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Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 22:06:34 GMT -5
I wouldn’t even consider Wacha a #5 unless he miraculously develops a legit 3rd pitch. He’s not so much an “innings eater” as a near guaranteed early exit from every game he starts. May be better as a 2-inning middle reliever. If that. Well, he was second on the Rays in innings last year and made 23 starts. It'll all come down to performance, of course. As we've seen with Houck, it's still super valuable to have a good starting pitcher that doesn't go deep in games. Going deep in games is great, but so is being effective while you're out there.
It's not really clear what Wacha will end up being, but he could easily end up in a long relief / SP depth bullpen role if Houck or Whitlock seizes a rotation spot. It depends a lot on how legit his last ~40 innings were. Too two of your points from different replies: 1) Paxton is 33 years old. I’m not that stoked about the idea of investing in his 23/24 seasons. 2) Hence, the risk is you pay $10 million for nothing (cf. Richards, Garrett). 3) Wacha led the Rays in innings. He also sucked, and they let him walk. I’m not convinced he is much more than a more expensive Andriese.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 22:13:59 GMT -5
Don't know the $ yet (although it won't matter much if we go over the LT, which we should), but I'm a big fan of this signing! I finally feel like we're in a good place with our SP depth. Tentatively we have this: 1. Sale 2. Eovaldi 3. Pivetta 4. Hill 5. Wacha But this is with Whitlock and Houck still in the bullpen, Winckowski and Seabold in Worcester as depth, and with Paxton able to help down the stretch if his recovery goes smoothly. If any of the guys in the rotation falter, we could easily see them in the 2021 Richards role with Houck or Whitlock advanced into the rotation. That might happen anyway tbh, given the upside of Houck and Whitlock. I'd still like to see us add a couple of bullpen arms, but I'd feel alright entering 2022 with this rotation. I’m with you! Does this mean Whitlock is the closer!? I love that idea!!!! I'd rather see Pivetta as the closer and a Houck/Whitlock piggyback at one spot to start the year -- either one guy takes it and runs with it or maybe even both earn their own spot if one of the other guys develops a blister or something.
I just think you stunt Whitlock's development if keep him in the bullpen too long and I like his upside as a starter better than Pivetta's (despite the handful of really good starts NP had last year -- the way he gets fired up makes me think closer though).
Anyway, glad to exhale a little with Hill adding to the starting depth. I still wouldn't mind seeing more come in, like Rodon or an innings eater like Anderson. You can never have too much starting pitching.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Dec 1, 2021 22:23:48 GMT -5
3) Wacha led the Rays in innings. He also sucked, and they let him walk. I’m not convinced he is much more than a more expensive Andriese.
Could have said the same thing about Renfroe last winter. The Sox probably saw the same thing in him the Rays did but couldn't harness it. Maybe Bloom thinks his coaching staff can find it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 1, 2021 22:25:36 GMT -5
Who had 'Rich Hill, Daniel Bard and Jed Lowrie' as the 3 remaining MLB players from that game?
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2021 22:29:07 GMT -5
It is eminently clear that this front office is looking for upside on a per-inning basis (even if it comes with risk) from its starting pitchers rather than high-floor, bulk innings types. It's a very 2021 approach to building a pitching staff.
Still would have preferred Rodriguez, but once that option walked out the door, this route made a lot of sense.
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 1, 2021 22:39:02 GMT -5
Who had 'Rich Hill, Daniel Bard and Jed Lowrie' as the 3 remaining MLB players from that game? Kevin Cash catching Rich Hill and Daniel Bard is pretty neat
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 23:05:48 GMT -5
I’m with you! Does this mean Whitlock is the closer!? I love that idea!!!! I could totally see it! I could see him starting too given how filthy he is, and I'm honestly fine with either. It's a good feeling knowing we have the flexibility to use him where we think he'll be most effective rather than having to force him into the rotation. What on earth is this enthusiasm for squandering Whitlock in a 60 IP role when he has starter's stuff and has already shown the capacity for multi-inning stints? He could easily give the team 100+ IP if they don't waste him on 3-run 9th inning leads.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 1, 2021 23:17:20 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 0:10:28 GMT -5
So $22 million for Hill, Wacha, and Paxton. Last year about $15 million for Richards, Andriese, and Perez.
