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Post by manfred on Nov 23, 2021 16:42:43 GMT -5
Would you rather replace Xander at SS with a) Derek Jeter b) Carlos Correa c) Manny Machado For me… tie. I don't get what you are saying. I would be sick to see Correa at short.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Nov 23, 2021 18:16:43 GMT -5
I do not want any part of Baez unless it's well below 100 million (not happening). Flashy player, but strikes out way too much and I don't like how he handled the New York media during his few months in New York. Correa is obviously the big ticket guy and someone you would fork over the $$$ to if you want a big-time shortstop. Story is meh, guess it depends on the price.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 15:46:45 GMT -5
This tweet crushed my soul. I am beyond sad 😢 Hate to tie this to Correa but the best free agent the next 5 years is off the board now. So what are the Sox saving their money for at this point?
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Post by Canseco on Nov 24, 2021 15:50:04 GMT -5
Don’t sign any of these guys. Worry about getting our own core extended while improving overall big league depth. Pitching and defense, please.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 16:16:14 GMT -5
Don’t sign any of these guys. Worry about getting our own core extended while improving overall big league depth. Pitching and defense, please. Stick a gun to my head and I won't lie to you and say that I think Correa has more future value than Xander as Xander nears his 30's and needs to move positions.
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Post by kjkramer on Nov 24, 2021 16:24:13 GMT -5
None of these options. Work with what we already have and use that money elsewhere. I would be fine with a 1 year + optio. Year with Iglesias for cheap depth
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 24, 2021 16:28:29 GMT -5
Don’t sign any of these guys. Worry about getting our own core extended while improving overall big league depth. Pitching and defense, please. Stick a gun to my head and I won't lie to you and say that I think Correa has more future value than Xander as Xander nears his 30's and needs to move positions. I don't disagree that Correa has a good chance of being a better player over the next 10 years total but I'm also not clamoring to sign xandy to a 300+ million dollar contract that I think Correa will end up getting. I hate to see home grown red sox studs leave but 300+ million dollar contracts almost never work out for the team that signs them.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 16:47:07 GMT -5
Stick a gun to my head and I won't lie to you and say that I think Correa has more future value than Xander as Xander nears his 30's and needs to move positions. I don't disagree that Correa has a good chance of being a better player over the next 10 years total but I'm also not clamoring to sign xandy to a 300+ million dollar contract that I think Correa will end up getting. I hate to see home grown red sox studs leave but 300+ million dollar contracts almost never work out for the team that signs them. Xander is opting out in order to get that 200 million plus dollar contract. He's already said he's opting out. All I'm just saying is "resign all our guys" isn't always the best path. Would love to keep Xander at under 200 million in his next deal, but would he like that?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 24, 2021 16:52:18 GMT -5
I don't disagree that Correa has a good chance of being a better player over the next 10 years total but I'm also not clamoring to sign xandy to a 300+ million dollar contract that I think Correa will end up getting. I hate to see home grown red sox studs leave but 300+ million dollar contracts almost never work out for the team that signs them. Xander is opting out in order to get that 200 million plus dollar contract. He's already said he's opting out. All I'm just saying is "resign all our guys" isn't always the best path. Would love to keep Xander at under 200 million in his next deal, but would he like that? Xander at 200 million>>>Correa at 300 million.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 18:24:30 GMT -5
Xander is opting out in order to get that 200 million plus dollar contract. He's already said he's opting out. All I'm just saying is "resign all our guys" isn't always the best path. Would love to keep Xander at under 200 million in his next deal, but would he like that? Xander at 200 million>>>Correa at 300 million. Will Xander want more than 200 million AND why not BOTH?!
