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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 16, 2022 11:58:33 GMT -5
It isn't just a matter of having the money, it's how the team likes to spend the money. We already know their aversion to giving out large contracts, especially to guys over the age of 30. For the last 20 years they have shopped in the second tier of free agents, the only exception really being Price, and that notably came under Dombrowski. They place an enormous amount of value on financial flexibility, and prefer to spread their money out across the field than tie it up in individual players. And when you look at the largest contracts the team has given out in the last 20 years, I just don't see how Devers is getting $300 million: 1. Price, 8/$217 2. Gonzalez, 7/$154 3. Story, 6/$140 3. Sale, 5/$145 4. Crawford 6/$142 Some other larger extensions were Pedroia's, which was 8/$110 and Bogaerts 6/$120. But there is no precedence for anything like a $300 million contract for Devers under Henry. The same can be said for Bogaerts' potential contract too honestly, but I also can't imagine both of them leaving. As for what a trade were to look like, I agree, these things are usually easier said than done. In my eyes it would probably have to be a 3-team deal so the Red Sox wouldn't be giving up any significant prospects in the trade. Per BaseballTradeValues, Devers has about $30 million in surplus value, so he should be able to fetch something solid in return. But I agree it's an unknown. There have only been 9 $300 million contracts in MLB history. The Price contract is the 19th largest. The penny-pinching Dodgers only have one contract in the top 20 (Betts, of course). Teams that are in the top 20 include the Marlins, Rangers, and Reds.
All this to say that I don't think the Red Sox' particular history is all that instructive. Signing a guy to a mega-deal is a fairly rare event for any team - even the Yankees only have 3 of the top 25. It's more just a result of there being the right confluence of factors for the player and team. With the Red Sox having a ton of payroll flexibility going forward, and the need to keep an offensive star on the roster, and perhaps a PR interest in not letting yet another home grown star leave, those factors may well be present for a big Devers extension. (Who, in any event, might not require $300 million, as I don't think it's clear that he's the sort of top-10 player in the game who would be worth that amount, as good as he is.)
I guess there is a first time for everything, but at this point I would need to see it to believe it. If they weren't willing to give Mookie $300 million, I would be absolutely shocked if they would give Devers $250+. It would just be so out of character. The rumor last year that the extension they offered him was similar Matt Olson's 8/$170 with the Braves is so much more in line with how this organization operates, and would perfectly fit in with that list of contracts I listed above.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 16, 2022 12:01:59 GMT -5
Pitching would get worse if we sign Judge.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 16, 2022 12:05:34 GMT -5
I'll stop short of saying there's noway they sign judge but I'm kind of going to say there's noway they sign judge. Just doesn't seem very likely, he's going to get 7-8 at 40 AAV if I had to guess. Too many holes to fill to give one guy that much money even though he obviously fills a massive hole in OF.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2022 12:10:40 GMT -5
There have only been 9 $300 million contracts in MLB history. The Price contract is the 19th largest. The penny-pinching Dodgers only have one contract in the top 20 (Betts, of course). Teams that are in the top 20 include the Marlins, Rangers, and Reds.
All this to say that I don't think the Red Sox' particular history is all that instructive. Signing a guy to a mega-deal is a fairly rare event for any team - even the Yankees only have 3 of the top 25. It's more just a result of there being the right confluence of factors for the player and team. With the Red Sox having a ton of payroll flexibility going forward, and the need to keep an offensive star on the roster, and perhaps a PR interest in not letting yet another home grown star leave, those factors may well be present for a big Devers extension. (Who, in any event, might not require $300 million, as I don't think it's clear that he's the sort of top-10 player in the game who would be worth that amount, as good as he is.)
I guess there is a first time for everything, but at this point I would need to see it to believe it. If they weren't willing to give Mookie $300 million, I would be absolutely shocked if they would give Devers $250+. It would just be so out of character. The rumor last year that the extension they offered him was similar Matt Olson's 8/$170 with the Braves is so much more in line with how this organization operates, and would perfectly fit in with that list of contracts I listed above. As notstarboard pointed out, they were willing to give Mookie $300 million.