That is a 2-year $38 million contract collectively. Are there any starters we could get with that foundation that would be a better investment?
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:18:43 GMT -5
Well, he was second on the Rays in innings last year and made 23 starts. It'll all come down to performance, of course. As we've seen with Houck, it's still super valuable to have a good starting pitcher that doesn't go deep in games. Going deep in games is great, but so is being effective while you're out there.
It's not really clear what Wacha will end up being, but he could easily end up in a long relief / SP depth bullpen role if Houck or Whitlock seizes a rotation spot. It depends a lot on how legit his last ~40 innings were. Too two of your points from different replies: 1) Paxton is 33 years old. I’m not that stoked about the idea of investing in his 23/24 seasons. 2) Hence, the risk is you pay $10 million for nothing (cf. Richards, Garrett). 3) Wacha led the Rays in innings. He also sucked, and they let him walk. I’m not convinced he is much more than a more expensive Andriese. Paxton is good enough that even with a bit of normal regression he'd still be a useful starter, especially at 2/25; it's all about the TJ recovery for me. The $10 million this year doesn't matter to anything other than John Henry's wallet if we're already planning to go over the tax threshold.
TBD on Wacha, but as folks have discussed on here he looked good at the end of the season after he ditched his cutter, one bad outing against Boston nonwithstanding. We'll see what we get, but again, a one year deal in a year we're going over the LT doesn't really matter. Even if he bombs it won't affect anything in 2023.
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Post by keninten on Dec 2, 2021 0:23:22 GMT -5
He`s only $6 mil this year
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:24:43 GMT -5
I’m with you! Does this mean Whitlock is the closer!? I love that idea!!!! I'd rather see Pivetta as the closer and a Houck/Whitlock piggyback at one spot to start the year -- either one guy takes it and runs with it or maybe even both earn their own spot if one of the other guys develops a blister or something.
I just think you stunt Whitlock's development if keep him in the bullpen too long and I like his upside as a starter better than Pivetta's (despite the handful of really good starts NP had last year -- the way he gets fired up makes me think closer though).
Anyway, glad to exhale a little with Hill adding to the starting depth. I still wouldn't mind seeing more come in, like Rodon or an innings eater like Anderson. You can never have too much starting pitching.
I think Pivetta's too good not to be in the rotation personally, unless the rotation really takes a step forward. He's inconsistent, but when he's on he's money, and I'm not in a hurry to part with a 3.84 xERA over 30 starts and 155 IP. I hear you on Whitlock, though, and I have no doubt that he'll get a chance to earn a spot in the rotation. Having a bunch of SPs on the roster definitely doesn't mean they can't start in the bullpen. I could also see some sort of opener / follower machinations with a guy like Houck.
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 0:25:26 GMT -5
Too two of your points from different replies: 1) Paxton is 33 years old. I’m not that stoked about the idea of investing in his 23/24 seasons. 2) Hence, the risk is you pay $10 million for nothing (cf. Richards, Garrett). 3) Wacha led the Rays in innings. He also sucked, and they let him walk. I’m not convinced he is much more than a more expensive Andriese. Paxton is good enough that even with a bit of normal regression he'd still be a useful starter, especially at 2/25; it's all about the TJ recovery for me. The $10 million this year doesn't matter to anything other than John Henry's wallet if we're already planning to go over the tax threshold.
TBD on Wacha, but as folks have discussed on here he looked good at the end of the season after he ditched his cutter, one bad outing against Boston nonwithstanding. We'll see what we get, but again, a one year deal in a year we're going over the LT doesn't really matter. Even if he bombs it won't affect anything in 2023.
I don’t get how these things “don’t matter” this year. If these guys are not good, then it hurts the Sox’ season. So when you say “won’t affect anything in 2023” you seem to be prepared to toss another year. Then going into ‘23, they are down Eovaldi (or paying him much more).
