate, and, while I was able to do a pretty good Yaz, I was esp excited to be able to rock my fave player at the time - Reggie Smith - from both sides of the plate!
I'm imagining, others that were born natural LH, as I was, but hit RH, perhaps did so, for similar reasons I started batting RH, as a
natural lefty...
...b/c the throwing may have been truly natural, but hitting a baseball, isn't, and, well the person the first put a bat in my hand, and began under handing me a baseball, at 4 or so yo, my Mom, hit RH, and, suppose it was most natural for her, to teach what you did, yourself, to your 4 boys, even "the lefty"
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