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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2022 1:54:13 GMT -5
I believe we can safely assume the following, That doesn't mean things are certain, but if they don't play out this way, it will be unexpected.: 1) Reese McGuire will be either the starting or backup catcher. 2) The infield will consist of Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. 3) Alex Vergugo is in LF and Kiké Hernandez is in CF. 4) The bench includes either McGuire or Connor Wong, Christian Arroyo, and Rob Refsnyder. TO be determined, with in-house options: A) RF: absolutely no one B) DH: Franchy Cordero, Eric Hosmer; both extreme longshots C) Last man on bench: Bobby Dalbec, Hosmer; longshots Cordero, Jarren Duran
1) McGuire had a .243 / .249 (actual / expected) wOBA with the Wrong Sox. With the Right Sox, he's .391 / .310, and in a very sample, his big platoon split has disappeared completely. He's playing like the first-round pick he was rather than the backup he became.
The trade of Christian Vazquez makes vastly more sense if they thought there was an easy tweak they could make to McGuire as a hitter. They knew it would shake up the clubhouse. And if you have a tweak you want to test, trying it out for two months is vastly better than committing to it in advance in the off-season.
And check this out ("Prev" is his entire career before he came here: Stat Prev RSox LD% .288 .471 GB% .322 .294 FB% .479 .235
The odds of getting the before-and-after LD% split in a random simulation are precisely in 100 (p = .0100) .
The catch here is that no one has a .471 LD% -- Bryce Harper, who leads MLB in Baseball Info Solution's less generous numbers, has a a .338. McGuire's success (his .310 xwOBA matches CV's season figure exactly) is likely due in part to pitchers using an outdated "book" on how to get him out. And the high xwOBA relative to wOBA is likely in part a function of outmoded positioning.
Obviously everyone has to wait and see how he does in the remainder of the season, as pitchers and defenses adapt to him. But I'm convinced they believe he might be an above average starting catcher. You don't trade CV if McGuire's ceiling is top backup or below-average starter. How likely they think that is we have no way of knowing, but the odds are apparently not negligible.
So fret not -- signing Contreras or trading for Murphy are very likely still on the table. But if McGuire can be an above-average staring catcher, that money or talent might well be better used to fix an actual hole.
The remaining 6 points will each get their own posts. Note that I won't respond to any disagreements with this until I get to the corresponding point, when I'll try to address them all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2022 8:22:10 GMT -5
Strong disagree that the Vázquez trade was made with McGuire in mind at all. I think it's far more likely that he was an acceptable replacement available in a deal they made primarily because the White Sox would take Diekman and his money off their hands. He's cheap and good defensively.
They traded Vázquez because someone met the asking price they put on a guy about to become a free agent.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 28, 2022 8:46:22 GMT -5
This thread should be deleted. This is a thread to guess which guys will resign? I’m flabbergasted.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2022 9:05:54 GMT -5
This thread should be deleted. This is a thread to guess which guys will resign? I’m flabbergasted. There’s a 2023 rotation thread, how exactly is this any different? I bet Tommy Pham is in the mix next year
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 28, 2022 9:23:46 GMT -5
I believe we can safely assume the following, That doesn't mean things are certain, but if they don't play out this way, it will be unexpected.: 1) Reese McGuire will be either the starting or backup catcher. 2) The infield will consist of Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. 3) Alex Vergugo is in LF and Kiké Hernandez is in CF. 4) The bench includes either McGuire or Connor Wong, Christian Arroyo, and Rob Refsnyder. TO be determined, with in-house options: A) RF: absolutely no one B) DH: Franchy Cordero, Eric Hosmer; both extreme longshots C) Last man on bench: Bobby Dalbec, Hosmer; longshots Cordero, Jarren Duran 1) McGuire had a .243 / .249 (actual / expected) wOBA with the Wrong Sox. With the Right Sox, he's .391 / .310, and in a very sample, his big platoon split has disappeared completely. He's playing like the first-round pick he was rather than the backup he became.
