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Who should the Red Sox extend in 2022?
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Post by keninten on Apr 6, 2022 19:22:03 GMT -5
I`d rather see Devers and X go to FA and see what the market is. Just because of their defense I think they are overrated.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 6, 2022 19:40:19 GMT -5
Here are two other questions to inform whether or not to lock up all of these guys: 1) Who else are they going to lock up? 2) What upcoming FAs would you rather have? For question 1, I'm looking at Pivetta (2025), Dalbec and Whitlock (2027), and Houck and Duran (2028). Those dates in parentheses are when they can become FAs. Basically, after this year (plus Raffy next year), there will be a lull in having to lock anybody up, if any of those guys even warrant it. In other words, the fact that we have four guys who really warrant being extended at good money is a good thing. Would you rather that the Sox didn't develop anyone who's good enough to enter that discussion? For question 2, what are the positions of need that would warrant paying a guy top-market money? If you don't extend any of the guys in question, you're looking at SP, C, 2B, 3B, RF, CF. I'm just going to come out and say that trying to fill all of those holes in FA or trades, bidding against 20 other teams, is going to be a very expensive crap shoot. If you extend Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Devers, and Enrique, you've got four guys you know and trust and you're down to C, RF, and maybe SP, which is much more manageable (the 2023 starters on the 40-man would be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Groome, Crawford, Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata). In the end, the other two questions you have to ask yourself are: if not those four guys, then who and how? The future free agent is Juan Soto I'd welcome him with open arms but the Nats ownership group is considered the wealthiest of them all and they've paid guys. They paid Strasburg, they paid Scherzer, they paid Corbin. Maybe they only pay pitchers? They let Rendon and Harper walk. They traded Turner (and two months of Scherzer) when they were sellers. Apparently they offered Soto 13y/$350m but that was too light, so it's going to take more than that to land him at his current skill level. Not sure Chaim will do that for a guy with two outstanding and three okay tools. His hit and power tools shouldn't deteriorate the way speed-based tools do but tell that to Arte Moreno.
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Post by soxaddict on Apr 6, 2022 20:16:25 GMT -5
Devers 12/$292M. Tatis Jr. got 14/$340M. Same AAV. Devers is 2 years older, IMO that should be the ceiling.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 7, 2022 2:27:17 GMT -5
X needs to be a lifer. The man has been one of the most consistent players in baseball. Also him recruiting Story is amazing. He’s so underrated by Sox fans it pisses me off. X needs to be a priority. Devers needs to realize he can’t get paid like the best players in baseball with how bad his defense is. If he wants to test FA then let him. As great as he is we’re not that much worse with Bobby D at 3rd and Tristian at 1st. Jose Ramirez was top 10 in MVP like 5 of the last 6 years. Devers should get something close to his deal. If not go pay the franchise guy Xander please!
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 7, 2022 14:21:53 GMT -5
Looks like Sox are gonna extend no one which sucks because the 4 guys(x devers nate and Kiké) I wanted to keep all said they were open to an extension.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 7, 2022 14:41:23 GMT -5
Devers 12/$292M. Tatis Jr. got 14/$340M. Same AAV. Devers is 2 years older, IMO that should be the ceiling. Fernando Tatis Jr. is so much better than Devers is lmao. It's the same with Harper. The only way Devers approaches that sort of money is if he hits out of his mind and goes to free agency.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 7, 2022 14:56:14 GMT -5
I like Devers a lot but I'm not giving him and probably not anyone some 10-12 year deal at 30-35+ million a year. 8 years 240 would be the offer if I'm the sox and perhaps if they're close enough I'd go a little higher but if that's not close enough for Rafi then I'd pivot to xandy try and get him signed to play 3rd next year. Play this year out with Rafi and deal him the off season. Preferably to some NL team who would give him the deal he wants so that he doesn't end up going to the Yankees or something.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2022 15:28:05 GMT -5
Devers is a lock to mash. Yes he might not make it at 3B, but he is a lock to hit and he’ll get paid. $30M today will not be equal to $30M 10 years from now. I think he’s someone you need to pay. If he ends up at 1B so be it. Casas is a very nice prospect, but there is no guarantee he will live up to his potential. If he does, it’s a good problem to have.
Bogaerts isn’t a lock to stay a plus hitter and is guaranteed to not make it defensively at SS much longer. I think anyone who signs him is basically locking themselves into some dead weight in the back end of his deal. He’ll also get a lot of attention in a pretty horrible FA class. I personally think he’s a goner and Story will be the SS.
