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4/8-4/11 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2013 9:22:45 GMT -5
Eh, strikeout rates in general are up since 1992 (personal hypothesis: increased emphasis on plate discipline and taking walks means deeper counts and less of an emphasis on making contact/empty batting averages), so the magnitude of the change is perhaps exaggerated, but yeah, it's the era of the late-inning pitcher.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2013 9:32:59 GMT -5
Eh, strikeout rates in general are up since 1992 (personal hypothesis: increased emphasis on plate discipline and taking walks means deeper counts and less of an emphasis on making contact/empty batting averages), so the magnitude of the change is perhaps exaggerated, but yeah, it's the era of the late-inning pitcher. I added a bit to my original post, to the effect that I'm not actually sure what is going on. It certainly SEEMS like every team in the league is rolling out two unhittable relievers for the 8th and 9th, but as always, relief pitching can be tricky to judge statistically... I will investigate this more later.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 11, 2013 10:07:32 GMT -5
A wild closer and a poor defensive catcher. I'm hoping for a lot of 4 run leads.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 11, 2013 10:45:49 GMT -5
Spent a little time thinking about this, and here's a little of what I came up with.
During spring training, the Sox played the Pirates and the TV guys swapped announcers for a bit. I remember someone on the board saying that didn't produce anything useful. I should have piped up at the time and thought about doing so, but I decided not to nitpick. So I'll nitpick now instead. I heard some very useful stuff from a guy who watched Hanrahan all of last year. He made the point that Hanrahan's two pitch mix plays up only if he has control of the heat. He quickly sets people up with that, and then knocks them down with a split-finger that is usually out of the zone, but which looks very much like the fastball out of his hand. If the control is off and he doesn't get the count in his favor it becomes much harder for him. That can happen batter after batter, which we got a taste of that last night. These are pro hitters and they'll do the autopsy on your corpse real fast as others have pointed out.
That's a very useful insight, and it answered questions I had after watching both the yin and the yang last season. A few Pirate games ended up on television because they actually looked like they might make it to the playoffs for a while. The guy was all over the map, and sometimes off of it when his command failed him. The analysis during spring training, by the Pirate broadcaster, was a very good piece of work.
I can't believe the Sox don't know this, and I'm encouraged because they actually did pull Hanrahan last night. It was after the damage had been done but I think it was also a message: we do have other options here ninth inning or not. It does bring up the bigger question, mentioned by others, about high-leverage situations and having the willingness to use everyone you have to get the job done, regardless of some arbitrary label such as proven closer. The biggest question of all is whether someone with as flammable a mix as this should get that label on a permanent basis.
Bailey, the diplomat, waits in the wings. It will be hard for Hanrahan to piss and moan if he doesn't get all the ninth inning calls. He's going to have to perform or he'll be part of a larger mix of options. I think that's where this is headed.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 11, 2013 10:59:30 GMT -5
You sure he'd have come out all that much sooner though? He faced seven batters, and after the first three, he'd only given up a solo shot to make it a one-run game and gotten two outs. The next batter was Flaherty's single and two walks. I'd give you that maybe he wouldn't have faced Machado, and that if Miller were ready, MAYBE he wouldn't have faced McLouth, but it's not like he gave up seven hits or something. Only way he'd have come out all that much sooner is that if we're also altering the scenario such that Miller was ready from the beginning of the inning or something. But if, say, Bailey had struggled in the 8th, I'm not sure he'd have faced fewer hitters. 100% confidence. Complete surety. Metaphysical certitude. OK, maybe not quite that sure ... but I do think he would've been pulled. It's not just the hits, the walks are even more evidence that a guy's off that day. Your point about Miller helps my point, actually. Most managers have multiple relievers getting going in the 6th-7th because the culture is to play matchups and to specialize your relievers, so Miller would've been warming up just as a matter of course as soon as Hanrahan showed any signs of struggling at all. Sure, part of that is that usually those guys aren't as good as the guys who come later, but it's also just inherent in the definition of a "closer." The name is all about closing out the game, and they rarely get pulled until they completely blow the lead. Thinking this through a little more, tho, that's actually one benefit of closers that I wasn't considering: there's a cost to warming a guy up, and by just turning the game over to one guy and not being very proactive when he gets in trouble, you can avoid warming people unnecessarily and burning out arms.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 11:10:46 GMT -5
No matter what the situation is, for now, I have very little confidence in Hanrahan to get those last three outs. I have watched him pitch and even though he has high heat, his lack of control of his breaking ball and the lack of a good off-speed pitch limit his effectiveness. Closers should not be giving up five runs in one inning, no matter what the situation is. One more bad outing like this, and I would give the closing gig to Bailey or Tazawa.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 11, 2013 11:32:02 GMT -5
Take a small market closer with obvious control deficiencies and throw him into a high pressure, big market situation and you are likely to have some games like last night. Maybe even a lot of them.