The trade of Christian Vazquez makes vastly more sense if they thought there was an easy tweak they could make to McGuire as a hitter. They knew it would shake up the clubhouse. And if you have a tweak you want to test, trying it out for two months is vastly better than committing to it in advance in the off-season. And check this out ("Prev" is his entire career before he came here: Stat Prev RSox LD% .288 .471 GB% .322 .294 FB% .479 .235
The odds of getting the before-and-after LD% split in a random simulation are precisely in 100 (p = .0100) .
The catch here is that no one has a .471 LD% -- Bryce Harper, who leads MLB in Baseball Info Solution's less generous numbers, has a a .338. McGuire's success (his .310 xwOBA matches CV's season figure exactly) is likely due in part to pitchers using an outdated "book" on how to get him out. And the high xwOBA relative to wOBA is likely in part a function of outmoded positioning. Obviously everyone has to wait and see how he does in the remainder of the season, as pitchers and defenses adapt to him. But I'm convinced they believe he might be an above average starting catcher. You don't trade CV if McGuire's ceiling is top backup or below-average starter. How likely they think that is we have no way of knowing, but the odds are apparently not negligible.
So fret not -- signing Contreras or trading for Murphy are very likely still on the table. But if McGuire can be an above-average staring catcher, that money or talent might well be better used to fix an actual hole. The remaining 6 points will each get their own posts. Note that I won't respond to any disagreements with this until I get to the corresponding point, when I'll try to address them all.
The bolded.....why would it be unexpected if Xander winds up in a different uniform? I think odds are pretty good Xander winds up with the Cubs or Phillies or Cardinals. What would be shocking if the 2023 CF for the Red Sox isn't Kiké Hernandez? I think there's a decent chance he's back but I think it's more of a coin toss. Would anybody be 100% stunned if Bloom finds that extending Devers is not going to happen because Devers wants more than 300 million and he strongly considers trading him instead of letting him play out a final season with the Red Sox and getting nothing more than a draft pick (which is what he winds up getting if/when X leaves)? I think Devers likely stays put in 2023 and leaves via a trade at the deadline or free agency afterward and is pretty likely to break camp with the 2023 Red Sox, but I don't rule out the possibility that he is traded. Also, why would the Red Sox know how to make "an easy tweak" to McGuire that nobody knows how to do? Superior knowledge? Other organizations are dumb? I don't understand this line of thinking in an age where virtually all organizations are run the same way, with ivy league statisticians running the show. Like Chris said, I doubt the Sox dumped Vazquez because they instantly thought of McGuire as their catcher of the future. I do suspect that McGuire does wind up platooning with Wong and that McGuire won't hit that much. Also if Hosmer or Cordero are under any primary consideration for the DH spot, then they might as well extend the corpse of JD Martinez, which I doubt they do. My hope is that Casas forces his way up to 1b and then they dump Hosmer who is a very average-ish hitter. I would much prefer they find a way to turn the DH spot into an advantage like they've enjoyed most of the last two decades between Ortiz and Martinez. Big market teams should be able to find a guy who can mash and put him in the DH spot while the smaller market teams save money and "rotate" guys for defensive days off.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 28, 2022 11:08:15 GMT -5
This thread should be deleted. This is a thread to guess which guys will resign? I’m flabbergasted. There’s a 2023 rotation thread, how exactly is this any different? I bet Tommy Pham is in the mix next year 50% of our rotation isn’t free agents.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 28, 2022 11:14:18 GMT -5
Once Story was signed I thought Xander was a goner, but I think it's become a little more likely he stays for a couple reasons:
1) I have a hunch that the ownership will not tolerate the loss of Mookie, Bogaerts, and Devers in such rapid succession. I think Bloom's preference was to extend Devers but the sides were too far apart to make that happen before this season and at this point Devers is probably just going to play it out to free agenccy. They can't count on being able to bring him back at that point. Xander, by contrast, has a history of taking a discount to stay in Boston, so they may feel that's the better bet.
2) Xander's offense has been a little underwhelming this season, though this gets overstated a lot (he's already only 0.1 fWAR from tying the second best fWAR total of his career). Still, the FA contract offers might not be as rich as they once might have seemed like they'd be.