Eovaldi I would like to extend. We’ll see how this year goes, but he’s pretty underrated and (knock on wood) has been more durable recently. As long as he doesn’t get crazy money I’d like to keep him.
Vazquez should be cheap, so go ahead and extend him, but he might never hit again. Catcher is a spot I’d continue to look to upgrade at.
Kiké will be a tough call until we get better sense of how legitimate his 2021 was. If Bogaerts leaves, it would be extra nice to have his positional flexibility for 2B.
I’m not sure what type of market JD will have, but love the guy. If he’s cheap and there’s nobody pounding on the door to be DH, why not keep him?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 7, 2022 16:04:16 GMT -5
My guess is if Bloom is unwilling to pay what the market is most likely to bear, than it could be a similar situation to what transpired with Mookie.
If he resigns Xander at the end of the year he could wind up trading Devers and plug in Dalbec at 3b with Casas at 1b. Story and X would be the keystone combo.
He could lose both X and Devers. If so then Devers is dealt for some young up and coming regular like a Verdugo and another really good prospect and another decent one because unlike Mookie, there's no David Price contract stapled to it.
Perhaps Devers goes for a young OF, a starting pitching prospect, maybe a catching prospect of some quality.
This isn't what I want to see happen but I think its increasingly possible.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 7, 2022 16:48:06 GMT -5
I understand the points forever9 and julyanmorley are making and, in fact, was already aware of them. Before I posted, I thought I recalled reading that an all-replacement level team would win about 48 games. I searched and found this article, which seems to confirm that: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsIt says, "A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628." So, getting to 90 wins at $8M per would get your payroll to $336 million (42 x $8M). If I understand julyanmorley's post, it says the same thing. Getting to 81 wins requires a 33-WAR roster. You get 48 for being replacement level and need another 33. I'm also aware that the high-end cost per WAR that gets quoted is for FAs. The lesson I take from that is that it's best to avoid big FA contracts when you can. They are an inefficient and super high-risk way to add talent. If you feel your team in nearly complete, but you just need another piece or two to go on a run that could bring one or more titles, then go ahead and overpay. Three years of paying David Price to pitch in LA is painful, but he was integral to the 2018 championship, so I'm Ok with it. There's also the issue of downside risk. The question the thread poses is whether we would pay Raffy $300 million for nine years. That's $33.3 million/year. If his career were to go the way of, let's say, Nomar's, the RS would have a massive sunk cost on their hands. Nomie put up 2.4 WAR from his age 30 to 33 seasons. Starting a nine-year Raffy contract now (in other words buying out his last two arb years) would take him through his age 33 season. Mo Vaughn is another example. Mo put up 3.6 WAR in his age 31 to 33 seasons while drawing checks from the Angels. I'll grant you that Mo's lifestyle probably didn't help. The VIP lounge at the Foxy Lady and buffet restaurants aren't known as great training facilities. He let himself go when it came to conditioning. Nomar and Mo are probably extreme examples of guys who fell of a cliff. But I think we all agree that the second halves of these massive contracts are usually disasters. In general, I'm extremely wary of massive long-term contracts, as I guess you can tell. I'm mostly with you on the massive contracts but at the same time the sox have money and basically nobody signed very long term so they can afford one maybe two? I don't want a team full of them obviously but theoretically Devers at 10 for 300-350 mil would be fine with me since he's still so young and Bloom seems to be building a good farm that would allow them to have a massive contract or two on the books and still have a well rounded team. Overpaying just because you can afford to is a great recipe for not being able to afford to much longer. I'm all for re-signing Devers, but at fair value, not a ludicrous overpay. 10 years at $30-35 million is what I would call a ludicrous overpay. As TearsIn04 pointed out, Correa just got 3 years at $35 million AAV for his age 27-29 seasons. Yes, there are opt outs, Correa is two years older, and Correa has had health issues in the past, but he is a substantially more valuable player than Devers is and he's not even sniffing that $300 million plus guaranteed. Plus, if the Sox do buy out his last two arbitration years for a new 10-year deal, his AAV is effectively even higher because you're also buying out two years at roughly 50% and 75% market value. It wouldn't be quite as big of a factor if the deal started after this season, but still.
Especially given what Jose Ramirez just got from Cleveland (5/124), 10/300-350 is just ludicrous money. J Ram has only finished worse than 6th in the MVP voting once in the last five seasons. Devers has never finished above 11th. I know that Devers is four years younger and still has room to grow, but he doesn't have Ramirez's defense or speed. Devers' peak wRC+ has so far been 134. J Ram has only had one season out of his last five below 137. Paying Devers like this would be assuming a high likelihood of him defending like 2019 Devers, reaching another gear offensively (totally possible given his age, but he still hasn't shown it), and remaining healthy throughout the deal. Otherwise there's little upside at that AAV and plenty of albatross risk.
