SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by jimed14 on May 20, 2014 12:16:05 GMT -5
I'd really like to see Shaw bumped up, but will Ben make room for him? Pretty much, Snyder or Lavarnway have to go. Not sure if Ben is willing to give up the 4th/5th catcher/1B depth option. This looks like it's going to become a problem all over the place in the next year, especially the pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 13:37:48 GMT -5
Or there could be trades, clearing out some of the overlap.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 20, 2014 13:44:18 GMT -5
Or there could be trades, clearing out some of the overlap. That's the same thing as making room and giving up depth.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 20, 2014 14:07:59 GMT -5
I really don't think Snyder or Lavarnway are blocking Shaw in any meaningful way. For non-top-prospects, the organization just prefers to wait until the league All-Star Break before promoting guys. For instance, Chih-Hsien Chiang spent all of 2011 in Portland (358 PAs before getting traded) despite utterly destroying the Eastern League that year and having had 478 PAs at the same level the year before. When Lavarnway repeated Portland in 2011, he didn't get promoted to Pawtucket until mid-June despite hitting really well. Josh Reddick got 287 PAs in Portland in 2009 (having ended his previous season in Portland) before getting promoted, and that was only because they needed an outfielder on the major league team.
The only example I can think of where a prospect repeating a level got promoted before 200+ PAs is Lars Anderson in 2010, and that didn't end particularly well.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2014 18:00:38 GMT -5
If he keeps this up could he be our 1B when Napoli goes?
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on May 21, 2014 22:46:15 GMT -5
If he keeps this up could he be our 1B when Napoli goes? They are in serious trouble if that happens.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on May 22, 2014 8:16:58 GMT -5
If he keeps this up could he be our 1B when Napoli goes? They are in serious trouble if that happens. I don't see the problem having a .300/.400/.500 first baseman to succeed Napoli. Wish we had that now. The objectionable part is, "if he keeps this up" - seems very unlikely to me.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 22, 2014 8:24:45 GMT -5
Yeah, I just said this in the Gameday Thread, but it's still worth tempering expectations. He's a first baseman repeating a level and isn't age advanced anymore. Now, doesn't diminish what he's doing, and there's certainly a chance that he keeps this up and then mashes in AAA (remember, he changed his mechanics last fall) ... but it's still too early to start considering his Boston future too carefully.
But, I like to see guys who struggled turn it around and do well. Unless you're Xander Bogaerts, being in the minor leagues must be a tough ride.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2014 9:32:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I just said this in the Gameday Thread, but it's still worth tempering expectations. He's a first baseman repeating a level and isn't age advanced anymore. Now, doesn't diminish what he's doing, and there's certainly a chance that he keeps this up and then mashes in AAA (remember, he changed his mechanics last fall) ... but it's still too early to start considering his Boston future too carefully. But, I like to see guys who struggled turn it around and do well. Unless you're Xander Bogaerts, being in the minor leagues must be a tough ride. And apparently the swing change has led to a drastic increase in ground balls, which is likely going to wind up sapping him of a lot of power when his HR/FB% comes back to earth. GB% went from 35.6% to 54.7% this year.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 22, 2014 10:50:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I just said this in the Gameday Thread, but it's still worth tempering expectations. He's a first baseman repeating a level and isn't age advanced anymore. Now, doesn't diminish what he's doing, and there's certainly a chance that he keeps this up and then mashes in AAA (remember, he changed his mechanics last fall) ... but it's still too early to start considering his Boston future too carefully. But, I like to see guys who struggled turn it around and do well. Unless you're Xander Bogaerts, being in the minor leagues must be a tough ride. And apparently the swing change has led to a drastic increase in ground balls, which is likely going to wind up sapping him of a lot of power when his HR/FB% comes back to earth. GB% went from 35.6% to 54.7% this year. Yeah, but his K% went from 22% to 11%, so a chunk of those groundballs used to be Ks ... the power being inflated by a high HR/FB is definitely something to keep in mind.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 22, 2014 11:49:14 GMT -5
After thinking it over some, I've concluded that trading Ks for ground balls was a good change for Shaw. He doesn't have the raw power where it makes sense for him to be hitting a ton of fly balls and striking out a lot. Even if the power doesn't last with his new swing, being a contact/on-base guy with occasional power suits his profile better than trying to be a second-rate three-true-outcomes type.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2014 12:25:08 GMT -5
And apparently the swing change has led to a drastic increase in ground balls, which is likely going to wind up sapping him of a lot of power when his HR/FB% comes back to earth. GB% went from 35.6% to 54.7% this year. Yeah, but his K% went from 22% to 11%, so a chunk of those groundballs used to be Ks ... the power being inflated by a high HR/FB is definitely something to keep in mind. It's a tradeoff, for sure. That's a really good k-rate so hopefully that sticks.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on May 22, 2014 20:28:37 GMT -5
They are in serious trouble if that happens. I don't see the problem having a .300/.400/.500 first baseman to succeed Napoli. Wish we had that now. The objectionable part is, "if he keeps this up" - seems very unlikely to me. Keep in mind he's a 24 year old repeating AA. How many 24 year old AA repeaters go on to become first division players? Not many.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on May 22, 2014 21:23:00 GMT -5
I don't see the problem having a .300/.400/.500 first baseman to succeed Napoli. Wish we had that now. The objectionable part is, "if he keeps this up" - seems very unlikely to me. Keep in mind he's a 24 year old repeating AA. How many 24 year old AA repeaters go on to become first division players? Not many. The objectionable part is, "if he keeps this up" - seems very unlikely to me.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2014 22:20:42 GMT -5
