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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 15, 2022 9:40:52 GMT -5
Since this is the position player thread, I need to ask: What is the position player core they will build around going forward? On the 2014-18 teams that won the Division three times and the WS in 2018, you had: JBJ Betts Bogaerts Vazquez Benintendi Devers
The first four arrived more or less together, and the other two in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Looking forward - without extension of Devers or Xander or both, here's what I see: Casas - 2023, although he's got to learn to do better against lefties, or he becomes a platoon player. Rafaela - mid to late 2023 or 2024. The caveat here is they could decide to go with him out of camp because of his OF defense (unlikely but possible, say, if Kiké gets hurt again). He still needs to learn to control the zone, walk more and not chase. Mayer - Late 2024 or starting in 2025. The latter may be the choice of the front office for control purposes. Yorke is iffy right now. He was injured for 1/3 of this year but struggled after. He may be able to reclaim last year's excellence, or it may be just another prospect with promise who fizzled. Bleis - maybe 2025 or 2026, but so far away and he's never seen advanced pitching. So right now, that's three guys who look for sure, but not together and not all together until late 2024 or 2025 if they stay on track. That's...not enough. Going to need a lot more trades and FAs to make this a playoff team next year and going forward. Does that sound reasonable? Well if those three all hit to become regulars in the time frame you point out, you're still going to have Story, presumably one of Raffy and or X/Major FA SS and hopefully controlled OF acquisition this offseason. So that's 6-7 with the only spots left to fill DH/3rd base/Catcher by my count. Now that is in a completely ideal world where everything goes there way in the next few years, which quite honestly isn't all that likely to happen. It certainly doesn't seem likely they will have 6 home grown regulars like they did from 2014-2018 but that was probably more of a lucky break than something that is likely to happen again. They can still build a competitive team without having 6 of the starting 9 being home grown.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 15, 2022 10:00:43 GMT -5
Since this is the position player thread, I need to ask: What is the position player core they will build around going forward? On the 2014-18 teams that won the Division three times and the WS in 2018, you had: JBJ Betts Bogaerts Vazquez Benintendi Devers
The first four arrived more or less together, and the other two in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Looking forward - without extension of Devers or Xander or both, here's what I see: Casas - 2023, although he's got to learn to do better against lefties, or he becomes a platoon player. Rafaela - mid to late 2023 or 2024. The caveat here is they could decide to go with him out of camp because of his OF defense (unlikely but possible, say, if Kiké gets hurt again). He still needs to learn to control the zone, walk more and not chase. Mayer - Late 2024 or starting in 2025. The latter may be the choice of the front office for control purposes. Yorke is iffy right now. He was injured for 1/3 of this year but struggled after. He may be able to reclaim last year's excellence, or it may be just another prospect with promise who fizzled. Bleis - maybe 2025 or 2026, but so far away and he's never seen advanced pitching. So right now, that's three guys who look for sure, but not together and not all together until late 2024 or 2025 if they stay on track. That's...not enough. Going to need a lot more trades and FAs to make this a playoff team next year and going forward. Does that sound reasonable? Well if those three all hit to become regulars in the time frame you point out, you're still going to have Story, presumably one of Raffy and or X/Major FA SS and hopefully controlled OF acquisition this offseason. So that's 6-7 with the only spots left to fill DH/3rd base/Catcher by my count. Now that is in a completely ideal world where everything goes there way in the next few years, which quite honestly isn't all that likely to happen. It certainly doesn't seem likely they will have 6 home grown regulars like they did from 2014-2018 but that was probably more of a lucky break than something that is likely to happen again. They can still build a competitive team without having 6 of the starting 9 being home grown. I agree. I was thinking four homegrown position players as a "core" seems like a sound number. Anything more is a bonus. But the above still means that we won't see all together on the regular until late 2024 or 2025 at the earliest.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 15, 2022 10:08:54 GMT -5
While those 3 are important. We probably need Bleis and Mikey Romero to have a really good core. They’re only a year behind Marcelo. I can see Xander at 3b. Devers at 1b. Casas and Yorke dealt for pitching.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 15, 2022 10:10:59 GMT -5