I can't really picture a deal worth much over $200 million that I'd be happy with. Maybe something in the 8/220 range, but with no opt outs?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 7, 2022 16:53:55 GMT -5
Devers is a lock to mash. Yes he might not make it at 3B, but he is a lock to hit and he’ll get paid. $30M today will not be equal to $30M 10 years from now. I think he’s someone you need to pay. If he ends up at 1B so be it. Casas is a very nice prospect, but there is no guarantee he will live up to his potential. If he does, it’s a good problem to have. Bogaerts isn’t a lock to stay a plus hitter and is guaranteed to not make it defensively at SS much longer. I think anyone who signs him is basically locking themselves into some dead weight in the back end of his deal. He’ll also get a lot of attention in a pretty horrible FA class. I personally think he’s a goner and Story will be the SS. Why? Is it just the age thing? Because Bogaerts has been a better, more consistent hitter than Devers to this point. Devers is young enough that he could still jump a level (he's better than Bogaerts was at the same age), but I could definitely see him aging worse than Bogaerts: he's not as good a natural athlete, and his less-disciplined approach may not be so charming once the bat speed slows down a bit.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2022 17:02:32 GMT -5
Devers is a lock to mash. Yes he might not make it at 3B, but he is a lock to hit and he’ll get paid. $30M today will not be equal to $30M 10 years from now. I think he’s someone you need to pay. If he ends up at 1B so be it. Casas is a very nice prospect, but there is no guarantee he will live up to his potential. If he does, it’s a good problem to have. Bogaerts isn’t a lock to stay a plus hitter and is guaranteed to not make it defensively at SS much longer. I think anyone who signs him is basically locking themselves into some dead weight in the back end of his deal. He’ll also get a lot of attention in a pretty horrible FA class. I personally think he’s a goner and Story will be the SS. Why? Is it just the age thing? Because Bogaerts has been a better, more consistent hitter than Devers to this point. Devers is young enough that he could still jump a level (he's better than Bogaerts was at the same age), but I could definitely see him aging worse than Bogaerts: he's not as good a natural athlete, and his less-disciplined approach may not be so charming once the bat speed slows down a bit. Devers posted a xwOBA of .392 last year at age 24. Bogaerts’ career high is .361 and is going to be 29 this year and probably at least 35 by the end of his deal. I think he’ll start to downtrend on the second half of half his deal. Don’t get me wrong though, I love him and he’s a great player.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2022 17:11:32 GMT -5
It just sounds to me like Raffy is insisting on a deal that CB will not and should not offer. Raffy wants to choose his comps, but the RS already offered a deal better than the one Jose Ramirez signed and Ramirez is a better player.
I'd offer him eight years and $200 million. That's the same AAV that Ramirez got. Ramirez's deal will take him through his age 34 season. An eight-year contract that starts this season would take Raffy through age 33.
I'd frontload the deal a bit and give him an opt-out after year five with the stip that if he chooses to opt out the RS can retain him by converting his last three years to five years at $32 million per. Frontloading the deal is to Raffy's benefit and makes opting out after year five more attractive.
If he turns that down, CB should look for the optimal time to trade him. I don't want to see all these guys walk for draft picks. That's not good asset management.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 17:40:43 GMT -5
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox remain at odds over contract ahead of season opener www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33692496/shortstop-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox-remain-odds-contract-ahead-season-openerNEW YORK -- With shortstop Xander Bogaerts set to opt out of his contract after 2022, the question of whether he will be back with the Boston Red Sox next year looms over the team's season. When asked on Thursday whether he expected to come to an agreement with the Red Sox on a contract extension before their season starts on Friday, Bogaerts did not mince words. "No," Bogaerts said. "No." Boston offered Bogaerts an extension during the offseason, but the 29-year-old turned down the offer. According to team sources, Bogaerts asked for a contract that paid him in line with the game's highest-paid shortstops: Carlos Correa (who makes $35.1 million with the Minnesota Twins), Francisco Lindor (who makes $34.1 million with the New York Mets) and Corey Seager (who makes $33 million with the Texas Rangers). The Red Sox declined to match that request.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 17:48:38 GMT -5
"I can't do nothing about it right now," Bogaerts said in a deflated tone. "I got a season coming up in front of me. I don't want to put my teammates with that kind of distraction. They don't deserve it. We had time to get something done. It didn't work out."