Keep in mind he's a 24 year old repeating AA. How many 24 year old AA repeaters go on to become first division players? Not many. The objectionable part is, "if he keeps this up" - seems very unlikely to me. It's clearly a 'jury is still out' situation with a wide range of potential outcomes. May splits (including today): .357/.438/.679/1.116 (.342 ISO) 84 AB 6HR 12BB 12K 3SB
|
|
|
Post by jchang on May 23, 2014 5:57:56 GMT -5
Lets say that Shaw looks like he could be a grade 5, i.e., second division starter good for WAR 2 or even 1. Should we a get a free agent good for WAR 3 or above at $5M/WAR or go with the home grown playing for MLB minimum? Obviously, the answer is it depends on who's is available in the free agent/trade market, and where the other needs are. Some people seem to only get excited if a player looks to be above average or even all-star. But get average MLB players out of the farm has value too, even if they are traded. Shaw is currently our best 1B prospect, and actually looks like he might have upside to be a MLB player.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on May 23, 2014 7:54:01 GMT -5
Lets say that Shaw looks like he could be a grade 5, i.e., second division starter good for WAR 2 or even 1. Should we a get a free agent good for WAR 3 or above at $5M/WAR or go with the home grown playing for MLB minimum? Obviously, the answer is it depends on who's is available in the free agent/trade market, and where the other needs are. Some people seem to only get excited if a player looks to be above average or even all-star. But get average MLB players out of the farm has value too, even if they are traded. Shaw is currently our best 1B prospect, and actually looks like he might have upside to be a MLB player. At the end of the day, the bat speed is going to hurt him down the road, regardless. Seems like a majority of the time he steps to the plate, Mookie or Marrero is on base and he is taking full advantage of that situation. (Unlike the bats on the major league team, Shaw knows how to ramp up the intensity with RISP and then how to deliver results. Maybe next day off, Cherringotn should bring the major league team to Portland so the major league picnickers can see first hand a team that plays with intensity and focus knows how to bring home RISP) Shaw's value has probably peaked and he would make a nice throw in piece on a major trade.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2014 13:18:27 GMT -5
It's clearly a 'jury is still out' situation with a wide range of potential outcomes. May splits (including today): .357/.438/.679/1.116 (.342 ISO) 84 AB 6HR 12BB 12K 3SB 1) It's actually been a significantly more impressive stretch than that, because he was just as good the second half of April. He is .359 / .432 / .664 over 149 PA (131 AB), with 10 HR, 16 UBB, 14 SO, 5/7 stealing. 2) I also question the assumption that he doesn't have the bat speed or power to justify these results. In the small sample of available Hit/fx data, he had the most impressive speed-of-batted-ball results in the AFL, edging Kris Bryant. 3) He is .348 / .459 / .663 on the season versus RHP, and .257 / .321 / .405 vs. LHP. With his old approach, he had a very neutral split. The new split may be a SSS fluke, but it may also be the case that the new approach has made him less successful versus LHP but made him hugely more successful versus RHP. If so, that increases the odds of his having a future as a good platoon starter. 4) When guys make a dramatic change in approach, the usual caveats about what they've accomplished by a given age can sometimes be tossed out. Jose Bautista, coming into his age 29 season, was a career .238 / .329 / .400 hitter (2038 PA). Since then, .270 / .394 / .568 (2481 PA).
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 23, 2014 14:03:37 GMT -5
Eric, do you think Shaw's power is sustainable with the pretty drastic GB% rise?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2014 14:10:47 GMT -5
Eric, do you think Shaw's power is sustainable with the pretty drastic GB% rise? One or the other is likely to be a fluke, but we don't know which, yet. It's possible that the weird results have something to do with there being less of a book on him due to the changed approach. Also, he started the season 4/35, no XBH in his first 10 games. I wish we could exclude that data ... (Where are you getting the GB% data?)
|
|
|
Post by godot on May 23, 2014 14:13:07 GMT -5
Interesting study this young man Shaw. Yup, repeating a league and perhaps a tad old, and then changes his approach, followed by some very good numbers. Eric hit the key ( not computer) suggesting his bat speed is good; likewise, noting that there is precedent for late improvements. No question there is some power there, and if he can handle third adequately, at least nice nice trade bait. Not going to even venture a guess, just watch and see what he does.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 23, 2014 14:30:48 GMT -5
The Soxprospects stats page and Minor League Central have GB/FB/LD/IFFB data.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 23, 2014 14:52:51 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 23, 2014 16:50:58 GMT -5
I can tell you from visuals that the power is legit. The last HR went over the bullpen and several rows up. The HR the other day to RCF was a rocket. I have yet to see a cheap HR from him, they were all pretty much no doubters. Here's his spray chart and a whole lot of other data: mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=543768&position=1BPretty cool site
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on May 23, 2014 17:43:43 GMT -5
Speed of batted ball stats aren't necessarily indicative of bat speed. It just means that you are barreling up a lot of balls. Some guys are able to do that without great bat speed in the minors but not in the majors.
Jose Batista is a very rare example. In fact I can't think of any other hitter who advanced so much later in his career other than steroid guys. He was also a former top prospect whereas Shaw is not. You can't look at huge outliers and apply them to every other situation. Most likely the outlier doesn't apply.
Besides why apply Bautista and not Chiang who barrelled up everything in 2011 in his AA repeat season. All the scouting reports said he was a fourth of at best and the stat guys screamed.
Statistical analysis of minor league players was never meant to be applied to older minor league players.
|
|
|