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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2014 18:25:30 GMT -5
Speed of batted ball stats aren't necessarily indicative of bat speed. It just means that you are barreling up a lot of balls. Some guys are able to do that without great bat speed in the minors but not in the majors. The speed of a batted ball, assuming you hit it on the nose, is a direct function of the speed and the weight of the bat. Barreling up a lot of balls might raise your average speed of batted ball over a wide sample, but the category that Shaw led in was balls among the top 10 hardest recorded -- IIRC, he and Kris Bryant were the only guys with 2. It's a bit like Xander having hit just four MLB homers, but with standard distances of 441, 437, 398, and 435 feet. By comparison, Papi has just 4 HR of 435 feet or longer -- among his last 46. All of Xander's HR's have had a speed off bat of 108 mph or higher, which is true of only about 14% of homers -- the odds against 4 random homers being hit that hard are 2260 to 1.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 23, 2014 19:51:53 GMT -5
The speed of a batted ball, assuming you hit it on the nose, is a direct function of the speed and the weight of the bat. Barreling up a lot of balls might raise your average speed of batted ball over a wide sample, but the category that Shaw led in was balls among the top 10 hardest recorded -- IIRC, he and Kris Bryant were the only guys with 2. It's a bit like Xander having hit just four MLB homers, but with standard distances of 441, 437, 398, and 435 feet. By comparison, Papi has just 4 HR of 435 feet or longer -- among his last 46. All of Xander's HR's have had a speed off bat of 108 mph or higher, which is true of only about 14% of homers -- the odds against 4 random homers being hit that hard are 2260 to 1. But seriously - doesn't the type of pitch and the speed of the pitch matter in this case? Just wondering if a hitter was particularly good at hitting fastballs, which would presumably have greater kinetic energy, wouldn't the ball come off the bat faster? (of course a good fastball likely has good bat speed - or he cheats)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 23, 2014 21:34:33 GMT -5
Shaw has moved up 7 places this week and is now ranked #22. Also for point of reference, he is .015 ahead of the age advancement scale, he's not old. He's 24 yrs and 1 month. . . . . Speed of batted ball stats aren't necessarily indicative of bat speed. It just means that you are barreling up a lot of balls. Some guys are able to do that without great bat speed in the minors but not in the majors. The speed of a batted ball, assuming you hit it on the nose, is a direct function of the speed and the weight of the bat. Barreling up a lot of balls might raise your average speed of batted ball over a wide sample, but the category that Shaw led in was balls among the top 10 hardest recorded -- IIRC, he and Kris Bryant were the only guys with 2. It's a bit like Xander having hit just four MLB homers, but with standard distances of 441, 437, 398, and 435 feet. By comparison, Papi has just 4 HR of 435 feet or longer -- among his last 46. All of Xander's HR's have had a speed off bat of 108 mph or higher, which is true of only about 14% of homers -- the odds against 4 random homers being hit that hard are 2260 to 1. Every action has an equal but opposite reaction. You are ignoring bat recoil which logically would be less for a batter with a better fulcrum and stronger base. If you just threw a bat at a ball and squared it up, it wouldn't travel very far. There's more than one way to skin a cat. To me, I worry more about guys with long strokes. Shaw does not have a long stroke. I think his current K rate pretty much says he's not likely to inordinately get blown away by fastballs as he rises through the ranks. From a stats point of view, his pitch recognition ratio (BB/K) is inordinately high, and extremely rare for a batter with a high Iso, SSS notwithstanding. Even at AA, if he was chasing high fastballs, it wouldn't be anywhere near that good.