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 24, 2021 18:29:47 GMT -5
Xander at 200 million>>>Correa at 300 million. Will Xander want more than 200 million AND why not BOTH?! To answer why not both I'd say because there's a whole team to build out and not just 2 players. In terms of Xander I think he'll want an 8 year deal in the 240 range and that may be conservative unfortunately.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2021 18:32:08 GMT -5
Will Xander want more than 200 million AND why not BOTH?! To answer why not both I'd say because there's a whole team to build out and not just 2 players. That's about what it would take to extend both X and Devers and why it's not likely both are retained and why I think X is more likely.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 18:42:54 GMT -5
Will Xander want more than 200 million AND why not BOTH?! To answer why not both I'd say because there's a whole team to build out and not just 2 players. In terms of Xander I think he'll want an 8 year deal in the 240 range and that may be conservative unfortunately. So 8 years at 240 which runs to age 38 (when he signs the deal at age 30 after opt out next season), which is totally plausible and a great guess. Meanwhile people don't want Correa, who's a true Short Stop the next 5 years at a 10 year deal at 300 million plus that runs through age 37. Hmm? Does that make more sense to anyone who would rather see the best Red Sox team instead of the best homegrown Red Sox team? I would love to keep Xander at the best deal possible, but Xander gave the Sox one sweetheart deal already and this is his last big payday. I'm sure he'll let the Sox come close with a offer and take a little less. Maybe 220 instead 240 or something? Does that make the most sense for the Sox to even do that?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 24, 2021 19:15:05 GMT -5
To answer why not both I'd say because there's a whole team to build out and not just 2 players. In terms of Xander I think he'll want an 8 year deal in the 240 range and that may be conservative unfortunately. So 8 years at 240 which runs to age 38 (when he signs the deal at age 30 after opt out next season), which is totally plausible and a great guess. Meanwhile people don't want Correa, who's a true Short Stop the next 5 years at a 10 year deal at 300 million plus that runs through age 37. Hmm? Does that make more sense to anyone who would rather see the best Red Sox team instead of the best homegrown Red Sox team? I would love to keep Xander at the best deal possible, but Xander gave the Sox one sweetheart deal already and this is his last big payday. I'm sure he'll let the Sox come close with a offer and take a little less. Maybe 220 instead 240 or something? Does that make the most sense for the Sox to even do that? I'm on the side of wanting neither of them at those prices is what I would say to this. It's really rare that a player ends up being worth 30+ million for 8+ years. And yea itd be really crappy to see xandy for at least for the first few years but by the end of the deal I think we'd be happy he's gone.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 24, 2021 20:01:50 GMT -5
To answer why not both I'd say because there's a whole team to build out and not just 2 players. In terms of Xander I think he'll want an 8 year deal in the 240 range and that may be conservative unfortunately. So 8 years at 240 which runs to age 38 (when he signs the deal at age 30 after opt out next season), which is totally plausible and a great guess. Meanwhile people don't want Correa, who's a true Short Stop the next 5 years at a 10 year deal at 300 million plus that runs through age 37. Hmm? Does that make more sense to anyone who would rather see the best Red Sox team instead of the best homegrown Red Sox team? I would love to keep Xander at the best deal possible, but Xander gave the Sox one sweetheart deal already and this is his last big payday. I'm sure he'll let the Sox come close with a offer and take a little less. Maybe 220 instead 240 or something? Does that make the most sense for the Sox to even do that? To answer your question - absolutely not. Not at 220, not at 200. If he asks for 240 you consider it a non-starter, sign Correa and let Xander know he should practice playing the ball off the wall in left during the offseason (5 guys for LF, CF, RF and 2B isn't the worst thing) and thank him for his time here. IF you think Xander can be a SS for the duration, you can make an argument, but as we're (the fans) already discussing moving him off of SS, it seems unlikely. If you move Xander to a corner OF position and anticipate he will be about an average fielder, then his 2021 season value is nearly identical to Teoscar Hernandez (.368 wOBA to .369 wOBA / 1.5 BsR to 2.3 BsR / 0.5 