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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by cardsox on Dec 2, 2021 9:30:21 GMT -5
JBJ shouldn’t be counted on as being a starting OF. He should be the 4th OF and also gives them a left-handed bat off the bench. If he starts the year in the outfield then I don’t like the trade. I still think that Suzuki or Schwarber or a COF of that caliber will start the season in the outfield along with Verdugo. As for Renfroe, Bloom is banking on his career year not being repeated again which seams logical. If Renfroe turns back into a pumpkin, this trade looks better on Bloom too. As for the prospects, I like them. Hamilton is a low ceiling, high floor guy that can be a utility player with speed in the majors. He is probably a bench option in 2023. Binelas is intriguing with his ceiling. Was a really highly regarded prospect before the draft. He broke his hamate bone in 2020 and struggled initially in 2021. The early season struggles contributed to his fall in the draft, but I wonder if they were largely due to getting back into the swing of things and coming back from an injury. IIRC hamate injuries don’t have the shortest rehab time and can really sap a power hitter for a bit. If he’s the player that he looked like in his pro debut, then he could be a really good prospect. Yes Binelas was always considered a much better hitter than teammate, Henry Davis, the 1.1 pick of the Pirates. Wasn’t same hitter for awhile but when it came back he had more power than ever. My alma mater so I saw almost all of their games
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Post by longgone24 on Dec 2, 2021 9:34:45 GMT -5
from Eric Longenhagens Mid-season rankings at FanGraphs-
14. David Hamilton, SS Drafted: 8th Round, 2019 from Texas (MIL) Age 23.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/50 40/40 30/35 70/70 50/55 50 In high school (he and Lutz were on the same Area Codes team), Hamilton was a terrific defensive shortstop with some feel to hit, but some teams didn’t think his narrow frame would fill out in a way that would generate relevant power, so he ended up matriculating to Texas. He had a rough freshman year, then rebounded as a sophomore and was in the third to fifth round mix following his summer on the Cape. Then Hamilton tore his Achilles tendon and missed not only his junior year at Texas, but the entire summer as well. His first pro at-bats came during 2020 big league spring training and he wasn’t able to suit up at an affiliate until 2021 as a 23-year-old at High-A. And while Hamilton’s performance demands scrutiny because he’s old for the level, he is off to an amazing start. He stole 31 bases in his first 43 games at an 86% success rate. At one point he hit homers in three consecutive games but pop isn’t really part of the driving tools here. Instead it’s speed, defense, and feel for contact (Hamilton is among the minor league leaders in SwingingStrike% at about 6%). Like Zamora behind him, he’s more likely to be a utility type because of the lack of power, but might have a good enough hit tool to overcome that.
...and he made it to Double A after not playing for 2 years.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 9:35:14 GMT -5
So to recap, is it fair to say that Bloom has made 1 trade (Workman) that nade the team immediately better, and no less than 3 (Mookie, Benny, Renfroe) that made the team immediately worse? In the later cases, the outcoming can be viewed as “pending,” but for a fan with 2 years to live, they’d be a huge bummer.
I don’t mind balancing present and future, but I’m not sure I see the balance. The “plan” seems to be accumulate mid-level prospects from Potts to Hamilton and buy risky in the short run. But we may be looking at the end of the line of the stars who enable the team to remain a threat: Eovaldi is in his last year, decisions must be made on X and Devers, and JDM is winding down. There are no replacements on the horizon, and signing guys like them seems anathema.
Even if they do sign Schwarber, which I expect, this trade leaves them a worse team. And for all the talk of going over the tax, money is ultimately finite — so the $33ish million dedicated to JBJ, Paxton, Wacha, and Hill *does* limit their options some for next year. So now we are at 3/4 a Scherzer. I will say for sure I’d rather have Scherzer next year and declining Scherzer for 2 more years (AND Renfroe) than that collection.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2021 9:35:44 GMT -5
I guess I like Alex Binelas' bat more than I originally thought. I didn't realize that he was injured and that's why his college hitting numbers weren't as impressive, or at least not as impressive as his small sample size A ball numbers.
I hope he can play 3b, that someone between Blaze Jordan and Alex Binelas can play 3b.
