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Red Sox Acquire Eric Hosmer
nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 4, 2022 12:07:31 GMT -5
I think Groome was a good risk to take at the time of the draft. Can’t get mad about that.
The Ball pick was lame, but realistically the only other right choice the Sox could have made in his range was Meadows. A lot of people did want him at the time, but for a “best case scenario” it isn’t the type of situation where FOMO eats you up.
I still think the 2012 first round (Marrero/Johnson picks) was the worst in recent memory. Gallo, Berrios, Brinson (busted but was a great trade chip) all there and they drafted “high floor” college players without great stat lines back to back. Johnson and Marrero did get further than Ball and we’re drafted much lower, so I understand this is a bit of a hot take, but that draft always rubbed me the wrong way.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 4, 2022 12:33:40 GMT -5
I think Groome was a good risk to take at the time of the draft. Can’t get mad about that. The Ball pick was lame, but realistically the only other right choice the Sox could have made in his range was Meadows. A lot of people did want him at the time, but for a “best case scenario” it isn’t the type of situation where FOMO eats you up. I still think the 2012 first round (Marrero/Johnson picks) was the worst in recent memory. Gallo, Berrios, Brinson (busted but was a great trade chip) all there and they drafted “high floor” college players without great stat lines back to back. Johnson and Marrero did get further than Ball and we’re drafted much lower, so I understand this is a bit of a hot take, but that draft always rubbed me the wrong way. Kolbrin Vitek for me. Every time I came across a Nick Castellanos highlight (who I was high on) I remember that draft lol
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 4, 2022 12:49:46 GMT -5
I think Groome was a good risk to take at the time of the draft. Can’t get mad about that. The Ball pick was lame, but realistically the only other right choice the Sox could have made in his range was Meadows. A lot of people did want him at the time, but for a “best case scenario” it isn’t the type of situation where FOMO eats you up. I still think the 2012 first round (Marrero/Johnson picks) was the worst in recent memory. Gallo, Berrios, Brinson (busted but was a great trade chip) all there and they drafted “high floor” college players without great stat lines back to back. Johnson and Marrero did get further than Ball and we’re drafted much lower, so I understand this is a bit of a hot take, but that draft always rubbed me the wrong way. Kolbrin Vitek for me. Every time I came across a Nick Castellanos highlight (who I was high on) I remember that draft lol I think I wanted Jesse Biddle and Mike Olt with two of our picks, but even that would have been better lol. Also could have had Yelich at that pick. We took Brentz before Syndergaard and Ranaudo before Castellanos and Taijuan Walker. Lol so yeah, that’s a fair one to shake your head at too.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 4, 2022 14:12:55 GMT -5
Kolbrin Vitek for me. Every time I came across a Nick Castellanos highlight (who I was high on) I remember that draft lol I think I wanted Jesse Biddle and Mike Olt with two of our picks, but even that would have been better lol. Also could have had Yelich at that pick. We took Brentz before Syndergaard and Ranaudo before Castellanos and Taijuan Walker. Lol so yeah, that’s a fair one to shake your head at too. Ranaudo at 39 was looked at as a windfall if I remember correctly. Maybe he's just who I wanted.
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2022 16:12:07 GMT -5
I didn’t mean to cast blame, especially with the Groome pick, which I felt like was viewed as a great get. I just mean that Ball and Groome are guys that represent two big gaps in the system. If one or both of those picks hit, you have potentially another top-10 guy or two.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 4, 2022 16:15:05 GMT -5
I've heard Hosmer has a bit of a neck injury - is he getting added to the roster today or is he in limbo? It'd be cool for his first game with the Sox to be in Kansas City. I bet the fans would give him a great reception! Hosmer starting tonight against the lefty. Dalbec on the bench. I know it's Hosmer's debut for us and we're in Kansas City, but Dalbec sitting does make me wonder if Hosmer is going to start, with Dalbec relegated to backup corner IF and occasional DH, assuming Hosmer is about what we expect. Maybe they feel Hosmer's reverse split this year is legit, or at least legit enough to justify playing him over Bobby?