UZR to 2.3 UZR). While Xander was valued at 5.2 fWAR last year, Teoscar was valued at only 3.9 fWAR despite similar plate appearances (603 to 595). So if you move him to a corner outfield, you need to take about 1 win off of his value projection (as MLB has proposed using fWAR going forward, this is actually really important). Let's assume for a minute that steamers is right and Xander will post 4.3 fWAR next season. Then let's assume he can continue that pace through the next 3 seasons (through his age 31 season; this is being generous) but he loses 0.5 fWAR (it's basic, but fangraphs uses this methodology frequently) AND we assume 8mil per 1 fWAR, then we get 239mil for an 8 year contract for Xander at market value. So IF he stays at SS for the next 9 seasons then theoretically that 8/240 contract is right in line with what he should get on the the open market. Now, if we account for a positional change in 3 years (again being generous) then the above number drops to 179mil. That would be a theoretical market value, with many assumptions in the favor of Xander, but it doesn't account for a discount from the team signing him a year early without any current competition - so let's assume there's a 10% discount for being the home team and taking-on the risk of extending him a year early (this may seem like a lot, but I'm guessing it's probably a bit low when you look at other extensions). This brings us to 161.1mil - but let's round it to 160 because round numbers are easier. So, you get 160mil/8yrs....which is the same AAV that he's making now. If Xander would agree to that, which is essentially a 6 year extension of his current contract (WITHOUT player options) then I'd be all for it, but my guess is he's wanting a raise, so it needs to be a shorter contract, I would propose $150mil/6yrs and wouldn't budge on it. And for those thinking that a strong-armed SS with poor range would be a great fit at 2B (where he would have more positional value), please note that second basemen average about 33% more putouts per season while only averaging about 4% fewer assists (SS make 9% more 'plays' per season per DRS calculations) - no matter how you cut it, you can't hide a bad defender at 2B (and Xander at age 32+ isn't going to be pretty). Sorry for the long-winded response (was shorter in my head).
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 21:21:21 GMT -5
So 8 years at 240 which runs to age 38 (when he signs the deal at age 30 after opt out next season), which is totally plausible and a great guess. Meanwhile people don't want Correa, who's a true Short Stop the next 5 years at a 10 year deal at 300 million plus that runs through age 37. Hmm? Does that make more sense to anyone who would rather see the best Red Sox team instead of the best homegrown Red Sox team? I would love to keep Xander at the best deal possible, but Xander gave the Sox one sweetheart deal already and this is his last big payday. I'm sure he'll let the Sox come close with a offer and take a little less. Maybe 220 instead 240 or something? Does that make the most sense for the Sox to even do that? To answer your question - absolutely not. Not at 220, not at 200. If he asks for 240 you consider it a non-starter, sign Correa and let Xander know he should practice playing the ball off the wall in left during the offseason (5 guys for LF, CF, RF and 2B isn't the worst thing) and thank him for his time here. IF you think Xander can be a SS for the duration, you can make an argument, but as we're (the fans) already discussing moving him off of SS, it seems unlikely. If you move Xander to a corner OF position and anticipate he will be about an average fielder, then his 2021 season value is nearly identical to Teoscar Hernandez (.368 wOBA to .369 wOBA / 1.5 BsR to 2.3 BsR / 0.5 UZR to 2.3 UZR). While Xander was valued at 5.2 fWAR last year, Teoscar was valued at only 3.9 fWAR despite similar plate appearances (603 to 595). So if you move him to a corner outfield, you need to take about 1 win off of his value projection (as MLB has proposed using fWAR going forward, this is actually really important). Let's assume for a minute that steamers is right and Xander will post 4.3 fWAR next season. Then let's assume he can continue that pace through the next 3 seasons (through his age 31 season; this is being generous) but he loses 0.5 fWAR (it's basic, but fangraphs uses this methodology frequently) AND we assume 8mil per 1 fWAR, then we get 239mil for an 8 year contract for Xander at market value. So IF he stays at SS for the next 9 seasons then theoretically that 8/240 contract is right in line with what he should get on the the open market. Now, if we account for a positional change in 3 years (again being generous) then the above number drops to 179mil. That would be a theoretical market value, with