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Post by notstarboard on Aug 31, 2022 11:24:57 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of what has been posted here. Key wants are as follows: - Do not invest in C. McGuire and Wong should platoon to start the year.
- Do not invest in 1B. We'll already have Casas, Hosmer, and Dalbec for two 26-man spots.
- Do not invest in DH. We'll have plenty of solid bats off the bench and can play platoon splits. This will also let us rest guys to keep them more fresh and healthy throughout the year, and it'll save money for investing in other parts of the roster.
- Make a reasonable effort to retain Kiké and Bogaerts, but don't overpay for either. Kiké on a deal similar to his last one (~2/14) would be awesome. Xander on a deal in the neighborhood of the Story deal (6/140) would be fabulous, but I'd also be happier with fewer years at higher AAV.
- Make a reasonable effort to extend Devers, but again, don't overpay. Perhaps something in the 10/275 ballpark?
- Sign a top OF free agent. I don't want Judge. Let the Yankees lock him up long term and then let him hamstring them when he inevitably can't stay healthy. Nimmo would be excellent.
- Keep an eye out for good value player to round out the bench. Not mandatory, but it could be useful. Pham might be too rich, but maybe someone in the $3-6 million range with useful skills, like great defense or a good platoon bat.
- Put all remaining dollars into pitching. This could look a lot of different ways, but one example would be picking up Paxton's option or negotiating a slightly cheaper deal with him, signing one other Wacha/Hill tier SP, and picking up a quality MIRP.
In terms of dollars, I think all of this should be doable. Bogaerts (20 -> 25-28) and Devers (11 -> 27-30) combined might be making $25 million more than this year. Nimmo could be maybe $18-20 million per year (spitballing). A Paxton-option-tier FA (~13 mil AAV), a 2022 Wacha-tier FA (~7 mil AAV), and a quality MIRP (think a McHugh type; ~ 5 mil AAV) might be another $25 million. All together this'd cost ~$68 million. No need to count relievers in the Strahm/Diekman tier, since they'd roughly cancel out with Strahm and Diekman this year. Meanwhile we'd lose JDM (19.375), Eovaldi (17), Price (16), Wacha (7), Paxton (5.8), Hill (5), Pham (2.48), and Plawecki (2). All together that's just about $75 million coming off the books. ~$68 million in - ~$75 million out = -$7 million, and the luxury tax threshold goes up by $3 million next year so this'd be ~$10 million cheaper than the current roster. Raises for guys like Pivetta and Verdugo would shave millions off of that, but I still think there's a pathway to getting back under the LT in 2023 following this blueprint. Of course we could also ball out and sign one or more guys for short-term high AAV deals and go well over the tax (e.g. the Twins' Correa deal). Wouldn't be opposed to that either. I'd at least like to see what I described, though. When the dust settles, the final roster might look something like this: C: McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Story SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Verdugo CF: Hernandez RF: Nimmo Bench: Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder, two of: Dalbec/Hosmer/Duran/Cordero/FA SP: Sale, Paxton-option-tier FA, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello RP: Houck, Wacha-tier FA, McHugh-tier FA, Schreiber, Barnes, Crawford, two of: Winckowski/Taylor/Kelly/German/Bazardo/Ort With average injury luck, I'd expect this team to be squarely in the WC mix. In my unprofessional opinion I'd say somewhere in the ballpark of high 80s to low 90s wins. This team would also be primed to compete in 2024 and beyond. Catcher could stay constant until 2026, Casas has six years of control, Bogie/Devers/Story would have at least 3 years and probably 5-6 years left together, Verdugo and Kiké would have 2 more years, and Nimmo might have 5 years too. Pitching wise, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Schreiber, Winck, Crawford, and any WooSox guys who stick would also be back for 2024 (and most of them quite a bit longer). Provided the pipeline from AAA keeps flowing as we hope it will, this team could be darned good for a long time. Edit: Forgot Barnes
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2022 11:54:22 GMT -5
So I looked at McGuire splits, last July in 21 games he hit .344 .385 .492 .876. So he's shown you before he can have big months, the key is stringing them together. Otherwise it's just a hot streak every player has in a season. Excellent catch!