I'm a patient guy but when teams like Baltimore can just set there on dead red fastballs and wait for him to groove it, it is not an ideal scenario. He's going to walk people and give up dingers in Fenway. And Toronto. And Yankee stadium.
I know it shows a lack of faith but I would immediately slot Bailey at closer and make Hanrahan a 6th or 7th inning guy. And it's not from a SSS perspective of one game. It was projectable from the start.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 11, 2013 12:50:31 GMT -5
Well, I guess this is serving as the closer controversy thread.
Yesterday was my worst Joel Hanrahan fears coming true. His control is spotty at best. Last year he gave up 8 homers in 59 innings. A guy prone to giving up HRs and walking a batter every two innings is not a guy I would want pitching the 9th inning.
I realize that the 6th or 7th inning could turn out to be the most important inning of the game, but you never really know that until AFTER the game has been completed. To me blowing a lead in the 6th or 7th inning is nowhere near as devastating as blowing a lead in the 9th inning. You have a lot less outs to work with (if any at all) to come back from a blown 9th inning lead.
Hanrahan reminds me way too much of Heathcliff Slocum or Mark Clear (anybody here remember these two maalox moment closers?), two closers the Sox have had in the past 30 years who were constantly falling behind hitters, going 3-2 on just about every batter, and making the 9th inning as nerve wracking as possible.
I hope Farrell doesn't stick with him too long. He has better options. Uehara has been fantastic. Tazawa last year was fantastic and he'd be a good candidate as well. The obvious candidate is Bailey and I'd look at him, too, although his control has been off a hair as well.
And just to be clear, this is not a rant based on one game. All closers have bad games, although most don't anger the FIP gods the way Hanrahan did: 2 HRs and 2 BBs to go along with a wild pitch and a hit given up to a guy with an OPS of .000 for the season.
Honestly, the wildness has been my biggest concern with Hanrahan altogether. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Melancon pitched much better for Pitt than Hanrahan does for Boston.
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Post by hammerhead on Apr 11, 2013 13:13:34 GMT -5
I think we'd have a lot of the same worries with Bailey as our closer. He has had his fair share of control issues as well and there already have been occasions where he has escaped by the skin of his teeth. Bailey had a scoreless inning last night, but his mechanics looked pretty out of whack. I was left wondering if he was hurt, he looked that uncomfortable out there.
I think you need to give Hanrahan a couple more opportunities and see if he can right the ship. I have seen flashes of how dominant Hanrahan can be already and I think it's silly to lose sight of that because of one shitstorm.
Farrell has already said that he will not use Uehara on back to back days, so if you look at it from the aspect of Bailey being more of the same, Uehara not durable etc.etc. suddenly you aren't left with a lot of great options.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 11, 2013 13:54:59 GMT -5
Aceves has given up 34 earned runs in his last 35 1/3 innings.
Ben Cherrington: "Yeah, let's start him against the Orioles over, say, Mortensen or Webster. That's the ticket."
