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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 27, 2023 12:34:07 GMT -5
Something about this roster tells me that we won't be having this discussion much after July 1st. It will be more like what prospects can the Sox get for Paxton, Kluber, Jansen etc... This feels like a prediction that contradicts itself. If they can get meaningful prospects for all those guys the team is probably pretty good. Not really. You're talking about 2 5ths of the rotation and the closer. Not to mention that Paxton and Kluber are on good contracts. If Paxton and Kluber pitch decent you can get something for them. You still have to worry about the entire lineup and 3 other starting pitchers. Some of the people on this team will have value no matter what. Guys like Duvall and Kiké will always have value. Will they be able to get a top prospect? No. But marginal 40 man roster players that might turn into something or might not. Which is right up Bloom's alley. Believe me, I want this team to contend but too many things have to go right in order for them to get a wild card spot. The lineup is set up where all opposing pitchers have to do is pitch around Devers. On a contender, having a guy like Paxton or Mondesi hit would be huge, and it would be a nice to have for that team. This team? Its essential that all of these lottery tickets hit. Mathematically its possible but the odds are probably really low.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 27, 2023 12:36:00 GMT -5
I could also see them spending a decent chunk on a pitcher on a medium/longer term deal, upgrading the Kluber/Paxton spot. There's a lot of interesting arms (Urias, Nola, Severino, Montgomery, Ohtani) and after 2024 they're only committed to Whitlock from the current staff. The "Chaim Bloom is from Tampa and therefore will never sign a big contract" argument always seemed silly to me. But to be honest I do sort of wonder: will Chaim Bloom ever sign a top-tier free agent pitcher? Those gusy get long-term contracts well into their 30s, and the injury risk is terrifying in the best of circumstances... maybe he just thinks the risk isn't worth it? (Not to say he wouldn't trade for or extend a younger elite pitcher...) Honestly the free agent class for SP (and all positions) is very weak next offseason. If they make a slash, it’s going to be in 2024-2025 off-season. The players part of that class: SP: Zack Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow, Gerritt Cole, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, John Means, Walker Buehler Position: Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Tim Anderson, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Tyler O’Neill, Jeff McNeil, Paul Goldschmidt With these players available, it would be foolish to make any sizable FA investments next off-season.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 27, 2023 12:40:48 GMT -5
Okay, but a) that has nothing to do with the point I'm making, which is just that the Red Sox in no way operate like a small-market team.
And b) I would think that the Bloom critics would at least concede that he's been very good at mid-market free agent signings. For whatever his flaws, if you want a GM to grab you a 2 WAR player for $9 million or whatever, he's your guy. Obviously we'll have to wait and see how it goes with Kluber, Duvall, Kiké, Turner, and Jansen but his track record on these sorts of deals (Renfroe, Kiké, Wacha, etc.) has been good.
The record is good. There have been big misses though. Marwin. Richards. Paxton. These hurt. But I think the question is what you consider success… *relying* on mid-level signings that perform as midlevel signings and then finishing as a midlevel team can be taken multiple ways. If you sign a guy for $5 million, get 1 WAR out of him, abstractly, that is a really good value signing… but if he is asked to carry too much weight, it doesn’t make for a good team. I am not saying you are *wrong* — there have been some nice moves. But I would say the tactics have yet to justify the strategy. Well, Paxton wasn't really a miss, given that he was signed in large part for the chance at two discounted option years. There was a chance for him to pitch again by August or September, but he was never expected to be a major contributor in 2022. At the end of the day he ended up taking his option, and if you add his AAV last year to his AAV this year the end result of the deal essentially becomes a healthy Paxton on a 1/10.8 deal. In a world where guys like Rich Hill are getting 1/8, this seems more than reasonable.
Richards made $10 million and put up 1 fWAR despite getting his world rocked by the sticky stuff crackdown, which is something I don't think any GM could have expected. It was not the greatest of deals for sure, but it wasn't the end of the world either. He really didn't hurt the team all that much.
Marwin was atrocious but it was also only $3 million for -0.3 fWAR. He was terrible but it was not a big factor in the grand scheme of things.