If I had to bet money, I'd still put it on him leaving, but I've gone from like 90% to 60% on that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2022 11:28:33 GMT -5
There’s a 2023 rotation thread, how exactly is this any different? I bet Tommy Pham is in the mix next year 50% of our rotation isn’t free agents. The moderators will handle moderating. Thanks.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 28, 2022 11:34:03 GMT -5
Thanks for getting this conversation started, Eric. My thesis is the Sox still need to replace the bats of Renfroe and Schwarber; and will now need to replace JDMâs.
1. In the OF, finding a very big bat/average defender LF who would move Verdugo to RF is one solution; especially as young Verdugo continues to grow as a hitter and fielder at Fenway. And Kiké could settle in at CF.
2. Casas MAY be one of those bats. It seems likely. I would not want to waste his apparent defense at 1B by making him the DH. But Hosmer and Casas already have a mentor relationship, which with Hosmerâs veteran team leadership, GG skills at 1B and incredible minimal salary should make him a shoo in for at least a bench role. If he does evolve into a good Fenway hitter, as anticipated, he and Casas might actually make a better than average 1B/DH combo.
3. Xander is our home grown Silver Slugger SS with much improved defense this season. His bat is already elite despite his slump. Adding several million annual $$ to Xanderâs existing contract seems a wiser choice than letting him walk and paying a similar amount to replace him. There is zero addition by subtraction here. Maintaining s core of the core (adding Casas to X and Devers) is good sense for so many human reasons and is also good business. Having to replace the bats of Xander and Devers as well as Schwarber, Renfroe and JDM is just too much. A bad move.
4. If, as seems possible, Wong and McGuire can be an average to good hitting and fielding catching tandem, that position is set, stable, offensively productive, strong defensively, at minimal $$. Finding a replacement who is another âbig batâ would be pure gold, but would also cost enough gold to hurt the team elsewhere. Adding them, Casas, and a big bat LF to XB, Devers, Verdugo, Story, Kiké, a Fenway acclimated Hosmer, Arroyo, maybe even a true replacement for Papi/JDMâ¦that would be something.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 28, 2022 11:46:28 GMT -5
If you go Casas who mashes RHP in minors yet struggles with LHP, Dalbec should be his platoon partner. Which means you move Hosmer, which given his near zero cost should be able to net you something useful. Also decreases depth and doesn't allow you to get another year of service time versus starting in minors.
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2022 11:49:00 GMT -5
There’s a 2023 rotation thread, how exactly is this any different? I bet Tommy Pham is in the mix next year 50% of our rotation isn’t free agents. Aren’t they? Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi? Maybe Paxton? Seems like the rotation is even less certain than the lineup. In theory, the Sox have a full lineup under contract even if X and Kiké walk.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 28, 2022 11:51:07 GMT -5
So I looked at McGuire splits, last July in 21 games he hit .344 .385 .492 .876. So he's shown you before he can have big months, the key is stringing them together. Otherwise it's just a hot streak every player has in a season.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 28, 2022 11:59:55 GMT -5
Don't know how much I trust WAR for catchers, so take it for what it's worth, but McGuire has 3.3 fWAR in 610 career PAs, with/despite a 79 wRC+. That's a starting caliber catcher.
It's actually 4.0 WAR in 565 PAs if you take out his abominable 45 PAs in 2020.
This may turn out to be a Workman/Hembree-grade robbery.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 28, 2022 12:10:45 GMT -5
The more I see McGuire, the more I think catcher is a position of strength for 2023. McGuire + Wong could combine for 2 WAR at almost no money. Hard to do better than that
The only free agent of note is Wilson Contreras. Didn't seem like there was much interest leaguewide at the trade deadline, so maybe they can get him a price too good to pass up. He would become a lot more valuable in a robo ump league. Wong will have an option, so I suppose it's possible they sign a JAG they like and keep Wong as the third catcher.
The A's started the service clock of their big time catching prospect this month, so Sean Murphy seems very likely to get traded. I imagine there will be a lot of interest, and the Sox have a reasonable BATNA, so I don't anticipate them winning the bidding. Murphy would lose a lot of value if roboumps came.
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2022 12:19:05 GMT -5
McGuire is hard to read. He wasn’t much of a hitter in the minors, but has hit a bit in the bigs. He is also still not old. CVaz bloomed late as a hitter.
But I still see McGuire as a guy who will get a lot of WAR with the glove, which is good — but might not be great in the lineup. It is fine if the other holes are filled. If he can field and hit a lick, that is great if they get adequate productivity from the OF and 1B.