Well if those three all hit to become regulars in the time frame you point out, you're still going to have Story, presumably one of Raffy and or X/Major FA SS and hopefully controlled OF acquisition this offseason. So that's 6-7 with the only spots left to fill DH/3rd base/Catcher by my count. Now that is in a completely ideal world where everything goes there way in the next few years, which quite honestly isn't all that likely to happen. It certainly doesn't seem likely they will have 6 home grown regulars like they did from 2014-2018 but that was probably more of a lucky break than something that is likely to happen again. They can still build a competitive team without having 6 of the starting 9 being home grown. I agree. I was thinking four homegrown position players as a "core" seems like a sound number. Anything more is a bonus. But the above still means that we won't see all together on the regular until late 2024 or 2025 at the earliest. I think that we are in agreement on that, I've been doing some thinking on 2023 and I really have a hard time predicting 2023 to be any sort of banner type year for the Sox. I think they'll be improved over this year, I think they could certainly make a run at one of the WC spots but I don't see them contending for a division title next year. There's just too many holes, a weak FA crop and not much if anything in the upper minors I would feel comfortable saying will provide much value next season since I'm counting Casas and Bello as major leaguers now and not upper minor players.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 15, 2022 10:37:17 GMT -5
Replacement level = 47.5 wins Payroll up to luxury tax limit at average free agent efficiency (8.5 million per win) = +25.5 wins = 73 wins. Worth noting that Chaim has beaten 8.5 wins per free agent WAR pretty handily so far.
So they need to add 12 surplus value wins to be a third wild card contender type team (85 wins), and another 5 to be a strong playoff favorite and lower level division contender.
Devers, Verdugo and Pivetta are all underpaid arb guys. Probably looking at like 8 WAR while paying for 4 WAR, so there's 4 surplus wins.
Then on minimum salary or small arb pay days you have Casas, McGuire, Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, Bello, Whitlock, Schreiber, Houck, Crawford and Winckowski. Plus they have like 8 legitimate prospects at AAA, maybe you have one or two breakouts that are contributing by June. If this group combines for like 10 WAR, then it will be a good season.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 15, 2022 11:19:24 GMT -5
Replacement level = 47.5 wins Payroll up to luxury tax limit at average free agent efficiency (8.5 million per win) = +25.5 wins = 73 wins. Worth noting that Chaim has beaten 8.5 wins per free agent WAR pretty handily so far. So they need to add 12 surplus value wins to be a third wild card contender type team (85 wins), and another 5 to be a strong playoff favorite and lower level division contender. Devers, Verdugo and Pivetta are all underpaid arb guys. Probably looking at like 8 WAR while paying for 4 WAR, so there's 4 surplus wins. Then on minimum salary or small arb pay days you have Casas, McGuire, Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, Bello, Whitlock, Schreiber, Houck, Crawford and Winckowski. Plus they have like 8 legitimate prospects at AAA, maybe you have one or two breakouts that are contributing by June. If this group combines for like 10 WAR, then it will be a good season. I think it'll take 91 wins or more in the AL, even with the new semi-balanced schedule, especially given Baltimore is on the rise and TB, TOR and NYY don't look to be going anywhere. The East is truly the beast, but the West is a mess, and the Central is weak as hell. One of the teams that doesn't win either of those divisions could pop up high again.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 15, 2022 11:29:22 GMT -5
Since this is the position player thread, I need to ask: What is the position player core they will build around going forward? On the 2014-18 teams that won the Division three times and the WS in 2018, you had: JBJ Betts Bogaerts Vazquez Benintendi Devers
The first four arrived more or less together, and the other two in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Looking forward - without extension of Devers or Xander or both, here's what I see: Casas - 2023, although he's got to learn to do better against lefties, or he becomes a platoon player. Rafaela - mid to late 2023 or 2024. The caveat here is they could decide to go with him out of camp because of his OF defense (unlikely but possible, say, if Kiké gets hurt again). He still needs to learn to control the zone, walk more and not chase. Mayer - Late 2024 or starting in 2025. The latter may be the choice of the front office for control purposes. Yorke is iffy right now. He was injured for 1/3 of this year but struggled after. He may be able to reclaim last year's excellence, or it may be just another prospect with promise who fizzled. Bleis - maybe 2025 or 2026, but so far away and he's never seen advanced pitching. So right now, that's three guys who look for sure, but not together and not all together until late 2024 or 2025 if they stay on track. That's...not enough. Going to need a lot more trades and FAs to make this a playoff team next year and going forward. Does that sound reasonable? Well keep in mind, I am confident that this offseason is going to be pretty nuts. The only players with guaranteed money on the roster beyond 2023 are (I think) Sale, Story, Whitlock and Hosmer. Everyone else will either be in arbitration or pre-arbitration, if they are even on the team. What the Boston Red Sox are going to look like from 2024-2027 will be determined this offseason by Bloom, considering the amount of money he has to work with. I would not be surprised if Bloom gives out more than $300 million in commitments before opening day 2023. The only other time the Red Sox have had this much money to work with was after the 2014 season, and that was the year Cherington gave ~$250 million to Hanley, Pablo and Porcello.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 15, 2022 11:50:33 GMT -5
