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Post by bcpatsox18 on Nov 22, 2021 17:44:32 GMT -5
I was curious what everyone’s thoughts on this specific question is. Correa is getting all the hype and is obviously talented, but Story in my opinion is the better player and will come cheaper as well. I included Baez as well due to him being linked to the Red Sox already but I view him as far and away the worst option of the three (though not a bad option)
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Post by jl1947 on Nov 22, 2021 17:58:28 GMT -5
Interesting observation. I don't believe you will find many people who agree that Story is the better player though. I think you could get him at a cheaper price, obviously, and he may be willing to play either of the middle infield positions, third, or even centre field. Not that at the money he'll sign for you're looking for versatility. Story will be payed as a premium shortstop, just below Correa and Seager but above Semien and Baez.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Nov 22, 2021 18:11:26 GMT -5
Interesting observation. I don't believe you will find many people who agree that Story is the better player though. I think you could get him at a cheaper price, obviously, and he may be willing to play either of the middle infield positions, third, or even centre field. Not that at the money he'll sign for you're looking for versatility. Story will be payed as a premium shortstop, just below Correa and Seager but above Semien and Baez. I know most would disagree, but looking solely at WAR, they’re very similar players (Correa 35 in 7 seasons/ Story 27 in 6) and story has the clear edge in versatility, power, and speed, and he will IMO come 50-75million cheaper than Correa will. Correa has higher upside, is younger, and is a better fielder, but his edge in those departments is not equal to the difference in contract he will command IMO
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2021 18:17:33 GMT -5
Interesting observation. I don't believe you will find many people who agree that Story is the better player though. I think you could get him at a cheaper price, obviously, and he may be willing to play either of the middle infield positions, third, or even centre field. Not that at the money he'll sign for you're looking for versatility. Story will be payed as a premium shortstop, just below Correa and Seager but above Semien and Baez. I know most would disagree, but looking solely at WAR, they’re very similar players (Correa 35 in 7 seasons/ Story 27 in 6) and story has the clear edge in versatility, power, and speed, and he will IMO come 50-75million cheaper than Correa will. Correa has higher upside, is younger, and is a better fielder, but his edge in those departments is not equal to the difference in contract he will command IMO Well are you arguing that Story would be a better deal or that he's the better player? If it's the latter then the difference in contract is irrelevant... In any case, they've played almost exactly the same number of games, but Story is 3 years older. Whatever the difference between the two players is now will probably be more to Correa's advantage 2 or 3 years down the road (if it isn't already moving in that direction; Story might already be showing signs of decline).
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Nov 22, 2021 18:24:07 GMT -5
I’m definitely arguing that story is the better deal, and it’s 100% debatable but my opinion is I like story better as a player. I know I’m in the minority but I don’t feel Correa’s stats so far in his career warrant the 300million contract he’ll likely command. You are correct he may warrant that down the line since he is still young but I’m weary of giving that to him based on his performance to date. Also have to mention my bias in that I think he is a clown, but that’s not to take away from him as a player on the field
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 22, 2021 19:27:48 GMT -5
Correa has missed a bunch of time in 2019 and went on the IL in both 2018 and 2017 also.
If healthy, Corrrea is better and has proven he can play at a elite level in the American League. No small thing there.
All in on Correa. I don't think there will be a better free agent at a better age anytime soon.
This all depends if Soto becomes a free agent when his service time is up in Washington, but Washington has a bunch of time to lock him up still.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 22, 2021 19:29:07 GMT -5
The Sox still have that 300 million that they dangled to Mookie and haven't spent on a big contract yet. I hope they do it for Correa.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 22, 2021 19:31:12 GMT -5
I feel that Baez will end up being the best value option. Correa is just too expensive for way too many years, and most importantly I don't like him.
Story has the pedigree to get paid more than Baez, but his 2021 was worrying. His OAA was 4th percentile in 2021, and if we throw out 2020 he has two sub-10th percentile and two over-90th percentile finishes in OAA over the past four seasons. For a guy whose bat has been dipping over the past few seasons, I want to be really sure I can count on the glove. I'm not sure you can with Story. I don't spend my life digging through OAA, mind you, but I've never seen discrepancies like that for a guy who's had a full workload at the same position. If he's just been playing through injuries, though, I rescind this point.
