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Qualifying Offers for 2023
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 12, 2022 14:59:24 GMT -5
Rotation Sale Wacha 3/40 Eovaldi 3/40 (or trade for young 2/3) Manea 5/120 Bello Bullpen Closer 3/30 Late inning 2/14 Houck Whitlock Barnes Crawford Schneider German Who do you think Sean Manaea is exactly? I’d give him 2/20. I don’t think he’s getting half of 5/120. That’s a bigger deal than Robbie Ray got coming off of a Cy Young Sean Manaea has literally turned into the Padres late inning mop up guy. If he gets 5/120, I am worried for the welfare of Blooms family, as they are clearly being held at gunpoint by Manaea.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2022 15:45:58 GMT -5
Y'all, let's keep this thread to discussion of or tangential to the qualifying offers. There are threads for the pitching in 2023, etc.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 12, 2022 19:13:31 GMT -5
I don't know about QO on Eovaldi and Wacha, yet there really aren't any bad one year deals. As long as Bloom is willing to spend big because you really need another inning eater. A QO kills the market for both and if it doesn't then it's going to be a crazy free agent market. Gotta say feels more like a DD type thing than Bloom
Now enter Manaea who isn't getting 150, yet he fits with Eovaldi and Wacha because besides one year, he makes his starts and gives you innings. Three big one year deals isn't horrible. Something like 50-55 million. With Sale and Paxton, Bello/Winckowsi/Crawford, guys in minors. You've created depth, you just need a Manaea inning eater type. Yet there's still a lot of risk and variance with Eovaldi, Wacha, Sale and Paxton.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 12, 2022 20:00:19 GMT -5
Bloom seems to like short 2 year deals where there is some sort of mutual option or team option to give the team a little leverage, and also a possible trade piece later on. Maybe after offering Eovaldi and Wacha a QO, he could then negotiate a 2 year deal like that with perhaps a slightly less amount than the QO, to give us a little more wiggle room for other moves. I can also see Paxton remaining in the mix.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2022 20:09:06 GMT -5
The easiest way to dodge the QO dilemma is to re-sign them before the deadline for doing so.
I'm hoping to see that for Wacha.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 12, 2022 22:23:26 GMT -5
The easiest way to dodge the QO dilemma is to re-sign them before the deadline for doing so.
I'm hoping to see that for Wacha.
That would be buying high.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 13, 2022 7:10:45 GMT -5
That's the thing signing those guys before QO likely means bigger long-term deals. That's just very risky, one year QO carry no long-term risk. It's just a question of maybe wasting money and overpaying guys, opportunity cost if Bloom isn't willing to spend big.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 13, 2022 7:23:19 GMT -5
Is it really concrete that both Eovaldi and Wacha would accept a QO? I don't know, I'm just not that baseball-savy to feel comfortable saying they would or would not. I wouldn't be surprised either way. If the answer is yes, then I think whether the Sox plan on resetting the salary cap in either 2023 or 2024 is relevant. If they are ok with staying over for one more year There's no risk in offering both one. The worst-case scenario they both accept and then they have two more starters for next year, which they desperately need even if they sign or trade for a guy. Then all that money comes off the books for 2024.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 13, 2022 7:42:14 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to move on from Eovaldi. I have great memories from 2018 and 2021, but I'm ready to close the book on him. I think that given his injury history, inconsistency, and HR numbers ballooning this year, I'm more inclined to invest that money (either $19 million in QO money or $15-20 million/year over a 2-4 year deal) towards a more consistent option. I think the Sox badly need someone who can pitch 150+ innings, ideally 175+ innings, with the state of the starting rotation next year, yet pitchers like that are rather rare nowadays. Chris Bassitt would be my target.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 13, 2022 7:51:38 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to move on from Eovaldi. I have great memories from 2018 and 2021, but I'm ready to close the book on him. I think that given his injury history, inconsistency, and HR numbers ballooning this year, I'm more inclined to invest that money (either $19 million in QO money or $15-20 million/year over a 2-4 year deal) towards a more consistent option. I think the Sox badly need someone who can pitch 150+ innings, ideally 175+ innings, with the state of the starting rotation next year, yet pitchers like that are rather rare nowadays. Chris Bassitt would be my target. I'm with you on Eovaldi. I'm feeling Belichickian and want to move one one year too early rather than two years too late if we're not careful.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2022 11:57:00 GMT -5
Well, if they don't reset this year, they will likely be out on the Ohtani sweepstakes after 2023 because his floor will likely be around $50M-55M a year. That may be, but seeing as Ohtani truly isn't driven by money, having a poor season due to an unwillingness to spend likely takes you out of it as well. Even the east-coast location may take us out of it. I wouldn't hold your breath on a 2023 Ohtani holiday surprise. I'm not sure he isn't driven by $$$ this time through. I think he wants top dollar or near top dollar, but he wants to play for a winning team. But I agree. He is not a Bloom-style move. Sadly.