I hate that we'll have to wait a long time to find out who the corner OF is that the Sox must now get, whether it's Schwarber, Castellanos, Bryant (don't see that happening), Soler, or Suzuki.
If JBJ is to be a 4th OF, then the Sox still need to get a 2b in addition to a corner OF, because Hernandez would still be the starting CF.
So either JBJ and Hernandez are penciled into the outfield as it stands now. While they have Arroyo and whoever at 2b.
Crazy thought here - maybe they should consider moving Duran back to 2b if he's not good enough a hitter to be a corner OF or good enough defensively to play CF - if hey don't trade him?
Or they bring in a corner OF like Schwarber, move Verdugo to RF, with JBJ platooning with Arroyo as Hernandez shuttles back and forth between 2b and CF.
Or they bring in a corner OF like Schwarber, play Hernandez in CF, Verdugo in RF (or in LF in Suzuki is acquired for RF). And they'd have Arroyo and another addition at 2b (I'd guess Iglesias?). Of course the people who love fantasy are penciling in Bogaerts at 2b as of course, the SS will be Correa. Haha.
Can't wait to see which way they go.
The ironic thing is that their rotation makeover is probably complete when a few days ago it looks like it was in such flux. Yet the bullpen is still quite unsettled, too.
At this moment, the team on the field, is not as good as the one that finished the 2021 season, so Bloom will still have a lot of work to do to fix this.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 2, 2021 9:36:46 GMT -5
If the NL gets the DH like everyone expects, I think my preference would be to sign Schwarber and Suzuki, then trade JD to an NL team in need of a DH. Schwarber becomes your long term DH with some ability to fill in at 1B/LF, and Suzuki slots into RF.
If you don’t sign Schwarber now, you’ll need a DH soon anyway with JDM declining.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 2, 2021 9:42:07 GMT -5
Random thoughts: - I also think that after the lockout the other shoe will drop with regards to this deal, I'd be thrilled with Schwarber or Suzuki. Conforto would be nice. Soler is interesting (was his time in Atlanta his breakout or just SSS) - JBJ will not bat against LHP - I don't think acquiring JBJ spells the end of Duran, but rather JBJ gets the first shot and if he is truly the hitter he was last year than Duran gets another shot. - Speaking of Duran, he should follow JBJ around like a puppy dog in Spring Training absorb everything he can about playing CF - Binelas looks like a very good get, especially if he is able to stick at 3B. Hamilton is interesting as well.
With regards to JBJ, if he doesn't hit for say the first month of the season, can the Sox send him to the minors or is releasing him their only option? I am sure someone knows this off the top of their head, I'm sure I could get the answer on Google, but too lazy/not interested enough to take the time.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 2, 2021 9:42:38 GMT -5
Umm, in a lockout, does the players' salary not get delayed? If the Sox essentially bought Pinelas for JBJ's $10M 2022 salary (and signed Paxton for $10M wasted 2022) but they are locked out for half the year, are the "dead money" costs of these deals reduced in half?
