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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 2, 2021 6:34:07 GMT -5
I'm not surprised they dealt renfroe, I see him as a serious regression candidate but I wouldn't exactly call this selling high. I'm hoping jbj might regress back to the mean and hit closer to his career numbers, or he might just be completely cooked with the bat. The two prospects add some more depth to the farm/trade chips. I'm guessing they'll acquire more of an everyday outfielder type whenever the lockout is up, if not I hate the idea of playing JBJ nearly everyday.
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 2, 2021 6:36:19 GMT -5
I guess Bloom must really like the prospects he got? Could JBJ just be waived/DFAd? Would Bloom eat that much $$? Can’t imagine JBJ has much trade value in flip to a team seeking a CF/4th OF (Philly?), maybe if Bloom eats some of the money owed? I think Bloom isn’t done trading. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him acquire more over paid players & buy prospects. It actually might be the best way to spend the money. I have to rate this incomplete for now and that bites the big one with a lockout in place. It’s a Bloom cliffhanger
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 2, 2021 6:49:54 GMT -5
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 2, 2021 7:34:22 GMT -5
From the bottom of my heart. What. The. F***?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2021 7:38:30 GMT -5
I guess Bloom must really like the prospects he got? Could JBJ just be waived/DFAd? Would Bloom eat that much $$? Can’t imagine JBJ has much trade value in flip to a team seeking a CF/4th OF (Philly?), maybe if Bloom eats some of the money owed? I think Bloom isn’t done trading. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him acquire more over paid players & buy prospects. It actually might be the best way to spend the money. I have to rate this incomplete for now and that bites the big one with a lockout in place. It’s a Bloom cliffhanger Why would Bloom waive JBJ? He has to pay for him anyways. Might as well utilize the one thing that JBJ brings to the table - excellent defense (I'd say elite but I didn't see him last season). It's not like the Sox couldn't use a defensive CF off the bench (hope it's off the bench). Bloom made it a point about getting a "true CF". Last season when Hernandez wasn't in CF, their defense in CF was terrible, so they couldn't utilize Hernandez at 2b like they really wanted to. That was obvious to Bloom and obvious to all of us. They didn't have anybody capable of playing CF other than Hernandez. He also made the point about the need for two CF at Fenway, which makes sense as we remember JBJ in CF and Betts in RF. We know Renfroe didn't have the kind of range you'd dream about, just an irresponsible howitzer for an arm. So I hope the idea isn't to play both JBJ and Hernandez side by side, but rather have JBJ come off the bench. Either way, he's not being waived. JBJ will be a member of the 2022 Red Sox. Just hopefully not a starting member of the team.
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Post by jdb on Dec 2, 2021 7:54:20 GMT -5
I don’t mind it. I’m anxious to see where the prospects are rated once updated rankings come out. Wasn’t the kid from Louisville considered a top 10-15 pick this time last year? Seems they each have some upside and JBJ will likely be the 4th OFer. There’s another shoe to drop for sure.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 2, 2021 7:57:05 GMT -5
So the Sox just signed JBJ to a 2 year $21 million contract. Or, if he stinks, to a 2 year $16.5 deal. Or, if he's great, a 1 year $9.5 million deal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2021 8:04:41 GMT -5
Does this mean we got Suzuki? Add: ok for real this time emergency podcast? I'mma try, but work is brutal this week.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 2, 2021 8:15:14 GMT -5
The more I read about Binelas the more I like him.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 2, 2021 8:16:50 GMT -5
Hamilton hit .293/.453/.463 in 14 AFL games.
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Post by juanpena on Dec 2, 2021 8:17:53 GMT -5
I hope the lockout doesn't lead to an abbreviated spring training. If there is a full ST, I tell Duran, "watch everything JBJ does in the field and pick his brain as much as you can."
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2021 8:26:28 GMT -5
Sell high, buy low, pick up a few prospects you like. It’s unconventional, but that’s Bloom’s MO at this point (and we shouldn’t forget that going forward). I do wonder if there’s a little too much “smartest guy in the room” vibe. They’ve spent a lot of money on high-risk players this offseason. Now, with enough bets, you hope to have diversified and spread out your risk, but it’s still a high-risk strategy.