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Post by seamus on Sept 13, 2022 13:12:19 GMT -5
That may be, but seeing as Ohtani truly isn't driven by money, having a poor season due to an unwillingness to spend likely takes you out of it as well. Even the east-coast location may take us out of it. I wouldn't hold your breath on a 2023 Ohtani holiday surprise. I'm not sure he isn't driven by $$$ this time through. I think he wants top dollar or near top dollar, but he wants to play for a winning team. But I agree. He is not a Bloom-style move. Sadly. Not to go off-topic, but I disagree with this statement. The Rays had supported a two-way player during Bloom's tenure and were initially thought to be a potential landing spot for Ohtani when he was posted back in 2017 before he narrowed his interest to the West Coast. Now, I don't think Ohtani is going to ever play in Boston (if only due to geography), but I think if Bloom has shown any particular style or preference, it has been for versatility. I also don't think we really know enough yet about what Bloom will be like in free agency with total control over the payroll situation. Extensions are fundamentally different from the free agent market, and one could actually argue that the reason to be cautious about signing extensions unless you're sure they're team-friendly is to keep free agency options available. I think the Story deal suggests that Bloom WILL be aggressive when the opportunity arises - that's one of the richest deals ever given to a 2nd baseman and he did it in lieu of just "running it back" with Arroyo at the keystone, which would have been defensible.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2022 15:10:00 GMT -5
In all seriousness, how do we know what is not a "Bloom-style move"? He literally hasn't had a normal offseason yet.
I don't say that to defend anything he has or hasn't done, but we know "a Bloom-style move during an offseason with a long lockout in the middle of it" and "a Bloom-style move during a worldwide pandemic." I think that's a relevant thing to consider before we act like we know what a typical Bloom move is not.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 13, 2022 15:21:18 GMT -5
In all seriousness, how do we know what is not a "Bloom-style move"? He literally hasn't had a normal offseason yet. I don't say that to defend anything he has or hasn't done, but we know "a Bloom-style move during an offseason with a long lockout in the middle of it" and "a Bloom-style move during a worldwide pandemic." I think that's a relevant thing to consider before we act like we know what a typical Bloom move is not. This is a great point, he has some holes to fill but he probably has more money to work with in an offseason than he ever has before. I’m not expecting what has become “status quo” for Bloom and I won’t pretend like I know what that is either. I suspect at the very least it’s going to be an interesting offseason and if I had to guess the team is going to be better next year.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 13, 2022 15:22:10 GMT -5
In all seriousness, how do we know what is not a "Bloom-style move"? He literally hasn't had a normal offseason yet. I don't say that to defend anything he has or hasn't done, but we know "a Bloom-style move during an offseason with a long lockout in the middle of it" and "a Bloom-style move during a worldwide pandemic." I think that's a relevant thing to consider before we act like we know what a typical Bloom move is not. And of course we also have yet to see "a Bloom-style move when he has like $90 million to spend," which seems relevant to the particular issue in question.