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Post by yaz1967 on Dec 2, 2021 9:43:16 GMT -5
Love all the chatter on potential of the two former Brewer minor leaguers and what may come next when unlocked. Great warmth on a bleak Dec day. Thank you SoxProspects!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 2, 2021 9:46:49 GMT -5
Binelas and Kavadas climbing the ranks and destroying baseballs is going to be fun.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 2, 2021 9:47:44 GMT -5
Guys, JBJ did not just displace Kiké as the team's starting CFer. This is this year's Ottavino - an overpriced contract Bloom takes on to buy prospects. JBJ is the 4th outfielder. I think it means they're probably adding Schwarber to replace Renfroe (with Verdugo to RF), but it could be someone else. This move makes zero sense for a contender. The Sox making this move as a last place team I totally get. But you just traded one your best hitters and elite outfielder for someone who plays elite defense and hit .163 last year. Unless they're trying to stack Boras clients to make Xander feel good this is a mistake for 2022. Yeah, I am with you AlexCoraHomeVideo. I can't figure this out - and I love me some JBJ, but unless Mil is paying half his salary I don't understand this move. Just a few quick thoughts: - For the "we're buying prospects! Great move!" crowd: These two prospects are sub Top 15 from a team that is in the 28th in minor league strength. Binelas is a power-only A ball prospect who might be able to bash his way to a cup of coffee, but has a poor plate discipline according to Baseball America and no position on the diamond. Hamilton is an org guy at best who may have a future...in Korea. If they had gotten Mitchell, Turang or Frelick I'd say this is a win but right now it looks like they wasted Renfroe's upside. - For the "I love this if we get Schwarber" crowd. Maybe, but then why make this move now when you don't have him and/or Suzuki!? It's not like teams were beating down Milwaukee's door for an over-paid, Defense-only CF and two crap prospects. The flip side is that they think Duran is ready to start next year in LF (does anyone here think Duran is ready?), but even so, it's an overpay D and two crap prospects. Meh. - When I said I believe they are wasting Renfroe's upside, I really meant it. If they think this year was an outlier so be it. But if you're going to move him why not wait until after the CBA is signed!? They do not have Schwarber or Suzuki and several other teams may skunk them for those - especially with Bloom making low-ball offers to every FA they "really wanted" so far. Meanwhile, teams will be scrambling with such a tight window. Anyone who is desperate for a corner bat will be likely to make a better deal for an affordable, average or so D OF who hit 30 HRs last year. Again, if the prospects were better or JBJ was in high demand my opinion would be different, but what I see on the surface is a straight-up crap deal.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Dec 2, 2021 9:54:01 GMT -5
Everybody seems to be assuming that Renfroe>JBJ for 2022, but it's not that clear cut. Bradley was the better player as recently as 2020. While I wouldn't necessarily bet on him bouncing back to everyday-starter level, it's totally possible that somebody in the org thinks they can fix him - they know his swing better than anyone else.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 2, 2021 9:57:07 GMT -5
I think I'm just going to place Binelas at #4 in the system for the rest of the day. We'll see how it sits with me.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 2, 2021 10:04:02 GMT -5
So to recap, is it fair to say that Bloom has made 1 trade (Workman) that nade the team immediately better, and no less than 3 (Mookie, Benny, Renfroe) that made the team immediately worse? In the later cases, the outcoming can be viewed as “pending,” but for a fan with 2 years to live, they’d be a huge bummer. I don’t mind balancing present and future, but I’m not sure I see the balance. The “plan” seems to be accumulate mid-level prospects from Potts to Hamilton and buy risky in the short run. But we may be looking at the end of the line of the stars who enable the team to remain a threat: Eovaldi is in his last year, decisions must be made on X and Devers, and JDM is winding down. There are no replacements on the horizon, and signing guys like them seems anathema. Even if they do sign Schwarber, which I expect, this trade leaves them a worse team. And for all the talk of going over the tax, money is ultimately finite — so the $33ish million dedicated to JBJ, Paxton, Wacha, and Hill *does* limit their options some for next year. So now we are at 3/4 a Scherzer. I will say for sure I’d rather have Scherzer next year and declining Scherzer for 2 more years (AND Renfroe) than that collection. I think this is a really overly simplistic way to look at it. Yes the Benintendi trade made them worse in a vacuum, but in context it didn't because it allowed them to create room for Renfroe in the outfield. The Renfroe trade in a vacuum makes them worse, but if they sign Schwarber I don't see how they aren't a clearly better team, with two more prospects, in a year where it appears they are planning to go over the luxury tax so who cares.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2021 10:06:07 GMT -5
