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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 9:17:47 GMT -5
This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint. Baez has just as much interest and is just as likely to get 150 million plus. There is potentially is no bargain there. In fact, the Correa case gets pushed even more as Baez gets more overvalued. Potentially no bargain and Baez gets more overvalued. Those are just opinions that don't really have any real information to justify. Who has overvalued Baez? Nobody yet.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 9:25:00 GMT -5
Baez has just as much interest and is just as likely to get 150 million plus. There is potentially is no bargain there. In fact, the Correa case gets pushed even more as Baez gets more overvalued. Potentially no bargain and Baez gets more overvalued. Those are just opinions that don't really have any real information to justify. Who has overvalued Baez? Nobody yet. Javy Baez has already overvalued himself starting last season. You think he's going to take less than half what the Cubs offered a half year ago?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 23, 2021 9:27:57 GMT -5
Correa is my choice by far, I personally think he is such a good player that it would be borderline malpractice for a team with resources like the Boston Red Sox to not even explore signing him. He only just tuned 27 and I don't think we have even seen his best baseball yet. I think his ceiling is as high as anyone in baseball. Players of his age and caliber do not hit free agency very often and you need to be willing to go big when they do.
My 2nd choice would be Baez. He is an elite defender and can play 2B/SS/3B, his power is legit and I think might even play up at Fenway as a RHH. His contract should be pretty reasonable too, and our lineup should be deep enough that we don't need him to be great with the bat, just not be terrible.
I want nothing to do with Trevor Story.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2021 9:30:26 GMT -5
I think they go with Baez. He'll be cheaper than Correa and cost a lot less years. I don't have any feeling at all that they'll be in on Story.
I think Baez kind of fits their timeline.
At some point the Sox will either re-sign X and not want to give Devers the 300 million plus I think he'll get in free agency assuming as he gets older he has an even higher gear offensively and he continue to be viable defensively (yes, viable is being kind of charitable but the guy has the skills to play the position).
The other most likely possibility is that X moves on to be paid in the Lindor/Correa tier and the Sox throw their money at Devers instead. I think this possibility is less likely.
I think the more likely possibility is that X badly wants to stay, opts out, and gets a contract that pays him something like 27 million over 8 more years meaning that he'll be the face of the franchise, and most likely Devers winds up elsewhere. The most likely scenario in my mind is one stays and the other goes between X and Devers.
Either way, for now Devers is at 3b and X is either at SS or possibly even moves to 2b if Baez signs.
I figure Baez is a 4 or 5 year deal. I think he bridges them to the day they wind up with either Devers or X at 3b, Mayer at SS, and Yorke at 2b (with Casas at 1b).
That infield probably takes shape come around 2025 or 2026 and carries them to the end of the decade.
Correa's presence means that most likely both Devers and X would be gone. Yes, Devers can DH, but I don't see the Sox giving him more money than another team that might pay him as a guy who can play 1b or 3b for the front half of a contract.
So I think Baez fits the timeline better. Baez and either Devers or X are still around as Yorke is nearing major league readiness. For all we know, Downs might even figure in by then (or not given how bad he was last year, but I'm not giving up on him yet).
I suspect we'll see Baez in a Red Sox uniform.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 9:47:19 GMT -5
Potentially no bargain and Baez gets more overvalued. Those are just opinions that don't really have any real information to justify. Who has overvalued Baez? Nobody yet. Javy Baez has already overvalued himself starting last season. You think he's going to take less than half what the Cubs offered a half year ago? How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 9:49:46 GMT -5
Javy Baez has already overvalued himself starting last season. You think he's going to take less than half what the Cubs offered a half year ago? How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also. Not sure how much weight but I'm sure they're not making it up. At 5 years it would be 32 million AAV for that offer to Baez. That sound like a better deal to everyone? Baez being the highest paid player on the team?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Nov 23, 2021 10:06:40 GMT -5
Javy Baez has already overvalued himself starting last season. You think he's going to take less than half what the Cubs offered a half year ago? How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also. That tweet was at the start of the year he hit 203 .238 .360 .599 with 3 steals. He was coming off two years of hitting like Xander.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 10:30:34 GMT -5
How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also. Not sure how much weight but I'm sure they're not making it up. At 5 years it would be 32 million AAV for that offer to Baez. That sound like a better deal to everyone? Baez being the highest paid player on the team? Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 10:35:51 GMT -5
This is from the Athletic and seems to be inline with most I have read for Baez.