And in fact there's a little bit of evidence that he just happened to be traded as he was getting himself into a hot streak. He started four games from July 7 to July 15 and was just brutal, 1/11, 2B, .093 /.115 xwOBA / wOBA.
On the 17th he pinch-hit in the 8th inning with his team up 11-0 and greeted new reliever Jharel Cotton with a well-placed (.400 xBA) line drive 2B, 100.6 mph. Cotton this year was the Twins' version of Phillips Valdez, an up and down guy who got good results. He got Abreu and Moncada impressively but gave up a 106.6 barrel line drive out to Gavin Sheets. We have no idea how tough the pitch McGuire hit was, but even if it was a cookie, that he hit it hard would be a good sign. In the 9th he fanned swinging against Emilio Pagan, who was apparently getting some work in.
He started on the 23rd and hit two marginally hard (96.0, 96.1) ground balls off of Guardian's rookie Konnor Pilkington, total expected hits, .69, and then hit a 99.3 lineout against Bryan Shaw (.72 expected hit). A good day.
The joker in this deck was that his last start for Their Sox was on the 29th against the A's, and he did nothing. James Kaprelian popped him up in the 3rd and fanned him swinging on 3 pitches in the 5th. He had an 83.9 mph groundout off Domingo Acevedo in his final PA, a ball hit weekly enough that it had .41 expected hits, and that gave him an inflated .132 xwOBA to go with his .000 wOBA.
All 18 games with Our Sox have been better than that in terms of wOBA / xwOBA.
The way to do this properly, of course, is to grab his entire career game log from Stacast and identify hit hot stretches. I'm likely to do that at some point.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2022 12:24:03 GMT -5
Thinking the Red Sox "tweaked" McGuire is like thinking they tweaked Sandy Leon in 2016, when he hit .310.369.476.845 before having an OPS of 450-650 the next eight years. Nobody loves a small sample size like Eric. Guilty as charged! More often than not they're illusions. But the first step is always to test whether what you're seeing is highly unusual, and if it is, I'm going to a) look further to see how real it is, and b) suggest that it might be real, because wouldn't that be great!
Re Leon ... that was definitely for real. But this happens occasionally -- a guy changes his approach and turns his former cold zones into hot ones, and goes crazy until the league adjusts, at which point he's back to where he was. The day before the Varitek / A-Rod, Bill Mueller walk-off game, I saw Kevin Millar hit three homers using a new open stance (he mentioned that on the air a while ago). I vaguely recall reports that Leon had made the proverbial "adjustment."
I did point out that if they did find a tweak for McGuire, it might well not last for that reason.
In any case, whether he's the starting catcher or just an excellent backup next year, he's going to come in handy.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 12:53:06 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of what has been posted here. Key wants are as follows: - Do not invest in C. McGuire and Wong should platoon to start the year.
- Do not invest in 1B. We'll already have Casas, Hosmer, and Dalbec for two 26-man spots.
- Do not invest in DH. We'll have plenty of solid bats off the bench and can play platoon splits. This will also let us rest guys to keep them more fresh and healthy throughout the year, and it'll save money for investing in other parts of the roster.
- Make a reasonable effort to retain Kiké and Bogaerts, but don't overpay for either. Kiké on a deal similar to his last one (~2/14) would be awesome. Xander on a deal in the neighborhood of the Story deal (6/140) would be fabulous, but I'd also be happier with fewer years at higher AAV.
- Make a reasonable effort to extend Devers, but again, don't overpay. Perhaps something in the 10/275 ballpark?
- Sign a top OF free agent. I don't want Judge. Let the Yankees lock him up long term and then let him hamstring them when he inevitably can't stay healthy. Nimmo would be excellent.
- Keep an eye out for good value player to round out the bench. Not mandatory, but it could be useful. Pham might be too rich, but maybe someone in the $3-6 million range with useful skills, like great defense or a good platoon bat.
- Put all remaining dollars into pitching. This could look a lot of different ways, but one example would be picking up Paxton's option or negotiating a slightly cheaper deal with him, signing one other Wacha/Hill tier SP, and picking up a quality MIRP.