This move makes zero sense for a contender. The Sox making this move as a last place team I totally get. But you just traded one your best hitters and elite outfielder for someone who plays elite defense and hit .163 last year. Unless they're trying to stack Boras clients to make Xander feel good this is a mistake for 2022. Yeah, I am with you AlexCoraHomeVideo. I can't figure this out - and I love me some JBJ, but unless Mil is paying half his salary I don't understand this move. Just a few quick thoughts: - For the "we're buying prospects! Great move!" crowd: These two prospects are sub Top 15 from a team that is in the 28th in minor league strength. Binelas is a power-only A ball prospect who might be able to bash his way to a cup of coffee, but has a poor plate discipline according to Baseball America and no position on the diamond. Hamilton is an org guy at best who may have a future...in Korea. If they had gotten Mitchell, Turang or Frelick I'd say this is a win but right now it looks like they wasted Renfroe's upside. - For the "I love this if we get Schwarber" crowd. Maybe, but then why make this move now when you don't have him and/or Suzuki!? It's not like teams were beating down Milwaukee's door for an over-paid, Defense-only CF and two crap prospects. The flip side is that they think Duran is ready to start next year in LF (does anyone here think Duran is ready?), but even so, it's an overpay D and two crap prospects. Meh. - When I said I believe they are wasting Renfroe's upside, I really meant it. If they think this year was an outlier so be it. But if you're going to move him why not wait until after the CBA is signed!? They do not have Schwarber or Suzuki and several other teams may skunk them for those - especially with Bloom making low-ball offers to every FA they "really wanted" so far. Meanwhile, teams will be scrambling with such a tight window. Anyone who is desperate for a corner bat will be likely to make a better deal for an affordable, average or so D OF who hit 30 HRs last year. Again, if the prospects were better or JBJ was in high demand my opinion would be different, but what I see on the surface is a straight-up crap deal. Funny thing is that I don't disagree with anything you wrote, yet it can still work out swimmingly....or be a lot of nothing. I do think the Sox got Renfroe's career year. Not hard to see his .259 turning into .230 next season and his OBP falling under .300. JBJ's presence/Renfroe's absence does allow for the Sox to sign Schwarber and not have to shoehorn him into the lineup in the haphazard way they did last year. Schwarber's presence in the lineup in the postseason came at the expense of Dalbec, who is a similar type hitter to Renfroe, so having both in the lineup is kind of redundant. Now Dalbec remains at 1b, at least until Casas forces his way up. And Bradley's presence allows them to have late inning defense if they do sign a defensive butcher like Schwarber and it allows Hernandez to play some 2b if they need to. They couldn't really play Hernandez at 2b at all. But honestly I still wouldn't want to play Hernandez at 2b because I don't want JBJ's bat in the lineup in CF. They still need 2b help, but at least this way it's not as thin. And even with all that I typed, we both know that we wouldn't trade Renfroe at this point for JBJ straight up. So it will come down to the prospects. I'm guessing that Hamilton becomes a useful utility guy with speed and some walks who might wind up being trade bait, but the real prize is Binelas who was highly regarded. I don't know about his plate approach other than he hit well at A ball and that he had extenuating circumstances in college. If Binelas isn't much more than a AAAA DH, then yeah, I don't think it's worth it, either. I guess it'll come down to how well they fill out the rest of the OF and 2b, and how good Binelas truly is. This is one of those tossup types of deals. Could be a steal if Binelas is an offensive stud. Could be a disaster if they don't adequately replace Renfroe and tie up more of the payroll on a washed up player and two minor leaguers who are fringy. I truly can see either viewpoint.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2021 10:11:15 GMT -5
Remember when Renfroe signed off the scrap heap and struggled the first month and people were mad that the Red Sox were wasting a roster spot on him? And then he played really well and the Red Sox traded him for two legit prospects and people complained that it made the team worse? Everyone likes the idea of selling high, but nobody likes it in the moment.
Anyway, Bradley is a secondary part of this deal to me. If the Red Sox had traded Renfroe for a Hamilton and Binelas and taken on $3.5 of Renfroe's salary, I'd think that was pretty good. Well, instead of that they took on Bradley, adding $3.5M to their payroll. Maybe Bradley's bat rebounds (hard to see, he looked like toast at the plate with Milwaukee), but more likely he's a defensive replacement who allows the team to sign Schwarber or a similar bat-first corner outfielder. If they don't do that, then yeah, the MLB team is worse in the meantime. But as part of a roster-building and organizational-building exercise, this trade makes a lot of sense.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Dec 2, 2021 10:16:20 GMT -5
You guys sure bring a lot of knowledge to "our" Red Sox minor league. This is an interesting trade and shocking trade. I can add a little more information about Alex Binelas. When he was in high school he dropped down the draft as most prospects from my state do. Alex wanted to go into pro ball out of high school. He also knows the value of education and building up his "value" in college. When I first heard of him I had to go see him. I briefly only met him a few times. We have mutual people in our lives. Anyways as a player when from I watched him has changed. His big big "knock" was strength. Experience is a "given" coming out of Wisconsin. I do not know if he has bulked up to much. He was really fast out of high school. Now he has a 45 run? Does anybody have a recent video of him?
