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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 17:13:07 GMT -5
"In general" = don't assume any specific player will be dealt.
I left out "too soon to tell" on purpose. If we kill it between now and then, you can change your vote at any time (and you might want to note that below!).
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 17:34:34 GMT -5
I think we could see a hybrid, like the Nomar trade. You trade a guy that is “selling,” in a sense, but also get guys who might help now. (In this instance, maybe not in one trade like that one).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2022 17:38:41 GMT -5
If Chris Sale were healthy and effective or if Brayan Bello looked like a guy ready to come up and be one of four post-season starters or if I had much faith that James Paxton was healthy or that Rich Hill will come back strong, I'd feel better about the rotation and wouldn't think they'd need a guy I'd want to put up as a fourth starter, but I don't think that's the case.
I still think they need a closer and have the ability to allow Houck to go multiple innings rather than be a one inning guy.
If Tristan Casas was near ready I wouldn't think they'd necessarily need a 1b but he's just getting back from an injury.
If Kiké Hernandez was healthy and performing like the guy he was in the second half I wouldn't think they necessarily need a RF or CF if that places Duran in RF or LF with Verdugo going to RF (not that any of that is ideal).
But all of these things are trending against them and it amounts to a lot of needs.
I do think the Sox, as is, are still capable of making the 3rd wild card, which as I've stated before, would be most advantageous for them, simply because they would avoid an AL East team until the ALCS as they'd have to go through Minnesota and Houston (not that I'd think they'd get past Houston).
Of course that's no sure thing. Seattle is blazing hot and a better team than the won that won 90 last year, but perhaps the Sox can pass them - it's certainly not hopeless at this point, although if 2 games behind becomes 5, it becomes dicier, especially if the White Sox, who are at .500 start playing better.
I think it will raise a lot of red flags if the Sox are within 5 games of the playoffs and sell. They'll take a huge beating in the press and throughout baseball. It's not like them giving up in Aug 2012 with that Nick Punto deal. This would be a team still in the hunt.
So I don't think they will deal away anybody.
I think they'll make small moves to try to improve the team without giving up much more than some minor league depth type players. To that end, they'll snag a 1b, maybe one better than Dominic Smith. They'll probably get an OF and another Hansel Robles type for the bullpen.
Of course if they're in the situation they need to sell and they don't (assuming they can get the prices they want to extract) then it would be unwise. The worst thing that happens to this team (other than losing to the Yankees in the playoffs and watching NY win the series) would be to miss the playoffs altogether and watch Xander walk away for nothing, along with JDM, and Eovaldi and others and get absolutely nothing out of it.
It's crazy that I'm typing this. A few weeks ago I thought it would be crazy to sell, but if you can't envision the best version of this team having a legit shot in October, what's the point? The best version of this team had a dominant and healthy Chris Sale, but even if that doesn't happen, the other alternatives look like they're drying up as well.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2022 18:26:30 GMT -5
I am rooting for a sale. It's not that huge a payoff to me to make the playoffs and then they'd still be a 30-1 underdog to win the world series when the first game starts. And as of right now we're only about 40% to make the playoffs.
We could add a ton of talent by August 2nd. The payoff for selling is abnormally large this year. Not selling and then missing the playoffs would be a really disastrous result in my view.
If they do go for it, then I still don't want them to buy unless it costs them very little. I think it only makes sense to put the chips in the middle when you have a shot at top 2 seed and a bye.
I'm worried that their ownership stake in NESN will make it difficult for them to sell because they will be very sensitive to television ratings for the rest of the season. If they had a long term deal with a RSN and the money was locked in, then it would be easier to sell.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,020 
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Post by cdj on Jul 21, 2022 18:29:34 GMT -5
Selective buying and selling
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 21, 2022 19:59:16 GMT -5
Might want to check the spelling of the title unless it’s a clever pun
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2022 20:28:35 GMT -5
I also believe they'll take the mixed approach, but it could change if they continue to bomb post ASB.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2022 20:55:23 GMT -5
All for buying, but they may be deal some guys off the MLB roster (Dalbec, JBJ, Franchy pick a reliever not named Houck, Whitlock or Schrieber) if they can find takers and better replacements.