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:28:41 GMT -5
I could totally see it! I could see him starting too given how filthy he is, and I'm honestly fine with either. It's a good feeling knowing we have the flexibility to use him where we think he'll be most effective rather than having to force him into the rotation. What on earth is this enthusiasm for squandering Whitlock in a 60 IP role when he has starter's stuff and has already shown the capacity for multi-inning stints? He could easily give the team 100+ IP if they don't waste him on 3-run 9th inning leads. It all depends on his performance. Obviously he'll get a chance to joust for a rotation spot, and if he seizes it, all the better! If not, though, he's proven he can be deadly in a late inning role, so I would be happy with a reprise. I feel the exact same way about Houck; he's filthy no matter where he's pitching, so wherever the chips fall I'm happy.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 2, 2021 0:31:20 GMT -5
What on earth is this enthusiasm for squandering Whitlock in a 60 IP role when he has starter's stuff and has already shown the capacity for multi-inning stints? He could easily give the team 100+ IP if they don't waste him on 3-run 9th inning leads. It all depends on his performance. Obviously he'll get a chance to joust for a rotation spot, and if he seizes it, all the better! If not, though, he's proven he can be deadly in a late inning role, so I would be happy with a reprise. I feel the exact same way about Houck; he's filthy no matter where he's pitching, so wherever the chips fall I'm happy. I will be unhappy if two of our best pitchers combine for only 120 IP.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:32:38 GMT -5
Paxton is good enough that even with a bit of normal regression he'd still be a useful starter, especially at 2/25; it's all about the TJ recovery for me. The $10 million this year doesn't matter to anything other than John Henry's wallet if we're already planning to go over the tax threshold.
TBD on Wacha, but as folks have discussed on here he looked good at the end of the season after he ditched his cutter, one bad outing against Boston nonwithstanding. We'll see what we get, but again, a one year deal in a year we're going over the LT doesn't really matter. Even if he bombs it won't affect anything in 2023.
I don’t get how these things “don’t matter” this year. If these guys are not good, then it hurts the Sox’ season. So when you say “won’t affect anything in 2023” you seem to be prepared to toss another year. Then going into ‘23, they are down Eovaldi (or paying him much more). If Paxton is not playing, how is his $10 million negatively affecting the team? If Wacha is atrocious, yes, it could hurt the team a little in the short term. The benefit of having good SP depth, though, is you're not forced to roll with him if he's awful. You just reshuffle the rotation, move him to a long role in the pen, and let him eat some innings there when the game's not on the line. Without depth, you end up in a 2021 Danny Santana situation.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:37:20 GMT -5
It all depends on his performance. Obviously he'll get a chance to joust for a rotation spot, and if he seizes it, all the better! If not, though, he's proven he can be deadly in a late inning role, so I would be happy with a reprise. I feel the exact same way about Houck; he's filthy no matter where he's pitching, so wherever the chips fall I'm happy. I will be unhappy if two of our best pitchers combine for only 120 IP. That's fine, but at the end of the day they're going to pitch in whichever role they're best suited for. If that's bullpen in 2022, oh well; better than forcing them to start if they're not able to perform. I have some optimism that they will be able to stick in the rotation, but there's a reason no one felt good about banking on one or both of them to start going into 2022. They may not do enough to stick, and there's also the question of how much of a workload they're ready to take on given that neither racked up that many innings last year.