There was also reporting that they offered Devers $200 million last offseason, which doesn't strike me as ungenerous for a guy who had two remaining years of team control, questionable defense, and a career high wRC+ of 133.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2022 12:14:25 GMT -5
I'll stop short of saying there's noway they sign judge but I'm kind of going to say there's noway they sign judge. Just doesn't seem very likely, he's going to get 7-8 at 40 AAV if I had to guess. Too many holes to fill to give one guy that much money even though he obviously fills a massive hole in OF. Me if the Red Sox sign Judge: "Sweet, I'm so excited for the next three seasons!"
Me if the Yankees sign Judge: "Sweet, I'm so excited for 2026-2030!"
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Post by Guidas on Sept 17, 2022 15:24:35 GMT -5
How much does Bloom have to play with after Arb raises are added in? About $90M?
If they let Xander go and want to leave Story at Second because of (a supposed tear in) his arm, then they are likely going to be spending more than $20M a year on a legit replacement. Turner or Correa are the only guys with similar WAR, especially considering Swanson's basically been a 2 fWAR player outside of this career year. And for those enamored with quick fixes, Kiké is not a 5+ fWAR player and does not belong at SS on the regular. Ditto Arroyo, who can't even stay healthy for an entire year.
You'll also be losing JDM, and you'll need an outfielder. Obviously, Sox need more from DH than they got this year. So let's do some means and say if you want 35+ HRs and .360+ OBP, that will cost significant money. And all this assumes Casas at first going forward, but it's unclear if he's just a platoon guy (if he is, this may be a reason not to trade Dalbec).
Finally, there's the Devers Decision™, which looks to be significantly expensive if extended. If not, they will undoubtedly get some nice return, but those are likely prospects, and they'll still have to find another 5 fWAR to go with the 5 fWAR they're (potentially) losing in Xander.
Position players aside, the Sox will also need three starters minimum, replacing Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill, plus several pen arms, and have to be cognizant that Bello is currently at 137 innings and has never thrown more than 118 before that.
Altogether, if he wants to build a playoff team that is not banking on every player having a career-best year and the team enjoying absurdly good luck, I think the price will be more like $130M-150M. Unless he starts trading most or all of the top 5 prospects for MLB-ready above average talent.
Added: I wonder if Kelenic is a change of scenery guy (if you believe in that). He continues to crush in the minors but has struggled in two decent length stints in Seattle. I wonder if there's a deal there to be had. The key would be to put him in the OF, bat him 9th and help him figure it out.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 17, 2022 17:38:55 GMT -5
Added: I wonder if Kelenic is a change of scenery guy (if you believe in that). He continues to crush in the minors but has struggled in two decent length stints in Seattle. I wonder if there's a deal there to be had. The key would be to put him in the OF, bat him 9th and help him figure it out. Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 17, 2022 20:49:06 GMT -5
Added: I wonder if Kelenic is a change of scenery guy (if you believe in that). He continues to crush in the minors but has struggled in two decent length stints in Seattle. I wonder if there's a deal there to be had. The key would be to put him in the OF, bat him 9th and help him figure it out. Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. Houck has far more value than Kelenic, that would be a terrible return for him
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 17, 2022 21:12:11 GMT -5
Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. Houck has far more value than Kelenic, that would be a terrible return for him I should add, I am not opposed to moving Houck for a controllable piece, it just needs to be the right one
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Post by Guidas on Sept 17, 2022 21:15:58 GMT -5
Added: I wonder if Kelenic is a change of scenery guy (if you believe in that). He continues to crush in the minors but has struggled in two decent length stints in Seattle. I wonder if there's a deal there to be had. The key would be to put him in the OF, bat him 9th and help him figure it out. Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. MLB needs to recognize that natural immunity once people have contracted Covid is as effective, and usually more so, than a vaccine. A positive test, verified by the team's physician or the player's personal physician, followed by recovery should be enough at this point.
