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Who should the Red Sox extend in 2022?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 4, 2022 8:48:25 GMT -5
I understand the points forever9 and julyanmorley are making and, in fact, was already aware of them. Before I posted, I thought I recalled reading that an all-replacement level team would win about 48 games. I searched and found this article, which seems to confirm that: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsIt says, "A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628." So, getting to 90 wins at $8M per would get your payroll to $336 million (42 x $8M). If I understand julyanmorley's post, it says the same thing. Getting to 81 wins requires a 33-WAR roster. You get 48 for being replacement level and need another 33. I'm also aware that the high-end cost per WAR that gets quoted is for FAs. The lesson I take from that is that it's best to avoid big FA contracts when you can. They are an inefficient and super high-risk way to add talent. If you feel your team in nearly complete, but you just need another piece or two to go on a run that could bring one or more titles, then go ahead and overpay. Three years of paying David Price to pitch in LA is painful, but he was integral to the 2018 championship, so I'm Ok with it.There's also the issue of downside risk. The question the thread poses is whether we would pay Raffy $300 million for nine years. That's $33.3 million/year. If his career were to go the way of, let's say, Nomar's, the RS would have a massive sunk cost on their hands. Nomie put up 2.4 WAR from his age 30 to 33 seasons. Starting a nine-year Raffy contract now (in other words buying out his last two arb years) would take him through his age 33 season. Mo Vaughn is another example. Mo put up 3.6 WAR in his age 31 to 33 seasons while drawing checks from the Angels. I'll grant you that Mo's lifestyle probably didn't help. The VIP lounge at the Foxy Lady and buffet restaurants aren't known as great training facilities. He let himself go when it came to conditioning. Nomar and Mo are probably extreme examples of guys who fell of a cliff. But I think we all agree that the second halves of these massive contracts are usually disasters. In general, I'm extremely wary of massive long-term contracts, as I guess you can tell. But they have to spend their money on somebody. They can't realistically get up to a $230 million payroll on $7-10 million/year deals. And a really good team needs a few great players, which you can't just count on getting solely from cost-controlled guys. Even if it is not maximally efficient from a WAR perspective, it still makes sense to sign the occasional expensive long-term deal.
Of course those deals can go sideways so you want to be smart about it. So what are the best bets? Well, if the player in question still has two years of control you ought to get him at a discount relative to FA prices. And if he's 25 you're at less risk of decline. In short, if you're ever going to give a player a $300 million contract - and you should occasionally want to do that - Devers is the guy to give it to.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,795
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Post by mobaz on Apr 4, 2022 9:02:00 GMT -5
But they have to spend their money on somebody. They can't realistically get up to a $230 million payroll on $7-10 million/year deals. And a really good team needs a few great players, which you can't just count on getting solely from cost-controlled guys. Even if it is not maximally efficient from a WAR perspective, it still makes sense to sign the occasional expensive long-term deal.
Of course those deals can go sideways so you want to be smart about it. So what are the best bets? Well, if the player in question still has two years of control you ought to get him at a discount relative to FA prices. And if he's 25 you're at less risk of decline. In short, if you're ever going to give a player a $300 million contract - and you should occasionally want to do that - Devers is the guy to give it to.
I still think he costs less than $300M, but yeah basically hard agree. Gotta pay someone! I'm as hard as anyone on Boegarts/Devers defense but it's way premature to call him a DH in waiting.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 4, 2022 9:24:47 GMT -5
I understand the points forever9 and julyanmorley are making and, in fact, was already aware of them. Before I posted, I thought I recalled reading that an all-replacement level team would win about 48 games. I searched and found this article, which seems to confirm that: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsIt says, "A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628." So, getting to 90 wins at $8M per would get your payroll to $336 million (42 x $8M). If I understand julyanmorley's post, it says the same thing. Getting to 81 wins requires a 33-WAR roster. You get 48 for being replacement level and need another 33. I'm also aware that the high-end cost per WAR that gets quoted is for FAs. The lesson I take from that is that it's best to avoid big FA contracts when you can. They are an inefficient and super high-risk way to add talent. If you feel your team in nearly complete, but you just need another piece or two to go on a run that could bring one or more titles, then go ahead and overpay. Three years of paying David Price to pitch in LA is painful, but he was integral to the 2018 championship, so I'm Ok with it.There's also the issue of downside risk. The question the thread poses is whether we would pay Raffy $300 million for nine years. That's $33.3 million/year. If his career were to go the way of, let's say, Nomar's, the RS would have a massive sunk cost on their hands. Nomie put up 2.4 WAR from his age 30 to 33 seasons. Starting a nine-year Raffy contract now (in other words buying out his last two arb years) would take him through his age 33 season. Mo Vaughn is another example. Mo put up 3.6 WAR in his age 31 to 33 seasons while drawing checks from the Angels. I'll grant you that Mo's lifestyle probably didn't help. The VIP lounge at the Foxy Lady and buffet restaurants aren't known as great training facilities. He let himself go when it came to conditioning. Nomar and Mo are probably extreme examples of guys who fell of a cliff. But I think we all agree that the second halves of these massive contracts are usually disasters. In general, I'm extremely wary of massive long-term contracts, as I guess you can tell. But they have to spend their money on somebody. They can't realistically get up to a $230 million payroll on $7-10 million/year deals. And a really good team needs a few great players, which you can't just count on getting solely from cost-controlled guys. Even if it is not maximally efficient from a WAR perspective, it still makes sense to sign the occasional expensive long-term deal.
