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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 12, 2022 11:04:59 GMT -5
Enmanuel Valdez is a minor league FA. If the Red Sox put him on the 40-man does that eliminate the possibility he can sign with another team? Yes
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2022 11:34:22 GMT -5
Enmanuel Valdez is a minor league FA. If the Red Sox put him on the 40-man does that eliminate the possibility he can sign with another team? Yes Correct and just to add, would need to(/will) happen w/in 5 days after the World Series ends. They did this in 2017 with Bryce Brentz and Williams Jerez, actually (Brentz was then traded to Pittsburgh for cash that February, which is kind of weird in hindsight). Current list of MLFAs, FWIW. No other 40-man candidates, although I'm sure they'll try to re-sign some (Gettys, Keller, Mosqueda, and maybe Castellanos and Stewart stick out in particular depending on what the AAA roster needs). Pedro Castellanos Ricardo Cubillan Michael Gettys Deivy Grullón Kyle Hart Geoff Hartlieb Brian Keller Brett Kennedy Johan Mieses Oddanier Mosqueda José Peraza Hudson Potts Roberto Ramos Sterling Sharp Caleb Simpson Christin Stewart Enmanuel Valdez Izzy Wilson
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 12, 2022 11:43:57 GMT -5
Correct and just to add, would need to(/will) happen w/in 5 days after the World Series ends. They did this in 2017 with Bryce Brentz and Williams Jerez, actually (Brentz was then traded to Pittsburgh for cash that February, which is kind of weird in hindsight). Current list of MLFAs, FWIW. No other 40-man candidates, although I'm sure they'll try to re-sign some (Gettys, Keller, Mosqueda, and maybe Castellanos and Stewart stick out in particular depending on what the AAA roster needs). Pedro Castellanos Ricardo Cubillan Michael Gettys Deivy Grullón Kyle Hart Geoff Hartlieb Brian Keller Brett Kennedy Johan Mieses Oddanier Mosqueda José Peraza Hudson Potts Roberto Ramos Sterling Sharp Caleb Simpson Christin Stewart Enmanuel Valdez Izzy Wilson IMO, maybe half to a third of the list will be re-signed to minor league contracts as many did a good job in AA and AAA. I think Enmanuel Valdez will be added to the 40-man. I wonder if he would be considered for time at DH. I guess the individual player would re-sign unless they felt they would have a better chance of making the MLB with another organization. Bloom has promoted so AAA to the MLB it would be hard to imagine many of the players getting a better chance elsewhere.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2022 15:15:21 GMT -5
I've spent a whole bunch of hours diving deep into Brandon Nimmo's numbers (and numbers by lefty hitters in general), and I've reached a really painful conclusion about his likely free agent destination. I mean, think the worst.
(All the numbers here are for the last three years.)
First, here are some park factors for fly balls pulled by lefty hitters. These are wOBA multipliers, relative to all of MLB.
1.11 Rogers Centre (4th in MLB)
1.10 Camden Yards (6) 1.09 Yankee Stadium (7) 1.06 Tropicana Field (9) 0.90 Citi Field (24)
0.88 Fenway Park (25)
It's hard to build an offense that's equally as good in your own park and that of your division rivals if you're the Sox. It's amazingly easy if you're another AL East club. (Yes, that has to be a contributor to you-know-what). This division is nirvana for lefty home run hitters (or wannabes).
So, Nimmo. He has insane home / road splits for balls hit in the air. I broke it down six ways initially, pull / straightaway / opposite field x fly ball / line drive. To my relief, the line drive numbers did not vary significantly by direction and asked me to lump them together.
At home, Brandon Nimmo is in the 93rd percentile for wOBA in line drives. On the road, he's .... 12th. Sample sizes are 91 and 106, respectively.
It may or may not be kosher to lump his fly balls to right and center together. If you do that ... he's in the 35th percentile at home and 98th on the road. (And now you know who I think the "wannabe" might be. He doesn't hit a lot of these; he just gets terrific results when he does.)
For pulled flies, he's in the 53rd % at home and the 99th on the road.
For flies hit to CF, he's in the 10th percentile at home at and 87th on the road. What's really weird is that the park factor at home is 1.12.
The Fenway park factor for fly balls by lefties to center is 1.14. For LHB, the two parks play very much alike until you get to the opposite field. And he's having an awful year hitting at home.