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 0:38:14 GMT -5
I don’t get how these things “don’t matter” this year. If these guys are not good, then it hurts the Sox’ season. So when you say “won’t affect anything in 2023” you seem to be prepared to toss another year. Then going into ‘23, they are down Eovaldi (or paying him much more). If Paxton is not playing, how is his $10 million negatively affecting the team? If Wacha is atrocious, yes, it could hurt the team a little in the short term. The benefit of having good SP depth, though, is you're not forced to roll with him if he's awful. You just reshuffle the rotation, move him to a long role in the pen, and let him eat some innings there when the game's not on the line. Without depth, you end up in a 2021 Danny Santana situation. It hurts because they could have used it on a guy not coming back from TJ? Or used it as half of ERod’s first year.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 0:43:25 GMT -5
If Paxton is not playing, how is his $10 million negatively affecting the team? If Wacha is atrocious, yes, it could hurt the team a little in the short term. The benefit of having good SP depth, though, is you're not forced to roll with him if he's awful. You just reshuffle the rotation, move him to a long role in the pen, and let him eat some innings there when the game's not on the line. Without depth, you end up in a 2021 Danny Santana situation. It hurts because they could have used it on a guy not coming back from TJ? Or used it as half of ERod’s first year. But there's no real limit to how much you spend if you're already going over the LT. As far as I know if you go over by a ton there are some draft penalties, but other than that it's just up to John Henry. Maybe he draws a line in the sand at a certain payroll number and a deal like this prevents the Sox from bringing in someone else who would help the team, but in practice I doubt it, especially since I'm hearing the Paxton deal is actually only $6 million for 2022.
FWIW I would have loved to have Erod back at 5/77, but alas.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 2, 2021 0:45:54 GMT -5
I will be unhappy if two of our best pitchers combine for only 120 IP. That's fine, but at the end of the day they're going to pitch in whichever role they're best suited for. If that's bullpen in 2022, oh well; better than forcing them to start if they're not able to perform. I have some optimism that they will be able to stick in the rotation, but there's a reason no one felt good about banking on one or both of them to start going into 2022. They may not do enough to stick, and there's also the question of how much of a workload they're ready to take on given that neither racked up that many innings last year. One thing I like to do is listen to what Chaim Bloom says about his plans for the team, and one thing he has said is that some pitchers don't fit into either the starter or 1 IP bullpen role. Both Houck and Whitlock have already been used in 2-/3-inning roles, and I'm okay with letting them continue to do that, and starting if/when needed, or if/when their performance demands it. I think they can combine for ~250 IP one way or another.
What I would not be okay with is wedging them into 1 IP relief roles, which is a waste of both of their talents.
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 0:46:40 GMT -5
It hurts because they could have used it on a guy not coming back from TJ? Or used it as half of ERod’s first year. But there's no real limit to how much you spend if you're already going over the LT. As far as I know if you go over by a ton there are some draft penalties, but other than that it's just up to John Henry. Maybe he draws a line in the sand at a certain payroll number and a deal like this prevents the Sox from bringing in someone else who would help the team, but in practice I doubt it, especially since I'm hearing the Paxton deal is actually only $6 million for 2022.
FWIW I would have loved to have Erod back at 5/77, but alas.
That’s fine, but the plan does not appear to be to spend a lot on a single guy. If they did this and then signed Scherzer, great. But… the best we can expect now is Rodon, I guess. I’m not saying it won’t work. I’m saying it didn’t work last year, and if it doesn’t work again, it’ll be frustrating.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 1:08:07 GMT -5
That's fine, but at the end of the day they're going to pitch in whichever role they're best suited for. If that's bullpen in 2022, oh well; better than forcing them to start if they're not able to perform. I have some optimism that they will be able to stick in the rotation, but there's a reason no one felt good about banking on one or both of them to start going into 2022. They may not do enough to stick, and there's also the question of how much of a workload they're ready to take on given that neither racked up that many innings last year. One thing I like to do is listen to what Chaim Bloom says about his plans for the team, and one thing he has said is that some pitchers don't fit into either the starter or 1 IP bullpen role. Both Houck and Whitlock have already been used in 2-/3-inning roles, and I'm okay with letting them continue to do that, and starting if/when needed, or if/when their performance demands it. I think they can combine for ~250 IP one way or another.
What I would not be okay with is wedging them into 1 IP relief roles, which is a waste of both of their talents.