"That also aligns with finding a compromise point between the earlier proposed low point ($17 million per season) and the proposed high point ($25 million per). The longer the deal is for Báez, the lower the average annual value. You can imagine a seven-year deal at $21 million per year ($147 million total) or six at $22.5 million per year ($135 million total) or five at $24 million each ($120 million total)."
Which is why I said 25, I would hope and expect the Sox would rather go short and high rather than long and low. And as far as I am concerned he is worth it and has proven to be. All the guys who are rated higher have their own warts but would be substantially more. I would expect that if we compared all of the top FA SSs numbers vs cost 3,4 years down the road Baez wouldn't be at the top but he wouldn't be at the bottom either. He has been healthy, consistent and I think he could learn some plate discipline in Boston like he showed in NY. Who knows but it could happen on a team that emphasizes that and a team with more offense around him.
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Post by manfred on Nov 23, 2021 11:10:24 GMT -5
Would you rather replace Xander at SS with
a) Derek Jeter
b) Carlos Correa
c) Manny Machado
For me… tie.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2021 11:14:59 GMT -5
I forget - why are we supposed to hate Correa again? Is it just the cheating stuff or is there more to it than that?
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 23, 2021 12:06:21 GMT -5
This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint. Baez has just as much interest and is just as likely to get 150 million plus. There is potentially is no bargain there. In fact, the Correa case gets pushed even more as Baez gets more overvalued. MLB TR: Baez 5/100, Story 6/126, Correa 10/320) Ben Clemens: Baez 4/80, Story 5/115, Correa 9/297
Median Fangraphs Crowdsource: Baez 4/80, Story 6/150, Correa 8/240
I want nothing to do with Baez at 150 million plus, but 4/80, or fewer years at a higher AAV, would be solid. He also has no QO attached, which is yet another bit of added value versus the other top FA shortstops.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 23, 2021 12:10:02 GMT -5
I forget - why are we supposed to hate Correa again? Is it just the cheating stuff or is there more to it than that? I fully support looking at the Fan Value Above Wins Above Replacement (FVAWAR) metric. Manny Machado has the lowest negative number among non-criminal active players. Slow pitchers also score poorly.
Maybe someone will educate us, but Correa is pretty close to neutral for me
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 23, 2021 12:18:19 GMT -5
I forget - why are we supposed to hate Correa again? Is it just the cheating stuff or is there more to it than that? For me it's mostly that, and the fact that instead of showing remorse for it he seems more interested in playing the heel. His on-field antics with the wrist tapping and such probably wouldn't bother me as much if he hadn't already made a bad impression on me, but still, I'm not a fan of that kind of stuff. I prefer players who respect their opponents and just go about their business (e.g. JBJ).
I freely admit I'm in the minority on this, but I feel the same way about things like posing and bat flipping after a home run. Like, yes, the opposing pitcher is a grown man and can handle it, but it's also unnecessary and disrespectful.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2021 12:23:55 GMT -5
I forget - why are we supposed to hate Correa again? Is it just the cheating stuff or is there more to it than that? For me it's mostly that, and the fact that instead of showing remorse for it he seems more interested in playing the heel. His on-field antics with the wrist tapping and such probably wouldn't bother me as much if he hadn't already made a bad impression on me, but still, I'm not a fan of that kind of stuff. I prefer players who respect their opponents and just go about their business (e.g. JBJ).
I freely admit I'm in the minority on this, but I feel the same way about things like posing and bat flipping after a home run. Like, yes, the opposing pitcher is a grown man and can handle it, but it's also unnecessary and disrespectful. I am in the probably underpopulated pro-bat flip, anti-posing quadrant.
Bat flips: kinetic, joyful, expressive. Posing: stoic, arrogant, dull.
And then when you pose but the ball doesn't leave the yard you hurt your team and look like a vain dumbass.
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Post by manfred on Nov 23, 2021 12:24:34 GMT -5
I forget - why are we supposed to hate Correa again? Is it just the cheating stuff or is there more to it than that? For me it's mostly that, and the fact that instead of showing remorse for it he seems more interested in playing the heel. His on-field antics with the wrist tapping and such probably wouldn't bother me as much if he hadn't already made a bad impression on me, but still, I'm not a fan of that kind of stuff. I prefer players who respect their opponents and just go about their business (e.g. JBJ).