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Post by juanpena on Sept 13, 2022 20:29:48 GMT -5
In all seriousness, how do we know what is not a "Bloom-style move"? He literally hasn't had a normal offseason yet. I don't say that to defend anything he has or hasn't done, but we know "a Bloom-style move during an offseason with a long lockout in the middle of it" and "a Bloom-style move during a worldwide pandemic." I think that's a relevant thing to consider before we act like we know what a typical Bloom move is not. Serious, non-snarky question: Wasn't the 2020-21 offseason pretty normal? In 2020, the offseason was mostly done when the pandemic hit, but still sometimes guys become available at the end of spring training, so I'll grant you that one. And in 2021-22, the lockout -- even though everyone knew it was coming -- affected all teams, so that was . But MLB wound up having a 2020 season, and it seemed obvious there would be a 2021 season that would start on or close to schedule, with vaccines on the way that would likely allow full attendance fairly early in the season. While the rest of us were watching everything there was to watch on Netflix, people in baseball front offices could monitor data as always and meet among themselves on Zoom or Google meetings. So much business in done virtually anyway, so there didn't need to be in-person winter meetings to get trade talks started. Free agents were signing as normal -- and Bloom got a great deal for Kiké Hernandez. There was even a Rule 5 draft, and Bloom got a steal in Garrett Whitlock. Seemed like a pretty normal offseason.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2022 6:37:38 GMT -5
In all seriousness, how do we know what is not a "Bloom-style move"? He literally hasn't had a normal offseason yet. I don't say that to defend anything he has or hasn't done, but we know "a Bloom-style move during an offseason with a long lockout in the middle of it" and "a Bloom-style move during a worldwide pandemic." I think that's a relevant thing to consider before we act like we know what a typical Bloom move is not. Serious, non-snarky question: Wasn't the 2020-21 offseason pretty normal? In 2020, the offseason was mostly done when the pandemic hit, but still sometimes guys become available at the end of spring training, so I'll grant you that one. And in 2021-22, the lockout -- even though everyone knew it was coming -- affected all teams, so that was . But MLB wound up having a 2020 season, and it seemed obvious there would be a 2021 season that would start on or close to schedule, with vaccines on the way that would likely allow full attendance fairly early in the season. While the rest of us were watching everything there was to watch on Netflix, people in baseball front offices could monitor data as always and meet among themselves on Zoom or Google meetings. So much business in done virtually anyway, so there didn't need to be in-person winter meetings to get trade talks started. Free agents were signing as normal -- and Bloom got a great deal for Kiké Hernandez. There was even a Rule 5 draft, and Bloom got a steal in Garrett Whitlock. Seemed like a pretty normal offseason. Manager search took up part of the efforts - I'd call it normal adjacent maybe? Not as bad as losing the manager on the eve of the season like 2020 but still a huge, abnormal lift taking his attention early on. And again, not to make excuses - that's part of the gig. Also, covid wasn't a sure thing that offseason, which was the peak of delta - remember that minor league camp was delayed by a month, they still had different roster rules (started with 28 again I think?), etc. There was a fair amount of figuring it out as they went along that was still happening. And as others have said, he's never had this kind of money coming off the books. If they come into next season tens of millions under the CBT or only sign 1-3 year deals, then yeah, we'll definitely know what he doesn't do!