many assumptions in the favor of Xander, but it doesn't account for a discount from the team signing him a year early without any current competition - so let's assume there's a 10% discount for being the home team and taking-on the risk of extending him a year early (this may seem like a lot, but I'm guessing it's probably a bit low when you look at other extensions). This brings us to 161.1mil - but let's round it to 160 because round numbers are easier. So, you get 160mil/8yrs....which is the same AAV that he's making now. If Xander would agree to that, which is essentially a 6 year extension of his current contract (WITHOUT player options) then I'd be all for it, but my guess is he's wanting a raise, so it needs to be a shorter contract, I would propose $150mil/6yrs and wouldn't budge on it. And for those thinking that a strong-armed SS with poor range would be a great fit at 2B (where he would have more positional value), please note that second basemen average about 33% more putouts per season while only averaging about 4% fewer assists (SS make 9% more 'plays' per season per DRS calculations) - no matter how you cut it, you can't hide a bad defender at 2B (and Xander at age 32+ isn't going to be pretty). Sorry for the long-winded response (was shorter in my head). I'd go probably 7 years at 175 most for Xander next contract. Which is a extra year than what you had it at. All of what you said is exactly my thoughts. The 2nd base point is right on. Xander would be more passable at 2nd base but still lousy. A move to LF makes sense, but who knows if he's even willing to go there. A move to 3B would be good. Devers is there currently so can't do that yet until JDM leaves. Who knows if he would even be better than Devers if he did move there? In all honesty, Xander might be best to move on from. His positional value is about to plummet, like you pointed out. His contract demands are going up from last contract. He's going to be a good bat but a enigma trying to find a position to play him. His best position might be DH soon (think about that for a minute). Versus Correa where there's ZERO questions the next 5 years where he's going. Not going anywhere but Short Stop. So the argument of Xander at 200>>Correa at 300 million is really homerism if we are truly being honest with ourselves. Correa is more valuable, believe it or not at 300 million.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 24, 2021 22:15:08 GMT -5
Texas in the hunt also for one of these guys. Sounds like they're going to get someone.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 25, 2021 8:03:17 GMT -5
To answer your question - absolutely not. Not at 220, not at 200. If he asks for 240 you consider it a non-starter, sign Correa and let Xander know he should practice playing the ball off the wall in left during the offseason (5 guys for LF, CF, RF and 2B isn't the worst thing) and thank him for his time here. IF you think Xander can be a SS for the duration, you can make an argument, but as we're (the fans) already discussing moving him off of SS, it seems unlikely. If you move Xander to a corner OF position and anticipate he will be about an average fielder, then his 2021 season value is nearly identical to Teoscar Hernandez (.368 wOBA to .369 wOBA / 1.5 BsR to 2.3 BsR / 0.5 UZR to 2.3 UZR). While Xander was valued at 5.2 fWAR last year, Teoscar was valued at only 3.9 fWAR despite similar plate appearances (603 to 595). So if you move him to a corner outfield, you need to take about 1 win off of his value projection (as MLB has proposed using fWAR going forward, this is actually really important). Let's assume for a minute that steamers is right and Xander will post 4.3 fWAR next season. Then let's assume he can continue that pace through the next 3 seasons (through his age 31 season; this is being generous) but he loses 0.5 fWAR (it's basic, but fangraphs uses this methodology frequently) AND we assume 8mil per 1 fWAR, then we get 239mil for an 8 year contract for Xander at market value. So IF he stays at SS for the next 9 seasons then theoretically that 8/240 contract is right in line with what he should get on the the open market. Now, if we account for a positional change in 3 years (again being generous) then the above number drops to 179mil. That would be a theoretical market value, with many assumptions in the favor of Xander, but it doesn't account for a discount from the team signing him a year early without any current competition - so let's assume there's a 10% discount for being the home team and taking-on the risk of extending him a year early (this may seem like a lot, but I'm guessing it's probably a bit low when you look at other extensions). This brings us to 161.1mil - but let's round it to 160 because round numbers are easier. So, you get 160mil/8yrs....which