I freely admit I'm in the minority on this, but I feel the same way about things like posing and bat flipping after a home run. Like, yes, the opposing pitcher is a grown man and can handle it, but it's also unnecessary and disrespectful. I don’t mind natural glee, so posing etc is fine overall. But you nailed it that in his case he seems to be trolling after getting caught cheating. I think people have gone very easy on that team. What he did is a near equivalent to the Black Sox, and folks just kind of shrug. I would not want Eddie Cicotte either. It is enough that Cora is the manager. I’d prefer mot yo be Cheaters East.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 23, 2021 12:31:43 GMT -5
Meh, I think sign stealing is fine and the burden should be on the teams to call up the local college and talk to a professor about cryptography. Better yet, MLB could let them call pitches electronically.
My sense is that there was an awful lot of sign stealing going on, and there were only a few weak prey teams that had no clue what was going on.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 15:10:07 GMT -5
Not sure how much weight but I'm sure they're not making it up. At 5 years it would be 32 million AAV for that offer to Baez. That sound like a better deal to everyone? Baez being the highest paid player on the team? Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP. Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2021 15:29:34 GMT -5
Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP. Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him. Because he's not going to sit out a season if nobody offers him the 160? Past offers don't mean a whole lot if the offer isn't on the table anymore and nobody is approaching it. Just because he thought he'd get more in free agency than the 160 doesn't mean it's automatically going to happen. It wouldn't be the first time an athlete bet on themselves and ended up taking less than their peak offer and it wouldn't be the last.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 15:36:22 GMT -5
Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him. Because he's not going to sit out a season if nobody offers him the 160? Past offers don't mean a whole lot if the offer isn't on the table anymore and nobody is approaching it. Just because he thought he'd get more in free agency than the 160 doesn't mean it's automatically going to happen. It wouldn't be the first time an athlete bet on themselves and ended up taking less than their peak offer and it wouldn't be the last. Even if that is the case. People expecting a straight up 4 year deal will be ticked. Baez will want to reposition himself with that deal a year later.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 15:38:30 GMT -5
Would you rather replace Xander at SS with a) Derek Jeter b) Carlos Correa c) Manny Machado For me… tie. I don't get what you are saying.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2021 15:40:42 GMT -5
Because he's not going to sit out a season if nobody offers him the 160? Past offers don't mean a whole lot if the offer isn't on the table anymore and nobody is approaching it. Just because he thought he'd get more in free agency than the 160 doesn't mean it's automatically going to happen. It wouldn't be the first time an athlete bet on themselves and ended up taking less than their peak offer and it wouldn't be the last. Even if that is the case. People expecting a straight up 4 year deal will be ticked. Baez will want to reposition himself with that deal a year later. Or maybe he takes 4-5 year deal at 20-25 AAV remembering he cost himself the chance at 160 already and wants the security now.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 15:50:55 GMT -5
Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP. Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him. I take it you didn't read my post that quoted the Athletic. The one that has projected. 24 for 5, 22.5 for 6 and 21 for 7. It would explain your question. This is why I originally said the amount without a term doesn't tell us much. Bottom line is you are suggesting a blown out of proportion 32m aav is too much for the Sox. Well of course it is and nobody is projecting he is going to sign for that much. You have assumed that based on a reported number with no years attached to it. My argument is that he could be worth the lower projections in comparison to the SS at the top of the market. Like the projections above.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 16:11:52 GMT -5
Would you rather replace Xander at SS with a) Derek Jeter b) Carlos Correa c) Manny Machado For me… tie. I don't get what you are saying. He hates all 3.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 16:14:42 GMT -5
Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him. I take it you didn't read my post that quoted the Athletic. The one that has projected. 24 for 5, 22.5 for 6 and 21 for 7. It would explain your question. This is why I originally said the amount without a term doesn't tell us much. Bottom line is you are suggesting a blown out of proportion 32m aav is too much for the Sox. Well of course it is and nobody is projecting he is going to sign for that much. You have assumed that based on a reported number with no years attached to it. My argument is that he could be worth the lower projections in comparison to the SS at the top of the market. Like the projections above. This is all rumors. Projections don't take into account about opt outs. Everyone is looking at this through a Red Sox fans eyes. I'm looking at this through Baez's or his agents eyes. I'd be looking to at least match the last offer in spring training 8 months ago. Whether I get there now or a year or two from now. I will want to get there.
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