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4/22-4/24 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 24, 2022 20:31:47 GMT -5
the fact we have 3 everyday players hitting under .200 still is very disturbing. Matched in our division by only... [checks notes]... the Rays, Orioles, and Yankees.
Actually, the Yankees have 4 and the Rays have 5. (The Jays have 4 under .220.)
Ok and we have 1 guy hitting over 300. How about them? We’re built different we can’t afford to have 3 guys hitting under .200.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 24, 2022 21:43:29 GMT -5
I just want to reiterate that I think the argument that Bobby Dalbec is better than this is very strong and it is not mutually exclusive from the argument that Triston Casas is better than he is. Dalbec's career line is .235/.300/.488 in 601 career plate appearances. That's more predictive than his OPS this year through 56 PA as well as his xwOBA this year through 56 PA. It's an okay major leaguer, someone who you're absolutely fine playing when he's cheap and alternatives are expensive. The thing is, though, the alternative in this case is equally cheap and potentially a lot better. If you believe, as I do, that Triston Casas is ready, then Dalbec shouldn't stand in his way. If he'd played well this year it would make it a tougher call, but he hasn't.
I'll also note that Dalbec had a particularly bad game today that's going to make his other predictive stats look a lot worse, which is the trouble with putting stock into them after 52 PA: 16 pitches 6 swinging strikes 3 looking strikes 4 balls 2 fouls 1 ball in play
His whiff rate is among the bottom 25 in the majors. He's striking out a little less but he's gotten lucky in terms of translating whiffs into strikeouts, which is going to undercut some of the difference between his batted ball expectancy vs. results. Basically, moving forward it would be reasonable to expect that fewer of his batted balls find gloves but that more of his whiffs result in Ks.
-----
I do agree with the masses that there's a level of arbitrariness in the "last 200 plate appearances" endpoint. He was extraordinary for about six weeks from early August to mid-September last year. In his last 89 plate appearances, including the playoffs, he's at .118/.157/.259 with 3 homers, 3 walks, and 31 strikeouts. From the start of the year through July, he was arguably the worst player in baseball. For six weeks, he was among the best hitters. Since then, he's been among the worst.
I think the "he's not a major leaguer" stuff goes too far, but he's added up to a slightly-above-replacement-level guy and there's a player in Triple-A who is ready with a chance to be much more than that.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 25, 2022 0:10:31 GMT -5
Upgrading from Bobby Dalbec has nothing to do with whether he's been lucky or whether he's The Problem and everything to do with whether Triston Casas is better right now. Upgrading the outfield and the bullpen is a bigger need than upgrading first base, but the marginal upgrade to first base is sitting about 100 miles from where they start tomorrow's series. The benefit of moving to Casas is that it probably gives Dalbec the best possible role for him: mash-tastic right-handed bat off the bench who can spell the two left-handed-hitting corner infielders and some of the other guys on the team who are not in the lineup for their bats. Counterpoint: Dalbec is probably not well-served in his development by sitting on the bench and starting 25% of our games. If you think he has a shot at being an average to slightly above-average major league regular, burning his service clock while sitting him isn’t helping him or the team long-term. Give him another month or two. Casas isn’t going anywhere, and he’s not a lock to be immediately better anyway.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,169
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Post by cdj on Apr 25, 2022 6:31:10 GMT -5
Upgrading from Bobby Dalbec has nothing to do with whether he's been lucky or whether he's The Problem and everything to do with whether Triston Casas is better right now. Upgrading the outfield and the bullpen is a bigger need than upgrading first base, but the marginal upgrade to first base is sitting about 100 miles from where they start tomorrow's series. The benefit of moving to Casas is that it probably gives Dalbec the best possible role for him: mash-tastic right-handed bat off the bench who can spell the two left-handed-hitting corner infielders and some of the other guys on the team who are not in the lineup for their bats. Counterpoint: Dalbec is probably not well-served in his development by sitting on the bench and starting 25% of our games. If you think he has a shot at being an average to slightly above-average major league regular, burning his service clock while sitting him isn’t helping him or the team long-term. Give him another month or two. Casas isn’t going anywhere, and he’s not a lock to be immediately better anyway. double Counterpoint: we’re not well served with him stranding 1500 baserunners 3 weeks into the season