Replacement level = 47.5 wins Payroll up to luxury tax limit at average free agent efficiency (8.5 million per win) = +25.5 wins = 73 wins. Worth noting that Chaim has beaten 8.5 wins per free agent WAR pretty handily so far. So they need to add 12 surplus value wins to be a third wild card contender type team (85 wins), and another 5 to be a strong playoff favorite and lower level division contender. Devers, Verdugo and Pivetta are all underpaid arb guys. Probably looking at like 8 WAR while paying for 4 WAR, so there's 4 surplus wins. Then on minimum salary or small arb pay days you have Casas, McGuire, Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, Bello, Whitlock, Schreiber, Houck, Crawford and Winckowski. Plus they have like 8 legitimate prospects at AAA, maybe you have one or two breakouts that are contributing by June. If this group combines for like 10 WAR, then it will be a good season. I think it'll take 91 wins or more in the AL, even with the new semi-balanced schedule, especially given Baltimore is on the rise and TB, TOR and NYY don't look to be going anywhere. The East is truly the beast, but the West is a mess, and the Central is weak as hell. One of the teams that doesn't win either of those divisions could pop up high again. I thought the rhyme went that Central is the one with the hairy chest?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 15, 2022 12:00:20 GMT -5
I think it'll take 91 wins or more in the AL, even with the new semi-balanced schedule, especially given Baltimore is on the rise and TB, TOR and NYY don't look to be going anywhere. The East is truly the beast, but the West is a mess, and the Central is weak as hell. One of the teams that doesn't win either of those divisions could pop up high again. I thought the rhyme went that Central is the one with the hairy chest? This is much better than what I had in mind (which is why I punted).
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Post by jdb on Sept 15, 2022 16:58:28 GMT -5
From the MLB trade rumors chat this guy still sees a non tender of Bellinger as likely with maybe $10+ incentives. With his D I think we could do a lot worse filling RF. With Fenway being a hitters park and prior relationships with Verdugo and Hernandez hopefully this happens. www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-15-22-13945.html
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2022 17:54:24 GMT -5
Well if those three all hit to become regulars in the time frame you point out, you're still going to have Story, presumably one of Raffy and or X/Major FA SS and hopefully controlled OF acquisition this offseason. So that's 6-7 with the only spots left to fill DH/3rd base/Catcher by my count. Now that is in a completely ideal world where everything goes there way in the next few years, which quite honestly isn't all that likely to happen. It certainly doesn't seem likely they will have 6 home grown regulars like they did from 2014-2018 but that was probably more of a lucky break than something that is likely to happen again. They can still build a competitive team without having 6 of the starting 9 being home grown. I agree. I was thinking four homegrown position players as a "core" seems like a sound number. Anything more is a bonus. But the above still means that we won't see all together on the regular until late 2024 or 2025 at the earliest. I get your point, but FWIW I have my eyes on two other guys as well. You're right, Yorke may or may not make it. I still believe in his hit tool. I think he had an injury riddled season but if healthy he'll hit. And behind him is Romero who has certainly gotten off to a solid start, but as you would say, he's way too far away to feel comfortable projecting, especially anytime soon. The two guys I'm tracking that could fit needs by 2025 would be Niko Kavadas and maybe Nathan Hickey. Kavadas might strike out too much to hit enough, but I'm extremely intrigued. I get that's he's a little older but he could be in the majors by some point in 2024. His plate discipline is unreal and that power is for real. He might be a very cheap and effective option at DH, at least against righties. Maybe he has the most power in the organization (other than Devers and maybe Casas?) I like Hickey's bat. Of course he needs to be able to be a viable defensive catcher or else that puts a ton of pressure on his hit tool, but I haven't had a reason to give up on him as of yet. So when we're discussing a future everyday lineup core, say around 2025-2026 (I know that feels so damn far away), I'm thinking of Mayer, Casas, Rafaela, and Bleis, and less certain, Romero, Kavadas, and Hickey. And I won't write off Valdez or Abreu yet either. I think Valdez can hit and might help them next year and perhaps Abreu can hit enough to be an outfield option. He has good power, speed, and an ability to draw walks, so he's interesting.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 15, 2022 18:58:27 GMT -5