is the same AAV that he's making now. If Xander would agree to that, which is essentially a 6 year extension of his current contract (WITHOUT player options) then I'd be all for it, but my guess is he's wanting a raise, so it needs to be a shorter contract, I would propose $150mil/6yrs and wouldn't budge on it. And for those thinking that a strong-armed SS with poor range would be a great fit at 2B (where he would have more positional value), please note that second basemen average about 33% more putouts per season while only averaging about 4% fewer assists (SS make 9% more 'plays' per season per DRS calculations) - no matter how you cut it, you can't hide a bad defender at 2B (and Xander at age 32+ isn't going to be pretty). Sorry for the long-winded response (was shorter in my head). I'd go probably 7 years at 175 most for Xander next contract. Which is a extra year than what you had it at. All of what you said is exactly my thoughts. The 2nd base point is right on. Xander would be more passable at 2nd base but still lousy. A move to LF makes sense, but who knows if he's even willing to go there. A move to 3B would be good. Devers is there currently so can't do that yet until JDM leaves. Who knows if he would even be better than Devers if he did move there? In all honesty, Xander might be best to move on from. His positional value is about to plummet, like you pointed out. His contract demands are going up from last contract. He's going to be a good bat but a enigma trying to find a position to play him. His best position might be DH soon (think about that for a minute). Versus Correa where there's ZERO questions the next 5 years where he's going. Not going anywhere but Short Stop. So the argument of Xander at 200>>Correa at 300 million is really homerism if we are truly being honest with ourselves. Correa is more valuable, believe it or not at 300 million.
WAR since 2015 (Correa's debut) WAR | Bogaerts | Correa
| BRef | 28.2 | 34.1
| Fangraphs | 31.4 | 25.1
| WARP | 24.3 | 21.0
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Two out of three versions of WAR say that Bogaerts has been better than Correa. Not just within $100 million dollars as good as Correa, better. But why look all the way back to 2015 when Correa was 20? That seems really unfair to him. So let's try again.
Last 3 years WAR
| Bogaerts | Correa | BRef | 12.8
| 12.6
| Fangraphs | 13.9 | 9.7 | WARP | 9.8 | 6.6 |
It's the same story, except now BRef thinks Bogaerts has been as valuable as Correa too. Why? Because he's a more consistent hitter and he's much better at staying on the field. I noticed that nobody has offered any argument as to why Correa is going to suddenly stop getting hurt all the time once he signs a 10-year megadeal. If you have one handy, please share.
Look, I get the defense thing. But Bogaerts has always played below-average defense and Correa has always played above-average defense, and, as the numbers above show, Bogaerts has still produced similar or better value anyway. I just don't think Bogaerts is hemorrhaging wins at SS the way everybody else seems to, nor do I think he'll become an albatross at 2B or 3B if can turn himself into a decent defender there once it gets to that point. (Remember, Bogaerts has played SS because to this point he's been better at defense than most 3B and 2B, who are not good enough to play SS.)
If you think Correa at $300 million is the better bet, fine, that's reasonable. But don't act like it's a math problem the rest of us are too stupid to solve - Bogaerts could easily continue to produce equal or better value than Correa over the next 10 years at 2/3 of the price.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 25, 2021 10:32:00 GMT -5
I'd go probably 7 years at 175 most for Xander next contract. Which is a extra year than what you had it at. All of what you said is exactly my thoughts. The 2nd base point is right on. Xander would be more passable at 2nd base but still lousy. A move to LF makes sense, but who knows if he's even willing to go there. A move to 3B would be good. Devers is there currently so can't do that yet until JDM leaves. Who knows if he would even be better than Devers if he did move there? In all honesty, Xander might be best to move on from. His positional value is about to plummet, like you pointed out. His contract demands are going up from last contract. He's going to be a good bat but a enigma trying to find a position to play him. His best position might be DH soon (think about that for a minute). Versus Correa where there's ZERO questions the next 5 years where he's going. Not going anywhere but Short Stop. So the argument of Xander at 200>>Correa at 300 million is really homerism if we are truly being honest with ourselves. Correa is more valuable, believe it or not at 300 million.