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Post by keninten on Sept 17, 2022 21:30:44 GMT -5
Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. MLB needs to recognize that natural immunity once people have contracted Covid is as effective, and usually more so, than a vaccine. A positive test, verified by the team's physician or the player's personal physician, followed by recovery should be enough at this point. it`s the Canadian government.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 17, 2022 21:52:16 GMT -5
Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. Houck has far more value than Kelenic, that would be a terrible return for him Not really, Kelenic is still seen as valuable and a potential piece to breakout. The Mariners have one of the most pitcher friendly environments in MLB. The cold weather and spacious outfield makes for a bad hitting environment for some MLB players. Houck has less control as a player now and is probably seen as a reliever at this point. Not sure dealing him for a potential starting outfield option is terrible.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 17, 2022 22:22:15 GMT -5
Houck has far more value than Kelenic, that would be a terrible return for him Not really, Kelenic is still seen as valuable and a potential piece to breakout. The Mariners have one of the most pitcher friendly environments in MLB. The cold weather and spacious outfield makes for a bad hitting environment for some MLB players. Houck has less control as a player now and is probably seen as a reliever at this point. Not sure dealing him for a potential starting outfield option is terrible. Well tell that to baseballtradevalues, Houck is valued at 5x of Kelenic after their most recent update. Houck's basement is a high leverage reliever, Kelenic's floor is a AAA regular. Also, the Mariners play under a retractable roof, so the elements are pretty ideal.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 18, 2022 7:05:44 GMT -5
Kelenic for Houck seems like a interesting trade. I'm not sure if the Sox want to keep dealing with unvaccinated players if need they need to. The Sox got to figure out some kind of solution to RF in 2023. Houck has far more value than Kelenic, that would be a terrible return for him Houck is intriguing, especially if one thinks he can improve his performance. However, right now he is extremely unsuccessful against lefties. In the 21 1/3 inngs against LHH, he had a .379 OPB that included 14 BB and 12 ERs. Some of that is inflated by a very bad May, but as it stands he’s a highwire act vs. LHH. Not someone you really want in the 8th or 9th if the other team is loaded with lefties, or has a good one ready to come off the bench in a tight game. With that kind of disadvantage it hamstrings him as a starter as well. We can all hope they teach him either better control vs LHH in the off season, or, that he can come up with some sort of out pitch for lefties, even one that simply induces weak ground balls. Otherwise, he becomes much less valuable.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 18, 2022 7:55:08 GMT -5
MLB needs to recognize that natural immunity once people have contracted Covid is as effective, and usually more so, than a vaccine. A positive test, verified by the team's physician or the player's personal physician, followed by recovery should be enough at this point. it`s the Canadian government. And the fact that the CDC still recommends vaccines and boosters for everyone old enough to get them, including people who have tested positive in the past (although I think you need to wait a few months from your last positive test). They wouldn't still recommend vaccines if natural immunity from a single infection was enough. I'm thinking about it like the flu; getting it once should give you some protection in the short term, but there's still value in getting a flu shot every year.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 18, 2022 8:09:13 GMT -5
Not really, Kelenic is still seen as valuable and a potential piece to breakout. The Mariners have one of the most pitcher friendly environments in MLB. The cold weather and spacious outfield makes for a bad hitting environment for some MLB players. Houck has less control as a player now and is probably seen as a reliever at this point. Not sure dealing him for a potential starting outfield option is terrible. Well tell that to baseballtradevalues, Houck is valued at 5x of Kelenic after their most recent update. Houck's basement is a high leverage reliever, Kelenic's floor is a AAA regular. Also, the Mariners play under a retractable roof, so the elements are pretty ideal. Houck's basement is a guy with chronic back issues who's never really the same as when he came up. He was up and down this year in a high leverage role too. I think he can do it, but his floor is definitely lower than high leverage guy. His ceiling is pretty low too imo; it's basically a decent closer. Kelenic's floor is just as low if you consider health (i.e. guy who doesn't contribute meaningfully going forward) and his ceiling is much higher as a middle of the order bat. He's struggled hugely in the majors, but he's also just 22 years old. He also might be able to play in Toronto... I haven't watched the guy play, but on paper I don't think it looks crazy. Edit: Also it looks like the Mariners were ridiculously, irresponsibly aggressive with him. In 2019 as a 19 y/o he got 50 G at A, 21 G at A+, and 30 G at AA. He then didn't play at all during the pandemic year in 2020. In 2021 the Mariners bumped him right up to AAA for 30 G, declared him ready, and brought him up to MLB. That's 131 total games between A and AAA over 2+ years with a massive amount of time off in between. No wonder the kid has struggled in MLB. I think he could really benefit from starting a year in AAA where the expectations are lower and getting time to really get into a groove before getting called up again.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2022 9:22:02 GMT -5
Well tell that to baseballtradevalues, Houck is valued at 5x of Kelenic after their most recent update. Houck's basement is a high leverage reliever, Kelenic's floor is a AAA regular. Also, the Mariners play under a retractable roof, so the elements are pretty ideal. Houck's basement is a guy with chronic back issues who's never really the same as when he came up. He was up and down this year in a high leverage role too. I think he can do it, but his floor is definitely lower than high leverage guy. His ceiling is pretty low too imo; it's basically a decent closer. Every player's (and especially every pitcher's) realistic floor is "ineffective due to chronic injuries."* And then I don't know how you can say he doesn't have the ceiling of at least a back-end starter considering that he has a career 3.22 ERA as a starter in 92 IP and similarly impressive peripherals. This just seems unreasonably pessimistic on both floor and ceiling.