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 14, 2022 7:02:49 GMT -5
Offer to JD Wacha Eovaldi and Xander. Worst case is that all 4 leave and you get a ton of draft capital. Best case is that you're paying about 80 million for 4 players in 2023. The best case scenario for you involves spending $40 million on bringing back two guys who have each provided less than 1 WAR this season, and who will be 35 and 33 years old respectively? Eovaldi has a track record. He's going to get money this year regardless. Wacha has less of a track record and he'll still get paid. The organization itself also seems to want people on short term deals even if its an overpay so yeah best case scenario a potential overpay on a 1 year deal as opposed to sitting on an unproductive player for 3 years at a slightly lower annual value. Would you rather have Eovaldi at 1/19 or bring back Martin Perez on 3/45? Pretty sure thats a contract he'll probably get after this year. With JD you're obviously giving him 1/19 instead of paying someone 2/28 in the hopes of him having a 2021 season. Preferably the 1st half of 2021. He had a worse season in 2020 and looked done. Granted we know it was 2020 and literally almost nothing that year mattered but he still rebounded. I can't really see him repeating this performance next year. Even if he does, you're only dealing with it for 1 year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 14, 2022 7:19:52 GMT -5
The best case scenario for you involves spending $40 million on bringing back two guys who have each provided less than 1 WAR this season, and who will be 35 and 33 years old respectively? Eovaldi has a track record. He's going to get money this year regardless. Wacha has less of a track record and he'll still get paid. The organization itself also seems to want people on short term deals even if its an overpay so yeah best case scenario a potential overpay on a 1 year deal as opposed to sitting on an unproductive player for 3 years at a slightly lower annual value. Would you rather have Eovaldi at 1/19 or bring back Martin Perez on 3/45? Pretty sure thats a contract he'll probably get after this year. With JD you're obviously giving him 1/19 instead of paying someone 2/28 in the hopes of him having a 2021 season. Preferably the 1st half of 2021. He had a worse season in 2020 and looked done. Granted we know it was 2020 and literally almost nothing that year mattered but he still rebounded. I can't really see him repeating this performance next year. Even if he does, you're only dealing with it for 1 year. Giving JD a QO would be absolutely crazy if you ask me, he's put up like 2 good months of baseball in the last two seasons. If they want JD back sign him for one year and 10 mil max since that's probably what he's looking at maybe even less. I don't want him back at all as I think he's cooked. And yea sure if you QO him it's just one year but that's still 20 million that they could use elsewhere on the team for a better player(s) especially with how many holes they have.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 14, 2022 11:23:33 GMT -5
The best case scenario for you involves spending $40 million on bringing back two guys who have each provided less than 1 WAR this season, and who will be 35 and 33 years old respectively? Eovaldi has a track record. He's going to get money this year regardless. Wacha has less of a track record and he'll still get paid. The organization itself also seems to want people on short term deals even if its an overpay so yeah best case scenario a potential overpay on a 1 year deal as opposed to sitting on an unproductive player for 3 years at a slightly lower annual value. Would you rather have Eovaldi at 1/19 or bring back Martin Perez on 3/45? Pretty sure thats a contract he'll probably get after this year. With JD you're obviously giving him 1/19 instead of paying someone 2/28 in the hopes of him having a 2021 season. Preferably the 1st half of 2021. He had a worse season in 2020 and looked done. Granted we know it was 2020 and literally almost nothing that year mattered but he still rebounded. I can't really see him repeating this performance next year. Even if he does, you're only dealing with it for 1 year. I'll co-sign what ematz says on JDM.
As for Eovaldi, it's certainly not crazy to want to give him a QO but the "track record" you mention includes:
- one season since 2016 that he's been worth what a QO would cost - an ERA of 3.72 or higher every season since 2014 - an ERA of 4.23 overall on his current contract - one fully healthy season on his current contract
I have a pretty strong hunch that Bloom figures he can find better ways to spend $20 million.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 14, 2022 11:57:04 GMT -5
Eovaldi has a track record. He's going to get money this year regardless. Wacha has less of a track record and he'll still get paid. The organization itself also seems to want people on short term deals even if its an overpay so yeah best case scenario a potential overpay on a 1 year deal as opposed to sitting on an unproductive player for 3 years at a slightly lower annual value. Would you rather have Eovaldi at 1/19 or bring back Martin Perez on 3/45? Pretty sure thats a contract he'll probably get after this year. With JD you're obviously giving him 1/19 instead of paying someone 2/28 in the hopes of him having a 2021 season. Preferably the 1st half of 2021. He had a worse season in 2020 and looked done. Granted we know it was 2020 and literally almost nothing that year mattered but he still rebounded. I can't really see him repeating this performance next year. Even if he does, you're only dealing with it for 1 year. I'll co-sign what ematz says on JDM.