From the MLB trade rumors chat this guy still sees a non tender of Bellinger as likely with maybe $10+ incentives. With his D I think we could do a lot worse filling RF. With Fenway being a hitters park and prior relationships with Verdugo and Hernandez hopefully this happens. www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-15-22-13945.htmlBellinger seems like the best non Aaron Judge option left for the Sox this off-season for the Outfield. I could see a trade before the non tender deadline. Good find. Singing Xander and trading for Bellinger would probably be best use of resources this off-season at the two biggest positions of need.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 15, 2022 19:31:23 GMT -5
From the MLB trade rumors chat this guy still sees a non tender of Bellinger as likely with maybe $10+ incentives. With his D I think we could do a lot worse filling RF. With Fenway being a hitters park and prior relationships with Verdugo and Hernandez hopefully this happens. www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-15-22-13945.htmlBellinger seems like the best non Aaron Judge option left for the Sox this off-season for the Outfield. I could see a trade before the non tender deadline. Good find. Singing Xander and trading for Bellinger would probably be best use of resources this off-season at the two biggest positions of need. Cody bellinger is batting .200 this year. I would say he's not the best option left for the outfield outside of judge. I want no part of him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 15, 2022 20:31:14 GMT -5
Even if you wanted Bellinger (which I don't really either), why would you trade for Bellinger to pay him $18m in arbitration when you can wait for him to become a free agent and try to sign him for half that?
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Post by jdb on Sept 15, 2022 21:50:31 GMT -5
I also think Bellinger is one that will benefit from the new shift rules. Looking over the mlb rosters I just don’t see a bunch of RF options that could be that 2nd CFer we hear about and need. In a perfect world Verdugo could play it but it seems like we like him more in LF. The hot stove can’t get here soon enough!
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 15, 2022 22:06:25 GMT -5
Dan S wrote a few weeks ago that ZiPS projected Bellinger at .221/.303/.406, 1.6 WAR. Bellinger has like a 450 OPS since then so the projection would be worse now
Signing him for like 7 million and having him platoon with Refsnyder is an option I guess
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 16, 2022 7:08:20 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well. If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit. Banning the shift puts much more of a premium on 2B defense than SS defense because shifts are most frequently employed against LHH. Bogaerts also had a solid defensive season this year, and in theory should have a bat good enough to carry a shift to LF or DH if needed later in his contract. It doesn't make sense to tailor signings at the ML level to a 19 y/o prospect that is 2-3 years away if all goes well. Worst case would be moving Xander off SS a bit early or trading Mayer for a king's ransom. They have the money to sign both Xander and Devers, even when keeping in mind other roster holes and the luxury tax. They just can't go as high end at other positions if they want to stay under. It all depends how the team values them. 8/220 is richer than I think Bogaerts will get, and if that's his actual market I don't want him. Absolute ceiling for me would be a richer version of the Story deal, like in the 6/170 ballpark. No team is going to trade a five-tool OF or top SP for one year of Devers unless those players don't have much control left, in which case there's no real point of trading Devers. The Mookie trade is a better template for what the return might be. Mookie was a better player than Devers at the time, but he was making more than Devers, it was still one year of control, and Mookie had Price's contract attached. I do think they'll consider trading him if they don't see a route to re-signing him, but I think it's more likely that they find a way to get a deal done.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 16, 2022 7:14:32 GMT -5
I also think Bellinger is one that will benefit from the new shift rules. Looking over the mlb rosters I just don’t see a bunch of RF options that could be that 2nd CFer we hear about and need. In a perfect world Verdugo could play it but it seems like we like him more in LF. The hot stove can’t get here soon enough! The shift may help him hit .210 instead of .200 so I don't see it likely to help him go from a bad hitter to an average hitter. I don't outright hate the idea of Bellinger provided its a cheap incentive laden deal and he's brought in as a piece of the puzzle for the OF and not THE piece of the puzzle in the OF. Which at that point it seems to me his best bet would be to sign elsewhere that will guarantee him more money and ABs.