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2022 16:26:09 GMT -5
I've heard Hosmer has a bit of a neck injury - is he getting added to the roster today or is he in limbo? It'd be cool for his first game with the Sox to be in Kansas City. I bet the fans would give him a great reception! Hosmer starting tonight against the lefty. Dalbec on the bench. I know it's Hosmer's debut for us and we're in Kansas City, but Dalbec sitting does make me wonder if Hosmer is going to start, with Dalbec relegated to backup corner IF and occasional DH, assuming Hosmer is about what we expect. Maybe they feel Hosmer's reverse split this year is legit, or at least legit enough to justify playing him over Bobby? Don’t ask for whom the bell tolls… it tolls for Bobby D.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 4, 2022 19:56:44 GMT -5
I didn’t mean to cast blame, especially with the Groome pick, which I felt like was viewed as a great get. I just mean that Ball and Groome are guys that represent two big gaps in the system. If one or both of those picks hit, you have potentially another top-10 guy or two. Well, we all know you don't like to irrationally cast blame, manfred. You always try to keep it positive. (Hey, I'm yanking your chain. You walked right into it and I couldn't resist. ) I think you can take it a step further and point out that the RS didn't get much out of any of their three last-place finishes from 2012 to 2015. We all liked watching Beni play for a few years, but he gave the RS only 8.4 FG WAR and most of that was tied up in one year. 2018. He was below 2 in his other two full seasons, 2017 and 2019. Let's hope we do better in the 2023 draft coming off another last-place finish.
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2022 19:59:16 GMT -5
I didn’t mean to cast blame, especially with the Groome pick, which I felt like was viewed as a great get. I just mean that Ball and Groome are guys that represent two big gaps in the system. If one or both of those picks hit, you have potentially another top-10 guy or two. Well, we all know you don't like to irrationally cast blame, manfred. You always try to keep it positive. (Hey, I'm yanking your chain. You walked right into it and I couldn't resist. ) I think you can take it a step further and point out that the RS didn't get much out of any of their three last-place finishes from 2012 to 2015. We all liked watching Beni play for a few years, but he gave the RS only 8.4 FG WAR and most of that was tied up in one year. 2018. He was below 2 in his other two full seasons, 2017 and 2019. Let's hope we do better in the 2023 draft coming off another last-place finish. You forget… we got Franchy out of him.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 4, 2022 20:07:52 GMT -5
Well, we all know you don't like to irrationally cast blame, manfred. You always try to keep it positive. (Hey, I'm yanking your chain. You walked right into it and I couldn't resist. ) I think you can take it a step further and point out that the RS didn't get much out of any of their three last-place finishes from 2012 to 2015. We all liked watching Beni play for a few years, but he gave the RS only 8.4 FG WAR and most of that was tied up in one year. 2018. He was below 2 in his other two full seasons, 2017 and 2019. Let's hope we do better in the 2023 draft coming off another last-place finish. You forget… we got Franchy out of him. I'm trying to forget, but I haven't been able to. I'm also noticing that Winck has a FIP of 5.09, which is right in line with his ERA, a high WHIP and low K/B rate. I'd prefer that CB tilt more toward quality and less toward quantity when he acquires young whipper-snappers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 3:18:24 GMT -5
It sure seems that if we keep Hosmer, there's precious little PT for him. But is that true?
Joc Pederson is a below average LF, but he's still playable out there (especially at Fenway). If you sign him as DH (or acquire someone similar for the job), his ability to play LF, combined with Kiké's ability to play the infield, can create PT for Hosmer that would be typical for a guy like him.
Obviously he'd back up both Casas and Pederson. Having a real 1B as a Casas backup has real value, I think.
If an OF is out of the lineup (for whatever reason) vs. a RHP, than Hosmer is at DH, Pederson is in LF, and depending on who's out, Verdugo may be in RF and Laureano (or Margot, etc.) may be in CF.
If a skill infielder is out, you obviously can use Arroyo, but you can also bring in Kiké and and have Hosmer DH with an OF of Pederson, Laurenao, and Verdugo (the thinner, more athletic version we hope tto see). You make that choice based on the opposing pitcher and your own need for OF defense based on who's starting for you.
