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Qualifying Offers for 2023
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2022 8:25:47 GMT -5
For context, some contracts from this offseason Matz 4/44 Gray 4/56 Desclafani 3/36 Wood 2/25 Kikuchi 3/36 If Wacha thinks 3/36 or so is possible, is he accepting the QO? If I was Wacha, I`d take the 1/19 over 3/36. You'd turn down almost twice the guaranteed money as a 30-year-old MLB pitcher having what looks like an outlier year? Why?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 8, 2022 8:37:17 GMT -5
If Wacha does turn down a QO....it's not that's bad for Boston.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 8, 2022 8:59:26 GMT -5
If Wacha does turn down a QO....it's not that's bad for Boston. If you walk out with 2 additional picks, it makes potentially replacing Xander and a SP a lot easier.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 11:07:54 GMT -5
If I was Wacha, I`d take the 1/19 over 3/36. You'd turn down almost twice the guaranteed money as a 30-year-old MLB pitcher having what looks like an outlier year? Why? Kikuchi just got 3/36. Look at his numbers and then tell me how bad Wacha would have to be next year to not be able to get 2/17.
(On the other hand, Kikuchi's deal might also suggest Wacha could do better than 3/36.)
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 8, 2022 11:17:51 GMT -5
You'd turn down almost twice the guaranteed money as a 30-year-old MLB pitcher having what looks like an outlier year? Why? Kikuchi just got 3/36. Look at his numbers and then tell me how bad Wacha would have to be next year to not be able to get 2/17.
(On the other hand, Kikuchi's deal might also suggest Wacha could do better than 3.36.)
Lmao, this makes my morning. For some reason I was thinking he only signed for 1 year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2022 11:30:55 GMT -5
You'd turn down almost twice the guaranteed money as a 30-year-old MLB pitcher having what looks like an outlier year? Why? Kikuchi just got 3/36. Look at his numbers and then tell me how bad Wacha would have to be next year to not be able to get 2/17.
(On the other hand, Kikuchi's deal might also suggest Wacha could do better than 3/36.)
I would also add Steven Matz and his 4/44 contract as a comparable to what Wacha may be able to get this offseason. Then again Kikuchi and Matz weren't QO'd so if Wacha is QO'd it would certainly hurt his potential value to another team. If I had to make a guess on if Wacha would accept the QO or not I would think he would, but you never know.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 8, 2022 11:38:23 GMT -5
It’s so crazy how the year played out. I thought for sure Xman but I hope some compromise gets done. Evoladi and JDM. Now I changed I don’t mind Wacha getting one. He isn’t going to accept because he has a chance to get a good deal this off-season. I don’t want to offer JDM. I think he will take it. Unless the FO knows something like he was battling injuries all year. I am 50/50 on Evoladi. Either way I can live with it. I love Evoladi’s heart and it ties him only one year if he accepts.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2022 11:39:33 GMT -5
Wacha's QO decision if the Sox offer seems like a genuinely difficult thing to predict.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 8, 2022 12:14:14 GMT -5
Great thread so far, well done!
QO Wacha, Eovaldi and Xander. 1 year (potential) deals with Wacha and Eovaldi are fine. They'll likely go over the tax next year, my guess at least.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 13:08:34 GMT -5
Great thread so far, well done! QO Wacha, Eovaldi and Xander. 1 year (potential) deals with Wacha and Eovaldi are fine. They'll likely go over the tax next year, my guess at least. This would definitely change the calculus for me. If they're going over next year, then go to town with the QOs for Wacha and Eovaldi, and the one-year deals would make it easy to get under the following year.