Of course those deals can go sideways so you want to be smart about it. So what are the best bets? Well, if the player in question still has two years of control you ought to get him at a discount relative to FA prices. And if he's 25 you're at less risk of decline. In short, if you're ever going to give a player a $300 million contract - and you should occasionally want to do that - Devers is the guy to give it to.
This is my attitude as well. At some point, the Red Sox are going to have to swim in the deep end of the pool. The Angels did with Trout, the Dodgers with Mookie, the Padres with Machado and Tatis, the Yankees with Stanton and Cole, the Phillies and Harper, the Rangers and Seager, the Cardinals and Arenado. I am sure some team is going to give Correa $300+ million next offseason. For a long time, the rule was the Red Sox didn't give big contracts to pitchers over 30. Then that changed with Price. At some point, this rule that the Red Sox don't give large, $250+ million contracts is going to have to change because the Red Sox belong in the above group of teams. Otherwise you are looking at operating like a mid-market team like the Astros or the Blue Jays, and that wouldn't be acceptable to me.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2022 10:49:50 GMT -5
Tearsin04, I don't think you are considering the scarcity of 4+ WAR players. If you don't sign huge contracts, you will end up with none of them, except the ones you develop yourself.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 4, 2022 15:00:36 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 4, 2022 16:16:32 GMT -5
Have to keep Devers. I'd like to keep Xander but I see him getting a bigger contract than likely will make sense. I kind of expect them to resign Vazquez and keep him around, I think there's something to an argument that a catcher has more value to his current team than his next one if he has a good knowledge of/relationship with the pitching staff. I think he could be good for Ronaldo Hernandez too if he is to join the team in the next couple years.
Kiké and Eovaldi would love to have stay, but given their age may be more price-dependent. I think JD is gone.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Apr 4, 2022 17:23:41 GMT -5
Have to keep Devers. I'd like to keep Xander but I see him getting a bigger contract than likely will make sense. I kind of expect them to resign Vazquez and keep him around, I think there's something to an argument that a catcher has more value to his current team than his next one if he has a good knowledge of/relationship with the pitching staff. I think he could be good for Ronaldo Hernandez too if he is to join the team in the next couple years. Kiké and Eovaldi would love to have stay, but given their age may be more price-dependent. I think JD is gone. What makes you think that? They tried to trade him in 2020, during the year and after. This offseason, they've tried to trade for catchers, and that was after there was apparently debate about whether or not to pick the option. I think he's almost certainly gone after the year
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 4, 2022 17:44:19 GMT -5
We need to extend both Devers and Xander. Devers is a non-discussion. Give him 8 years for 240 Million with a team option on another year. Xander is the soul of this team. Letting him go would be a travesty. He took a team friendly contract because he wants to be here. I'd offer a 7-year contract at an average of $25 mill a year. Even at 36, he would be a super DH. I do believe in Xander about doing what is best for the Sox. Story will eventually be the shortstop for 3 to 4 years with Mayer then taking over. Love the Story signing. Saw Mayer several times last year, and he is the real deal.