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Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2022 7:53:32 GMT -5
I just want to reiterate that I think the argument that Bobby Dalbec is better than this is very strong and it is not mutually exclusive from the argument that Triston Casas is better than he is. Dalbec's career line is .235/.300/.488 in 601 career plate appearances. That's more predictive than his OPS this year through 56 PA as well as his xwOBA this year through 56 PA. It's an okay major leaguer, someone who you're absolutely fine playing when he's cheap and alternatives are expensive. The thing is, though, the alternative in this case is equally cheap and potentially a lot better. If you believe, as I do, that Triston Casas is ready, then Dalbec shouldn't stand in his way. If he'd played well this year it would make it a tougher call, but he hasn't. I'll also note that Dalbec had a particularly bad game today that's going to make his other predictive stats look a lot worse, which is the trouble with putting stock into them after 52 PA: 16 pitches 6 swinging strikes 3 looking strikes 4 balls 2 fouls 1 ball in play His whiff rate is among the bottom 25 in the majors. He's striking out a little less but he's gotten lucky in terms of translating whiffs into strikeouts, which is going to undercut some of the difference between his batted ball expectancy vs. results. Basically, moving forward it would be reasonable to expect that fewer of his batted balls find gloves but that more of his whiffs result in Ks. ----- I do agree with the masses that there's a level of arbitrariness in the "last 200 plate appearances" endpoint. He was extraordinary for about six weeks from early August to mid-September last year. In his last 89 plate appearances, including the playoffs, he's at .118/.157/.259 with 3 homers, 3 walks, and 31 strikeouts. From the start of the year through July, he was arguably the worst player in baseball. For six weeks, he was among the best hitters. Since then, he's been among the worst. I think the "he's not a major leaguer" stuff goes too far, but he's added up to a slightly-above-replacement-level guy and there's a player in Triple-A who is ready with a chance to be much more than that. I guess I was unclear when I made this point, but I don't deny it's a cherry-picked endpoint. The point is that a guy who has looked like literally the best hitter in baseball for a significant stretch within his first 600 PAs in the major leagues is a guy I'd like to give a bit more leash to.
Also that six-week stretch was not his only hot streak. At three separate points before that in 2021 he had 15-game stretches where his wRC+ went above 120, and he was also at that level for almost all of 2020.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 25, 2022 8:19:03 GMT -5
Upgrading from Bobby Dalbec has nothing to do with whether he's been lucky or whether he's The Problem and everything to do with whether Triston Casas is better right now. Upgrading the outfield and the bullpen is a bigger need than upgrading first base, but the marginal upgrade to first base is sitting about 100 miles from where they start tomorrow's series. The benefit of moving to Casas is that it probably gives Dalbec the best possible role for him: mash-tastic right-handed bat off the bench who can spell the two left-handed-hitting corner infielders and some of the other guys on the team who are not in the lineup for their bats. Counterpoint: Dalbec is probably not well-served in his development by sitting on the bench and starting 25% of our games. If you think he has a shot at being an average to slightly above-average major league regular, burning his service clock while sitting him isn’t helping him or the team long-term. Give him another month or two. Casas isn’t going anywhere, and he’s not a lock to be immediately better anyway. He's 27 and he's been this (meaning prone to extreme streaks of hot or cold) pretty much his entire professional career, when are people going to stop assuming that he's "developing" and understand that, for both the good and the bad, this is just who he is?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 9:09:08 GMT -5
I think where I fall is that he shouldn't be the one holding Casas back, but I also don't want him to be the only person who loses at-bats because Casas comes up, because I think there's much better offensive upside there than with Arroyo and JBJ. That said, there is also considerable downside.