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Edit: Getting good value out of FA signings, be they low-end, or mid-tier, or high-end guys, is usually a good way to help your team win. Obviously you don't want a team full of 1-2 WAR guys regardless of how much they're making, but getting good production relative to cost allows for spending on higher-end guys elsewhere. Long term, hopefully the percentage of homegrown guys providing that low to mid-end value goes up so that even more dollars can go back into FA studs or extensions for homegrown studs. In the meantime, though, getting good value on these mid-tier guys in order to fill holes is a good way to stay competitive. We're just not in a position to have studs everywhere right now; I'll happily settle for solid major leaguers with upside for more. Doubly so if it allows us to go over the luxury tax in 2024 and 2025 to supplement what should be an improving cast of young players.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 27, 2023 12:42:31 GMT -5
This feels like a prediction that contradicts itself. If they can get meaningful prospects for all those guys the team is probably pretty good. Not really. You're talking about 2 5ths of the rotation and the closer. Not to mention that Paxton and Kluber are on good contracts. If Paxton and Kluber pitch decent you can get something for them. You still have to worry about the entire lineup and 3 other starting pitchers. Some of the people on this team will have value no matter what. Guys like Duvall and Kiké will always have value. Will they be able to get a top prospect? No. But marginal 40 man roster players that might turn into something or might not. Which is right up Bloom's alley. Believe me, I want this team to contend but too many things have to go right in order for them to get a wild card spot. The lineup is set up where all opposing pitchers have to do is pitch around Devers. Did you feel that way in 2021 or 2022? Because there's really one big thing that needs to happen for the lineup to be about equally good, which is Yoshida hitting his projections. If he does, that's a reasonable facsimile of Xander. You have Turner replacing JDM. The rest of the cast is pretty much the same with, I would argue, more upside. As for the rotation I guess that's me buying into one of Whitlock/Bello/Sale working out, because in your scenario where Kluber and Paxton are worth something you've got three solid pitchers (Pivetta being a solid back end guy), and then add one of the three I named being solid and you have a good rotation overall. Jansen's on a big contract and will have a year and a half left so he'll also have to be pretty good to return something. This also might depend on what we think the threshold is to sell because what I'm saying is your scenario implies to me at least a team that's a bit above .500, which should be competing for a playoff spot and I believe would be unlikely to sell off.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 27, 2023 13:28:11 GMT -5
Not really. You're talking about 2 5ths of the rotation and the closer. Not to mention that Paxton and Kluber are on good contracts. If Paxton and Kluber pitch decent you can get something for them. You still have to worry about the entire lineup and 3 other starting pitchers. Some of the people on this team will have value no matter what. Guys like Duvall and Kiké will always have value. Will they be able to get a top prospect? No. But marginal 40 man roster players that might turn into something or might not. Which is right up Bloom's alley. Believe me, I want this team to contend but too many things have to go right in order for them to get a wild card spot. The lineup is set up where all opposing pitchers have to do is pitch around Devers. Did you feel that way in 2021 or 2022? Because there's really one big thing that needs to happen for the lineup to be about equally good, which is Yoshida hitting his projections. If he does, that's a reasonable facsimile of Xander. You have Turner replacing JDM. The rest of the cast is pretty much the same with, I would argue, more upside.As for the rotation I guess that's me buying into one of Whitlock/Bello/Sale working out, because in your scenario where Kluber and Paxton are worth something you've got three solid pitchers (Pivetta being a solid back end guy), and then add one of the three I named being solid and you have a good rotation overall. Jansen's on a big contract and will have a year and a half left so he'll also have to be pretty good to return something. This also might depend on what we think the threshold is to sell because what I'm saying is your scenario implies to me at least a team that's a bit above .500, which should be competing for a playoff spot and I believe would be unlikely to sell off. I'm with you for the most part, but I do think you're slightly underselling the challenge of matching the 2021 offense. JDM had a 127 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR that season, which is a bit beyond reasonable median projections for Turner. They would need Casas to put up maybe a 120 wRC+ to replace what they got from Dalbec (106 wRC+) and Schwarber (160 in basically a quarter of a season), which is possible but certainly not guaranteed. Can Duvall match Renfroe's 113 wRC+? Can Kiké match his own 109? Can Arroyo match his own 106? If Mondesi is healthy enough to get significant PAs they'll benefit from his defense, but that probably pulls their offense down from the 2021 baseline as well. And god help them if Devers goes on the IL for any amount of time...