It's a lot of flexibility. Even with his 2020-and-after modified swing he's still a good fit for Fenway, and I don't see a reason why they wouldn't have him work on going back to the swing he used most of his career, when he was an insanely good fit.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 4, 2022 9:57:16 GMT -5
It sure seems that if we keep Hosmer, there's precious little PT for him. But is that true?
Joc Pederson is a below average LF, but he's still playable out there (especially at Fenway). If you sign him as DH (or acquire someone similar for the job), his ability to play LF, combined with Kiké's ability to play the infield, can create PT for Hosmer that would be typical for a guy like him.
Obviously he'd back up both Casas and Pederson. Having a real 1B as a Casas backup has real value, I think.
If an OF is out of the lineup (for whatever reason) vs. a RHP, than Hosmer is at DH, Pederson is in LF, and depending on who's out, Verdugo may be in RF and Laureano (or Margot, etc.) may be in CF.
If a skill infielder is out, you obviously can use Arroyo, but you can also bring in Kiké and and have Hosmer DH with an OF of Pederson, Laurenao, and Verdugo (the thinner, more athletic version we hope tto see). You make that choice based on the opposing pitcher and your own need for OF defense based on who's starting for you.
It's a lot of flexibility. Even with his 2020-and-after modified swing he's still a good fit for Fenway, and I don't see a reason why they wouldn't have him work on going back to the swing he used most of his career, when he was an insanely good fit.
Adding Pederson and one of the other OF you suggest raises the floor of the lineup to one that can compete for a wild card spot. This assumes that they also re sign Bogarts or one of the other elite free agents. Hosmer could be a pleasent surprise. I have no problem with Verdugo in RF. I love they guy for what he is think he should be penciled in out there, worked with to improve the defense and what ever else. Set it and forget it. If Judge or Nimmo were were to become the elite free agent, adjust accordingly.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 5, 2022 6:35:18 GMT -5
I would imagine Hosmer is the opening day 1st baseman and Casas is the opening day DH. Dalbec is probably getting traded for a utility infielder or a bullpen arm.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2022 16:53:07 GMT -5
I would imagine Hosmer is the opening day 1st baseman and Casas is the opening day DH. Dalbec is probably getting traded for a utility infielder or a bullpen arm. Casas is a very good 1b, and does not have much experience with the difficult task of keeping ready as a DH. Hosmer's GG days are well behind him. OTOH, I think I looked it a few weeks ago, that Hosmer has had a good first month of the season most the last few seasons, which is a plausible thing for an aging guy to do.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 5, 2022 17:34:18 GMT -5
I would imagine Hosmer is the opening day 1st baseman and Casas is the opening day DH. Dalbec is probably getting traded for a utility infielder or a bullpen arm. Casas is a very good 1b, and does not have much experience with the difficult take of keeping ready as a DH. Hosmer's GG days are well behind him. OTOH, I think I looked it a few weeks ago, that Hosmer has had a good first month of the season most the last few seasons, which is a plausible thing for an aging guy to do. Yes I think that the idea that Casas and Hosmer are manning 1st/DH opening day could certainly be the case but if it is Casas is probably playing 1st and Hosmer DH.
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Post by cba82 on Nov 7, 2022 18:07:07 GMT -5
"Dalbec is probably getting traded for a utility infielder or a bullpen arm." -- I love Bobby D, but it's time for him to get a change of scenery, and maybe he'll blossom; for his sake, I hope so. I don't anticipate much of a return, however (and we have plenty of utility infielders).
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 7, 2022 19:06:40 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too upset if Bobby D was shipped out, the only thing that concerns me about that is we are already losing both JDM and maybe Xander. I get Dalbec isn't great but right handed power isn't easy to come by and this team is losing its two best already.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 7, 2022 19:14:00 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too upset if Bobby D was shipped out, the only thing that concerns me about that is we are already losing both JDM and maybe Xander. I get Dalbec isn't great but right handed power isn't easy to come by and this team is losing its two best already. Agree. Until there is a better candidate on the roster to get the bulk of RH DH at bats, Dalbec is an important piece. 25 HR season before last.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 23:36:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too upset if Bobby D was shipped out, the only thing that concerns me about that is we are already losing both JDM and maybe Xander. I get Dalbec isn't great but right handed power isn't easy to come by and this team is losing its two best already. And why sell low on him?