In terms of dollars, I think all of this should be doable. Bogaerts (20 -> 25-28) and Devers (11 -> 27-30) combined might be making $25 million more than this year. Nimmo could be maybe $18-20 million per year (spitballing). A Paxton-option-tier FA (~13 mil AAV), a 2022 Wacha-tier FA (~7 mil AAV), and a quality MIRP (think a McHugh type; ~ 5 mil AAV) might be another $25 million. All together this'd cost ~$68 million. No need to count relievers in the Strahm/Diekman tier, since they'd roughly cancel out with Strahm and Diekman this year. Meanwhile we'd lose JDM (19.375), Eovaldi (17), Price (16), Wacha (7), Paxton (5.8), Hill (5), Pham (2.48), and Plawecki (2). All together that's just about $75 million coming off the books. ~$68 million in - ~$75 million out = -$7 million, and the luxury tax threshold goes up by $3 million next year so this'd be ~$10 million cheaper than the current roster. Raises for guys like Pivetta and Verdugo would shave millions off of that, but I still think there's a pathway to getting back under the LT in 2023 following this blueprint. Of course we could also ball out and sign one or more guys for short-term high AAV deals and go well the tax (e.g. the Twins' Correa deal). Wouldn't be opposed to that either. I'd at least like to see what I described, though. When the dust settles, the final roster might look something like this: C: McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Story SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Verdugo CF: Hernandez RF: Nimmo Bench: Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder, two of: Dalbec/Hosmer/Duran/Cordero/FA SP: Sale, Paxton-option-tier FA, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello RP: Houck, Wacha-tier FA, McHugh-tier FA, Schreiber, Winckowski, Crawford, two of: Taylor/Kelly/German/Bazardo/Ort With average injury luck, I'd expect this team to be squarely in the WC mix. In my unprofessional opinion I'd say somewhere in the ballpark of high 80s to low 90s wins. This team would also be primed to compete in 2024 and beyond. Catcher could stay constant until 2026, Casas has six years of control, Bogie/Devers/Story would have at least 3 years and probably 5-6 years left together, Verdugo and Kiké would have 2 more years, and Nimmo might have 5 years too. Pitching wise, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Schreiber, Winck, Crawford, and any WooSox guys who stick would also be back for 2024 (and most of them quite a bit longer). Provided the pipeline from AAA keeps flowing as we hope it will, this team could be darned good for a long time. Endorse this part wholeheartedly. Not as confident as you are in the catchers. McGuire is a lifetime cumulative 2.0 bWAR in his entire career and will be 28 next year. Conor Wong is a career minor leaguer who will be 27 next year. Current very small samples notwithstanding, there is zero indication either one of these guys is anything but a backup at best. ZiPS and Steamer has him as a 0.7fWAR player each of the next 3 years. Wong is nice to stash in AAA for his versatility, but there is no indication he is anything but a marginal MLB bench player, or perhaps a once-a-week backup catcher. ZiPS and Steamer have him as a 0.0 fWAR player in each of the next 3 years. I think we can do without that unless there is an emergency. I would be elated if they extend Bogaerts, and in fact, they may decide they can afford him over Devers. But if that's not the case, he's gone. Bloom's offers to him and Devers shows he doesn't want them here at market price. Henry and Werner may step in a authorize a bigger deal, but why should either of them take less than what free agency will net them? As for the pitching, given their history, I would not bank on Sale or Paxton to pitch a whole season. Also, Whitlock has never gone beyond 120 innings. The pen may take a completely different thread on its own. Schriber and Houck are for sures (if Houck's back is not fried with the disc issue). Also, Houck is dangerous as a closer as he still has an awful time with lefties. Crawford seems like a pretty good bet, or they may want him in AAA to see if he can get better as a starter.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 31, 2022 13:52:31 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of what has been posted here. Key wants are as follows: - Do not invest in C. McGuire and Wong should platoon to start the year.
- Do not invest in 1B. We'll already have Casas, Hosmer, and Dalbec for two 26-man spots.