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Post by seamus on Sept 16, 2022 9:23:59 GMT -5
I'd be fine with a cheap flyer on Bellinger to compete for the 4th outfielder spot and I'm sure Bloom would be, too, but I don't think Bellinger would be interested. Some team that's on the periphery (Rockies? Royals? Reds?) will likely offer him a guaranteed starting job for $10m+ in the hope that he puts it back together in a lower-pressure environment. I don't think Bloom is going to go bargain bin hunting for the outfield - if they don't come away with at least one of Judge, Nimmo, Haniger, or a Reynolds-caliber trade target, I'll be shocked.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 16, 2022 10:02:01 GMT -5
If Judge were playing for the Red Sox, it would be great to see the look on MFY faces every time Judge hits a HR against the Yankees!
Make no mistake, he will end up being a full time DH at least half way through his contract.
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Post by seamus on Sept 16, 2022 10:56:21 GMT -5
Judge is starting off as a good defensive outfielder, so he has quite a bit of room to decline before he's too much of a liability. If his health deteriorates such that he'd need to be a full-time DH, he's probably not playing much anyway, so I think it really just comes down to whether or not you think he can stay healthy enough to be in a lineup at 36+. This is looking like his second straight full season, so he doesn't seem to have persistent niggling health issues at this point. I'm leery of giving anyone a gigantic contract to anyone in their 30s, but I think any extra fear about Judge would be purely speculative and he's starting from such a high peak that anything other than a disastrous age curve seems pretty appealing. If it's a choice between Judge or Devers, I choose Devers, but it MIGHT actually be a choice between Bogey+2nd tier free agent or Judge, in which case I'd take Judge.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 16, 2022 11:01:38 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well. If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit. Banning the shift puts much more of a premium on 2B defense than SS defense because shifts are most frequently employed against LHH. Bogaerts also had a solid defensive season this year, and in theory should have a bat good enough to carry a shift to LF or DH if needed later in his contract. It doesn't make sense to tailor signings at the ML level to a 19 y/o prospect that is 2-3 years away if all goes well. Worst case would be moving Xander off SS a bit early or trading Mayer for a king's ransom. They have the money to sign both Xander and Devers, even when keeping in mind other roster holes and the luxury tax. They just can't go as high end at other positions if they want to stay under. It all depends how the team values them. 8/220 is richer than I think Bogaerts will get, and if that's his actual market I don't want him. Absolute ceiling for me would be a richer version of the Story deal, like in the 6/170 ballpark. No team is going to trade a five-tool OF or top SP for one year of Devers unless those players don't have much control left, in which case there's no real point of trading Devers. The Mookie trade is a better template for what the return might be. Mookie was a better player than Devers at the time, but he was making more than Devers, it was still one year of control, and Mookie had Price's contract attached. I do think they'll consider trading him if they don't see a route to re-signing him, but I think it's more likely that they find a way to get a deal done. It isn't just a matter of having the money, it's how the team likes to spend the money. We already know their aversion to giving out large contracts, especially to guys over the age of 30. For the last 20 years they have shopped in the second tier of free agents, the only exception really being Price, and that notably came under Dombrowski. They place an enormous amount of value on financial flexibility, and prefer to spread their money out across the field than tie it up in individual players. And when you look at the largest contracts the team has given out in the last 20 years, I just don't see how Devers is getting $300 million: 1. Price, 8/$217 2. Gonzalez, 7/$154 3. Story, 6/$140 3. Sale, 5/$145 4. Crawford 6/$142 Some other larger extensions were Pedroia's, which was 8/$110 and Bogaerts 6/$120. But there is no precedence for anything like a $300 million contract for Devers under Henry. The same can be said for Bogaerts' potential contract too honestly, but I also can't imagine both of them leaving. As for what a trade were to look like, I agree, these things are usually easier said than done. In my eyes it would probably have to be a 3-team deal so the Red Sox wouldn't be giving up any significant prospects in the trade. Per BaseballTradeValues, Devers has about $30 million in surplus value, so he should be able to fetch something solid in return. But I agree it's an unknown.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2022 11:16:20 GMT -5