Just don’t buy high on anyone not named Soto, Ohtani or Trout - yes, still wondering if either of those guys will be on the block. LAA looking at another high draft pick but their farm is still really, really bare. Ohtani will not sign back up for that so they should sell him or convince him to stay, give him a Sheik’s ransom and get all you can for Trout, who still has 4-6 good years left. At least.
But yes, get a two of a first baseman, outfielder and, if not a solid reliever, and maybe a 3/4 starter (or better)with some control. And, yes, I mean a deal like packaging Bello and Yorke for Pablo Lopez.
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 21:36:28 GMT -5
All for buying, but they may be deal some guys off the MLB roster (Dalbec, JBJ, Franchy pick a reliever not named Houck, Whitlock or Schrieber) if they can find takers and better replacements. Just don’t buy high on anyone not named Soto, Ohtani or Trout - yes, still wondering if either of those guys will be on the block. LAA looking at another high draft pick but their farm is still really, really bare. Ohtani will not sign back up for that so they should sell him or convince him to stay, give him a Sheik’s ransom and get all you can for Trout, who still has 4-6 good years left. At least. But yes, get a two of a first baseman, outfielder and, if not a solid reliever, and maybe a 3/4 starter (or better)with some control. And, yes, I mean a deal like packaging Bello and Yorke for Pablo Lopez. Oh man… you package Diekman, Dalbec, and Franchy, you are closing on Soto! |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 21, 2022 23:01:07 GMT -5
Sell any free agents that can't be signed to new deals ... reload & make a run at a wildcard spot.
As the Mets always said, "we'll be playing meaningful baseball in September."
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Post by keninten on Jul 21, 2022 23:56:09 GMT -5
I`d like to see them start working on next year and beyond. Punt a half season and get the painful part behind us. We could be debating this again and again.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 22, 2022 0:05:09 GMT -5
How possible is it to sell Eovaldi, JD, Hernandez, Wacha, Hill, and Strahm for players who can contribute THIS year (and controllable for at least next) while agreeing to re-sign Vazquez, X (who both in theory or in words have stated they want to stay). It is like buying back a put option on a stock and selling one further out and still making money- - can be done, but it is not easy.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 22, 2022 0:12:28 GMT -5
I`d like to see them start working on next year and beyond. Punt a half season and get the painful part behind us. We could be debating this again and again. I totally agree with what you are saying as far as making next season more successful. (The rest of this year is not half a season. It is only 1/3 of a season….picking nits). The best way to make next year more successful would be to: 1) give as much experience to Bello, Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Casas, Duran, Downs,…..as they can, 2) trade the veterans on expiring contracts who will not re-sign at an acceptable price. As I just stated in the prior post, it is hard to trade a rental for a player who can add value this year and is controllable for several years to come (then why would the team trade them to the Red Sox and not just keep the player themselves)? |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Jul 22, 2022 0:43:56 GMT -5
I’m on the fence, with my biggest issue right now is that if they don’t sell they might be stuck in purgatory where they make the playoffs, but are clearly worse than the top tier.
The “pipeline” wether it’s the farm or free agency, is dry. We could lose 2 of our 3 good hitters this offseason with Casas being our only hope of replacement. I just can’t see how he’s enough. And Turner, Swanson, and Correa are all bets on dWAR which we already have covered with Story.
So if this year and next year look like potential playoff runs, but lagging behind NYY, HOU, and LAD, should they just reboot and try to get a jump on 2024? It sucks to commit to that from a fans perspective, but come 2024 will we be happy to have been pretenders for the last few years?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2022 4:36:23 GMT -5
Very interesting ... right now we're 23 to 16 in favor of selling, but 10 to 29 in thinking the Sox will do that.