- Do not invest in DH. We'll have plenty of solid bats off the bench and can play platoon splits. This will also let us rest guys to keep them more fresh and healthy throughout the year, and it'll save money for investing in other parts of the roster.
- Make a reasonable effort to retain Kiké and Bogaerts, but don't overpay for either. Kiké on a deal similar to his last one (~2/14) would be awesome. Xander on a deal in the neighborhood of the Story deal (6/140) would be fabulous, but I'd also be happier with fewer years at higher AAV.
- Make a reasonable effort to extend Devers, but again, don't overpay. Perhaps something in the 10/275 ballpark?
- Sign a top OF free agent. I don't want Judge. Let the Yankees lock him up long term and then let him hamstring them when he inevitably can't stay healthy. Nimmo would be excellent.
- Keep an eye out for good value player to round out the bench. Not mandatory, but it could be useful. Pham might be too rich, but maybe someone in the $3-6 million range with useful skills, like great defense or a good platoon bat.
- Put all remaining dollars into pitching. This could look a lot of different ways, but one example would be picking up Paxton's option or negotiating a slightly cheaper deal with him, signing one other Wacha/Hill tier SP, and picking up a quality MIRP.
In terms of dollars, I think all of this should be doable. Bogaerts (20 -> 25-28) and Devers (11 -> 27-30) combined might be making $25 million more than this year. Nimmo could be maybe $18-20 million per year (spitballing). A Paxton-option-tier FA (~13 mil AAV), a 2022 Wacha-tier FA (~7 mil AAV), and a quality MIRP (think a McHugh type; ~ 5 mil AAV) might be another $25 million. All together this'd cost ~$68 million. No need to count relievers in the Strahm/Diekman tier, since they'd roughly cancel out with Strahm and Diekman this year. Meanwhile we'd lose JDM (19.375), Eovaldi (17), Price (16), Wacha (7), Paxton (5.8), Hill (5), Pham (2.48), and Plawecki (2). All together that's just about $75 million coming off the books. ~$68 million in - ~$75 million out = -$7 million, and the luxury tax threshold goes up by $3 million next year so this'd be ~$10 million cheaper than the current roster. Raises for guys like Pivetta and Verdugo would shave millions off of that, but I still think there's a pathway to getting back under the LT in 2023 following this blueprint. Of course we could also ball out and sign one or more guys for short-term high AAV deals and go well the tax (e.g. the Twins' Correa deal). Wouldn't be opposed to that either. I'd at least like to see what I described, though. When the dust settles, the final roster might look something like this: C: McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Story SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Verdugo CF: Hernandez RF: Nimmo Bench: Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder, two of: Dalbec/Hosmer/Duran/Cordero/FA SP: Sale, Paxton-option-tier FA, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello RP: Houck, Wacha-tier FA, McHugh-tier FA, Schreiber, Winckowski, Crawford, two of: Taylor/Kelly/German/Bazardo/Ort With average injury luck, I'd expect this team to be squarely in the WC mix. In my unprofessional opinion I'd say somewhere in the ballpark of high 80s to low 90s wins. This team would also be primed to compete in 2024 and beyond. Catcher could stay constant until 2026, Casas has six years of control, Bogie/Devers/Story would have at least 3 years and probably 5-6 years left together, Verdugo and Kiké would have 2 more years, and Nimmo might have 5 years too. Pitching wise, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Schreiber, Winck, Crawford, and any WooSox guys who stick would also be back for 2024 (and most of them quite a bit longer). Provided the pipeline from AAA keeps flowing as we hope it will, this team could be darned good for a long time. Endorse this part wholeheartedly. Not as confident as you are in the catchers. McGuire is a lifetime cumulative 2.0 bWAR in his entire career and will be 28 next year. Conor Wong is a career minor leaguer who will be 27 next year. Current very small samples notwithstanding, there is zero indication either one of these guys is anything but a backup at best. ZiPS and Steamer has him as a 0.7fWAR player each of the next 3 years. Wong is nice to stash in AAA for his versatility, but there is no indication he is anything but a marginal MLB bench player, or perhaps a once-a-week backup catcher. ZiPS and Steamer have him as a 0.0 fWAR player in each of the next 3 years. I think we can do without that unless there is an emergency. I would be elated if they extend Bogaerts, and in fact, they may decide they can afford him over Devers. But if that's not the case, he's gone. Bloom's offers to him and Devers shows he doesn't want them here at market price. Henry and Werner may step in a authorize a bigger deal, but why