Keep them both. Xander is someone who will age well and give us lots of versatility. Sign them both and wait for Mayer, Casas, and Yorke to make us a consistent contender!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 5, 2022 1:47:28 GMT -5
WHOM should the Red Sox extend in 2022?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2022 8:37:18 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez just signed a 5/124m extension. Let’s just call it 25m per season. He’s 4 years older than Raffy but also a better player by not an insignificant margin considering he’s actually a 5 tool player. That being said, Devers is still pre-prime and the age isn’t insignificant. 8/224 (28m per) should be a fair deal. It’s a quality offer, they should at least be making it after that extension was reached with Ramirez. Devers having little to no defensive value isn’t good for him. Even if he has to move to first, he’s not going to be great there. Freddie Freeman is and got 27m per. Yes, he’s much older, he again, an MVP and much better player who contributes both sides of the ball.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 6, 2022 8:54:30 GMT -5
At this point there's no reason to think that Boston will extend Devers or Xander. They're both going to the open market. Depending on the hometown discount that they are willing to give they'll either be back or the Sox will get a comp pick for them.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 6, 2022 9:17:17 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez just signed a 5/124m extension. Let’s just call it 25m per season. He’s 4 years older than Raffy but also a better player by not an insignificant margin considering he’s actually a 5 tool player. That being said, Devers is still pre-prime and the age isn’t insignificant. 8/224 (28m per) should be a fair deal. It’s a quality offer, they should at least be making it after that extension was reached with Ramirez. Devers having little to no defensive value isn’t good for him. Even if he has to move to first, he’s not going to be great there. Freddie Freeman is and got 27m per. Yes, he’s much older, he again, an MVP and much better player who contributes both sides of the ball. You could offer Devers 8 years 224 million but I suspect he'd turn it down. My guess is that he's looking for somewhere near 10 years 300 million as I'm sure he values himself as a 3b rather than a 1b/dh. If 8 years 224 million is what it takes for Devers to sign, then I'd hope the Sox would offer it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2022 9:23:58 GMT -5
At this point there's no reason to think that Boston will extend Devers or Xander. They're both going to the open market. Depending on the hometown discount that they are willing to give they'll either be back or the Sox will get a comp pick for them. According to Devers they haven’t even engaged so if they are going to open market it’s because that’s where the team wants them at this point.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2022 9:27:54 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez just signed a 5/124m extension. Let’s just call it 25m per season. He’s 4 years older than Raffy but also a better player by not an insignificant margin considering he’s actually a 5 tool player. That being said, Devers is still pre-prime and the age isn’t insignificant. 8/224 (28m per) should be a fair deal. It’s a quality offer, they should at least be making it after that extension was reached with Ramirez. Devers having little to no defensive value isn’t good for him. Even if he has to move to first, he’s not going to be great there. Freddie Freeman is and got 27m per. Yes, he’s much older, he again, an MVP and much better player who contributes both sides of the ball. You could offer Devers 8 years 224 million but I suspect he'd turn it down. My guess is that he's looking for somewhere near 10 years 300 million as I'm sure he values himself as a 3b rather than a 1b/dh. If 8 years 224 million is what it takes for Devers to sign, then I'd hope the Sox would offer it. There very little reason to think Devers is worth 10/300 on the open market at this point. Now he has 2 years to really improve his game to get there but guys who are all bat an no glove don’t get that kind of money. It’s probably why the Sox are even hesitant to offer him something like 8/224. It’s tricky because their aren’t many recent comps available for a guy like Devers.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 6, 2022 9:54:48 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez signs for 5/124m.
That should give all of us hope that both X and Raffy can be extended for reasonable amounts. I stand by my prediction that both stay in a Sox uniform. In fact IMO all of these guys will be extended except for JD. If CV has a bounce back year at the plate he will be but if not they may look to upgrade.
Eovaldi has a reputation for being a workout warrior so I don't worry about his age and a 4yr extension.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2022 10:12:50 GMT -5
I really don't get why people make predictions of doom and then assume that they are correct so they should despair over it. That is creating your own reality based on nothing.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 6, 2022 11:05:30 GMT -5
WHOM should the Red Sox extend in 2022? Sorry, not for me. Or this guy:
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 6, 2022 11:14:04 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez signs for 5/124m. That should give all of us hope that both X and Raffy can be extended for reasonable amounts. I stand by my prediction that both stay in a Sox uniform. In fact IMO all of these guys will be extended except for JD. If CV has a bounce back year at the plate he will be but if not they may look to upgrade. Eovaldi has a reputation for being a workout warrior so I don't worry about his age and a 4yr extension. I'd be okay replacing Vazquez and JD. They're both in decline.