I have Dalbec as the starting 3B in Worcester, playing some 1B, LF, and DH. First callup whenever a RH bat is on the IL.
I''m not selling low on Franchy either, given that he's likely to end up as one of the leaders in most-helped-by-shift ban in my analysis, and he's also shown up as one of the LHB most suited for Fenway. He's got one more season on option to work on keeping his good mechanics longer and getting out of his awful slumps sooner.
In the latter, I've always felt that JDM had the right approach: monitor your swing and catch bad mechanics early, before they become a habit that needs to be broken.
I'd also play him full-time in LF (and Duran at 2B).
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 9, 2022 11:01:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too upset if Bobby D was shipped out, the only thing that concerns me about that is we are already losing both JDM and maybe Xander. I get Dalbec isn't great but right handed power isn't easy to come by and this team is losing its two best already. And why sell low on him?
I have Dalbec as the starting 3B in Worcester, playing some 1B, LF, and DH. First callup whenever a RH bat is on the IL.
I''m not selling low on Franchy either, given that he's likely to end up as one of the leaders in most-helped-by-shift ban in my analysis, and he's also shown up as one of the LHB most suited for Fenway. He's got one more season on option to work on keeping his good mechanics longer and getting out of his awful slumps sooner.
In the latter, I've always felt that JDM had the right approach: monitor your swing and catch bad mechanics early, before they become a habit that needs to be broken.
I'd also play him full-time in LF (and Duran at 2B).
The only rationale I could see is that he still has some value and they are looking at a 40 man roster crunch. But I think Dalbec's skillset is unique enough that they should hang onto him. His ability to play multiple positions on the diamond plus being a right handed power bat are more valuable to me than what Hosmer brings. A career 128 wRC+ against LHP is going to be real nice to have for a team that might lose X and JDM.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 9, 2022 13:14:41 GMT -5
Kolbrin Vitek for me. Every time I came across a Nick Castellanos highlight (who I was high on) I remember that draft lol I think I wanted Jesse Biddle and Mike Olt with two of our picks, but even that would have been better lol. Also could have had Yelich at that pick. We took Brentz before Syndergaard and Ranaudo before Castellanos and Taijuan Walker. Lol so yeah, that’s a fair one to shake your head at too. Most recently Nick Decker and Durbin Feltman before Jeremy Pena in 2018. Feltman two picks before.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 9, 2022 13:38:32 GMT -5
I think I wanted Jesse Biddle and Mike Olt with two of our picks, but even that would have been better lol. Also could have had Yelich at that pick. We took Brentz before Syndergaard and Ranaudo before Castellanos and Taijuan Walker. Lol so yeah, that’s a fair one to shake your head at too. Most recently Nick Decker and Durbin Feltman before Jeremy Pena in 2018. Feltman two picks before. hindsight is wonderful isn’t it?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 16:14:44 GMT -5
And why sell low on him?
I have Dalbec as the starting 3B in Worcester, playing some 1B, LF, and DH. First callup whenever a RH bat is on the IL.
I''m not selling low on Franchy either, given that he's likely to end up as one of the leaders in most-helped-by-shift ban in my analysis, and he's also shown up as one of the LHB most suited for Fenway. He's got one more season on option to work on keeping his good mechanics longer and getting out of his awful slumps sooner.
In the latter, I've always felt that JDM had the right approach: monitor your swing and catch bad mechanics early, before they become a habit that needs to be broken.
I'd also play him full-time in LF (and Duran at 2B).