should either of them take less than what free agency will net them? As for the pitching, given their history, I would not bank on Sale or Paxton to pitch a whole season. Also, Whitlock has never gone beyond 120 innings. The pen may take a completely different thread on its own. Schriber and Houck are for sures (if Houck's back is not fried with the disc issue). Also, Houck is dangerous as a closer as he still has an awful time with lefties. Crawford seems like a pretty good bet, or they may want him in AAA to see if he can get better as a starter. McGuire is a lifetime 2.0 bWAR / 3.4 fWAR catcher, but only in 622 career PA. That's easily a starting catcher on a rate basis. Meanwhile no one questions Wong's defense and he's raking in AAA. Raking in AAA is no guarantee of MLB success - far from it - but he doesn't need to be an all-around catcher to be valuable. He'd be playing more heavily against LHP (which should help the bat), playing a position where you can live with a weaker bat, and making league minimum $. Even if he doesn't hit at all and just plays solid defense, that's still fine as a catcher playing the weak side of a platoon. Hard to do worse than Plawecki's $2 million for -0.6 fWAR this year with 52 wRC+ and 36/40 SB allowed. That's not exactly the bar to clear, but still, it's telling that he's survived the year on the roster despite his performance and this being his walk year. There just aren't that many good catchers in MLB.
I don't see any reason to expect Sale to have a greater than normal injury risk next year. I agree about Paxton, but in my proposal we'd already have 8-10 guys capable of starting a game on the ML roster alone. You don't need every pitcher to make it through the year. I won't get too far into that in this thread - already got carried away in my last post instead of limiting it to position players
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 31, 2022 14:02:32 GMT -5
This thread should be deleted. This is a thread to guess which guys will resign? I’m flabbergasted. There’s a 2023 rotation thread, how exactly is this any different? I bet Tommy Pham is in the mix next year Totally agree! Pham has been great and I see Bloom offering two years or one plus an option. Pham’s swing seems to be a good fit in Fenway.
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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 14:21:15 GMT -5
As I look at it, they've got to fill CF, a corner outfield spot, and SS, and they probably need 2 of those guys to be solidly above-average hitters given that you can't count on Casas to jump in as a big bopper from the jump. I think Pham is probably too costly to bring in as a 4th OF and it would be dangerous to rely on him as an impact bat on the level of the top outfield free agents. If you want Pham to be a starter, that places an even greater importance on landing Correa, Turner, Swanson, or Bogaerts at shortstop and making a splash in center field.
The more I walk this stuff through, the more I'm hoping Bloom strikes early in the offseason. I'd hate for them to sign a couple of platoon corner outfielders thinking that one of the elite shortstops will still be available at a lower cost in January or February, only to miss out entirely and wind up needing to just sign a warm body.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 31, 2022 14:34:18 GMT -5
I think we can pretty much set the following in stone: 3B - Devers 2B - Story 1B/DH - Casas 1B/DH - Hosmer COF - Verdugo C - McGuire BENCH - Wong, Arroyo That leaves SS, CF, and another outfield corner for the every day lineup, and then a 4th OF (Refsnyder?) and another infielder for the bench (Downs?). I think you're better off with Verdugo in left, but you can live with him in right if you have to. I could see Hosmer being dealt and having Dalbec as a bench guy with some positional versatility and value against lefties, but I think the most likely option is that Dalbec is either traded or kept in AAA as insurance. Do you think the team might consider re-signing Hernandez to be their starting SS rather than their starting CF? I doubt that would be Plan A (or even Plan B), but if they can't re-sign X or nab one of the big name shortstops, maybe they're still able to sign Haniger to play RF and either sign Nimmo for CF or trade for someone like Bryan Reynolds. I think they need to fill 2 of the 3 regular slots with impact hitters (I wouldn't count Hernandez as one), so if you can do that by signing two outfielders, I think you're okay missing the top of the SS market. Hernandez seems like he'd potentially be the best option available if you're not interested in Aledmys Diaz or old friend Jose Iglesias. I like your brainstorming, but before Hernandez plays SS, the Red Sox would simply move Story to SS and have Hernandez play second. Actually Story would play SS, Arroyo would play 2B until he gets hurt, and only then would Hernandez play 2B.