And note that the only split here that Nimmo is above average in, home and away, is ... fly balls to right. Which is the split that's very bad in Fenway.
Fly balls to the opposite field? MLB average (for lefty hitters, on the road to remove the bias of teams building their lineup to their park) is .208. Nimmo is .163 at home and .030 on the road, sample sizes of 33 and 19 respectively. (I didn't bother with the % ranking for these.)
That's right, folks ... the only split where Nimmo is bad home and away is fly balls to LF ... where the Fenway park factor is 2.05. Yes, Fenway would help that suckage, but it would help someone who could actually hit hard flyballs to LF a lot more.
He really does seem to have two approaches ... at home he's trying to hit liners and on the road he's trying to lift the ball. I looked at his line drive numbers in every park, and there's some suggestion that he uses the home approach at some others, but all the other parks in the NL East, where the sample sizes are adequate, are neutral for pulled flyballs, so it's hard to draw any conclusions.
Now, I did use all these numbers to come up with Nimmo .359 wOBA (it went up to .361 while I did this!), .362 in a neutral park, and .366 in Fenway. But it sure seems to be the case that his projected numbers would be much better in a park where he could try to go yard when the pitch asked for it. Nimmo has a .379 wOBA on the road.
So, is there a team that's so thin in CF that they had to play their superstar RF there, and who may need to replace that guy too, and is a great park for Nimmo's road approach ... and one where he wouldn't have to move?
Kiermeier looks like a good fit for Femway. (You'll excuse for for waiting a few days to run his numbers!) He and Refsnyder would make a fine, inexpensive platoon. Use the saved money to get Abreu to DH, and a frontline starter.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 12, 2022 23:51:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox OF is 24th in fWAR this year. Granted that should improve if Kiké is healthy next year, but I would really hope they could do better than a platoon of Kiermeier/Refsnyder in RF with the amount of money Bloom has to work with.
With Nimmo like anyone else it all depends on price. I think he is a really good player and I would love to see him in RF. Only thing with him is I get really really strong JD Drew vibes just looking at his stats. That would be fine with me, but especially after the power outage this year, I am not sure how the fans would feel about giving ~$75+ million to a guy that will hit 10 HR/year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 13, 2022 0:03:11 GMT -5
.824 ops with plus defense in CF/RF isn’t worth 75 million?
I’d take 9 of those if I could.
Ironically that’s also Nimmo exact career OPS
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 13, 2022 0:29:38 GMT -5
JD Drew? Sign me up x100000
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Post by trotsdirtyhat on Sept 13, 2022 5:31:50 GMT -5
I’d like to know which names the Cubs would ask for in Ian Happ discussions. I think he’d be a good fit for LF if you move Verdugo to RF, which you could.
Happ only has one year remaining on his deal. Normally I’d say you could lock him up for longer with an extension but I’m not sure that’s Bloom’s MO. The player would also have to agree, obviously. Happ seems more like a Theo move than a Bloom move. Still, I like the player and he fits into the lineup well enough.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 13, 2022 9:54:25 GMT -5
I’d like to know which names the Cubs would ask for in Ian Happ discussions. I think he’d be a good fit for LF if you move Verdugo to RF, which you could. Happ only has one year remaining on his deal. Normally I’d say you could lock him up for longer with an extension but I’m not sure that’s Bloom’s MO. The player would also have to agree, obviously. Happ seems more like a Theo move than a Bloom move. Still, I like the player and he fits into the lineup well enough. Bloom trades away players with one year left rather than trading for them.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 13, 2022 10:05:27 GMT -5
I’d like to know which names the Cubs would ask for in Ian Happ discussions. I think he’d be a good fit for LF if you move Verdugo to RF, which you could. Happ only has one year remaining on his deal. Normally I’d say you could lock him up for longer with an extension but I’m not sure that’s Bloom’s MO. The player would also have to agree, obviously. Happ seems more like a Theo move than a Bloom move. Still, I like the player and he fits into the lineup well enough. Bloom trades away players with one year left rather than trading for them. Kyle Schwarber says hello
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 13, 2022 10:25:04 GMT -5
Cubs aren't going to get much for Happ. Looks like a 2-2.5 WAR player heading for a 12 million pay day in his last year of arb
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2022 11:08:46 GMT -5
Bloom trades away players with one year left rather than trading for them. Kyle Schwarber says hello As do Hansel Robles and (effectively) Tommy Pham.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 13, 2022 11:25:50 GMT -5
To be fair, he's trading for close to 1/3 a season with those guys, specifically Schwarber who was injured and came back until mid august. I would expect trading a full season of player control during the offseason nets you a bit more of a return. Especially nowadays.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2022 12:32:22 GMT -5
I’d like to know which names the Cubs would ask for in Ian Happ discussions. I think he’d be a good fit for LF if you move Verdugo to RF, which you could. Happ only has one year remaining on his deal. Normally I’d say you could lock him up for longer with an extension but I’m not sure that’s Bloom’s MO. The player would also have to agree, obviously. Happ seems more like a Theo move than a Bloom move. Still, I like the player and he fits into the lineup well enough. When we got Verdugo, he was a good enough defender to play RF in Fenway. He's apparently put on weight since then.