But if they mean to stay under the luxury tax limit (or close to it like this year), Kiké + Wacha + Eovaldi would leave only ~$45 million to address SS, RF, and the rest of the pitching, with most of that going to either Xander or his replacement. And there'd still be no real front of the rotation starter you could count on.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 8, 2022 21:18:57 GMT -5
I love how we’re debating whether $19M is worth it and the Yankees still have Stanton on the books for the next six years for like 10x that amount.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 8, 2022 22:26:47 GMT -5
Wacha's QO decision if the Sox offer seems like a genuinely difficult thing to predict. I wouldn't offer the QO to Wacha. Bloom's best move in 2022 was Wacha. Got way more than he paid for him, but the rubber meets the end of the road for Wacha (at least I hope so). I don't want to see him posting a 5 ERA on a 3 year deal next year or for a one year 19 million dollar deal.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 8, 2022 23:34:26 GMT -5
FWIW, those tweets were more of just a 'hah, this is weird' than anything.
I've heard a couple of people mention Rick Porcello (ver. 2018) and Merrill Kelly (ver. 2021) as kind of what they feel like Wacha may be going forward. So I think people are pretty realistic about him (and those types of seasons are plenty valuable).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 8, 2022 23:39:41 GMT -5
I'd offer the QO to Eovaldi, Wacha, and Xander.
My guess is that even though Eovaldi might be able to beat that on the open market, he'd probably accept it with the Sox. I'd be fine if he returned for that.
I think if the QO was offered to Wacha he would turn it down, but will get a better offer on the market and take it, which is fine with me if that's what happens.
Of course you offer it to X. I hope they extend him, but a higher draft pick is about as much as they'd get back for him at this point if they don't retain him. Hope it's all a moot point and he's back.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 8, 2022 23:56:21 GMT -5
Great thread so far, well done! QO Wacha, Eovaldi and Xander. 1 year (potential) deals with Wacha and Eovaldi are fine. They'll likely go over the tax next year, my guess at least. This would definitely change the calculus for me. If they're going over next year, then go to town with the QOs for Wacha and Eovaldi, and the one-year deals would make it easy to get under the following year.
But if they mean to stay under the luxury tax limit (or close to it like this year), Kiké + Wacha + Eovaldi would leave only ~$45 million to address SS, RF, and the rest of the pitching, with most of that going to either Xander or his replacement. And there'd still be no real front of the rotation starter you could count on.
100% agree. If we're intending to go over the tax, QO Bogaerts, Eovaldi, and Wacha. If not, QO Bogaerts only. Attempt to retain Wacha on a sensible contract. Let JDM and Eovaldi walk.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 9, 2022 12:15:18 GMT -5
Its really unfortunate we did not get under the tax at the deadline this year which would’ve really made planning these next few years easier. They stayed above it for the very small shot at a terrible wild card seed.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 9, 2022 12:22:50 GMT -5
I think we should let everyone go (QO Bogaerts obviously) and extend Devers while he is still young. Reset the luxury money.
We should position ourselves around the next batch of stars (which includes Devers due to his still young age) rather than try to piece humpty dumpty back together.
This would also position the team to go for it after the yankees, rays and jays have had a few years of gunning for it and trading from their farm to sustain that competitiveness.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 12:32:47 GMT -5
I think we should let everyone go (QO Bogaerts obviously) and extend Devers while he is still young. Reset the luxury money. We should position ourselves around the next batch of stars (which includes Devers due to his still young age) rather than try to piece humpty dumpty back together. This would also position the team to go for it after the yankees, rays and jays have had a few years of gunning for it and trading from their farm to sustain that competitiveness. On paper, there's a strong argument to reset next year and go for it in 2024, but, can Boston fans would go crazy with another last-place finish in 2023 Given what they have to spend, and assuming a reasonable cleaner bill of health the Sox should be able to both stay under the luxury tax AND compete next year.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 9, 2022 12:34:29 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Bloom has a thought in his head about extending a QO to JDM. I look for him to use his payroll space to build a deeper, more flexible roster that maximizes the value of every spot. Paying $20M to a DH who'd be on the short side of any platoon and doesn't play the field is exactly what he doesn't want to do, I think.
Not to mention the fact that JDM isn't very good. Bloom has to think he can get a .770 OPS out of the DH spot by rotating less-expensive guys in and out and getting a LH-RH platoon advantage in most games.
Offer QO's to X and Eovaldi but try to work out reasonable deals with both of them before FA.