Add: of course, if they do go with McGuire and Wong, it means they have even more to spend on those holes. They better come up with something big. I’d rather that than invest a lot in Contreras, for example.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 28, 2022 12:21:43 GMT -5
The more I see McGuire, the more I think catcher is a position of strength for 2023. McGuire + Wong could combine for 2 WAR at almost no money. Hard to do better than that The only free agent of note is Wilson Contreras. Didn't seem like there was much interest leaguewide at the trade deadline, so maybe they can get him a price too good to pass up. He would become a lot more valuable in a robo ump league. Wong will have an option, so I suppose it's possible they sign a JAG they like and keep Wong as the third catcher. The A's started the service clock of their big time catching prospect this month, so Sean Murphy seems very likely to get traded. I imagine there will be a lot of interest, and the Sox have a reasonable BATNA, so I don't anticipate them winning the bidding. Murphy would lose a lot of value if roboumps came. Though they were apparently talking with the A's about Murphy at the trade deadline so they must like him, and he'd be a good option to get PAs as DH on the days he isn't catching now that they'll have the space for it, so I wouldn't rule out their landing him. They could massively upgrade the position while spending way less money than they did at the position this year; that would go an awful long way to making the roster a lot stronger for the next three seasons.
(what is a BATNA?)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2022 12:38:48 GMT -5
Don’t need your catcher to hit (see 2018), if they do its gravy. It’s imperative that they have a good glove and work well with the pitchers.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 28, 2022 13:09:52 GMT -5
Best alternative to a negotiated agreement. It's a term of art in economics, there's lots of stuff on google if that is interesting to you
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2022 4:45:57 GMT -5
Strong disagree that the Vázquez trade was made with McGuire in mind at all. I think it's far more likely that he was an acceptable replacement available in a deal they made primarily because the White Sox would take Diekman and his money off their hands. He's cheap and good defensively. They traded Vázquez because someone met the asking price they put on a guy about to become a free agent. How do you explain the fact that everyone had a long list of guys that could be moved, but CV was the only one who was?
The key concept here is "meeting the asking price." Remember, the team was unquestionably trying to load up for a run at the WC. If a team's offer fails to meet the asking price, it meant that the prospects they were offering were not worth the projected decline in WC chance that would result from the absence of the traded player. They obviously got offers for Eovaldi and JDM that they now wish they had taken, but turned them down because they didn't have what you call an "acceptable replacement." Or more precisely, the downgrade to the best replacement they could muster (including internal options) was perceived as too severe, given the offers they received.
It is true that folks routinely overestimate the impact a single player can have over two months. The downgrade from CV to a really good backup / second division starter is something you can live with while still upgrading elsewhere, provided that describes the guy's floor.
But the idea that the two trades were not linked is, I think, indefensible. They were not going to to pursue a WC, to the extent of adding Pham and Hosmer and keeping Eovaldi and JDM, with a catching tandem of Plawecki and Renaldo Hernandez (Wong had just missed a few games and would not return until May 13). And if you understand that the asking price is dependent on a replacing player, you more or less contradict yourself with the last sentence.
So the only question is, did they make this trade regarding McGuire merely as next year's backup, or did they have in mind the possibility that he could be good enough to start for a contender?
If you go with the former, then you are regarding all of the following as coincidences without meaning: - CV has a 105 wRC+ in 41 PA since the trade, while McGuire has a 155 in 52
- McGuire is a former #14 pick in the draft (which makes the possession of unrealized upside more credible)
- The team trading him hired Tony LaRussa as their manager ... and traded for Jake Diekmann and his contract
I believe we can safely assume the following, That doesn't mean things are certain, but if they don't play out this way, it will be unexpected.: 1) Reese McGuire will be either the starting or backup catcher. 1) McGuire had a .243 / .249 (actual / expected) wOBA with the Wrong Sox. With the Right Sox, he's .391 / .310, and in a very sample, his big platoon split has disappeared completely. He's playing like the first-round pick he was rather than the backup he became.