*I admit I have never really understood what 'floor' and 'ceiling' mean, partly for this reason.
ADD: Now that I think about it, using Houck as a 3-4 inning "starter" following a lefty opener seems like it'd be a good idea. Let him go longer if he can improve against lefties. He might could contribute a solid 100 IP or so a year that way.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2022 9:35:06 GMT -5
Not really, Kelenic is still seen as valuable and a potential piece to breakout. The Mariners have one of the most pitcher friendly environments in MLB. The cold weather and spacious outfield makes for a bad hitting environment for some MLB players. Houck has less control as a player now and is probably seen as a reliever at this point. Not sure dealing him for a potential starting outfield option is terrible. Well tell that to baseballtradevalues, Houck is valued at 5x of Kelenic after their most recent update. Houck's basement is a high leverage reliever, Kelenic's floor is a AAA regular. Also, the Mariners play under a retractable roof, so the elements are pretty ideal. Just because baseballtradevalues says it's a bad trade doesn't mean that it would be a bad trade. Baseballtradevalues has no idea what becomes of Houck and his back issues nor does it know if Kelenic is suddenly ready to blossom and explode into stardom. Frankly, if the Sox came to the Mariners and offered Houck straight up for Kelenic I think the Mariners would tell the Sox "hell, no". If the Sox think that Kelenic is still that high ceiling prospect who still has a reasonably good shot at fulfilling that ceiling, then they'd be crazy not to make that kind of offer. Houck is a good and valuable pitcher but odds are he winds up a setup man who can pitch two innings per clip. I don't think he'll hold up as a starter or get lefties out enough. Sooner or later his slider will give him arm issues. If Houck for Kelenic were truly on the table, I'd see what my scouts had to say and if it's thumbs up, then you make the deal. I think all of this is theoretical talk anyways. I doubt the Mariners trade Kelenic and they figure he will eventually figure it and are probably salivating at the thought of a blossoming Kelenic in CF and Rodriguez in RF. (as an aside, think of how long it took for Byron Buxoton to figure it out, but he did and Kelenic is nowhere near the duration that it took for Butxon to figure it out). The Sox signed Kiké to bridge the CF gap to Rafaela, so they'll probably opt to go that route and hang onto a valuable arm like Houck.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 18, 2022 10:40:42 GMT -5
Houck's basement is a guy with chronic back issues who's never really the same as when he came up. He was up and down this year in a high leverage role too. I think he can do it, but his floor is definitely lower than high leverage guy. His ceiling is pretty low too imo; it's basically a decent closer. Every player's (and especially every pitcher's) realistic floor is "ineffective due to chronic injuries."* And then I don't know how you can say he doesn't have the ceiling of at least a back-end starter considering that he has a career 3.22 ERA as a starter in 92 IP and similarly impressive peripherals. This just seems unreasonably pessimistic on both floor and ceiling.
*I admit I have never really understood what 'floor' and 'ceiling' mean, partly for this reason.
ADD: Now that I think about it, using Houck as a 3-4 inning "starter" following a lefty opener seems like it'd be a good idea. Let him go longer if he can improve against lefties. He might could contribute a solid 100 IP or so a year that way.