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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 14:49:02 GMT -5
I think we can pretty much set the following in stone: 3B - Devers 2B - Story 1B/DH - Casas 1B/DH - Hosmer COF - Verdugo C - McGuire BENCH - Wong, Arroyo That leaves SS, CF, and another outfield corner for the every day lineup, and then a 4th OF (Refsnyder?) and another infielder for the bench (Downs?). I think you're better off with Verdugo in left, but you can live with him in right if you have to. I could see Hosmer being dealt and having Dalbec as a bench guy with some positional versatility and value against lefties, but I think the most likely option is that Dalbec is either traded or kept in AAA as insurance. Do you think the team might consider re-signing Hernandez to be their starting SS rather than their starting CF? I doubt that would be Plan A (or even Plan B), but if they can't re-sign X or nab one of the big name shortstops, maybe they're still able to sign Haniger to play RF and either sign Nimmo for CF or trade for someone like Bryan Reynolds. I think they need to fill 2 of the 3 regular slots with impact hitters (I wouldn't count Hernandez as one), so if you can do that by signing two outfielders, I think you're okay missing the top of the SS market. Hernandez seems like he'd potentially be the best option available if you're not interested in Aledmys Diaz or old friend Jose Iglesias. I like your brainstorming, but before Hernandez plays SS, the Red Sox would simply move Story to SS and have Hernandez play second. Actually Story would play SS, Arroyo would play 2B until he gets hurt, and only then would Hernandez play 2B. LOL, that's probably exactly what happens if they try starting Arroyo. I think there's some question about whether or not Story has the arm to play SS at this point, but some of that might be an "echo chamber" effect amplifying speculation. I could see them trying that if they can't get a top SS free agent, though.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 31, 2022 15:17:02 GMT -5
To me Hosmer/Casas does not seem like the best 1B/DH tandem. Hosmer is a decent hitter but his best strength is defense and moving him to DH doesn't make the best use of that. Likewise, moving Casas to DH wouldn't give him an opportunity to fully blossom at the major league level. Both are also LH hitters so that doesn't really lend itself to a platoon unless someone has a reverse split (haven't looked at that).
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 16:30:57 GMT -5
To me Hosmer/Casas does not seem like the best 1B/DH tandem. Hosmer is a decent hitter but his best strength is defense and moving him to DH doesn't make the best use of that. Likewise, moving Casas to DH wouldn't give him an opportunity to fully blossom at the major league level. Both are also LH hitters so that doesn't really lend itself to a platoon unless someone has a reverse split (haven't looked at that). Fangraphs disagrees with this rather strongly. www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1BHe’s also been a meh hitter since 2018. Given his age, he does not project to get better.
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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 16:54:04 GMT -5
I don't love the Hosmer/Casas 1B/DH tandem in the abstract, but it's literally the cheapest option available and is probably competent enough that they can focus on other areas. The thing to do might be to deal Hosmer (somebody will value professionalism on a league minimum deal) and have Dalbec as a backup corner infielder and lefty-mashing DH.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 17:05:20 GMT -5
I don't love the Hosmer/Casas 1B/DH tandem in the abstract, but it's literally the cheapest option available and is probably competent enough that they can focus on other areas. The thing to do might be to deal Hosmer (somebody will value professionalism on a league minimum deal) and have Dalbec as a backup corner infielder and lefty-mashing DH. This works for me. I still hate that people are thinking like the Sox are the Pirates in terms of allocation of resources for positions of need, but for first, it may work. Still, I am not sure how much they should expect from Casas in his rookie year, especially given his current issues against LHP.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 31, 2022 17:06:05 GMT -5
To me Hosmer/Casas does not seem like the best 1B/DH tandem. Hosmer is a decent hitter but his best strength is defense and moving him to DH doesn't make the best use of that. Likewise, moving Casas to DH wouldn't give him an opportunity to fully blossom at the major league level. Both are also LH hitters so that doesn't really lend itself to a platoon unless someone has a reverse split (haven't looked at that). Fangraphs disagrees with this rather strongly. www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1BHe’s also been a meh hitter since 2018. Given his age, he does not project to get better. I am confused... Are you suggesting that Fangraphs indicates Hosmer is a better offensive player than he is a defensive player....or just bad at both??