I hope this trade works out for both teams. I think it is not a good trade. I never will. Renfroe is an upgrade over Avisail Garcia for the Brewers, who were desperate to trade JBJ. The Brewers lowered their 2021 budget, and got rid of a horrible hitter. JBJ looked really bad ALL year long. He's a 4th outfielder making starter money.
This does help the Sox horrible defense.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 2, 2021 10:21:01 GMT -5
He was really fast out of high school. Now he has a 45 run? Does anybody have a recent video of him? He apparently ran fast at the draft combine, although I can't find the actual number.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 10:23:59 GMT -5
Remember when Renfroe signed off the scrap heap and struggled the first month and people were mad that the Red Sox were wasting a roster spot on him? And then he played really well and the Red Sox traded him for two legit prospects and people complained that it made the team worse? Everyone likes the idea of selling high, but nobody likes it in the moment. Anyway, Bradley is a secondary part of this deal to me. If the Red Sox had traded Renfroe for a Hamilton and Binelas and taken on $3.5 of Renfroe's salary, I'd think that was pretty good. Well, instead of that they took on Bradley, adding $3.5M to their payroll. Maybe Bradley's bat rebounds (hard to see, he looked like toast at the plate with Milwaukee), but more likely he's a defensive replacement who allows the team to sign Schwarber or a similar bat-first corner outfielder. If they don't do that, then yeah, the MLB team is worse in the meantime. But as part of a roster-building and organizational-building exercise, this trade makes a lot of sense. I get this attitude, and I agree in my own case, I didn’t like the signing and I don’t like the trade. But being wrong the first time doesn’t mean simply acquiescing the second. More to the point: why trade high *now*? They were better than everyone thought last year, but the clock is ticking. Eovaldi, JDM, X, and Devers are all potentially nearing the end of their run. Getting more prospects for two years from now doesn’t help this core, and it doesn’t address the issues they’ll face then. I guess I am not a fan of a strategy that keeps punting two years down the line. Two years ago, a Mookie trade that would pay off later. Last year a Benny trade that would pay off later. Now a Renfroe trade that will pay off later. And people keep saying the FA signings are short term so they won’t hurt long term. How soon is now?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 2, 2021 10:27:48 GMT -5
I guess Bloom must really like the prospects he got? Could JBJ just be waived/DFAd? Would Bloom eat that much $$? Can’t imagine JBJ has much trade value in flip to a team seeking a CF/4th OF (Philly?), maybe if Bloom eats some of the money owed? I think Bloom isn’t done trading. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him acquire more over paid players & buy prospects. It actually might be the best way to spend the money. I have to rate this incomplete for now and that bites the big one with a lockout in place. It’s a Bloom cliffhanger I like this thinking. This is the kind of thing you can do when your pockets are deep, like they are now. Could turn JBJ into another prospect but he also has some value as a 4th OF with an elite glove, so you can shop for the right prospect and not force a deal if you don't find a good one.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 2, 2021 10:31:44 GMT -5
manfred, maybe it's less about deciding to trade Renfroe for prospects and taking what you can get, and more about deciding to hunt down the specific guys they ended up with and finding the price was light.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2021 10:37:27 GMT -5