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 23, 2014 23:28:09 GMT -5
Time to promote him into Pawtucket. I will evaluate him after seeing him adjusting to AAA pitching.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 24, 2014 1:13:32 GMT -5
Eric please link to one scouting report indicating that Shaw has elite bat speed. Not that he hits AA pitching hard because there have been plenty if guys that do that with poor bat speed by taking advantage of pitchers with poor or less refined command.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2014 1:32:12 GMT -5
Eric please link to one scouting report indicating that Shaw has elite bat speed. Not that he hits AA pitching hard because there have been plenty if guys that do that with poor bat speed by taking advantage of pitchers with poor or less refined command. There aren't going to be any reports saying that he now has somewhat better than average (obviously not elite) bat speed, because he completely changed his approach in last year's AFL, and I'm not sure anyone was paying attention to him after the year he had. But he's pretty obviously been hitting the ball harder than he ever did in the past, and we have both Hit/fx data and game results to indicate that. These things are not linear. A small improvement in bat speed, if it allows you to no longer be overpowered by good fastballs, can change the entire way that pitchers need to attack you, and result in a relatively big gain at the plate. In fact, just looking at the results, I think it's more likely that there are some guys still looking to beat him with heat, and that he is now killing the very pitches he used to be unable to handle, as any good AA hitter without his former weakness would. He can be expected to come back to earth somewhat as they adapt to his new strengths and weaknesses. Comparison: if you remember when Kevin Millar opened his stance dramatically, he went apeshit for a month because he had turned his old cold zones into hot zones. It took almost exactly a month before the league located his new cold zones and turned him into a pumpkin. What's probably happening with Shaw is more subtle and less dramatic, but I still think he's probably benefiting a bit from a mismatch between old scouting reports and new reality.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 24, 2014 2:14:28 GMT -5
A search for your claims yielded a Kevin Thomas article which DOES not indicate an altered approach or swing. Just more consistency which can help a third time repeater in AA, but doesn't turn you into a first division regular. It certainly won't improve a players bat speed.
Your argument is "nobody is paying attention", which is yet another variation on everyone else is stupid. Could it be that the reason he's not mentioned with the top prospects in the game is simply because he's not that good?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 24, 2014 3:45:21 GMT -5
"Top prospects in the game" ? Who's saying he's a top prospect in the game ? And where did eric say he has elite bat speed ?
Just because Kevin Thomas didn't mention an altered approach doesn't mean he doesn't have one. I'm pretty much guessing it isn't mentioned in every article written about him. I've seen it, it's different from last year when he had a big load and long stride. If you can't accept that then it's your issue.
I think you are more interested in arguing with eric than writing anything meaningful.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2014 8:35:13 GMT -5
"Top prospects in the game" ? Who's saying he's a top prospect in the game ? And where did eric say he has elite bat speed ? Just because Kevin Thomas didn't mention an altered approach doesn't mean he doesn't have one. I'm pretty much guessing it isn't mentioned in every article written about him. I've seen it, it's different from last year when he had a big load and long stride. If you can't accept that then it's your issue. I think you are more interested in arguing with eric than writing anything meaningful. I'd put him on ignore, but he seems to be serving a weird function, in that his "counter-arguments" somehow raise points worth expanding on. He's like a character in a Socratic dialogue whose job it is to be clueless.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 24, 2014 14:46:41 GMT -5
"Top prospects in the game" ? Who's saying he's a top prospect in the game ? And where did eric say he has elite bat speed ? Just because Kevin Thomas didn't mention an altered approach doesn't mean he doesn't have one. I'm pretty much guessing it isn't mentioned in every article written about him. I've seen it, it's different from last year when he had a big load and long stride. If you can't accept that then it's your issue. I think you are more interested in arguing with eric than writing anything meaningful. I'd put him on ignore, but he seems to be serving a weird function, in that his "counter-arguments" somehow raise points worth expanding on. He's like a character in a Socratic dialogue whose job it is to be clueless. Panu men oun.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 24, 2014 16:37:29 GMT -5
I'd put him on ignore, but he seems to be serving a weird function, in that his "counter-arguments" somehow raise points worth expanding on. He's like a character in a Socratic dialogue whose job it is to be clueless. Panu men oun. LOL, that one was tough to research.
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Post by grandsalami on May 26, 2014 17:08:20 GMT -5
Good for Shaw being called up to AAA
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by joshv02 on May 26, 2014 19:10:37 GMT -5
Shaw changed his kick/timing mechanism. He talks about it in various interviews, including one that focused on Betts. Do you need me to do the googles?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 26, 2014 21:16:12 GMT -5
From seeing Shaw in person recently, I saw him hit a HR and his approach was fine but I'm not seeing the bat speed or the athleticism in general. I'm not projecting him as being more than a 3-4 year mlb career when he's still cheap. After he hits 2nd year arb, I don't think he has a job in mlb.
Someone needs to buy him a subscription to the API ( Arizona Performance Institute ). If he does that he has a chance. Something that game changing. He's a sloth.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2014 15:34:50 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on May 31, 2014 9:44:24 GMT -5
Lavarnway's surgery should pave the way for Shaw to solidify the 1B job in Pawtucket with a possible late season call up. If he maintains his "up the middle" approach to hitting the stats will come. Nice development for a guy not considered much of a prospect.