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 17:29:45 GMT -5
I am confused... Are you suggesting that Fangraphs indicates Hosmer is a better offensive player than he is a defensive player....or just bad at both?? Bad at defense and meh at offense. He is better than what we ran out this year, but that is a subterranean bar to hurdle.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2022 18:23:27 GMT -5
To me Hosmer/Casas does not seem like the best 1B/DH tandem. Hosmer is a decent hitter but his best strength is defense and moving him to DH doesn't make the best use of that. Likewise, moving Casas to DH wouldn't give him an opportunity to fully blossom at the major league level. Both are also LH hitters so that doesn't really lend itself to a platoon unless someone has a reverse split (haven't looked at that). Fangraphs disagrees with this rather strongly. www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1BHe’s also been a meh hitter since 2018. Given his age, he does not project to get better. Yeah, if Hosmer is the DH in 2023 that's a recipe for mediocrity. You don't have to be a good fielder to DH, so your bat needs to be special. Duh. The Sox have had Ortiz and JDM and a huge advantage over other teams. You DH Hosmer and you get a middling hitter who's not getting better. Basically a DH without power who doesn't hit enough to be anything offensively special. My hope is they hang onto Hosmer until the second Casas is ready. Then they can get rid of him or keep him as a PH off the bench.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 18:47:15 GMT -5
Yeah, if Hosmer is the DH in 2023 that's a recipe for mediocrity. You don't have to be a good fielder to DH, so your bat needs to be special. Duh. The Sox have had Ortiz and JDM and a huge advantage over other teams. You DH Hosmer and you get a middling hitter who's not getting better. Basically a DH without power who doesn't hit enough to be anything offensively special. My hope is they hang onto Hosmer until the second Casas is ready. Then they can get rid of him or keep him as a PH off the bench. Hosmer has actually had reverse splits this year. 121 wRC+. Even so, his slugging against lefties is .412. Not really what you want in a DH, unless you’re using him as a lead-off hitter. If that’s the case, he’s .357 OBP vs lefties but both those numbers are inflated by a completely unsustainable .387 BABIP. That is to say, it’s an outlier year. Before this year he’s not been good vs RHP or LHP since 2016. He’s been a sub 1.0 fWAR player since then. There’s a reason SD paid virtually his whole salary. The man is no longer good at baseball.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Aug 31, 2022 19:33:42 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of what has been posted here. Key wants are as follows: - Do not invest in C. McGuire and Wong should platoon to start the year.
- Do not invest in 1B. We'll already have Casas, Hosmer, and Dalbec for two 26-man spots.
- Do not invest in DH. We'll have plenty of solid bats off the bench and can play platoon splits. This will also let us rest guys to keep them more fresh and healthy throughout the year, and it'll save money for investing in other parts of the roster.
- Make a reasonable effort to retain Kiké and Bogaerts, but don't overpay for either. Kiké on a deal similar to his last one (~2/14) would be awesome. Xander on a deal in the neighborhood of the Story deal (6/140) would be fabulous, but I'd also be happier with fewer years at higher AAV.