Banning the shift puts much more of a premium on 2B defense than SS defense because shifts are most frequently employed against LHH. Bogaerts also had a solid defensive season this year, and in theory should have a bat good enough to carry a shift to LF or DH if needed later in his contract. It doesn't make sense to tailor signings at the ML level to a 19 y/o prospect that is 2-3 years away if all goes well. Worst case would be moving Xander off SS a bit early or trading Mayer for a king's ransom. They have the money to sign both Xander and Devers, even when keeping in mind other roster holes and the luxury tax. They just can't go as high end at other positions if they want to stay under. It all depends how the team values them. 8/220 is richer than I think Bogaerts will get, and if that's his actual market I don't want him. Absolute ceiling for me would be a richer version of the Story deal, like in the 6/170 ballpark. No team is going to trade a five-tool OF or top SP for one year of Devers unless those players don't have much control left, in which case there's no real point of trading Devers. The Mookie trade is a better template for what the return might be. Mookie was a better player than Devers at the time, but he was making more than Devers, it was still one year of control, and Mookie had Price's contract attached. I do think they'll consider trading him if they don't see a route to re-signing him, but I think it's more likely that they find a way to get a deal done. It isn't just a matter of having the money, it's how the team likes to spend the money. We already know their aversion to giving out large contracts, especially to guys over the age of 30. For the last 20 years they have shopped in the second tier of free agents, the only exception really being Price, and that notably came under Dombrowski. They place an enormous amount of value on financial flexibility, and prefer to spread their money out across the field than tie it up in individual players. And when you look at the largest contracts the team has given out in the last 20 years, I just don't see how Devers is getting $300 million: 1. Price, 8/$217 2. Gonzalez, 7/$154 3. Story, 6/$140 3. Sale, 5/$145 4. Crawford 6/$142 Some other larger extensions were Pedroia's, which was 8/$110 and Bogaerts 6/$120. But there is no precedence for anything like a $300 million contract for Devers under Henry. The same can be said for Bogaerts' potential contract too honestly, but I also can't imagine both of them leaving. As for what a trade were to look like, I agree, these things are usually easier said than done. In my eyes it would probably have to be a 3-team deal so the Red Sox wouldn't be giving up any significant prospects in the trade. Per BaseballTradeValues, Devers has about $30 million in surplus value, so he should be able to fetch something solid in return. But I agree it's an unknown. There have only been 9 $300 million contracts in MLB history. The Price contract is the 19th largest. The penny-pinching Dodgers only have one contract in the top 20 (Betts, of course). Teams that are in the top 20 include the Marlins, Rangers, and Reds.
All this to say that I don't think the Red Sox' particular history is all that instructive. Signing a guy to a mega-deal is a fairly rare event for any team - even the Yankees only have 3 of the top 25. It's more just a result of there being the right confluence of factors for the player and team. With the Red Sox having a ton of payroll flexibility going forward, and the need to keep an offensive star on the roster, and perhaps a PR interest in not letting yet another home grown star leave, those factors may well be present for a big Devers extension. (Who, in any event, might not require $300 million, as I don't think it's clear that he's the sort of top-10 player in the game who would be worth that amount, as good as he is.)