The others are four core guys (including in the clubhouse) who can't be replaced easily or cheaply, with playoff chops and enough left in the tank, so open the vault.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 6, 2022 12:16:37 GMT -5
WHOM should the Red Sox extend in 2022? I was going to go there but I thought it might create issues.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 6, 2022 12:57:12 GMT -5
Here are two other questions to inform whether or not to lock up all of these guys:
1) Who else are they going to lock up? 2) What upcoming FAs would you rather have?
For question 1, I'm looking at Pivetta (2025), Dalbec and Whitlock (2027), and Houck and Duran (2028). Those dates in parentheses are when they can become FAs. Basically, after this year (plus Raffy next year), there will be a lull in having to lock anybody up, if any of those guys even warrant it.
In other words, the fact that we have four guys who really warrant being extended at good money is a good thing. Would you rather that the Sox didn't develop anyone who's good enough to enter that discussion?
For question 2, what are the positions of need that would warrant paying a guy top-market money? If you don't extend any of the guys in question, you're looking at SP, C, 2B, 3B, RF, CF. I'm just going to come out and say that trying to fill all of those holes in FA or trades, bidding against 20 other teams, is going to be a very expensive crap shoot.
If you extend Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Devers, and Enrique, you've got four guys you know and trust and you're down to C, RF, and maybe SP, which is much more manageable (the 2023 starters on the 40-man would be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Groome, Crawford, Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata).
In the end, the other two questions you have to ask yourself are: if not those four guys, then who and how?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2022 13:19:33 GMT -5
Here are two other questions to inform whether or not to lock up all of these guys: 1) Who else are they going to lock up? 2) What upcoming FAs would you rather have? For question 1, I'm looking at Pivetta (2025), Dalbec and Whitlock (2027), and Houck and Duran (2028). Those dates in parentheses are when they can become FAs. Basically, after this year (plus Raffy next year), there will be a lull in having to lock anybody up, if any of those guys even warrant it. In other words, the fact that we have four guys who really warrant being extended at good money is a good thing. Would you rather that the Sox didn't develop anyone who's good enough to enter that discussion? For question 2, what are the positions of need that would warrant paying a guy top-market money? If you don't extend any of the guys in question, you're looking at SP, C, 2B, 3B, RF, CF. I'm just going to come out and say that trying to fill all of those holes in FA or trades, bidding against 20 other teams, is going to be a very expensive crap shoot. If you extend Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Devers, and Enrique, you've got four guys you know and trust and you're down to C, RF, and maybe SP, which is much more manageable (the 2023 starters on the 40-man would be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Groome, Crawford, Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata). In the end, the other two questions you have to ask yourself are: if not those four guys, then who and how? The future free agent is Juan Soto
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 6, 2022 13:24:45 GMT -5
Here are two other questions to inform whether or not to lock up all of these guys: 1) Who else are they going to lock up? 2) What upcoming FAs would you rather have? For question 1, I'm looking at Pivetta (2025), Dalbec and Whitlock (2027), and Houck and Duran (2028). Those dates in parentheses are when they can become FAs. Basically, after this year (plus Raffy next year), there will be a lull in having to lock anybody up, if any of those guys even warrant it. In other words, the fact that we have four guys who really warrant being extended at good money is a good thing. Would you rather that the Sox didn't develop anyone who's good enough to enter that discussion? For question 2, what are the positions of need that would warrant paying a guy top-market money? If you don't extend any of the guys in question, you're looking at SP, C, 2B, 3B, RF, CF. I'm just going to come out and say that trying to fill all of those holes in FA or trades, bidding against 20 other teams, is going to be a very expensive crap shoot. If you extend Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Devers, and Enrique, you've got four guys you know and trust and you're down to C, RF, and maybe SP, which is much more manageable (the 2023 starters on the 40-man would be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Groome, Crawford, Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata). In the end, the other two questions you have to ask yourself are: if not those four guys, then who and how? Not that you would need to now (or maybe ever) but if Verudgo blossoms as hoped for, he'd be somebody to consider for an extension?
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 6, 2022 16:48:05 GMT -5
This guy also has another tweet saying Devers "deserves" a 10/300 extension, not sure if that opinion should be considered to be from Devers camp
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Post by bosoxkc on Apr 6, 2022 17:15:07 GMT -5
Bogaerts 8/210 Devers 10/300 Eovaldi 4/60 Kiki 4/44 Martinez QO
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 6, 2022 18:40:02 GMT -5
Offer Devers 10/325 with 2 option years. Do that now. If he rejects it.... trade him as soon as possible and load up on prospects. We have options coming quick and some already here.
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