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 2, 2021 8:26:34 GMT -5
JBJ shouldn’t be counted on as being a starting OF. He should be the 4th OF and also gives them a left-handed bat off the bench. If he starts the year in the outfield then I don’t like the trade. I still think that Suzuki or Schwarber or a COF of that caliber will start the season in the outfield along with Verdugo.
As for Renfroe, Bloom is banking on his career year not being repeated again which seams logical. If Renfroe turns back into a pumpkin, this trade looks better on Bloom too.
As for the prospects, I like them. Hamilton is a low ceiling, high floor guy that can be a utility player with speed in the majors. He is probably a bench option in 2023. Binelas is intriguing with his ceiling. Was a really highly regarded prospect before the draft. He broke his hamate bone in 2020 and struggled initially in 2021. The early season struggles contributed to his fall in the draft, but I wonder if they were largely due to getting back into the swing of things and coming back from an injury. IIRC hamate injuries don’t have the shortest rehab time and can really sap a power hitter for a bit. If he’s the player that he looked like in his pro debut, then he could be a really good prospect.
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Post by alan on Dec 2, 2021 8:33:29 GMT -5
A few things I learned from this trade: 1. Sox clearly don't care about the Tax 2. With all the pitchers they were signing (low GB% higher FB%), they wanted a truly elite outfield defense. Renfroe has a cannon of an arm, but he's bad in nearly every other defensive metrics. 3. I think they are going to sign another outfielder alongside Schwarber. Hopefully, it's Seiya Suzuki. 4. This isn't just for this trade, but for all the other moves as well: Bloom's front office is basically a secret chamber, nothing is leaking out of there, every move was a surprise. Maybe there's a reason there were so little Schwarber and Suzuki news before the lockout (fingers crossed)
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 2, 2021 8:41:39 GMT -5
A few things I learned from this trade: 1. Sox clearly don't care about the Tax 2. With all the pitchers they were signing (low GB% higher FB%), they wanted a truly elite outfield defense. Renfroe has a cannon of an arm, but he's bad in nearly every other defensive metrics. 3. I think they are going to sign another outfielder alongside Schwarber. Hopefully, it's Seiya Suzuki. 4. This isn't just for this trade, but for all the other moves as well: Bloom's front office is basically a secret chamber, nothing is leaking out of there, every move was a surprise. Maybe there's a reason there were so little Schwarber and Suzuki news before the lockout (fingers crossed) To your first point. They better not care about the tax as they've already spent almost 30 million dollars when you add this extra $ from jbj vs renfroe to wacha/hill/Paxton. They also are probably worse on both sides of the ball from the end of season roster as of right now. Hopefully they have another 30-40 mil to spend to fill their remaining holes.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 2, 2021 8:47:33 GMT -5
Sell high, buy low, pick up a few prospects you like. It’s unconventional, but that’s Bloom’s MO at this point (and we shouldn’t forget that going forward). I do wonder if there’s a little too much “smartest guy in the room” vibe. They’ve spent a lot of money on high-risk players this offseason. Now, with enough bets, you hope to have diversified and spread out your risk, but it’s still a high-risk strategy. If only this were like the stock market, where JBJ doesn't need to do better than Renfroe, he just needs to do better than he did previously in order to gain value. Unfortunately a player going from a .497 OPS to say a .600 OPS does not give us a gain of .103, we're still stuck with a player with a .600 OPS. Not that anyone, much less Bloom, thinks this way, but that'd be the only way I'd like this trade. I can see Renfroe regressing and Bradley improving but this trade doesn't necessarily look good unless they both cross, and even then it comes down to the cost. Oh well.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 2, 2021 8:52:27 GMT -5