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 16, 2022 11:24:03 GMT -5
Banning the shift puts much more of a premium on 2B defense than SS defense because shifts are most frequently employed against LHH. Bogaerts also had a solid defensive season this year, and in theory should have a bat good enough to carry a shift to LF or DH if needed later in his contract. It doesn't make sense to tailor signings at the ML level to a 19 y/o prospect that is 2-3 years away if all goes well. Worst case would be moving Xander off SS a bit early or trading Mayer for a king's ransom. They have the money to sign both Xander and Devers, even when keeping in mind other roster holes and the luxury tax. They just can't go as high end at other positions if they want to stay under. It all depends how the team values them. 8/220 is richer than I think Bogaerts will get, and if that's his actual market I don't want him. Absolute ceiling for me would be a richer version of the Story deal, like in the 6/170 ballpark. No team is going to trade a five-tool OF or top SP for one year of Devers unless those players don't have much control left, in which case there's no real point of trading Devers. The Mookie trade is a better template for what the return might be. Mookie was a better player than Devers at the time, but he was making more than Devers, it was still one year of control, and Mookie had Price's contract attached. I do think they'll consider trading him if they don't see a route to re-signing him, but I think it's more likely that they find a way to get a deal done. It isn't just a matter of having the money, it's how the team likes to spend the money. We already know their aversion to giving out large contracts, especially to guys over the age of 30. For the last 20 years they have shopped in the second tier of free agents, the only exception really being Price, and that notably came under Dombrowski. They place an enormous amount of value on financial flexibility, and prefer to spread their money out across the field than tie it up in individual players. And when you look at the largest contracts the team has given out in the last 20 years, I just don't see how Devers is getting $300 million: 1. Price, 8/$217 2. Gonzalez, 7/$154 3. Story, 6/$140 3. Sale, 5/$145 4. Crawford 6/$142 Some other larger extensions were Pedroia's, which was 8/$110 and Bogaerts 6/$120. But there is no precedence for anything like a $300 million contract for Devers under Henry. The same can be said for Bogaerts' potential contract too honestly, but I also can't imagine both of them leaving. As for what a trade were to look like, I agree, these things are usually easier said than done. In my eyes it would probably have to be a 3-team deal so the Red Sox wouldn't be giving up any significant prospects in the trade. Per BaseballTradeValues, Devers has about $30 million in surplus value, so he should be able to fetch something solid in return. But I agree it's an unknown. We don't really know anything, tbh. Bloom hasn't had an offseason with money to spend since he's been in charge, and the bargain bin shopping of the last two years (Story aside) has been a necessity given the team's payroll situation. Going back to past GMs, I think you have to include a bunch of other guys in that total. Off the top of my head, JDM (coming off a 45 HR 167 wRC+ season), Adrian Gonzalez (10.2 fWAR the previous two years, which is damned hard to do at 1B), and Carl Crawford (coming off a 7.7 fWAR season) were all bonafide stars and the top guys available at their respective positions. Sale's extension, while not a FA deal, is another example of ownership shelling out big for a star.
There have also only been a [ handful] of $300 million free agent deals in MLB history and all of them are from the last three years. The Sox haven't really had the payroll flexibility for a deal like that since players have been getting them. Plus, they offered Mookie a 10/300 extension so they are clearly willing to spend that much on the right guy. If you include $300+ million extensions there still haven't been that many more (I think just Trout, Mookie, and Tatis).
I'm not sure Devers is worth $300+ million (I'd think 10/275 is more reasonable, not that you'd necessarily sink a deal over $2.5 million/year), but if the team thinks he's worth that much I see no reason to expect they'd be unwilling to pay him. I he gets traded, I'd expect it's because 1) he's holding out for that $300+ million dollar deal, 2) the Sox' valuation of him is not only well below that, but also well below what they expect other teams will offer, and 3) they can get a really good package back for him. I doubt those stars will align, though, so I think there's a good chance he does get signed long term. We'll see!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 16, 2022 11:33:15 GMT -5
Judge is starting off as a good defensive outfielder, so he has quite a bit of room to decline before he's too much of a liability. If his health deteriorates such that he'd need to be a full-time DH, he's probably not playing much anyway, so I think it really just comes down to whether or not you think he can stay healthy enough to be in a lineup at 36+. This is looking like his second straight full season, so he doesn't seem to have persistent niggling health issues at this point. I'm leery of giving anyone a gigantic contract to anyone in their 30s, but I think any extra fear about Judge would be purely speculative and he's starting from such a high peak that anything other than a disastrous age curve seems pretty appealing. If it's a choice between Judge or Devers, I choose Devers, but it MIGHT actually be a choice between Bogey+2nd tier free agent or Judge, in which case I'd take Judge. If it comes down more to losing a step opposed to staying on the field, he probably stays a plus defender in LF for a few years too. The problem with Judge, is the Sox just have so many holes to fill to spend all that money this year. This is Blooms first offseason with some money to spend, and while I don't buy the Sox would never go after a guy like Judge narrative in terms of adding that much payroll for one player...I do buy it this offseason. Bloom is going to spread that money around to fill out the roster. I won't hate it if the Sox sign Judge, but it's going to make me extremely curious as to how they fill out the rest of the roster.
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