The trade of Christian Vazquez makes vastly more sense if they thought there was an easy tweak they could make to McGuire as a hitter. They knew it would shake up the clubhouse. And if you have a tweak you want to test, trying it out for two months is vastly better than committing to it in advance in the off-season. And check this out ("Prev" is his entire career before he came here: Stat Prev RSox LD% .288 .471 GB% .322 .294 FB% .479 .235
The odds of getting the before-and-after LD% split in a random simulation are precisely in 100 (p = .0100) .
The catch here is that no one has a .471 LD% -- Bryce Harper, who leads MLB in Baseball Info Solution's less generous numbers, has a a .338. McGuire's success (his .310 xwOBA matches CV's season figure exactly) is likely due in part to pitchers using an outdated "book" on how to get him out. And the high xwOBA relative to wOBA is likely in part a function of outmoded positioning. Obviously everyone has to wait and see how he does in the remainder of the season, as pitchers and defenses adapt to him. But I'm convinced they believe he might be an above average starting catcher. You don't trade CV if McGuire's ceiling is top backup or below-average starter. How likely they think that is we have no way of knowing, but the odds are apparently not negligible.
So fret not -- signing Contreras or trading for Murphy are very likely still on the table. But if McGuire can be an above-average staring catcher, that money or talent might well be better used to fix an actual hole. The remaining 6 points will each get their own posts. Note that I won't respond to any disagreements with this until I get to the corresponding point, when I'll try to address them all.
Also, why would the Red Sox know how to make "an easy tweak" to McGuire that nobody knows how to do? Like Chris said, I doubt the Sox dumped Vazquez because they instantly thought of McGuire as their catcher of the future. I do suspect that McGuire does wind up platooning with Wong and that McGuire won't hit that much. Easy tweak to implement if you're McGuire, not easy to figure out.
Nick Pivetta says hi. Note that I figured out why he had serious upside within a couple of days after the trade, just from splits available at b-Ref. The notion that everyone doing analytics is equal and that every organization is doing it the same way is not correct. I could say much more, but we'd be drifting off topic.
And that's because this would be a mechanical tweak, not an analytic tweak, and that's essentially the same thing as better player development, which is the newer thing where teams are not perceived at all as equal.
There is of course a long list of guys who changed organizations and blossomed very quickly. Justin Turner had a been in three organizations, and had 926 PA with a 92 OPS+ when the Dodgers signed him a FA. He had a .537 OPS in his first 30 G (86 PA) with them, then had a 1.030 the rest of the way and ended up with a 141 OPS+ in his first 4 seasons with them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2022 6:42:09 GMT -5
Oh I agree they knew they needed to replace Vázquez if they were trading him. That is clear. You made a point in your original post that they only made the Vázquez trade because they think they can fix something in McGuire or something, as if they had some specific interest in McGuire that made Vázquez expendable. That's what I do not agree with. I think you said it in your second post - the downgrade from Vázquez to McGuire was acceptable for the return they got for Vázquez. Especially now that we know the PTBNL is legit in the Diekman trade (as in not some rookie ball org guy), I think it's a matter of going and getting someone who they are fine with at catcher once Vázquez was being shipped out.
As for why they didn't trade anyone else, simple again - nobody met their asking price.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2022 7:41:28 GMT -5
McGuire has a higher WAR/PA rate for his career than Vazquez by WARs both b and f and the gap grows wider if you throw out 2020. I don't think there's any need to posit that they had a way to "fix" him to make him an acceptable replacement for Vazquez.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 31, 2022 8:02:39 GMT -5
I always assumed McGuire was Plaweckis's replacement for 2023 and the Sox intended on getting another starting catcher for 2023. Maybe that's still in the cards, but now I'm starting to think otherwise. Maybe.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2022 8:06:35 GMT -5
Strong disagree that the Vázquez trade was made with McGuire in mind at all. I think it's far more likely that he was an acceptable replacement available in a deal they made primarily because the White Sox would take Diekman and his money off their hands. He's cheap and good defensively. They traded Vázquez because someone met the asking price they put on a guy about to become a free agent. How do you explain the fact that everyone had a long list of guys that could be moved, but CV was the only one who was?