As for Eovaldi, it's certainly not crazy to want to give him a QO but the "track record" you mention includes:
- one season since 2016 that he's been worth what a QO would cost - an ERA of 3.72 or higher every season since 2014 - an ERA of 4.23 overall on his current contract - one fully healthy season on his current contract
I have a pretty strong hunch that Bloom figures he can find better ways to spend $20 million.
Track record also includes a strong post season run and a pretty good track record vs New York. So if we're pointing out the negatives you have to include the positives as well. I don't have confidence Bloom can find a better way to spend 20 million. I dont. The likelihood of him finding another Wacha is pretty low. You could sign DeGrom for 30 million and hope he stays healthy, you could sign Thor for 15 million and hope he's healthy or you could go back to the Martin Perez well and see if this year was a fluke or not. I just don't see how you can safely say Bloom has better ways to spend 20 million when he wasted money in the past on Hill Richards and Paxton. That being said you already paid Paxton 6 million or so this year so it probably makes sense to bring him back. We'll see. It just seems ridiculous that Bloom didn't trade any of these guys and would just not offer a QO for the asset when they could have yielded some kind of return.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 14, 2022 13:05:54 GMT -5
I'll co-sign what ematz says on JDM.
As for Eovaldi, it's certainly not crazy to want to give him a QO but the "track record" you mention includes:
- one season since 2016 that he's been worth what a QO would cost - an ERA of 3.72 or higher every season since 2014 - an ERA of 4.23 overall on his current contract - one fully healthy season on his current contract
I have a pretty strong hunch that Bloom figures he can find better ways to spend $20 million.
Track record also includes a strong post season run and a pretty good track record vs New York. So if we're pointing out the negatives you have to include the positives as well. I don't have confidence Bloom can find a better way to spend 20 million. I dont. The likelihood of him finding another Wacha is pretty low. You could sign DeGrom for 30 million and hope he stays healthy, you could sign Thor for 15 million and hope he's healthy or you could go back to the Martin Perez well and see if this year was a fluke or not. I just don't see how you can safely say Bloom has better ways to spend 20 million when he wasted money in the past on Hill Richards and Paxton. That being said you already paid Paxton 6 million or so this year so it probably makes sense to bring him back. We'll see. It just seems ridiculous that Bloom didn't trade any of these guys and would just not offer a QO for the asset when they could have yielded some kind of return. Hill cost $5 million and by bWAR has been roughly worth his salary, and by fWAR has been a major bargain ($10.5 million in value). Richards cost $10 million and returned about $8 million in value. Perez was roughly worth his salary while in Boston. And then there's Wacha, who cost $7 million and has returned $15 million in value per fangraphs (which is stingy with the WAR for him; he's been worth almost twice as much by bWAR). Even if you assume Paxton never pitches an inning for the Red Sox, Bloom has collectively come out ahead on his free agent starting pitcher signings.
So I guess I don't see why you think Bloom can't find better ways to spend $20 million.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2022 13:30:00 GMT -5
The easiest way to dodge the QO dilemma is to re-sign them before the deadline for doing so.
I'm hoping to see that for Wacha.
That would be buying high. The idea, of course, is that you wouldn't.
A surprisingly accurate predictor for perceived worth (and hence FA contracts) is just a pitcher's last 3 seasons weighted 3-2-1. That's essentially the Marcel the Monkey predictor without an age adjustment.
Wacha is worth $14M this way.
Now, the first catch is that he was worth minus $4M in each of his previous two seasons and projects be worth something like $32M this year.
The second catch is that he appears to have a real wOBA - xwOBA skill, going back to 2018.
It may well be true that the Red Sox completely understand why both of these things have happened. At the very least, they almost certainly have a very good idea. It looks as if they signed him because of his apparent balls-in-play skill, and it appears as if they did something that contributed a lot to turning his below replacement level results into that of a borderline ace.
IOW, the Sox are in a position to make the most accurate possible projection of his future value. Every one else has to try and figure it out.
From Wacha's POV ... given who Bloom is, you'd have to guess that analytics contributed to Wacha's success. Pitch selection, pitch sequencing and tunneling, and so on. If so, that's a very strong incentive to re-sign with the Sox.