No QO for Wacha. The Red Sox Stats post is convincing that he's been extremely lucky.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 9, 2022 12:35:33 GMT -5
I think we should let everyone go (QO Bogaerts obviously) and extend Devers while he is still young. Reset the luxury money. We should position ourselves around the next batch of stars (which includes Devers due to his still young age) rather than try to piece humpty dumpty back together. This would also position the team to go for it after the yankees, rays and jays have had a few years of gunning for it and trading from their farm to sustain that competitiveness. On paper, there's a strong argument to reset next year and go for it in 2024, but, can Boston fans would go crazy with another last-place finish in 2023 Given what they have to spend, and assuming a reasonable cleaner bill of health the Sox should be able to both stay under the luxury tax AND compete next year. How? They would have to overpay like 3-4 guys just to go for it with this same group of people, and that would also entail having to reset to go into 2024.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 12:39:43 GMT -5
On paper, there's a strong argument to reset next year and go for it in 2024, but, can Boston fans would go crazy with another last-place finish in 2023 Given what they have to spend, and assuming a reasonable cleaner bill of health the Sox should be able to both stay under the luxury tax AND compete next year. How? They would have to overpay like 3-4 guys just to go for it with this same group of people, and that would also entail having to reset to go into 2024. You don't think it's reasonable to assume the team could be in a position compete during the year 2024? I have more faith in Bloom than the typical Boston fan, but if it's taking you 5 years to turn around a franchise unafraid of spending 200 million + I feel you're doing something wrong.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 12:57:49 GMT -5
This all also assumes they need to reset.
If you're only like $10m over, who cares about the tax being $5m? It's an issue if they go 2018 again but I don't think that's what we're looking at anytime soon.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2022 13:02:41 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Bloom has a thought in his head about extending a QO to JDM. I look for him to use his payroll space to build a deeper, more flexible roster that maximizes the value of every spot. Paying $20M to a DH who'd be on the short side of any platoon and doesn't play the field is exactly what he doesn't want to do, I think. Not to mention the fact that JDM isn't very good. Bloom has to think he can get a .770 OPS out of the DH spot by rotating less-expensive guys in and out and getting a LH-RH platoon advantage in most games. Offer QO's to X and Eovaldi but try to work out reasonable deals with both of them before FA. No QO for Wacha. The Red Sox Stats post is convincing that he's been extremely lucky.I don't think Red Sox Stats was saying he's merely been lucky. In any case, you could regress Wacha all the way back to his 3.62 FIP or even his 3.91 xFIP, and if you thought he could repeat that next season (and stay healthy) he'd be worth the QO.
That's a big 'if' for sure. But just saying he's been lucky is not evidence enough that he wouldn't be worth the QO.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 13:08:19 GMT -5
So the Sox can spend up to 253 million next year and it's going to cost them an extra $5.7 million. I doubt that deters them from going past it if they believe they can compete. Obviously, this is a very convoluted conversation with many moving parts with considerations into future years but after Xander opts out I believe that leaves them with over a $100 million spend (if they wanted to). You'd have to try to not get a lot better while spending that money.
To steer this back towards the topic, it makes very apparent that the Sox are not going to be afraid to offer a QO to guys that wouldn't mind accepting for one year. And if they decline, even better, you either net a pick or you're in a better position to negotiate with them if you want them to stick around. I think Wacha gets one, and if they are comfortable with the medicals then Nate too.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 9, 2022 15:51:08 GMT -5
How? They would have to overpay like 3-4 guys just to go for it with this same group of people, and that would also entail having to reset to go into 2024. You don't think it's reasonable to assume the team could be in a position compete during the year 2024? I have more faith in Bloom than the typical Boston fan, but if it's taking you 5 years to turn around a franchise unafraid of spending 200 million + I feel you're doing something wrong. Huh? No I am saying the opposite. Get costs down in 2023 and reset so you can go into 2024 on the last year of Sale’s deal and be ready to roll and spend for a few years. Otherwise you go into 2023 needing to reset in 2024 after going over the cap for two mediocre teams in 2022 and 2023. It makes way more sense to go for it once the jays, rays and yanks start to lose some wind out of their sails.
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