The key concept here is "meeting the asking price." Remember, the team was unquestionably trying to load up for a run at the WC. If a team's offer fails to meet the asking price, it meant that the prospects they were offering were not worth the projected decline in WC chance that would result from the absence of the traded player. They obviously got offers for Eovaldi and JDM that they now wish they had taken, but turned them down because they didn't have what you call an "acceptable replacement." Or more precisely, the downgrade to the best replacement they could muster (including internal options) was perceived as too severe, given the offers they received.
It is true that folks routinely overestimate the impact a single player can have over two months. The downgrade from CV to a really good backup / second division starter is something you can live with while still upgrading elsewhere, provided that describes the guy's floor.
But the idea that the two trades were not linked is, I think, indefensible. They were not going to to pursue a WC, to the extent of adding Pham and Hosmer and keeping Eovaldi and JDM, with a catching tandem of Plawecki and Renaldo Hernandez (Wong had just missed a few games and would not return until May 13). And if you understand that the asking price is dependent on a replacing player, you more or less contradict yourself with the last sentence.
So the only question is, did they make this trade regarding McGuire merely as next year's backup, or did they have in mind the possibility that he could be good enough to start for a contender?
If you go with the former, then you are regarding all of the following as coincidences without meaning: - CV has a 105 wRC+ in 41 PA since the trade, while McGuire has a 155 in 52
- McGuire is a former #14 pick in the draft (which makes the possession of unrealized upside more credible)
- The team trading him hired Tony LaRussa as their manager ... and traded for Jake Diekmann and his contract
Also, why would the Red Sox know how to make "an easy tweak" to McGuire that nobody knows how to do? Like Chris said, I doubt the Sox dumped Vazquez because they instantly thought of McGuire as their catcher of the future. I do suspect that McGuire does wind up platooning with Wong and that McGuire won't hit that much. Easy tweak to implement if you're McGuire, not easy to figure out.
Nick Pivetta says hi. Note that I figured out why he had serious upside within a couple of days after the trade, just from splits available at b-Ref. The notion that everyone doing analytics is equal and that every organization is doing it the same way is not correct. I could say much more, but we'd be drifting off topic.
And that's because this would be a mechanical tweak, not an analytic tweak, and that's essentially the same thing as better player development, which is the newer thing where teams are not perceived at all as equal.
There is of course a long list of guys who changed organizations and blossomed very quickly. Justin Turner had a been in three organizations, and had 926 PA with a 92 OPS+ when the Dodgers signed him a FA. He had a .537 OPS in his first 30 G (86 PA) with them, then had a 1.030 the rest of the way and ended up with a 141 OPS+ in his first 4 seasons with them.
Nick Pivetta 2022 is about the same as Nick Pivetta 2015. I don’t think the Red Sox did anything that special with him… it is really just a case of the Phillies inexplicably giving up on him.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 31, 2022 9:58:56 GMT -5
Thinking the Red Sox "tweaked" McGuire is like thinking they tweaked Sandy Leon in 2016, when he hit .310.369.476.845 before having an OPS of 450-650 the next eight years. Nobody loves a small sample size like Eric.
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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 11:24:17 GMT -5
I think we can pretty much set the following in stone:
3B - Devers 2B - Story 1B/DH - Casas 1B/DH - Hosmer COF - Verdugo C - McGuire BENCH - Wong, Arroyo
That leaves SS, CF, and another outfield corner for the every day lineup, and then a 4th OF (Refsnyder?) and another infielder for the bench (Downs?). I think you're better off with Verdugo in left, but you can live with him in right if you have to. I could see Hosmer being dealt and having Dalbec as a bench guy with some positional versatility and value against lefties, but I think the most likely option is that Dalbec is either traded or kept in AAA as insurance.
Do you think the team might consider re-signing Hernandez to be their starting SS rather than their starting CF? I doubt that would be Plan A (or even Plan B), but if they can't re-sign X or nab one of the big name shortstops, maybe they're still able to sign Haniger to play RF and either sign Nimmo for CF or trade for someone like Bryan Reynolds. I think they need to fill 2 of the 3 regular slots with impact hitters (I wouldn't count Hernandez as one), so if you can do that by signing two outfielders, I think you're okay missing the top of the SS market. Hernandez seems like he'd potentially be the best option available if you're not interested in Aledmys Diaz or old friend Jose Iglesias.
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