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Post by benzinger on Sept 2, 2022 12:02:53 GMT -5
Bello looks to have good stuff, for sure, but he’s clearly not ready. It’s a shame they had to bring him up and start his service time clock prematurely. He’s allowed 56 baserunners in 26 innings and he simply doesn’t throw enough strikes. He might be good down the road, but I’m not sure he was really a “bright spot” this year. I mean the experience he gets, and, one hopes, the growth he exhibits. Yeah, he was rushed, but I hope it leads to adjustments that nake him even better down the road. Is all experience good experience, though? Is getting your ass kicked in the Majors better for his development than blowing away a bunch of guys in AA/AAA? I’m actually not sure how both scenarios impact the confidence of a young pitcher. It must be unsettling to a guy like Bello who has probably dominated everyone he’s faced since he was 8 years old.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 2, 2022 12:14:51 GMT -5
I think in the long run Crawford and Bello could be the bright side to a dumpy year. Bello especially. Bello looks to have good stuff, for sure, but he’s clearly not ready. It’s a shame they had to bring him up and start his service time clock prematurely. He’s allowed 56 baserunners in 26 innings and he simply doesn’t throw enough strikes. He might be good down the road, but I’m not sure he was really a “bright spot” this year. Too many walks, yes, but he's got a 3.93 xERA and 3.24 FIP. He's been BABIPed to death (.448). As with EduardoRod last year it's just obvious from watching the games that he's been ridiculously unlucky on balls in play (so the WHIP is mostly meaningless).
He also seems to be improving. In his last 4 appearances:
9.64 K/9 4.50 BB/9 4.50 ERA 2.70 FIP 3.54 xFIP
And in his last 3 appearances he's down to 3.7 BB/9, a 2.09 FIP, and a 3.15 xFIP.
I'm comfortable with him being in the roation on opening day, if it comes to that.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 2, 2022 12:52:47 GMT -5
The MFY have been bad since the all star break. I would not be surprised to see TB pass the MFY chokers. Arroyo should be at DH when he is not at 2B. 0 chance Cora benches JD unfortunately
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 2, 2022 13:04:44 GMT -5
Well, 538 has us up to 1%, rather than less than 1% - Fangraphs at 1.2%, ESPN 1%
Amazingly, record is the same home as road right now - 32-34.
Some key August stats
Verdugo .330 (remains hot) Xander .278 (heating up) Arroyo .326 (remains hot) McGuire .385 (was hot, brutal last night) Pham .292 (steady) Plawecki .288 (recently hot) Kiké .250 (improving) Dalbec .255 (ugh)
Then there are
Duran .180 (gone) JD .214 (rally killer, K machine) Raffi .163 (starting to come out of it?) Incomplete - Hosmer, Story - not enough games
The other problem in August - aside from some key cold hitters - some stinker pitching efforts - games where we gave up 13, 9, 8, 15, 9, 12 and 10 runs in losses, and 8 runs in a win.
12-16 record in August.
September just about has to be better after miserable July and August.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 2, 2022 14:01:53 GMT -5
Say what you want about how this season has gone for the major league squad which yes I'll agree is a disappointment. However it's extremely false in my mind to say that "none of the minor league talent has taken a significant step forward". I honestly couldn't disagree more with that statement. They've had a number of guys take very solid steps forward. I’m not talking about guys in A or AA ball. I’m talking about the Major League squad. I am sure there are plenty of success stories down on the farm, but I’m less engaged with that world. Oh well excuse me for saying that when you literally said "none of their minor league talent has taken a significant step forward." How am I supposed to interpret that to mean their major league squad? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense.