The only rationale I could see is that he still has some value and they are looking at a 40 man roster crunch. But I think Dalbec's skillset is unique enough that they should hang onto him. His ability to play multiple positions on the diamond plus being a right handed power bat are more valuable to me than what Hosmer brings. A career 128 wRC+ against LHP is going to be real nice to have for a team that might lose X and JDM. False dichotomy here. How often is one of the 11 position players (other than catcher) hurt? And I don't mean just hurt enough to obviously go on the IL; I also mean hurt enough that 10 days on the IL would, in the long run, be a good idea, if you have someone you can call up who's good enough.
The only RHB's of note on the projected WooSox roster are Rafela and Wong. The former you want playing every day for at least the first half of the season, and the latter is barely functional as a bench addition. You really have no RHB to call up at all. Compare the list of LHB: Franchy, Duran, Abreu, E. Valdez, and if there's 40-man room, Fitzgerald.
I agree about Dalbec's worth as a platoon bat on the bench, but until there's an injury, you're likely platooning just at DH, and Refsnyder and Arroyo cover that well enough. Arroyo hits good pitching nearly as well as bad, it seems (he's averaged 0.6 WAR per 600 PA in his career, but 1.3 WAR when you adjust for "clutch", an amazing ratio, granted, in a small sample), while Refsnyder destroys bad LH pitchers but struggles against the good ones. It's a very nice platoon within a platoon, and Kiké's ability to play the infield means you can use anybody who needs a half-day off at DH.
So, how often do you expect one of Story, Kiké, Laureano (or equivalent), and Xander (ditto) to be banged up enough that a trip to the IL would be a good idea ... if and only if you had Dalbec to call up? And of course, if Dalbec is to reach his potential, playing every day for a majority of the season has to help.
Now, Hosmer. He'd be the only LHB on the bench and he's plain and simple Mitch Moreland, except maybe even better (if he returns to his old oppo-power swing).
Moreland in his career averaged just 0.9 WAR per 600 PA, but he hit good pitching so well that when you adjust for the situation he's hitting in, he's 1.6. That's an extra 76% of value, which is a crazy number. And you saw that in action.
Eric Hosmer is also 0.9 raw and 1.6 adjusted, and when you don't round off the numbers he's added 83% of his WAR value. He has a reputation for clutch hitting and this is why.
Would you jettison Mitch Moreland in his Sox prime to make room for Bobby Dalbec on the bench full-time, instead of playing every day in Worcester and available on a moment's notice for MLB action, if needed?
Of course you wouldn't. That's the sort of organizational depth you need to contend.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 9, 2022 16:36:44 GMT -5
The only rationale I could see is that he still has some value and they are looking at a 40 man roster crunch. But I think Dalbec's skillset is unique enough that they should hang onto him. His ability to play multiple positions on the diamond plus being a right handed power bat are more valuable to me than what Hosmer brings. A career 128 wRC+ against LHP is going to be real nice to have for a team that might lose X and JDM. False dichotomy here. How often is one of the 11 position players (other than catcher) hurt? And I don't mean just hurt enough to obviously go on the IL; I also mean hurt enough that 10 days on the IL would, in the long run, be a good idea, if you have someone you can call up who's good enough.
The only RHB's of note on the projected WooSox roster are Rafela and Wong. The former you want playing every day for at least the first half of the season, and the latter is barely functional as a bench addition. You really have no RHB to call up at all. Compare the list of LHB: Franchy, Duran, Abreu, E. Valdez, and if there's 40-man room, Fitzgerald.
I agree about Dalbec's worth as a platoon bat on the bench, but until there's an injury, you're likely platooning just at DH, and Refsnyder and Arroyo cover that well enough. Arroyo hits good pitching nearly as well as bad, it seems (he's averaged 0.6 WAR per 600 PA in his career, but 1.3 WAR when you adjust for "clutch", an amazing ratio, granted, in a small sample), while Refsnyder destroys bad LH pitchers but struggles against the good ones. It's a very nice platoon within a platoon, and Kiké's ability to play the infield means you can use anybody who needs a half-day off at DH.
So, how often do you expect one of Story, Kiké, Laureano (or equivalent), and Xander (ditto) to be banged up enough that a trip to the IL would be a good idea ... if and only if you had Dalbec to call up? And of course, if Dalbec is to reach his potential, playing every day for a majority of the season has to help.