And players who re-sign with teams do so a bit below FA market value.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 14, 2022 17:04:56 GMT -5
Track record also includes a strong post season run and a pretty good track record vs New York. So if we're pointing out the negatives you have to include the positives as well. I don't have confidence Bloom can find a better way to spend 20 million. I dont. The likelihood of him finding another Wacha is pretty low. You could sign DeGrom for 30 million and hope he stays healthy, you could sign Thor for 15 million and hope he's healthy or you could go back to the Martin Perez well and see if this year was a fluke or not. I just don't see how you can safely say Bloom has better ways to spend 20 million when he wasted money in the past on Hill Richards and Paxton. That being said you already paid Paxton 6 million or so this year so it probably makes sense to bring him back. We'll see. It just seems ridiculous that Bloom didn't trade any of these guys and would just not offer a QO for the asset when they could have yielded some kind of return. Hill cost $5 million and by bWAR has been roughly worth his salary, and by fWAR has been a major bargain ($10.5 million in value). Richards cost $10 million and returned about $8 million in value. Perez was roughly worth his salary while in Boston. And then there's Wacha, who cost $7 million and has returned $15 million in value per fangraphs (which is stingy with the WAR for him; he's been worth almost twice as much by bWAR). Even if you assume Paxton never pitches an inning for the Red Sox, Bloom has collectively come out ahead on his free agent starting pitcher signings.
So I guess I don't see why you think Bloom can't find better ways to spend $20 million.
There is literally no sane person on the planet that would want Rich Hill and Richards in a starting rotation over Eovaldi. Hill has been fine overall but can't go deep into games. I think hes gone 6+ twice. His value is as a swingman. Richards was hit like a pinata in the rotation until he kind of did okay in the bullpen but still finished with an ERA of almost 5. Wacha was spot on and he made a great signing with him. Perez was another guy who was in theory okay, had stretches but eventually he got sent to the pen as well. I don't know I guess I like having starters that can go 6+ innings. When I look at Hill and Richards I look at 2 arms that could easily be replaced and for the price you'd be better off using your depth with gus like German, Bello, Winckowski, Seabold etc...and using your money in other areas. Eovaldi is a guy that if he accepts a QO you aren't really getting angry about it. If he's healthy you know what he can do. Signing him long term though would be a bad move.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 14, 2022 17:15:30 GMT -5
Hill cost $5 million and by bWAR has been roughly worth his salary, and by fWAR has been a major bargain ($10.5 million in value). Richards cost $10 million and returned about $8 million in value. Perez was roughly worth his salary while in Boston. And then there's Wacha, who cost $7 million and has returned $15 million in value per fangraphs (which is stingy with the WAR for him; he's been worth almost twice as much by bWAR). Even if you assume Paxton never pitches an inning for the Red Sox, Bloom has collectively come out ahead on his free agent starting pitcher signings.
So I guess I don't see why you think Bloom can't find better ways to spend $20 million.
There is literally no sane person on the planet that would want Rich Hill and Richards in a starting rotation over Eovaldi. Hill has been fine overall but can't go deep into games. I think hes gone 6+ twice. His value is as a swingman. Richards was hit like a pinata in the rotation until he kind of did okay in the bullpen but still finished with an ERA of almost 5. Wacha was spot on and he made a great signing with him. Perez was another guy who was in theory okay, had stretches but eventually he got sent to the pen as well. I don't know I guess I like having starters that can go 6+ innings. When I look at Hill and Richards I look at 2 arms that could easily be replaced and for the price you'd be better off using your depth with gus like German, Bello, Winckowski, Seabold etc...and using your money in other areas. Eovaldi is a guy that if he accepts a QO you aren't really getting angry about it. If he's healthy you know what he can do. Signing him long term though would be a bad move. IMO, I want someone who makes more than 18 starts the entire year for my money. Lol, $19,000,000 for 18 starts would not be my choice (5-3 with 4.15 ERA and 21 HRs, no). I would take Wacha on a QO even if he missed starts as his results were better, and I feel he will be better than Eovaldi in 2023 along with being younger.
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