WAR since 2015 (Correa's debut) WAR | Bogaerts | Correa
| BRef | 28.2 | 34.1
| Fangraphs | 31.4 | 25.1
| WARP | 24.3 | 21.0
|
Two out of three versions of WAR say that Bogaerts has been better than Correa. Not just within $100 million dollars as good as Correa, better. But why look all the way back to 2015 when Correa was 20? That seems really unfair to him. So let's try again.
Last 3 years WAR
| Bogaerts | Correa | BRef | 12.8
| 12.6
| Fangraphs | 13.9 | 9.7 | WARP | 9.8 | 6.6 |
It's the same story, except now BRef thinks Bogaerts has been as valuable as Correa too. Why? Because he's a more consistent hitter and he's much better at staying on the field. I noticed that nobody has offered any argument as to why Correa is going to suddenly stop getting hurt all the time once he signs a 10-year megadeal. If you have one handy, please share.
Look, I get the defense thing. But Bogaerts has always played below-average defense and Correa has always played above-average defense, and, as the numbers above show, Bogaerts has still produced similar or better value anyway. I just don't think Bogaerts is hemorrhaging wins at SS the way everybody else seems to, nor do I think he'll become an albatross at 2B or 3B if can turn himself into a decent defender there once it gets to that point. (Remember, Bogaerts has played SS because to this point he's been better at defense than most 3B and 2B, who are not good enough to play SS.)
If you think Correa at $300 million is the better bet, fine, that's reasonable. But don't act like it's a math problem the rest of us are too stupid to solve - Bogaerts could easily continue to produce equal or better value than Correa over the next 10 years at 2/3 of the price.
That was past value at Short Stop. Xander is almost 30. He doesn't belong at short stop anymore. Shave a win off those totals every year at least every year. Correa missed one full year in 2019. Went on the IL once in 2018 and 2017. He's been pretty healthy outside of 3 IL stints. Last year he played almost every single game. Xander has been pretty fortunate with health in his career and has been at short stop. Those are 2 things you shouldn't bank on moving forward. He's going to need more time off in his 30's. He's going to be playing a different position unless the Sox are doing something wrong and keeping him there the next 3 years.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 25, 2021 11:00:24 GMT -5
WAR since 2015 (Correa's debut) WAR | Bogaerts | Correa
| BRef | 28.2 | 34.1
| Fangraphs | 31.4 | 25.1
| WARP | 24.3 | 21.0
|
Two out of three versions of WAR say that Bogaerts has been better than Correa. Not just within $100 million dollars as good as Correa, better. But why look all the way back to 2015 when Correa was 20? That seems really unfair to him. So let's try again.
Last 3 years WAR
| Bogaerts | Correa | BRef | 12.8
| 12.6
| Fangraphs | 13.9 | 9.7 | WARP | 9.8 | 6.6 |
It's the same story, except now BRef thinks Bogaerts has been as valuable as Correa too. Why? Because he's a more consistent hitter and he's much better at staying on the field. I noticed that nobody has offered any argument as to why Correa is going to suddenly stop getting hurt all the time once he signs a 10-year megadeal. If you have one handy, please share.
Look, I get the defense thing. But Bogaerts has always played below-average defense and Correa has always played above-average defense, and, as the numbers above show, Bogaerts has still produced similar or better value anyway. I just don't think Bogaerts is hemorrhaging wins at SS the way everybody else seems to, nor do I think he'll become an albatross at 2B or 3B if can turn himself into a decent defender there once it gets to that point. (Remember, Bogaerts has played SS because to this point he's been better at defense than most 3B and 2B, who are not good enough to play SS.)