Very quick and dirty wild card standings, adjusted for divisional strength:
TB 3.5
Tor 2
Bos 0
Bal -1.5
Sea -2
Cle -6.5
CWS 6.5
Right now we have a 4.8 win handicap versus the Mariners and a 6.3 win handicap versus the Guardians.
.600 AL East outside the division .477 West .442 Central
We've played 57% of the season, but we have half of our divisional games left.
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Post by costpet on Jul 22, 2022 7:13:59 GMT -5
SELL SELL SELL
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Post by patford on Jul 22, 2022 8:04:35 GMT -5
Way too many injuries to seriously compete. The team should look to sell.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jul 22, 2022 8:18:24 GMT -5
Looks like Dominic Smith, who I use to be very high on. Perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs.
You sellers keep saying (there's a ton we could get back) I'm not seeing it. Teams don't pony up top prospects unless its for an elite player these days.
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Post by jdb on Jul 22, 2022 8:27:24 GMT -5
I think we will sell off some expiring contracts but at the same time trade for some guys who could help us next year. With rumors of Bloom trying to upgrade the catching position last offseason I wouldn’t be surprised if we kick the tires on Murphy in Oakland. The more I watch the Yankees the more I think their staff is more comfortable throwing to their new catchers and I think it could make a big difference for us.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2022 8:27:28 GMT -5
Selective buying and selling I agree with this. Buy and sell, with one eye on letting them still have a chance in 22, bit more attention on helping them in 23 and beyond. One important concern is that they need through minor trades to extract some value from their ample supply of decent talent that will need to be protected in the Rule 5. |
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2022 8:31:29 GMT -5
Looks like Dominic Smith, who I use to be very high on. Perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs. You sellers keep saying (there's a ton we could get back) I'm not seeing it. Teams don't pony up top prospects unless its for an elite player these days. Unless they don't realize they are top prospects, as with Pivetta and Whitlock. Or Arozarena |
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Post by briam on Jul 22, 2022 8:48:15 GMT -5
Last season the Yannkees were 46-43 coming out of the all star break and were able to show a little fight and then buy at the deadline which led to a playoff run. If those bums could do it last year there’s no reason the Sox can’t use the same strategy this season.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 22, 2022 9:04:55 GMT -5
I’m on the fence, with my biggest issue right now is that if they don’t sell they might be stuck in purgatory where they make the playoffs, but are clearly worse than the top tier.
The “pipeline” wether it’s the farm or free agency, is dry. We could lose 2 of our 3 good hitters this offseason with Casas being our only hope of replacement. I just can’t see how he’s enough. And Turner, Swanson, and Correa are all bets on dWAR which we already have covered with Story. So if this year and next year look like potential playoff runs, but lagging behind NYY, HOU, and LAD, should they just reboot and try to get a jump on 2024? It sucks to commit to that from a fans perspective, but come 2024 will we be happy to have been pretenders for the last few years? They could also get hot and enter the playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face.
If they got career (or close) years from a bunch of guys last season, they're getting the opposite this season (very reminiscent of 2018-19). If some of those guys can just turn it around for the last two months and we get healthy, it's a playoff team with the same puncher's chance that any team has in a short series.
Add to that a Josh Bell and a back end bullpen piece or two and Bob's yer uncle...
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 22, 2022 9:08:13 GMT -5
Three important points.
1. Unlike a team stuck in mediocrity all over the diamond, there are obvious spots to upgrade. It differentiates them from a team that's in 85-win hell. That's good.
2. The holes are the ones that were apparent in December and so I question the team's ability to fill them. That's bad.
3. I am not emotionally prepared for a trade of Xander Bogaerts.
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Post by semperfisox on Jul 22, 2022 9:31:00 GMT -5
I wish they would sell because I just don’t think this team is very good. I think ownership would be too worried about the backlash so it won’t happen.
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