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Post by manfred on Apr 25, 2022 9:14:48 GMT -5
I think where I fall is that he shouldn't be the one holding Casas back, but I also don't want him to be the only person who loses at-bats because Casas comes up, because I think there's much better offensive upside there than with Arroyo and JBJ. That said, there is also considerable downside. How would you configure that? Dalbec in the OF? Do you think he can do that? I don’t mean long term — in, say, a month? Or would you put JDM out there, DH Dalbec? I don’t disagree offensively, I’m just curious about how you envision it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 9:50:10 GMT -5
I think where I fall is that he shouldn't be the one holding Casas back, but I also don't want him to be the only person who loses at-bats because Casas comes up, because I think there's much better offensive upside there than with Arroyo and JBJ. That said, there is also considerable downside. How would you configure that? Dalbec in the OF? Do you think he can do that? I don’t mean long term — in, say, a month? Or would you put JDM out there, DH Dalbec? I don’t disagree offensively, I’m just curious about how you envision it. I don't know, and that's the tough part. And as the roster is currently configured, there is absolutely no reason to give him run in the outfield (to have Shaw play first? Vazquez? No.), so it's tough to say whether they're comfortable with him out there. I'd think about it though, not knowing really how he's looked to them in workouts. It's not as easy as just taking a guy and putting him out there. Brandon Howlett was bad enough in the outfield in Portland that it already looks like they've pulled the plug on that now that Granberg is back (as the everyday center fielder, which... yikes).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 9:58:50 GMT -5
FWIW, as of May 1 last year, Renfroe was hitting .167/.235/.250 and we were all ready to DFA him. Now, I'm not saying everyone who isn't hitting right now will definitely turn it around like he did, but I'm just saying, patience is warranted.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2022 9:59:29 GMT -5
He'd be a right-handed power bat on a team with a left-handed third baseman (who maybe should DH sometimes), a left-handed rookie first baseman, and a left-handed right fielder who can't really hit. I feel like it wouldn't be particularly hard to give him two starts plus 2-3 more pinch hitting opportunities a week.
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Post by manfred on Apr 25, 2022 10:12:36 GMT -5
The thing about Dalbec I don’t get is his K rate is not that high… so this seems like the best-case scenario described in his prospect write-up. But… there he is described as a ceiling average hit tool with ~30 home runs. A Dalbec on pace for 10 HRs is not a good player. But has he had to make an adjustment that undermines his power?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 25, 2022 10:44:35 GMT -5
Counterpoint: Dalbec is probably not well-served in his development by sitting on the bench and starting 25% of our games. If you think he has a shot at being an average to slightly above-average major league regular, burning his service clock while sitting him isn’t helping him or the team long-term. Give him another month or two. Casas isn’t going anywhere, and he’s not a lock to be immediately better anyway. double Counterpoint: we’re not well served with him stranding 1500 baserunners 3 weeks into the season Double-plus counterpoint: I wonder if having Bobby spend a little extra time in the cage with coaches wouldn't be just what the doctor ordered. Play a day, work a day or two, play another day, see if something sticks, repeat, until it's clear that he's figured some things out. Then do what you can to find him a spot in the field.
In spring training, AC talked about trying Bobby at 2B and in the OF, which is a pretty big tell on what they thought about Casas at that time and Casas has done nothing to torpedo that in the interim.
If Bobby does find something that gets him back to last August (poems about hitting from Schwarber?) and Casas is already up, then not having an obvious position for Dalbec is a good problem to have. Almost any injury to a starter would open up a spot and if there's still a logjam July, maybe you trade him for pitching.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 25, 2022 11:11:40 GMT -5
On Dalbec I can't find the numbers now but I remember there was a long stretch last year where if a fastball was above 95 he just was not going to hit it. Did he ever resolve that? If not it makes his platoon fit a little tougher since the PH thing wouldn't really work
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 25, 2022 11:16:37 GMT -5
Overall I agree with the crowd that thinks Casas is probably better right now than Dalbec. Is he better enough to make it worth bringing him up right now, costing them a year of control and potentially damaging Dalbec's ability to figure out if he can be more than what he looks like and losing trade leverage if they did want to trade Bobby? I personally don't think so, as excited as I am to get Casas up.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 25, 2022 11:18:18 GMT -5
On Dalbec I can't find the numbers now but I remember there was a long stretch last year where if a fastball was above 95 he just was not going to hit it. Did he ever resolve that? If not it makes his platoon fit a little tougher since the PH thing wouldn't really work I remember that too but I don't know where to find that info. I also recall that at the beginning of last season he was awful vs. RHP and very good vs. LHP and that evened out when he got hot.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2022 11:26:20 GMT -5