Baez's only real knock is the too-aggressive approach at the plate that leads to a high K% and low BB%. His glove has been consistently excellent, with 92nd percentile being his worst OAA finish from 2017-2020, and with an 82nd percentile in 2021 when he was forced to play a lot of 2B with the Mets. I have a lot of optimism that a clubhouse like Boston's, with guys like JDM and the influence of Alex Cora, will help him clean up his offensive approach. It was a small sample size, but his ~50 games with the Mets were encouraging on that front. Plus, the guy barrels balls at a really high rate for how freely he swings, so a bit more patience could theoretically really help his production. Even if this is just wishful thinking, though, and we get the Javy Baez of old, he should still be good for an awesome glove and some pop with WAR in the 4-5 ballpark (by bWAR he had 6.4, 6.6, and 4.5 in his last three non-2020 seasons). I'll take that every day of the week in the 4/80 ballpark people have been throwing out, especially when the upside is higher if the Sox can keep his momentum from NYM going. If Bogie's willing to move to 2B, I would love to sign Baez. If not, I still would be excited about it, but just not quite as much for 2022.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 22, 2021 19:55:09 GMT -5
I feel that Baez will end up being the best value option. Correa is just too expensive for way too many years, and most importantly I don't like him. Didn't we all hate John Lackey after the Sox beat the Angels in 2008 or something like that and he told the media "Ya I still think we are the better team and the Sox didn't deserve to win" or something along those lines? Lackey went on to become a Sox legend in his 2013 season. Can't hold grudges when it comes to players. Correa is certainly arrogant but it doesn't make him a bad dude. He would be a awesome Red Sox if he came here.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 22, 2021 20:46:07 GMT -5
its TIME for Correa
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 22, 2021 21:14:22 GMT -5
I voted Correa but I don’t think the Red Sox will sign any of them.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 22, 2021 22:25:17 GMT -5
I feel that Baez will end up being the best value option. Correa is just too expensive for way too many years, and most importantly I don't like him. Didn't we all hate John Lackey after the Sox beat the Angels in 2008 or something like that and he told the media "Ya I still think we are the better team and the Sox didn't deserve to win" or something along those lines? Lackey went on to become a Sox legend in his 2013 season. Can't hold grudges when it comes to players. Correa is certainly arrogant but it doesn't make him a bad dude. He would be a awesome Red Sox if he came here. I don't know him as a person and don't wish any ill on him in real life. I don't like his on-field persona, though, and I can't help but hold a grudge for 2017 since the players were not punished and never really expressed remorse. I was against re-hiring Cora as well btw, and he's a likeable guy who was actually punished for his actions and who has expressed sincere remorse. He's also a great manager, and that was clear by the time he was suspended. I just don't want to cheer for people who were involved in something like that. Cora's attitude and remorsefulness makes it easier to forget about it, but I still don't love it.
I didn't remember Lackey saying that, but I also gotta say I don't remember him that fondly - he had a great 2013, but exhibit 1A in my memory is the chicken and beer collapse year in 2011 that he was right in the thick of. I'd rank arrogant and cocky behavior on top of a massive cheating scandal a bit higher on the severity scale lol.
The other thing that I don't like about the idea of signing Correa is that 10/300-350 is just way too rich of a deal to offer pretty much anyone. The risk of injury or decline is just too great, and despite his insane talent Correa has had his fair share of injuries and uneven performance already in his 20s. In order to offset the risk of injury a player needs to be a lock to be absolutely transcendent in the early years of the deal, and I just don't think Correa is a guy I'd bet on for that. I would much rather Baez for ~4 years at 20 million. The upside is lower, but not that much lower (Baez's best season is only .6 bWAR lower than Correa's), and the risk is substantially lower. I think the risk of Baez's bat struggling is a fair bit higher, so it's certainly not a risk-free contract, but he's been more durable than Correa, his glove is similarly excellent, and he also has a reasonable chance of posting offensive numbers well above his career line. Baez also plays a plus 2B and 3B, which would be valuable in 2022 with Bogie still in the mix, and just very nice to have in general, while Correa only plays SS.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 22, 2021 22:28:33 GMT -5
I voted Correa but I don’t think the Red Sox will sign any of them. I hope you're right, but if we do sign one of them, I'm hoping for the cheapest and shortest contract with the best bang for buck. That's Baez imo.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 23, 2021 1:48:20 GMT -5
I like them all but didn’t vote for any of them because I have ZERO desire to replace Xander, the de facto captain of this excellent team. If his time comes to move he will move. Tweak an extension for him (and Devers) so he retires a Red Sox.