Even if they end up finding a RF, they should sit him down and tell him it's time to turn himself into an age-27 start by getting in the proverbial Best Shape of His Life. But finding a guy who can play LR in Fenway would be hugely easier than finding a RF.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 13, 2022 13:28:11 GMT -5
I’d like to know which names the Cubs would ask for in Ian Happ discussions. I think he’d be a good fit for LF if you move Verdugo to RF, which you could. Happ only has one year remaining on his deal. Normally I’d say you could lock him up for longer with an extension but I’m not sure that’s Bloom’s MO. The player would also have to agree, obviously. Happ seems more like a Theo move than a Bloom move. Still, I like the player and he fits into the lineup well enough. When we got Verdugo, he was a good enough defender to play RF in Fenway. He's apparently put on weight since then.
Even if they end up finding a RF, they should sit him down and tell him it's time to turn himself into an age-27 start by getting in the proverbial Best Shape of His Life. But finding a guy who can play LR in Fenway would be hugely easier than finding a RF.
My lady friend, who refers to Verdugo as "Angel Baby," observed that he's been visibly losing weight over the course of the season. It would be interesting to know if his defensive metrics have been improving over that timeframe as well, but I don't know how to look that up.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 13, 2022 13:31:54 GMT -5
Kyle Schwarber says hello As do Hansel Robles and (effectively) Tommy Pham. And Ottavino? I could be wrong there.
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bg23
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Post by bg23 on Sept 13, 2022 14:25:34 GMT -5
As do Hansel Robles and (effectively) Tommy Pham. And Ottavino? I could be wrong there. I do not think any of these players fit the same mold as Ian Happ would. Ottavino was acquired with Frank German attached, so the deal was likely more so about German than Ottavino. Although Ottavino was helpful, particularly in the first half of '21. As far as Robles, Pham, and Schwarber are concerned, they were acquired at the trade deadline in playoff pushes, which to me is a completely separate situation from an offseason trade. While Bloom has preferred to trade for rentals at the deadline (presumably due to the limited prospect cost), he has yet to trade meaningful prospects in an offseason for one year of a player. Comparing trade deadline rental acquisitions, bloated contracts, and offseason rental acquisitions are three completely separate types of trades, and Bloom seems to treat them very differently (although it's only been 3 years, all of this could change quickly in the next few years).
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Post by Guidas on Sept 14, 2022 9:46:50 GMT -5
Mr. Bloom and crew should make a decision on Devers early this off-season, especially with the possibility of Arenado opting out. He's already getting $30M AAV, but is also quite productive - currently a 6.8 fWAR/7.2 bWAR player - and a plus defensive player. Obviously older than Devers, but an interesting option even as he goes into slow decline.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 14, 2022 9:49:03 GMT -5
When we got Verdugo, he was a good enough defender to play RF in Fenway. He's apparently put on weight since then.
Even if they end up finding a RF, they should sit him down and tell him it's time to turn himself into an age-27 start by getting in the proverbial Best Shape of His Life. But finding a guy who can play LR in Fenway would be hugely easier than finding a RF.
My lady friend, who refers to Verdugo as "Angel Baby," observed that he's been visibly losing weight over the course of the season. It would be interesting to know if his defensive metrics have been improving over that timeframe as well, but I don't know how to look that up. He's got known back issues. I wonder if the size he came in at was health related, as I remember he was slow to even get into games in ST these past two years. Hook that man up with a personal chef.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 14, 2022 13:22:00 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well.