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Lots of good ideas, but I would not put overpaying for Kiké and overpaying for Bogaerts in the same sentence. They should pay the market rate for Kiké. A great cf who's likely to have a .700 ops with defensive flexibility is a great asset. If it's 2/14, great, but if it's 2/18 or even more that's not going to hamstring them for years like the Price or Sale contract. I would offer Xander the Story deal structure but for more money. Overall he's better than Story.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2022 19:50:16 GMT -5
Pham is interesting. A 1ish fWAR player who is in decline. Prob a platoon player vs. LHP-only, but his good numbers this year vs. LHP .381 OBP, .887 OPS., 187. ISO, are hyperinflated by an unsustainable.380 BABIP. The year before it was substantially less at .241 as was his ISO, .137, .351 OBP and .689. OPS.
He’s having a plus year, but still only a 0.9 fWAR. He’s in decline and going to be 35. May best to walk away if he wants more than $4-5M and more than a year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2022 20:06:37 GMT -5
Yeah, if Hosmer is the DH in 2023 that's a recipe for mediocrity. You don't have to be a good fielder to DH, so your bat needs to be special. Duh. The Sox have had Ortiz and JDM and a huge advantage over other teams. You DH Hosmer and you get a middling hitter who's not getting better. Basically a DH without power who doesn't hit enough to be anything offensively special. My hope is they hang onto Hosmer until the second Casas is ready. Then they can get rid of him or keep him as a PH off the bench. Hosmer has actually had reverse splits this year. 121 wRC+. Even so, his slugging against lefties is .412. Not really what you want in a DH, unless you’re using him as a lead-off hitter. If that’s the case, he’s .357 OBP vs lefties but both those numbers are inflated by a completely unsustainable .387 BABIP. That is to say, it’s an outlier year. Before this year he’s not been good vs RHP or LHP since 2016. He’s been a sub 1.0 fWAR player since then. There’s a reason SD paid virtually his whole salary. The man is no longer good at baseball. Yup. And if he is DHing for them because they lack better options, well that's a path to mediocrity. They must do better at DH than Eric Hosmer.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 31, 2022 22:54:36 GMT -5
I just realized Bogaerts BA of .308 is the third highest in the AL (players with a qualifying number of at bats)! I wonder if the lack of spring training put a lot of players BA in such a hole that they could not reach their career average.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 1, 2022 8:45:59 GMT -5
I don't know if I'd consider him an outside the box target but he's one I haven't really seen brought up much but how about adding Jose Abreu to the 1st base/DH options? To me he'd be a perfect fit, if Casas is the real deal Abreu is certainly a better DH option than Hosmer and if they want to leave Casas down in the minors a bit longer they can play him at first base or DH him with Hosmer. Just a thought anyway, as with anyone it comes down to how much he'd cost. He is getting up there in age but can still hit very well I don't know if it gets it done but I'd be all for it for 2-3 years at the 18 AAV he's made the last couple years. He would be about as good an option to add to the middle of the line-up as almost any other free agent.
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 1, 2022 10:24:42 GMT -5
I just realized Bogaerts BA of .308 is the third highest in the AL (players with a qualifying number of at bats)! I wonder if the lack of spring training put a lot of players BA in such a hole that they could not reach their career average. BA is down all across baseball because it is no longer valued. Hitters are trained to hit HR's at the cost of increased K's, less hits, and decreased BA
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 1, 2022 10:30:45 GMT -5
I just realized Bogaerts BA of .308 is the third highest in the AL (players with a qualifying number of at bats)! I wonder if the lack of spring training put a lot of players BA in such a hole that they could not reach their career average. BA is down all across baseball because it is no longer valued. Hitters are trained to hit HR's at the cost of increased K's, less hits, and decreased BA I knew team are emphasizing HRs, but it is the amount of the decrease surprised me.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 1, 2022 10:52:38 GMT -5
I just realized Bogaerts BA of .308 is the third highest in the AL (players with a qualifying number of at bats)! I wonder if the lack of spring training put a lot of players BA in such a hole that they could not reach their career average. BA is down all across baseball because it is no longer valued. Hitters are trained to hit HR's at the cost of increased K's, less hits, and decreased BA It's not just that. wOBA has been trending down across baseball. Despite trying to adopt the more (statistically speaking) efficient approach that you described, hitters have been less efficient at the plate overall. Probably comes down to improved pitching quality and the league tinkering with the baseballs themselves.
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