Remember when Renfroe signed off the scrap heap and struggled the first month and people were mad that the Red Sox were wasting a roster spot on him? And then he played really well and the Red Sox traded him for two legit prospects and people complained that it made the team worse? Everyone likes the idea of selling high, but nobody likes it in the moment. Anyway, Bradley is a secondary part of this deal to me. If the Red Sox had traded Renfroe for a Hamilton and Binelas and taken on $3.5 of Renfroe's salary, I'd think that was pretty good. Well, instead of that they took on Bradley, adding $3.5M to their payroll. Maybe Bradley's bat rebounds (hard to see, he looked like toast at the plate with Milwaukee), but more likely he's a defensive replacement who allows the team to sign Schwarber or a similar bat-first corner outfielder. If they don't do that, then yeah, the MLB team is worse in the meantime. But as part of a roster-building and organizational-building exercise, this trade makes a lot of sense. I get this attitude, and I agree in my own case, I didn’t like the signing and I don’t like the trade. But being wrong the first time doesn’t mean simply acquiescing the second. More to the point: why trade high *now*? They were better than everyone thought last year, but the clock is ticking. Eovaldi, JDM, X, and Devers are all potentially nearing the end of their run. Getting more prospects for two years from now doesn’t help this core, and it doesn’t address the issues they’ll face then. I guess I am not a fan of a strategy that keeps punting two years down the line. Two years ago, a Mookie trade that would pay off later. Last year a Benny trade that would pay off later. Now a Renfroe trade that will pay off later. And people keep saying the FA signings are short term so they won’t hurt long term. How soon is now? Because I don't think they're doing that. I think they're getting a corner outfielder who can hit and that Renfroe didn't fit the roster with that being the case and that he's currently overvalued so they jumped on two decent prospects for him. These things don't always happen in order. It's like the Paxton deal - it complemented the moves they knew they were making but hadn't happened yet. If Bradley is a starting outfielder I will be surprised and disappointed.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 10:42:47 GMT -5
I get this attitude, and I agree in my own case, I didn’t like the signing and I don’t like the trade. But being wrong the first time doesn’t mean simply acquiescing the second. More to the point: why trade high *now*? They were better than everyone thought last year, but the clock is ticking. Eovaldi, JDM, X, and Devers are all potentially nearing the end of their run. Getting more prospects for two years from now doesn’t help this core, and it doesn’t address the issues they’ll face then. I guess I am not a fan of a strategy that keeps punting two years down the line. Two years ago, a Mookie trade that would pay off later. Last year a Benny trade that would pay off later. Now a Renfroe trade that will pay off later. And people keep saying the FA signings are short term so they won’t hurt long term. How soon is now? Because I don't think they're doing that. I think they're getting a corner outfielder who can hit and that Renfroe didn't fit the roster with that being the case and that he's currently overvalued so they jumped on two decent prospects for him. These things don't always happen in order. It's like the Paxton deal - it complemented the moves they knew they were making but hadn't happened yet. If Bradley is a starting outfielder I will be surprised and disappointed. I will be shocked if he starts. Near 0% chance. But I guess the question is — is Schwarber-Kiké-Verdugo that much better than Verdugo-Kiké-Renfroe? And adding a lot of salary that could be directed elsewhere? I don’t mean is it better two or three years from now when the prospects *might* make it… I mean next year. It seems, again, unnecessary. If Renfroe is overvalued, why not get, say, a good reliever to replace Ottavino? Why use that excess value for salary dump if you really want to be better next year?
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Post by joshuacoffee on Dec 2, 2021 10:45:31 GMT -5
You know, there's a lot of people talking about last year being a career year for Renfroe, and maybe it was by a little, but looking at his history, according to Baseball Reference, he had two seasons prior to this on with higher WARs. Though admittedly one of those seems to be from a flukey good defensive year. If you throw out the crazy good 36 PAs he got in his first year of 2016, and the bad 139 PAs he got in 2020 (weird Covid year for almost everyone), he's a league average, and probably a little above, hitter (season WOBAs of -.005, +.023, +0, and +.030 from league average). If you're not going to spend money, Renfroe is a pretty decent option at 7.5 mil for a starting player. This is actually a nice move for the present for the Brewers, and there's some cost saving thrown in for them too. That being said...