Now, Hosmer. He'd be the only LHB on the bench and he's plain and simple Mitch Moreland, except maybe even better (if he returns to his old oppo-power swing).
Moreland in his career averaged just 0.9 WAR per 600 PA, but he hit good pitching so well that when you adjust for the situation he's hitting in, he's 1.6. That's an extra 76% of value, which is a crazy number. And you saw that in action.
Eric Hosmer is also 0.9 raw and 1.6 adjusted, and when you don't round off the numbers he's added 83% of his WAR value. He has a reputation for clutch hitting and this is why.
Would you jettison Mitch Moreland in his Sox prime to make room for Bobby Dalbec on the bench full-time, instead of playing every day in Worcester and available on a moment's notice for MLB action, if needed?
Of course you wouldn't. That's the sort of organizational depth you need to contend.
You have done a great job of validating through analysis what I intuitively felt about Hosmer. He is a great fit for this roster, at this time. I wondered often last year where on earth Mitch was and why we did not get him again !!
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 9, 2022 18:48:05 GMT -5
The only rationale I could see is that he still has some value and they are looking at a 40 man roster crunch. But I think Dalbec's skillset is unique enough that they should hang onto him. His ability to play multiple positions on the diamond plus being a right handed power bat are more valuable to me than what Hosmer brings. A career 128 wRC+ against LHP is going to be real nice to have for a team that might lose X and JDM. False dichotomy here. How often is one of the 11 position players (other than catcher) hurt? And I don't mean just hurt enough to obviously go on the IL; I also mean hurt enough that 10 days on the IL would, in the long run, be a good idea, if you have someone you can call up who's good enough.
The only RHB's of note on the projected WooSox roster are Rafela and Wong. The former you want playing every day for at least the first half of the season, and the latter is barely functional as a bench addition. You really have no RHB to call up at all. Compare the list of LHB: Franchy, Duran, Abreu, E. Valdez, and if there's 40-man room, Fitzgerald.
I agree about Dalbec's worth as a platoon bat on the bench, but until there's an injury, you're likely platooning just at DH, and Refsnyder and Arroyo cover that well enough. Arroyo hits good pitching nearly as well as bad, it seems (he's averaged 0.6 WAR per 600 PA in his career, but 1.3 WAR when you adjust for "clutch", an amazing ratio, granted, in a small sample), while Refsnyder destroys bad LH pitchers but struggles against the good ones. It's a very nice platoon within a platoon, and Kiké's ability to play the infield means you can use anybody who needs a half-day off at DH.
So, how often do you expect one of Story, Kiké, Laureano (or equivalent), and Xander (ditto) to be banged up enough that a trip to the IL would be a good idea ... if and only if you had Dalbec to call up? And of course, if Dalbec is to reach his potential, playing every day for a majority of the season has to help.
Now, Hosmer. He'd be the only LHB on the bench and he's plain and simple Mitch Moreland, except maybe even better (if he returns to his old oppo-power swing).
Moreland in his career averaged just 0.9 WAR per 600 PA, but he hit good pitching so well that when you adjust for the situation he's hitting in, he's 1.6. That's an extra 76% of value, which is a crazy number. And you saw that in action.
Eric Hosmer is also 0.9 raw and 1.6 adjusted, and when you don't round off the numbers he's added 83% of his WAR value. He has a reputation for clutch hitting and this is why.
Would you jettison Mitch Moreland in his Sox prime to make room for Bobby Dalbec on the bench full-time, instead of playing every day in Worcester and available on a moment's notice for MLB action, if needed?
Of course you wouldn't. That's the sort of organizational depth you need to contend.
I mean, maybe? Mitch Moreland was only a fine player because he started, I don't see where his value comes in as a bench player. Hosmer is the same to me, only okay if he is your starting 1B. But I really don't like him as a bench player or primary DH. It again goes to my original point that the 2023 team is seriously lacking right handed power on the roster right now, which is why I would like to see Bobby D in the lineup against LHP.
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