Sell high, buy low, pick up a few prospects you like. It’s unconventional, but that’s Bloom’s MO at this point (and we shouldn’t forget that going forward). I do wonder if there’s a little too much “smartest guy in the room” vibe. They’ve spent a lot of money on high-risk players this offseason. Now, with enough bets, you hope to have diversified and spread out your risk, but it’s still a high-risk strategy. If only this were like the stock market, where JBJ doesn't need to do better than Renfroe, he just needs to do better than he did previously in order to gain value. Unfortunately a player going from a .497 OPS to say a .600 OPS does not give us a gain of .103, we're still stuck with a player with a .600 OPS. Not that anyone, much less Bloom, thinks this way, but that'd be the only way I'd like this trade. I can see Renfroe regressing and Bradley improving but this trade doesn't necessarily look good unless they both cross, and even then it comes down to the cost. Oh well. In the short term yes but binelas is an intriguing prospect and the other guy may make for a decent utility guy down the line providing value. This trade will be hard to gauge until we know if those two prospect lottery tickets amount to anything. To be honest they won't have to amount to much more than maybe a combined couple seasons of 1 WAR to turn this into a good deal.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 2, 2021 8:53:36 GMT -5
From the first post of the 2021 draft thread, June 17, 2020
Who is ready for the 2021 MLB draft? Maybe too soon, but regardless, here's a link to Kiley McDaniel's way-too-early 2021 mlb draft rankings via ESPN. I won't give away too much behind the paywall, but here's the top 10 from these rankings:
1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt, 50 FV 2. Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA), 45+ FV 3. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt, 45 FV 4. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU, 45 FV 5. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida, 45 FV 6. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX), 45 FV 7. Luke Leto, SS, Portage Central HS (MI), 45 FV 8. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville, 45 FV 9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami, 45 FV 10. Ethan Wilson, LF, South Alabama, 45 FV
Sep 24, 2020 at 12:10am via mobile tjb21 likes thisPost OptionsPost by tyler3 on Sep 24, 2020 at 12:10am Here’s Callis mock 10:
1. Pirates: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Rangers: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida 3. Red Sox: Jordan Lawlor, SS, Jesuit College Prep (Dallas) 4. Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 5. Royals: Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami 6. Tigers: Jaden Hill, RHP, Louisiana State 7. Orioles: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Nationals: Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia 9. Mariners: Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville 10. Rockies: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.)
Dec 14, 2020 at 9:16pm ortiz34 likes thisPost OptionsPost by vermontsox1 on Dec 14, 2020 at 9:16pm MLB Pipeline released their initial Top 100 list. The top ten is:
1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (TX) 3. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 4. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami 5. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU 6. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) 8. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida 9. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville 10. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Mar 9, 2021 at 6:16pm Post OptionsPost by ramireja on Mar 9, 2021 at 6:16pm From Fangraphs most recent scouting notes:
Eric and I have talked about this subject in this space and elsewhere, but the college hitter group for the 2021 draft is developing into an especially challenging one for scouting departments. Much of that is because with both an exceptionally short 2020 season and no Cape Cod League, it was hard to line up boards heading into the year. Some of the best freshmen from 2019 became the best draft-eligible bats heading into the year almost by default, and many have disappointed. Take a look at this quartet, all of whom entered the season as potential top-half of the first round picks.
Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville: Seen as a third baseman who can hit and hit for power, Binelas finally got the bat going a bit over the weekend, with knocks in each of his three games, but his 11-game season line is still a shockingly miserable .130/.226/.217 without a home run. One is forced to wonder if last spring’s hamate injury is bothering him, but he’s dropped both in the Cardinals’ lineup and on draft boards.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 2, 2021 8:58:43 GMT -5
Guys, JBJ did not just displace Kiké as the team's starting CFer. This is this year's Ottavino - an overpriced contract Bloom takes on to buy prospects. JBJ is the 4th outfielder. I think it means they're probably adding Schwarber to replace Renfroe (with Verdugo to RF), but it could be someone else. This move makes zero sense for a contender. The Sox making this move as a last place team I totally get. But you just traded one your best hitters and elite outfielder for someone who plays elite defense and hit .163 last year. Unless they're trying to stack Boras clients to make Xander feel good this is a mistake for 2022. Hunter Renfroe does not play elite defense.