I agree with that, for sure. As a "closer" I wasn't assume a traditional closer's role, though. I'd assume something more similar to what he did in the playoffs last year, where he's the pitcher getting the most important outs in the game. Could be innings 6-8, could be 8-9, could be the classic 9. Whatever the situation calls for.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 2, 2021 1:17:50 GMT -5
But there's no real limit to how much you spend if you're already going over the LT. As far as I know if you go over by a ton there are some draft penalties, but other than that it's just up to John Henry. Maybe he draws a line in the sand at a certain payroll number and a deal like this prevents the Sox from bringing in someone else who would help the team, but in practice I doubt it, especially since I'm hearing the Paxton deal is actually only $6 million for 2022.
FWIW I would have loved to have Erod back at 5/77, but alas.
Thatâs fine, but the plan does not appear to be to spend a lot on a single guy. If they did this and then signed Scherzer, great. But⦠the best we can expect now is Rodon, I guess. Iâm not saying it wonât work. Iâm saying it didnât work last year, and if it doesnât work again, itâll be frustrating. Idk, last year we made the ALCS in a year we were supposed to be a .500ish rebuilding team, and I give Bloom's acquisitions a lot of credit for that. You can point to guys like Perez and Richards that weren't good, but there were also guys like Renfroe and Hernandez who were really valuable. Not every one of these guys is going to hit, but they also don't have to. Last year we had Whitlock with 3 WAR making league minimum out of rule 5, Kiké with 5 WAR on a 2/14 deal, Renfroe with 2-2.5 WAR making 3.1 million, Pivetta putting up 2.5 WAR while making peanuts in his first full season in town, etc.. These pickups were plenty to offset the rough deals, like Richards with ~.5 WAR for 10 million or Marwin with ~-0.7 for 3 million.
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 1:22:00 GMT -5
Thatâs fine, but the plan does not appear to be to spend a lot on a single guy. If they did this and then signed Scherzer, great. But⦠the best we can expect now is Rodon, I guess. Iâm not saying it wonât work. Iâm saying it didnât work last year, and if it doesnât work again, itâll be frustrating. Idk, last year we made the ALCS in a year we were supposed to be a .500ish rebuilding team, and I give Bloom's acquisitions a lot of credit for that. You can point to guys like Perez and Richards that weren't good, but there were also guys like Renfroe and Hernandez who were really valuable. Not every one of these guys is going to hit, but they also don't have to. Last year we had Whitlock with 3 WAR making league minimum out of rule 5, Kiké with 5 WAR on a 2/14 deal, Renfroe with 2-2.5 WAR making 3.1 million, Pivetta putting up 2.5 WAR while making peanuts in his first full season in town, etc.. These pickups were plenty to offset the rough deals, like Richards with ~.5 WAR for 10 million or Marwin with ~-0.7 for 3 million. I’m only talking about the pitching. The FAs last year did not help. The gather-lots-of-lottery-ticket plan failed. This year has higher upside but clear risk as well. If it doesn’t work, can we at least agree they will need to get a real pitcher in Eovaldi’s slot next off season, not a retread?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2021 1:24:29 GMT -5
So $22 million for Hill, Wacha, and Paxton. Last year about $15 million for Richards, Andriese, and Perez. That is a 2-year $38 million contract collectively. Are there any starters we could get with that foundation that would be a better investment? I think the more apt comparison is E-Rod, Richards, and Perez combining for about 22.5 million last season versus their replacements of Hill, Paxton, and Wacha combining for 18 million with the max being 21 million if Hill makes it to 160 IP. That's basically "the trade" the Sox made this year. In the first scenario you had the safest bet pitcher and two guys that were pretty terrible. In the second scenario you have 3 major question marks, two of which, if they pitched to their track records, would pitch well. I'd take the more sure thing in E-Rod if that were a choice anymore, but it's not. But I wanted to take Andriese out of the equation because all he was last year was a long man out of the pen. I'm sure they'll find oune of those in free agency once the freeze is over. I think the larger point is that the Sox tried to "deepen" their starting pitching corps for the same money as last year, all while starting pitching prices have gone through the roof. I'd like to see them get Rodon, but unless he comes with a major discount I don't see it happening. They'll spend the rest of their free agency pitching money on relief pitching. They have to replace Robles and Ottavino, preferably with somebody who can close.
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