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Post by benzinger on Sept 2, 2022 14:19:22 GMT -5
I’m not talking about guys in A or AA ball. I’m talking about the Major League squad. I am sure there are plenty of success stories down on the farm, but I’m less engaged with that world. Oh well excuse me for saying that when you literally said "none of their minor league talent has taken a significant step forward." How am I supposed to interpret that to mean their major league squad? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense. No apology needed. I’m addressing guys from the minors who stepped up and contributed at the Major League level and probably could have clarified that better.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 2, 2022 14:22:10 GMT -5
Oh well excuse me for saying that when you literally said "none of their minor league talent has taken a significant step forward." How am I supposed to interpret that to mean their major league squad? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense. No apology needed. I’m addressing guys from the minors who stepped up and contributed at the Major League level and probably could have clarified that better. Fair enough I'll agree that I'm guessing you mean dalbec, Duran and maybe Bello? Haven't produced in their ML stints so far. Tho looking at Bellos underlying numbers there's hope for him. For dalbec and Duran yea im about ready to say they're maybe bench pieces at best.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 15:16:45 GMT -5
Bobby is riding the pine even with Dallas Keuchel on the mound
RIP Bobby Bombs, it was fun
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2022 18:34:43 GMT -5
if they have Story replace X next year, they will be getting 85% of X. Not saying that is bad, but there will be a drop off at the position.
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Post by station13 on Sept 2, 2022 18:34:56 GMT -5
Keuchel is so done.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 18:36:51 GMT -5
He's gotta be the worst pitcher we've seen all year
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 2, 2022 18:39:23 GMT -5
Will Bloom be able to resist plucking him off the scrap heap this winter? That is right up his alley.
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Post by station13 on Sept 2, 2022 18:40:13 GMT -5
speaking of done, JDM might be too.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2022 18:40:14 GMT -5
Bobby is riding the pine even with Dallas Keuchel on the mound RIP Bobby Bombs, it was fun I was checking your spreadsheet. Does that Mookie line say that the Sox have gained 6 WAR ? Not sure I understand. Cause we can't be talking about actual player production. Is this relative to the cost of the replacements v the cost of Mookie ?
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 2, 2022 18:40:20 GMT -5
JDM also kinda done
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Post by station13 on Sept 2, 2022 18:41:57 GMT -5
Brasier, JDM, just show them the doors already.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2022 18:43:02 GMT -5
There could be residual issues from the injury for JDAM, but if not, it is a precipitous and heartbreaking decline. He did a lot of this club the last 5 years.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 2, 2022 18:50:24 GMT -5
if they have Story replace X next year, they will be getting 85% of X. Not saying that is bad, but there will be a drop off at the position. I hope X and the Red Sox can work something out, so that he stays in Boston.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 18:53:21 GMT -5
Bobby is riding the pine even with Dallas Keuchel on the mound RIP Bobby Bombs, it was fun I was checking your spreadsheet. Does that Mookie line say that the Sox have gained 6 WAR ? Not sure I understand. Cause we can't be talking about actual player production. Is this relative to the cost of the replacements v the cost of Mookie ? 1 WAR costs 8.5 million in free agency. You can convert dollars into wins and wins into dollars at this rate.
Sox got 5.2 war for $4 million so far. 5.2 WAR usually costs $44 million, so their side is worth +$40 million.
Dodgers got 3.7 WAR for $42 million, which is $10 million worse than you'd do buying random free agents (cause David Price hasn't done anything)
40 million - (negative 10 million) = Sox are ahead by 50 million. 50 million = 5.8 wins.
Hope that makes sense
(not trying to turn this into a Mookie debate!)
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2022 18:55:11 GMT -5
1 WAR costs 8.5 million in free agency. You can convert dollars into wins and wins into dollars at this rate.
Sox got 5.2 war for $4 million so far. 5.2 WAR usually costs $44 million, so their side is worth +$40 million.
Dodgers got 3.7 WAR for $42 million, which is $10 million worse than you'd do buying random free agents (cause David Price hasn't done anything)
40 million - (negative 10 million) = Sox are ahead by 50 million. 50 million = 5.8 wins.
Hope that makes sense
(not trying to turn this into a Mookie debate!)
thanks.. i understand.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2022 19:11:08 GMT -5
Whew.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2022 19:15:27 GMT -5
This umpire is atrocious
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 19:23:55 GMT -5
What happened to Pivetta?
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Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2022 19:26:42 GMT -5
The Sox are getting sniped to death on the mound. Insanely bad luck.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2022 19:27:10 GMT -5
What happened to Pivetta? Umpire squeezed him, he had to face another guy, got hit by a comebacker, got the out, hobbled off yelling at the umpire
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