Not even that bad by the numbers, but #1 and #2 were both such howlers, and in practice the first one alone was worth like a two-run swing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 11:34:52 GMT -5
On Dalbec I can't find the numbers now but I remember there was a long stretch last year where if a fastball was above 95 he just was not going to hit it. Did he ever resolve that? If not it makes his platoon fit a little tougher since the PH thing wouldn't really work Unsure on velo. I do know the season is young enough that his line against fastballs dropped to .226/.323/.355 since it was very good when I posted a few days ago, so it's probably too soon to take much of anything from vs.-pitch numbers. He is hitting the ball very hard when he hits it (as always) but had a brutally high whiff rate (as always). It seems like he is both getting unlucky on balls in play and lucky in that he's not striking out a ton despite the same whiff rate he's always had and a slightly increased chase rate.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2022 11:45:18 GMT -5
On Dalbec I can't find the numbers now but I remember there was a long stretch last year where if a fastball was above 95 he just was not going to hit it. Did he ever resolve that? If not it makes his platoon fit a little tougher since the PH thing wouldn't really work Unsure on velo. I do know the season is young enough that his line against fastballs dropped to .226/.323/.355 since it was very good when I posted a few days ago, so it's probably too soon to take much of anything from vs.-pitch numbers. He is hitting the ball very hard when he hits it (as always) but had a brutally high whiff rate (as always). It seems like he is both getting unlucky on balls in play and lucky in that he's not striking out a ton despite the same whiff rate he's always had and a slightly increased chase rate. I think you made a good point earlier about his getting under a few balls. If, say, two of his flyouts had been homers instead his line would be like .192/.250/.423, which would actually be pretty good considering the .200 BABIP.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,169
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Post by cdj on Apr 25, 2022 12:40:01 GMT -5
Unsure on velo. I do know the season is young enough that his line against fastballs dropped to .226/.323/.355 since it was very good when I posted a few days ago, so it's probably too soon to take much of anything from vs.-pitch numbers. He is hitting the ball very hard when he hits it (as always) but had a brutally high whiff rate (as always). It seems like he is both getting unlucky on balls in play and lucky in that he's not striking out a ton despite the same whiff rate he's always had and a slightly increased chase rate. I think you made a good point earlier about his getting under a few balls. If, say, two of his flyouts had been homers instead his line would be like .192/.250/.423, which would actually be pretty good considering the .200 BABIP. Could also be the deadened ball impacting him as was mentioned in that Deal Ball Era thread. That would adversely impact him more than most since a good deal of his value is in the long ball
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 13:21:56 GMT -5
I think you made a good point earlier about his getting under a few balls. If, say, two of his flyouts had been homers instead his line would be like .192/.250/.423, which would actually be pretty good considering the .200 BABIP. Could also be the deadened ball impacting him as was mentioned in that Deal Ball Era thread. That would adversely impact him more than most since a good deal of his value is in the long ball I'd actually argue that he'd be less impacted as a guy with serious pop who croaks the ball, than someone with only slightly above-average raw power.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2022 14:18:05 GMT -5
Could also be the deadened ball impacting him as was mentioned in that Deal Ball Era thread. That would adversely impact him more than most since a good deal of his value is in the long ball I'd actually argue that he'd be less impacted as a guy with serious pop who croaks the ball, than someone with only slightly above-average raw power. I've gone back and forth on this, too. Dalbec definitely loses fewer homers to a deadened baseball, but because so much of his value has been tied up in those homers, each one he loses impacts his value more. Like, Dalbec at 85% power might be more likely to fall below replacement level than another dude with a more rounded game who is only at 70% of his power numbers. For example, both Dalbec and Ian Happ hit 25 homers last year, and both were kind of in that above replacement but below average range. But I think Happ hold more of that value with 18 homers than Dalbec does with 22, if that makes sense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2022 15:55:53 GMT -5
I'd actually argue that he'd be less impacted as a guy with serious pop who croaks the ball, than someone with only slightly above-average raw power. I've gone back and forth on this, too. Dalbec definitely loses fewer homers to a deadened baseball, but because so much of his value has been tied up in those homers, each one he loses impacts his value more. Like, Dalbec at 85% power might be more likely to fall below replacement level than another dude with a more rounded game who is only at 70% of his power numbers. For example, both Dalbec and Ian Happ hit 25 homers last year, and both were kind of in that above replacement but below average range. But I think Happ hold more of that value with 18 homers than Dalbec does with 22, if that makes sense. Good points. To me it's this though: When Dalbec is hitting, if you throw him a rock, it won't matter, it's probably going for extra bases. When Dalbec is not hitting, if you throw him an IncrediBall, it won't matter because he's not going to hit it anyway.
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