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Post by larrycook on May 31, 2014 10:15:44 GMT -5
Lavarnway's surgery should pave the way for Shaw to solidify the 1B job in Pawtucket with a possible late season call up. If he maintains his "up the middle" approach to hitting the stats will come. Nice development for a guy not considered much of a prospect. I think that is where Shaw improved the most. Last year he was pull happy and it became a nightmare for him as every pitcher pitched him away. Now he is using more of the field, but still struggling with pitches away. Unfortunately his bat is so slow that good hard stuff away, he can't catch up to, so he lays off and then people say he is passive.
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Post by jchang on Aug 17, 2015 15:45:03 GMT -5
Its been one year + 2.5 months since there has been activity on Shaw's thread. Yes I know there was separate thread for his first call up back in May. Sure its only been 54 AB, but those are monster numbers for Jul + Aug. Middlebrooks and many others did well for a season more or less, then faded, I am inclined to think that Shaw can stick with some team as a regular, tough for a 1B/3B to be a backup unless there is someone like Holt on the team.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2015 15:50:44 GMT -5
I get this unexplained feeling that Shaw might be one of those guys who thrive in the spotlight of the majors or perhaps just a late bloomer like Brendon Moss. He looks like he might counter the disappointment of Cecchini. They'll probably trade him for a relief pitcher this winter and he'll wind up an All-Star.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 17, 2015 16:27:26 GMT -5
I get this unexplained feeling that Shaw might be one of those guys who thrive in the spotlight of the majors or perhaps just a late bloomer like Brendon Moss. He looks like he might counter the disappointment of Cecchini. They'll probably trade him for a relief pitcher this winter and he'll wind up an All-Star. Trade him and Castillo for Ross and Alonso Edit: I kind of think Alonso is suffering from Beltre-in-Seattle-itis and a change of scenery would do him well. But I'm really rooting for Shaw and hope he rakes in September. If he does I think signing Park Jung Ho makes sense as a RHB counterpart (shaw could also see time at 3B/LF depending on injuries and such).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2015 10:30:36 GMT -5
I get this unexplained feeling that Shaw might be one of those guys who thrive in the spotlight of the majors or perhaps just a late bloomer like Brendon Moss. He looks like he might counter the disappointment of Cecchini. They'll probably trade him for a relief pitcher this winter and he'll wind up an All-Star. He has a 1444 OPS in 38 PA in Fenway and 251 in 25 PA on the road. A likelier component to his unexpected MLB success is that he's one of those LHH that thrives in Fenway, even though his spray charts don't show him taking advantage of the park much at all. Fenway has a great hitter's background; I wonder if that's a factor. From all the evidence I can see, he's good enough to start at 3B in MLB*. Whether he's a first division starter, and whether his bat is good enough to be a starter (let alone a first-division starter) at 1B -- those are all as yet unanswered questions. He'd be a great asset for next year's bench, but if he keeps hitting, he may be more valuable as a trade chip. You can pick up a decent LHH OF / 1B or 1B/ 3B bench guy for essentially nothing, and not pay him much to boot. *Davenport Age-Adjusted Translations .277 .295 .254 .273 .257 before yesterday
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 18, 2015 19:53:34 GMT -5
Is there any chance we can go into next season with Travis as the starting first baseman? It seems like a risky move, but he has been very productive player. I know its during meaningless baseball, but the way Shaw has been hitting has to be recognized. The free agent options are average, Chris Davis is someone I would consider making a run at.
Thoughts?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 18, 2015 19:57:43 GMT -5
Chris Davis may been tempting, but he's not an ideal fit for Fenway, isn't young, has shown he can be inconsistent, and has a low floor.
I love Shaw, but I don't know if I completely bank on him having 1B next year. Signing that Korean 1B Park Jung Ho seems like a good play if he is as nearly as cheap as Kang was, as he could platoon with Shaw and give us flexibility if Shaw or Pablo/3B get hurt or bust.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 18, 2015 20:23:31 GMT -5
Shaw is three for three tonight. The swing is spot on lately. I know he runs hot and cold, but right now he is really looking solid at the plate.
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Post by jchang on Aug 18, 2015 20:34:23 GMT -5
Yeah but his Iso went down a bunch tonight
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