This is a winning MLB team, not a fantasy one. And fans DO root for players like Xander. So keep the core. The Sox need to replace Schwarber’s bat (Schwarber would be good for that) and improve the pitching. IMO talk about moving XB for any of the above is just crazy talk.
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Post by gerry on Nov 23, 2021 1:52:52 GMT -5
Yes I know Schwarber is a tough fit until 2023, but a platoon w Dalbec at 1B would be powerful in 2022. I would enjoy Story at 2B or Suzuki in RF as alternatives. Also, injuries happen. But leave XB alone.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 5:00:14 GMT -5
The case for Carlos Correa-
-At age 27. You're getting the best and youngest free agent the next two years. The guy with the most future value. The next best options are Xander Bogaerts (of course) and Trea Turner at age 30 after 2022.
-He's the only player on this market that will probably get Xander to move off short stop in 2022. He's the only guy Xander can look at this free agent class and say "he's a better short stop than me. I should do what's best for the team." You sign Baez, he plays second for a year potentially maybe permanently until Xander is gone (waste).
-You want Xander to be more valuable at a less demanding position than Short Stop. At SS, he's not passable anymore. At second base, he at least has the potential to be that. You should want a more valuable Xander on your team.
-Marcelo Mayer was just drafted out of high school. He's 3 and a half years away if he pushes. He's 5 years away if he doesn't. You need a long-term short stop in the time being.
-Once Mayer is ready (way down the road), he could push Correa to third and Devers to DH. That or Mayer to second and Xander to DH.
-The Sox still have that 300 million dollars (long term) sitting in their pockets that they made to Mookie that they haven't made to anyone else yet. (Sorry to repeat)
-THERE IS A WORLD where you can have Xander, Devers, and Correa long-term in the infield for the Sox. Payroll might have to be moved around. Cheap players like Cassas. Whitlock. Houck. Mata. York (possibly). Make this possible in the future.
-Your pitching staff is immediately improved by the obvious infield defensive upgrade. Now ground ball pitchers like Whitlock and Houck can pitch to their strengths better.
-John Henry is due to make a impact free agent every day player signing in his Boston tenure. The highest position player they have ever paid was Adrian Gonzalez over a decade ago at over 150 million. The David Price contract is the highest in the Henry ERA a half decade ago.
I think he should prove he can sign a big ticket everyday player for a high amount after making a fair (offer) to Mookie but not coming away with the player ultimately.
-If you want to put the best 2022 team possible. I don't see how not including Correa would be the best option. He gets on base. Elite defense. Elite arm. Hits for power. Hits for average. Good baserunner. Big time hitter in key moments. Complete package.
-Lastly, questionable market. Dodgers and Yankees are already out on Correa. That's the two biggest threats the Sox ever have to face in free agency. They're already out.
There could be a surprise team, but the Sox are definitely in this hunt. This race to get Correa feels different. Bloom has already mentioned how well the team is positioned to sign a high profiled free agent.
He's already said how he's definitely in the middle infield market.
The less I hear about Correa from this Sox front office, the more I think he has a chance to come here. That's how this front office works.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2021 7:16:49 GMT -5
I dont understand your point that Henry is "due to make a big free agent splash". As you point out the 2 biggest contracts given out with him as owner were far less than the projected 300+ mil Correa is going to get. To me that says if history tells us anything he's not going to give that type of deal out. Why should he "prove he can give a deal like that out"? We all know he could do that if he wanted to. It's not a question of money when they consistently have one of the top 5 payrolls. He has four titles under his tenure as owner by not doing that so why would he start now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 23, 2021 7:41:31 GMT -5
Where's the none of the above box ?