Since coming up as one of the game's top prospects, Bogaerts repeatedly expressed his desire to stay with the Red Sox for his entire career, which started when Boston discovered him and his twin brother, Jair, in Aruba at 16 years old. That desire to remain a Red Sox player for life is what motivated him to sign a six-year, $120 million contract at the start of the 2019 season, opting out of free agency despite hiring agent Scott Boras, who rose to fame maximizing player salaries on the open market.
But in the media conference room at Yankee Stadium, Bogaerts seemed resigned that he and the Red Sox would not meet eye to eye on his contract ahead of Friday's season opener.
A lot of money comes off of Boston's payroll after the 2022 season, with designated hitter J.D. Martinez, Kiké Hernández and Nathan Eovaldi all scheduled to hit the open market. According to Red Sox front-office sources, the team's top priority is re-signing Rafael Devers to a contract, placing a higher urgency on keeping the 25-year-old third baseman's generational offensive talent ahead of retaining Bogaerts, who will turn 30 in October.
When asked about Bogaerts' future in Boston, one front-office official said the team remained open to bringing back the current leader of the Red Sox clubhouse but also stated that if Bogaerts has a strong 2022 season that drives up his price on the open market even further, it would lower the chances of the Red Sox signing him.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 17:49:23 GMT -5
"We are not in the business of signing 10-year deals for a lot of money, because those contracts mostly do not work out well for teams," said the front-office member.
The looming contract situation with Bogaerts influenced Boston's front office in its offseason approach. The team initially circled Corey Seager as its top free-agent target before his contract negotiations exceeded what the team felt comfortable extending to a player, according to team sources. Seager signed a 10-year, $325 million contract with the Rangers.
With Seager out of its price range, Boston set its sights on Trevor Story. The Red Sox signed Story to a six-year, $140 million contract this offseason after the front office identified the former Colorado Rockies infielder as one of the most undervalued players on the open market with the belief that other teams were overstating the impact of the transition away from Coors Field on Story's future offensive production. The team also projected that Story's spray chart would translate well to Fenway Park and the American League East, particularly the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.
The team signed Story content with the idea of him playing second base for the entirety of the contract, should Bogaerts stay in Boston, but felt comfortable moving him back to shortstop should Bogaerts leave.
The signing of Story marked the first free-agent signing with a long-term financial investment during chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's tenure with the team. According to Red Sox baseball operations sources, there was growing wave of discontent in some parts of the front office about Bloom's lack of willingness to invest significant amounts of money in free agency. The signing of Story calmed any front-office tension about the willingness of baseball operations leadership to invest in star players, sources said.
Since Boston tapped Bloom to run the baseball operations department, the team has shown a reluctance toward extending large amounts of money across long periods of time for one player. That baseball operations philosophy informed the team's decision to trade Mookie Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 million contract after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Critics among the Boston media and fans have pejoratively named Bloom's Red Sox as Tampa Bay East, referring to the Rays' unwillingness to invest significant amounts of money during Bloom's time with the team from 2005 through 2019.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 17:49:54 GMT -5
But according to front-office sources, the Red Sox are considering making Devers an exception to that philosophy. Because of Devers's youth compared to Bogaerts, the team sees a longer-term investment as a safer bet.