And so it goes...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2013 14:16:29 GMT -5
I think you need to give Hanrahan a couple more opportunities and see if he can right the ship. I have seen flashes of how dominant Hanrahan can be already and I think it's silly to lose sight of that because of one shitstorm.Again, it's not like Hanrahan just arrived in a spaceship two months ago. He's got a long history of terrible control. And by the way, that was in the NL central. Think those issues are going to play better in the AL East?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2013 14:21:04 GMT -5
A wild closer and a poor defensive catcher. I'm hoping for a lot of 4 run leads. Well, you could sub in David Ross... oh wait, dinosaurs.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 11, 2013 14:27:10 GMT -5
A wild closer and a poor defensive catcher. I'm hoping for a lot of 4 run leads. Well, you could sub in David Ross... oh wait, dinosaurs. and what if ROss gets injured? you stick Napoli and his "hip" behind the plate?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2013 14:30:36 GMT -5
and what if ROss gets injured? you stick Napoli and his "hip" behind the plate? I hate this logic. How often do MLB catchers have to leave a game due to injury? It's very rare. Meanwhile they give away outs every single night while qualified pinch hitters help keep the bench warm.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 11, 2013 14:36:56 GMT -5
Well, you could sub in David Ross... oh wait, dinosaurs. and what if ROss gets injured? you stick Napoli and his "hip" behind the plate? On the off chance Ross got hurt, the Red Sox have one of the better qualified emergency catchers in the game.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 11, 2013 15:01:58 GMT -5
Hanrahan not available tonight after tossing 31 pitches last night. Bailey will likely be tonight's closer and then we hopefully have a competition going forward. Never was impressed with Hanrahan as closers with poor control don't last long.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 11, 2013 15:03:10 GMT -5
Well, you could sub in David Ross... oh wait, dinosaurs. and what if ROss gets injured? you stick Napoli and his "hip" behind the plate? Yes. If they do it 100 times, he might be needed once.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 11, 2013 15:19:41 GMT -5
If Ross gets hurt I bring up Butler and let the legend begin.
I drive his bandwagon too. Not saying he's Johnny Bench but his defense is top shelf and I think he would generate enough OBP to legitimize a starting job (if you can deal with a catcher who has, say, .340 obp and all of 8-10 Hrs a year). He may be a career back-up but that is really what Ross is at this point.
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Post by bjb406 on Apr 11, 2013 17:47:16 GMT -5
I'm not going to enjoy watching Aceves. Why do the red sox always think proven bad is better than unproven?
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 11, 2013 17:48:42 GMT -5
and what if ROss gets injured? you stick Napoli and his "hip" behind the plate? Yes. If they do it 100 times, he might be needed once. This. I can't stand the major concern people express over such situations. Napoli could catch quite a few games, let alone part of one in an emergency, without it being a huge issue. Sox running out the same lineup as last night, with our boy Aceves. I assume we'll need some big contributions from the bullpen, including maybe multiple innings from Mortenson and a closing chance by Bailey depending on how tight the game is. I'm actually really interested to see how Aceves fairs starting. In 2011, he seemed untouchable in nearly every role in the bullpen, but obviously he's lost a significant amount of that effectiveness. Like others have mentioned on here, if he can't perform spot starts adequatley, he really doesn't have much value on our team anymore. Man, would I love to have that 2011-Alfredo again. Luckily, unlike then, our bullpen isn't milking its life off such a need.
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Post by bsout2 on Apr 11, 2013 18:05:44 GMT -5
I don't understand why everyone is upset with Aceves starting. Has he been bad lately? Yes, he has been really bad. This is his chance and if he stinks he will be gone. With Lackey, Morales, and Breslow coming back, Aceves has to pitch good or he is gone. Its a win win situation.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 11, 2013 18:15:55 GMT -5
So the OF decided to play defense tonight, that's a positive. Where as bad as possible in the 1st inning last night, perfect tonight
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 11, 2013 18:31:48 GMT -5
You don't groove a 3-0 fastball right down the middle to a dead HR fastball hitter who's been hitting them left and right
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 11, 2013 18:36:03 GMT -5
This is the Chris Davis I was expecting when I kept him over Votto in my fantasy league like 5 years ago.
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Post by bsout2 on Apr 11, 2013 18:40:35 GMT -5
This is the Chris Davis I was expecting when I kept him over Votto in my fantasy league like 5 years ago. Look at the bright side. You run a fantasy baseball team. The Texas Rangers operate a MLB team that just lost Hamilton. Im sure they would love to have Davis back.
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