If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit.
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Post by seamus on Sept 14, 2022 14:53:49 GMT -5
I have a very hard time seeing Bogaerts as a better player in the long-term than Devers. Even if you think Bogey will age better (I don't), Raffy will be 26 next year while Bogey will be 30, and four years is practically a generation in baseball terms. I could see the Sox choosing Bogaerts over Devers, but I think that would be motivated by their price tags, not how good they are in absolute terms. I certainly hope the Sox choose Devers, though I'd be glad to have both if Bogey's price this winter was the most reasonable of the big 4 shortstops.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 14, 2022 15:54:09 GMT -5
I have a very hard time seeing Bogaerts as a better player in the long-term than Devers. Even if you think Bogey will age better (I don't), Raffy will be 26 next year while Bogey will be 30, and four years is practically a generation in baseball terms. I could see the Sox choosing Bogaerts over Devers, but I think that would be motivated by their price tags, not how good they are in absolute terms. I certainly hope the Sox choose Devers, though I'd be glad to have both if Bogey's price this winter was the most reasonable of the big 4 shortstops. I agree age is a big factor here, but that's where the price comes into it. From all reports, it seems like Devers is looking for something in the neighborhood of 10 years/$300 million. And while that would only be through his age 35 season, which isn't all that old, the thing you have to worry about with him is his defense. If he moves off of 3B, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility, that contract would become an albatross. I don't know what the best path forward is honestly. I've always been interested in seeing Xander at 3B to see if his glove would play up. But regardless of what happens, I will be sad to see either of them leave. They are both really good players, and will be for a good chunk of the next decade.
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bigmarty58
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Post by bigmarty58 on Sept 14, 2022 17:01:39 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well. If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit. If you get to only keep one I agree with your thought. Sign Xander 6-8 years at 25 per. Devers if traded in the winter, will bring back another premium player preferably a 1-2 pitcher. Pick up a 3b player possibly someone like Brandon Drury for 2-3 years to get by until Mayer comes up then move Xander to third. Bloom then will need to sign another outfielder let's say Brandon Nimmo to center and move Kiki to right. Add Edwin Díaz or Taylor Rogers in the pen and you are in the playoff hunt next season.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 14, 2022 17:32:09 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well. If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit. If you get to only keep one I agree with your thought. Sign Xander 6-8 years at 25 per. Devers if traded in the winter, will bring back another premium player preferably a 1-2 pitcher. Pick up a 3b player possibly someone like Brandon Drury for 2-3 years to get by until Mayer comes up then move Xander to third. Bloom then will need to sign another outfielder let's say Brandon Nimmo to center and move Kiki to right. Add Edwin Díaz or Taylor Rogers in the pen and you are in the playoff hunt next season. There's almost a 0 percent chance Bloom would sign Diaz nor would I want him at the rumored possibility he gets 100 mil. If they deal rafy they'd better replace him with someone better than Drury.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 15, 2022 9:29:40 GMT -5
Since this is the position player thread, I need to ask: What is the position player core they will build around going forward?
On the 2014-18 teams that won the Division three times and the WS in 2018, you had: JBJ Betts Bogaerts Vazquez Benintendi Devers
The first four arrived more or less together, and the other two in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Looking forward - without extension of Devers or Xander or both, here's what I see:
Casas - 2023, although he's got to learn to do better against lefties, or he becomes a platoon player.
Rafaela - mid to late 2023 or 2024. The caveat here is they could decide to go with him out of camp because of his OF defense (unlikely but possible, say, if Kiké gets hurt again). He still needs to learn to control the zone, walk more and not chase.
Mayer - Late 2024 or starting in 2025. The latter may be the choice of the front office for control purposes.
Yorke is iffy right now. He was injured for 1/3 of this year but struggled after. He may be able to reclaim last year's excellence, or it may be just another prospect with promise who fizzled.
Bleis - maybe 2025 or 2026, but so far away and he's never seen advanced pitching.
So right now, that's three guys who look for sure, but not together and not all together until late 2024 or 2025 if they stay on track.
That's...not enough. Going to need a lot more trades and FAs to make this a playoff team next year and going forward. Does that sound reasonable?
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