The 25-year-old is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2023 season, and the team is weighing the cost-benefit analysis of signing the third baseman to a long-term contract that would pay him along the lines of the game's richest third basemen, including Manny Machado, who signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with San Diego; Nolan Arenado, who signed an eight-year, $260 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals; and Anthony Rendon, who signed a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
In spring training, Devers said he and his agent talked with the team about an extension, but the two sides could not come to an agreement.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 7, 2022 17:58:36 GMT -5
I think it is important to take into consideration other players that are under team control. If Casas comes up this year and rakes and Bobby D takes a step forward and rakes then Raffy could become a valuable trade chip that could bring in a cost controlled ace. Something that the Sox do not have currently in the minors. One thing I think I can expect from Chaim is that he will do what he thinks is best for the team, both short and long term. The one thing I don't want to see is wasting an asset like Raffy, rather than just losing him to FA and the highest bidder why not pull a small market type trade that loads you up with high end prospects. That is the kind of forward thinking I want to see. Be open minded to making trades and signings that maximize both small market and large market ideals, don't just lose Raffy for nothing.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 7, 2022 17:59:47 GMT -5
Personally I'd be fine with the sox paying xandy among the highest paid SS. I wouldn't want them to come anywhere near the 10 years seager got however. I'd go 6 with a max of 7 if it can get the AAV down a fair chunk. 6 years 180 or 7 200 would seem the most I think they would/should go. Otherwise sorry to say as it stinks watching great home grown players leave but it'd be best to move on if he wants more.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 7, 2022 18:04:39 GMT -5
And for everyone who is just thinking they know what Raffy wants and that he is gone, you really have no more than an opinion based on nothing. At this point everything is just conjecture so stop being doom and gloom, it serves no purpose. Sport is supposed to be a fun outlet so why turn it into a doom and gloom downer.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2022 18:05:13 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/I think it's worth looking at the draft pick compensation we are likely to get under the new CBA for the guys who are FAs after this season. It's pretty modest. BA broke it down: "Clubs that go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value or a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value." X and Eo could bring as little as a third-round pick. If either gets a total payout of $150 million, we'd get a comp round B pick. We'll get nothing for JDM. It reinforces the importance of gauging early on whether you're going to be able to resign a guy and, if you can't, trading him for assets. I wonder whether the freeze on conversations during the lockout kept the RS from doing this with X. I like X, but if the RS can't reach a reasonable agreement with him, they should be exploring a trade.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 7, 2022 18:13:51 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/I think it's worth looking at the draft pick compensation we are likely to get under the new CBA for the guys who are FAs after this season. It's pretty modest. BA broke it down: "Clubs that go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value or a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value." X and Eo could bring as little as a third-round pick. If either gets a total payout of $150 million, we'd get a comp round B pick. We'll get nothing for JDM. It reinforces the importance of gauging early on whether you're going to be able to resign a guy and, if you can't, trading him for assets. I wonder whether the freeze on conversations during the lockout kept the RS from doing this with X. I like X, but if the RS can't reach a reasonable agreement with him, they should be exploring a trade. The only possibility I could see of xandy getting dealt is if the team is out of the race come July which with the added playoff team doesn't seem likely at all to me. I also think it's pretty much a given he signs for more than the 150 million total and if he doesn't get more than 150 total and the Red sox don't resign him then shame on the Red sox.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2022 18:24:32 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/I think it's worth looking at the draft pick compensation we are likely to get under the new CBA for the guys who are FAs after this season. It's pretty modest. BA broke it down: "Clubs that go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value or a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value." X and Eo could bring as little as a third-round pick. If either gets a total payout of $150 million, we'd get a comp round B pick. We'll get nothing for JDM. It reinforces the importance of gauging early on whether you're going to be able to resign a guy and, if you can't, trading him for assets. I wonder whether the freeze on conversations during the lockout kept the RS from doing this with X. I like X, but if the RS can't reach a reasonable agreement with him, they should be exploring a trade. The only possibility I could see of xandy getting dealt is if the team is out of the race come July which with the added playoff team doesn't seem likely at all to me. I also think it's pretty much a given he signs for more than the 150 million total and if he doesn't get more than 150 total and the Red sox don't resign him then shame on the Red sox. I agree on the trade deadline being the only time he could be traded and I agree it's unlikely that the RS won't be within reach of one of the WC spots. If you're at .500, you're probably still in the mix for a WC. He'd have a good chance at $150M but I don't think it's a sure thing. A lot will depend, of course, on his health and performance this year. I think other teams might be hesitant to pay him as a SS. Throw in a little offensive decline and a position switch and his WAR will be impacted.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 7, 2022 18:30:36 GMT -5
The only possibility I could see of xandy getting dealt is if the team is out of the race come July which with the added playoff team doesn't seem likely at all to me. I also think it's pretty much a given he signs for more than the 150 million total and if he doesn't get more than 150 total and the Red sox don't resign him then shame on the Red sox. I agree on the trade deadline being the only time he could be traded and I agree it's unlikely that the RS won't be within reach of one of the WC spots. If you're at .500, you're probably still in the mix for a WC. He'd have a good chance at $150M but I don't think it's a sure thing. A lot will depend, of course, on his health and performance this year. I think other teams might be hesitant to pay him as a SS. Throw in a little offensive decline and a position switch and his WAR will be impacted. We'll see but if he gets less than 150 total in a deal barring some horrific injury or completely terrible decline and the Red sox don't sign him I'll be pretty pissed as a fan.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 7, 2022 18:38:21 GMT -5
If Bogaerts is looking for $35 million a year then his heart is set on reaching free agency. Good for him, he's earned it.
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