Yes, but when one player is undergoing surgery for a major back injury it's no longer a hypothetical. He could certainly come back as strong as ever, but back injuries are nasty. If we treat a floor as a bottom 5% outcome and literally any player is getting back surgery, I'd say "never the same" is a reasonable floor. Plus, before the injury his performance had still been regressing. He was less effective this year as a reliever than he was last year as a starter. Walk rate a tick up, K rate way down. It's a bit of a worrying trend even if he recovers fully and stays healthy.
On the last podcast Ian & Chris were in agreement that the "Houck in the rotation" ship has sailed. I agree. He has performed fairly well as a starter on the whole, but he gives no length. He gets massacred the third time through the order and isn't even consistent enough getting two times through. If you want to use him with another starter as a piggybacker or as part of a opener/follower tandem that could be a decent role for him. Still, I'd say there's more value in having effective MIRPs in the bullpen than using those same MIRPs as SPs; they pitch a similar amount of innings, but the former saves the bullpen while the latter strains it. There's additional risk in counting on him to eat innings in the rotation because he periodically has blow-up outings where he can't find the plate. Those are much less costly in the pen, since he can just hit the showers early, save his arm, and try again in a day or two. He also struggles to get lefties out as Guidas pointed out, so unless if he can reinvent himself that also lends itself better to a bullpen role where you can pick and choose your spots with him. Then there's the "can't pitch in Toronto" issue...
With that said, if you want to be optimistic on his ceiling, I won't die on that hill. SP isn't unrealistic imo, just pretty unlikely. I'm sure I'm bearish on him as much because of his on-field performance as because I think he's a selfish moron.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 18, 2022 10:41:29 GMT -5
I don't recommend using Baseball Trade Value as any kind of authority. They had Juan Soto getting massive arb pay days for 2 1/3 years being worth $170 million. That is goofy as hell, nobody actually believes that if Juan Soto were a free agent demanding a short term contract he'd get paid $100+ million a year. BTV is a black box, you shouldn't give it any benefit of the doubt.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 19, 2022 8:35:28 GMT -5
I don't recommend using Baseball Trade Value as any kind of authority. They had Juan Soto getting massive arb pay days for 2 1/3 years being worth $170 million. That is goofy as hell, nobody actually believes that if Juan Soto were a free agent demanding a short term contract he'd get paid $100+ million a year. BTV is a black box, you shouldn't give it any benefit of the doubt. Agreed. I would trade Houck for Kelenic 10 times out of 10 and not think twice about it.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 19, 2022 10:21:53 GMT -5
Call me crazy, I just don't see a scenario where Kelenic requires much in terms of compensation going back to Seattle. Did they use up a 2nd option on him this year?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 19, 2022 11:41:21 GMT -5
Kelenic seems legitimately very difficult to value. There's a lot of Mariners nerds on the internet, I wonder if they're out on him.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 19, 2022 13:15:05 GMT -5
Kelenic seems legitimately very difficult to value. There's a lot of Mariners nerds on the internet, I wonder if they're out on him. My read, FWIW - he has the high OBP and decent BB/K rate in AAA because the AAA pitchers aren’t as effective as MLB pitchers at exposing a remaining hole in his swing. Also, he’s been a victim of some significant bad luck at the MLB level with a 2021 BABIP of .216 and 2022 of .159. His ISO in AAA was. absurd though (.261 in 2022, .304 in 2021). He’s only 23 and has had just over 500 MLB PAs. it used to be that they would evaluate to 1000 PAs at the MLB level before giving up on a guy. Perhaps with the trackman data, it is less. But he is only 23 years old, so I think he’s definitely fixable. Perhaps they have messed up his swing somehow? although, given the Red Sox offensive output this year, I can’t say that the Boston hitting coaches or the approaches they are teaching are any better. anyway, I wonder if they would go for Duran and Dalbec for him, thinking one of those two are useful or fixable. “Change of scenery” guys.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 21, 2022 11:00:03 GMT -5
I’d definitely be interested in Kelenic. He really needs a change of scenery. I don’t see it working out in Seattle for him. His price should be low. I wouldn’t pencil him into a spot on the MLB roster but there’s upside there.
And while on the topic of the Mariners, Haniger is driving his price down nicely and still makes sense for next year IMO.
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