If you think Correa at $300 million is the better bet, fine, that's reasonable. But don't act like it's a math problem the rest of us are too stupid to solve - Bogaerts could easily continue to produce equal or better value than Correa over the next 10 years at 2/3 of the price.
That was past value at Short Stop. Xander is almost 30. He doesn't belong at short stop anymore. Shave a win off those totals every year at least every year. Correa missed one full year in 2019. Went on the IL once in 2018 and 2017. He's been pretty healthy outside of 3 IL stints. Last year he played almost every single game. Xander has been pretty fortunate with health in his career and has been at short stop. Those are 2 things you shouldn't bank on moving forward. He's going to need more time off in his 30's. He's going to be playing a different position unless the Sox are doing something wrong and keeping him there the next 3 years. Correa has played more than 110 games twice in his entire career. Calling that "pretty healthy" is a wild take.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 25, 2021 12:43:34 GMT -5
That was past value at Short Stop. Xander is almost 30. He doesn't belong at short stop anymore. Shave a win off those totals every year at least every year. Correa missed one full year in 2019. Went on the IL once in 2018 and 2017. He's been pretty healthy outside of 3 IL stints. Last year he played almost every single game. Xander has been pretty fortunate with health in his career and has been at short stop. Those are 2 things you shouldn't bank on moving forward. He's going to need more time off in his 30's. He's going to be playing a different position unless the Sox are doing something wrong and keeping him there the next 3 years. Correa has played more than 110 games twice in his entire career. Calling that "pretty healthy" is a wild take. He's been healthy for 2 straight years now. Yeah recent history shows good health. Unless we are holding shortened 2020 against him? Whatever issues he was going through earlier in his career seems to have been a minor blip. I don't think we've seen the best of Correa yet. Which is good when talking future value.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Nov 25, 2021 19:25:36 GMT -5
Correa has played more than 110 games twice in his entire career. Calling that "pretty healthy" is a wild take. He's been healthy for 2 straight years now. Yeah recent history shows good health. Unless we are holding shortened 2020 against him? Whatever issues he was going through earlier in his career seems to have been a minor blip. I don't think we've seen the best of Correa yet. Which is good when talking future value. When I think of a 300 million + player I think of a guy whose young and talented, yes which Correa is, but I also think of a guy whose shown the ability to stay on the field and be reliable health wise and has a proven track record of top 5 in baseball production. The second two Correa has never shown. We all need to stop thinking of him as the second coming of A-Rod, to this point in his career of 7 seasons he’s hit above .280 once (I get BA on here is akin to bringing up VHS tapes but still), he’s never hit 30hr, he’s never driven in 100 runs. The real question is do you bank on his future value being greater than what he’s shown thus far and how many seasons does it take for a player to show that he’s not going to live up to the immense talent he has; IMO 7 seasons is enough to show me what a player is and stop fantasizing about what he’s going to be, but that may not be the case for everyone and certainly won’t be the thought behind the team that gives him his next contract
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 26, 2021 12:15:27 GMT -5
I am sure teams are struggling with the idea of giving a guy who has not always been able to stay healthy over 300 million dollars. It does seem like all of these top SS guys have a wart or two. For that reason and the fact that they are all out there in FA at the same time makes me think it is going to cost them.
Of course they are all looking at the Lindor deal and have visions of grandeur but I think they are all in for a surprise. There are five of them looking for huge deals and how many teams have the ability and interest on breaking the bank. We shall see but I can see that market turning into a buyers market when it is all said and done. The trepidation surrounding these negotiations for that kind of money has got to be really difficult when looking at the history of similar deals.
Combine that with front offices getting smarter about these deals and I can see none of them getting 30 on a 10 yr contract. Maybe that means the Sox get one of them and save money on a xander extension.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 26, 2021 15:45:47 GMT -5
Tigers and Baez lining up it seems. Makes sense since they don't want to pay 300 million for Correa.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2021 17:29:07 GMT -5
The Mets have signed Eduardo Escobar meaning they're probably out on Baez leaving the Tigers and Sox as most likely to sign him?
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