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Post by jdb on Nov 23, 2021 8:14:21 GMT -5
Out of the three I went Baez. I want to sign Devers and X long term and I don’t think 5-8 years from now we want $100 million tied up in 3 infielders. Baez will improve the infield D tremendously and adds 25-30 HR pop. He’s essentially Renfroe at a premium position. If you can get him on a 4 year deal I’d be happy with him at SS. I do think if he’s signed Renfroe is gone and we find a higher OBA in the OF somehow.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 8:45:13 GMT -5
Out of the three I went Baez. I want to sign Devers and X long term and I don’t think 5-8 years from now we want $100 million tied up in 3 infielders. Baez will improve the infield D tremendously and adds 25-30 HR pop. He’s essentially Renfroe at a premium position. If you can get him on a 4 year deal I’d be happy with him at SS. I do think if he’s signed Renfroe is gone and we find a higher OBA in the OF somehow. This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2021 8:55:11 GMT -5
Out of the three I went Baez. I want to sign Devers and X long term and I don’t think 5-8 years from now we want $100 million tied up in 3 infielders. Baez will improve the infield D tremendously and adds 25-30 HR pop. He’s essentially Renfroe at a premium position. If you can get him on a 4 year deal I’d be happy with him at SS. I do think if he’s signed Renfroe is gone and we find a higher OBA in the OF somehow. This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint. I think the possibility of large changes to CBA are hanging over the teams heads too. If I were a GM I would just wait to see what happens with that and what the rules look like to see if there are any big changes. I certainly wouldn't be chomping at the bit to sign a mega deal.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 8:58:05 GMT -5
I dont understand your point that Henry is "due to make a big free agent splash". As you point out the 2 biggest contracts given out with him as owner were far less than the projected 300+ mil Correa is going to get. To me that says if history tells us anything he's not going to give that type of deal out. Why should he "prove he can give a deal like that out"? We all know he could do that if he wanted to. It's not a question of money when they consistently have one of the top 5 payrolls. He has four titles under his tenure as owner by not doing that so why would he start now. It has always been a question of Henry. Will he ever complete a deal of a everyday big time free agent starting player in this league? That's the question. Not a expanded thought of how much money he spends. Separate thing. He's never wanted to in the past. Mookie was the first time he actually tried and fell way short.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 23, 2021 8:59:51 GMT -5
Out of the three I went Baez. I want to sign Devers and X long term and I don’t think 5-8 years from now we want $100 million tied up in 3 infielders. Baez will improve the infield D tremendously and adds 25-30 HR pop. He’s essentially Renfroe at a premium position. If you can get him on a 4 year deal I’d be happy with him at SS. I do think if he’s signed Renfroe is gone and we find a higher OBA in the OF somehow. This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint. Baez has just as much interest and is just as likely to get 150 million plus. There is potentially is no bargain there. In fact, the Correa case gets pushed even more as Baez gets more overvalued.
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Post by fanofredsox on Nov 23, 2021 9:10:39 GMT -5
Where's the none of the above box ? I didnt vote but,That's where I would of placed my vote
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2021 9:17:16 GMT -5
I dont understand your point that Henry is "due to make a big free agent splash". As you point out the 2 biggest contracts given out with him as owner were far less than the projected 300+ mil Correa is going to get. To me that says if history tells us anything he's not going to give that type of deal out. Why should he "prove he can give a deal like that out"? We all know he could do that if he wanted to. It's not a question of money when they consistently have one of the top 5 payrolls. He has four titles under his tenure as owner by not doing that so why would he start now. It has always been a question of Henry. Will he ever complete a deal of a everyday big time free agent starting player in this league? That's the question. Not a expanded thought of how much money he spends. Separate thing. He's never wanted to in the past. Mookie was the first time he actually tried and fell way short. Maybe that's a question for you. It isn't for me. I don't care if he has "any position player super free agents" as his track record of four world series in less than 20 years is more than fine for me. Like I said he's obviously more than capable of signing one if he thought that was the best avenue to put a winner out there. It's not like he's making Bloom run the team like the Rays. The payroll is always amongst the tops in the league.
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