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Post by alan on Dec 2, 2021 9:00:18 GMT -5
A few things I learned from this trade: 1. Sox clearly don't care about the Tax 2. With all the pitchers they were signing (low GB% higher FB%), they wanted a truly elite outfield defense. Renfroe has a cannon of an arm, but he's bad in nearly every other defensive metrics. 3. I think they are going to sign another outfielder alongside Schwarber. Hopefully, it's Seiya Suzuki. 4. This isn't just for this trade, but for all the other moves as well: Bloom's front office is basically a secret chamber, nothing is leaking out of there, every move was a surprise. Maybe there's a reason there were so little Schwarber and Suzuki news before the lockout (fingers crossed) To your first point. They better not care about the tax as they've already spent almost 30 million dollars when you add this extra $ from jbj vs renfroe to wacha/hill/Paxton. They also are probably worse on both sides of the ball from the end of season roster as of right now. Hopefully they have another 30-40 mil to spend to fill their remaining holes. They spent 6 million dollars on Paxton to basically have him try out for the team in 2022 and 2023. They also traded for JBJ and the 17.5 million dollars left on his contract for two prospects. The CBT number is now at 195ish million, with plenty of holes to fill. Yeah, I think they don't care about the Tax
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 2, 2021 9:13:15 GMT -5
So Binelas was a top prospect who dropped to the third round because his performance was mediocre. Except if you include his minor league debut, his performance for the season was actually impressive. And he has the hamate excuse.
I'm kinda thinking the Red Sox identified that this guy is actually like the 57th best prospect in baseball and they made sure to get their man
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 2, 2021 9:17:21 GMT -5
I'm getting kind of excited about Binelas. We traded Hunter Renfroe for our Jud Fabian replacement.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 2, 2021 9:19:14 GMT -5
To your first point. They better not care about the tax as they've already spent almost 30 million dollars when you add this extra $ from jbj vs renfroe to wacha/hill/Paxton. They also are probably worse on both sides of the ball from the end of season roster as of right now. Hopefully they have another 30-40 mil to spend to fill their remaining holes. They spent 6 million dollars on Paxton to basically have him try out for the team in 2022 and 2023. They also traded for JBJ and the 17.5 million dollars left on his contract for two prospects. The CBT number is now at 195ish million, with plenty of holes to fill. Yeah, I think they don't care about the Tax What they've done so far would lead me to believe you're right but how much over the tax are they willing to go? They still have some pretty major holes to fill to say on paper the team has just as good a chance as the team they had last year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 2, 2021 9:20:44 GMT -5
There are a couple of aspects of this trade that make it intriguing:
1. Alex Binelas won't require a 40-man roster spot until 2024 (under the current system). Given how cramped 40-man rosters have become, this is very important.
2. Hamilton has only played a single season of organized back due to lost 2019 & 2020 seasons. He was rushed up to AA and held his own. Not many could have made that type of adjustment that quickly.
3. JBJ as the 4th OF not only fills a roster hole but it also potentially saves the team a 40-man spot (which is quite valuable at the moment). The fan consensus is that Arroyo needs a strong backup if he's the starting 2B. As the Red Sox didn't have this type of player, and didn't have a 4th OF on their 40-man, that was 2 spots to fill with only 1 opening (and they still need a platoon 1b). With JBJ, they can shift Kiké to 2b as the backup (or starter, I'm sure they'll mix and match) which makes the need for another 2b irrelevant. As Arrauz should be fine as the 2nd backup (if he isn't by now they need to replace him), and is already on the 40-man, this saves a roster spot until they can move guys onto the injured list.
4. What might be most important is that JBJ has a 4mil option (for tax purposes) for 2023. With Kiké set to be a free agent, Duran still a question mark and no other CF prospects knocking on the door, this is a great backup plan. And at 4mil, JBJ would have to be awful for them not to pickup the option, so it's a good value. This is a good example of a non tax paying team creating a contract that is good for them (only 6.5 mil invested) and good for tax paying trade candidates (only 16mil tax over 2 years).
The funny thing about this trade (for me) is that when I built my 'perfect off-season' roster for the Red Sox a month ago, I had them trading Renfroe to the Brewers to replace Avisail Garcia. Of course I had them putting together a larger package for Hader - had no idea the return would be JBJ and prospects.
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Post by cardsox on Dec 2, 2021 9:24:06 GMT -5
So...when do we re-acquire David Price? and have the Dodgers repay us the money we gave them
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