From the Red Sox point of view, hopefully this means they are going to spend money and they are basically just buying prospects here. If that's the case, Renfroe is probably a bit too expensive and valuable to keep around as as bench player. I know JBJ is more expensive, but he's less valuable, so you wouldn't get anything for moving him (unless you gave up something else with him like the Brewers did) so you might as well keep him as a bench player. The Sox already needed at least one COF, but maybe they're pretty sure they can go get two players who are better than Renfroe to start. For all the crap he's getting about his defense in this thread, Schwarber is clearly someone you would rather have playing every day than Renfroe. He's just that much better of a hitter and you do a long term deal with him (5-8 years, not 9 or 10) with an eye on him replacing JDM at some point. If you get to the place where Devers becomes too much of a defensive liability and you need to move Schwarber to open the DH spot for him, you'll likely get a nice return for Schwarber at that point. From there, you only need one of the players still available that are likely to be better than Renfroe (Bryant, Suzuki, Castellanos, or Conforto), or roughly as good as Renfroe (Soler, Rosario), and you haven't lost anything this year. The only cost here is money and having one bench spot not as good as it would have otherwise been, and the gain is two prospects.
On the prospects, I think Binelas is really interesting. I'm not sure that he ever plays for Boston in the best case scenario (which is by the time he's ready for the bigs, Schwarber is entrenched at DH and Casas is a cornerstone at 1st), but when the National League gets the DH, players without a defensive position are going to take a jump in value, which means if Binelas develops, he should have some good trade value in the future.
If JBJ is starting this year, this is a bad deal, I just think (really, really hope) that is not going to be the case.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 2, 2021 10:53:01 GMT -5
You know, there's a lot of people talking about last year being a career year for Renfroe, and maybe it was by a little, but looking at his history, according to Baseball Reference, he had two seasons prior to this on with higher WARs. Though admittedly one of those seems to be from a flukey good defensive year. If you throw out the crazy good 36 PAs he got in his first year of 2016, and the bad 139 PAs he got in 2020 (weird Covid year for almost everyone), he's a league average, and probably a little above, hitter (season WOBAs of -.005, +.023, +0, and +.030 from league average). If you're not going to spend money, Renfroe is a pretty decent option at 7.5 mil for a starting player. This is actually a nice move for the present for the Brewers, and there's some cost saving thrown in for them too. That being said... From the Red Sox point of view, hopefully this means they are going to spend money and they are basically just buying prospects here. If that's the case, Renfroe is probably a bit too expensive and valuable to keep around as as bench player. I know JBJ is more expensive, but he's less valuable, so you wouldn't get anything for moving him (unless you gave up something else with him like the Brewers did) so you might as well keep him as a bench player. The Sox already needed at least one COF, but maybe they're pretty sure they can go get two players who are better than Renfroe to start. For all the crap he's getting about his defense in this thread, Schwarber is clearly someone you would rather have playing every day than Renfroe. He's just that much better of a hitter and you do a long term deal with him (5-8 years, not 9 or 10) with an eye on him replacing JDM at some point. If you get to the place where Devers becomes too much of a defensive liability and you need to move Schwarber to open the DH spot for him, you'll likely get a nice return for Schwarber at that point. From there, you only need one of the players still available that are likely to be better than Renfroe (Bryant, Suzuki, Castellanos, or Conforto), or roughly as good as Renfroe (Soler, Rosario), and you haven't lost anything this year. The only cost here is money and having one bench spot not as good as it would have otherwise been, and the gain is two prospects. On the prospects, I think Binelas is really interesting. I'm not sure that he ever plays for Boston in the best case scenario (which is by the time he's ready for the bigs, Schwarber is entrenched at DH and Casas is a cornerstone at 1st), but when the National League gets the DH, players without a defensive position are going to take a jump in value, which means if Binelas develops, he should have some good trade value in the future. If JBJ is starting this year, this is a bad deal, I just think (really, really hope) that is not going to be the case. So you’re ok with Renfroe who hit below .100 in the playoffs but you’re not ok with a gold glove CF that hits around .230 and steps it up come playoff time. This move was all about the defense and hopefully means Schwarber is a done deal.Binelas is top 10 in our system instantly. Renfroe wasn’t going to resign after this year so it was a damn near flawless trade!
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Post by ccoll33 on Dec 2, 2021 10:53:29 GMT -5
ppl don't get that we can use this bolster in our farm system(addition of two prospects) to potentially trade other guys while maintaining a strong farm system. I think we sign schwarba(corner outfielder) and then trade for a pitcher like montas or sonny gray
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