Hopefully they'll be able to avoid the absolute black holes (Franchy, Marwin, Santana, Duran, Chavis, Arauz) that pulled down the 2021 team.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 27, 2023 13:53:19 GMT -5
Most of our moves this season have been looking for bargains and not to boldly get us out of last place. We have acted like a small market team with a real limited payroll. The only move I applaud is the signing of Devers which was a big commitment. This move is for future years as it does not improve this team because he was signed for this year and already on this team. This team is order to compete for the playoffs would have to have so many things happen right and I can't see it happening. Just look at last year we subtracted 70 home runs from our lineup and where did we finish. This year Bogaerts is gone from a power hungry lineup and no sure players have been added. When the answers for your team are questionable players, luck usually plays to much in your team's success. I really hope I am wrong because I love the the Red Sox. Hopefully this is really a bridge year, a team building for 2024 when we will make a commitment to winning a championship. Making trades with future in mind not half in or out, signing free agents that are completely healthy and even maybe costly. Acting like we a large market team not Kansa City. "You are right I am stuck in November because that is when we could have made improvements to this team, We did make some bullpen improvements but our starting pitching depends on Sale and Paxton's health, and is Kluber is he better than Eovldi another question. Our lineup is full of questions those fans that are saying we always try to find bargains I agree with. That should not be are only plan we need to first try to find sure things and then try to find the maybe bargain types. I also agree with fans that we just don't throw money at players but need to address contracts early so we don't lose players like a Bogaerts, Betts and have no replacements for, eventually you can't compete. I am a Red Sox fan in a large market city and it is a fan like you that allows management to present an off season like this and defend them. I hope I am really wrong and you can laugh at me at the end of the year." Who DMs their response lol, be a man and post it in public. "Fans like me", aka the ones who aren't bitching and moaning are the reason we didn't spend? Categorically false, they spent big on Yoshida and Jansen. The bullpen is completely remade and looks like it could be a real strength, and they're still talking to the guys remaining on the market. Maybe you should consider buying a Steve Cohen jersey if you won't be satisfied unless a team spends $500m every offseason
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 27, 2023 14:04:14 GMT -5
What is your problem?
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Post by seamus on Jan 27, 2023 14:19:16 GMT -5
The thing I like about the current projected lineup is that it's unlikely that anyone will be truly bad, and the weakest batters play the most important defensive positions such that their below-average production isn't really notably bad compared to their peers. Mondesi is pretty easily the worst hitter of the projected starters, but the baserunning is an interesting offensive counterbalance to his meh numbers at the dish before even factoring in defense. It's plausible that 7 starters post >100 wRC+, with several of them having the potential for All-Star caliber production, and that also doesn't include Story's potential return at some point. You can go an awfully long way just avoiding bad players. Looking at the whole team, if you t ake 48 wins as a given, you need to find 40+ wins to be playoff contender under the current format.
- LF Yoshida
- 3B Devers
- DH Turner
- 1B Casas
- RF Verdugo
- CF Duvall
- SS Hernandez
- C McGuire
- 2B Mondesi
- Bench: Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Tapia/Dalbec/Duran/Allen/Valdez/whoever
I see a lot of ways that those guys can get to something like 25+ WAR without anyone besides Devers needing to really post elite numbers. There's no spot that should get less than 1 WAR, so a 5 from Devers actually makes forward progress versus just cancelling out 1B like last year. Last year's much-maligned pitching staff posted about 10-12 WAR (depending on your preferred flavor) and I think it is pretty clearly better this season... I just see a lot of routes to that 40+ win territory. I think at this point the team is going to keep an eye out for any trade opportunities, but mostly just work to build upper minor league depth so that they can better weather any injuries that come up, ensuring that nobody on the 26-man roster is a drain.
(NB: it's a quiet Friday at the office and my wife and I are going to have our first actual date night away from the kids in ages, so I'm in an extremely optimistic mood.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 27, 2023 14:44:36 GMT -5
Did you feel that way in 2021 or 2022? Because there's really one big thing that needs to happen for the lineup to be about equally good, which is Yoshida hitting his projections. If he does, that's a reasonable facsimile of Xander. You have Turner replacing JDM. The rest of the cast is pretty much the same with, I would argue, more upside.As for the rotation I guess that's me buying into one of Whitlock/Bello/Sale working out, because in your scenario where Kluber and Paxton are worth something you've got three solid pitchers (Pivetta being a solid back end guy), and then add one of the three I named being solid and you have a good rotation overall. Jansen's on a big contract and will have a year and a half left so he'll also have to be pretty good to return something. This also might depend on what we think the threshold is to sell because what I'm saying is your scenario implies to me at least a team that's a bit above .500, which should be competing for a playoff spot and I believe would be unlikely to sell off. I'm with you for the most part, but I do think you're slightly underselling the challenge of matching the 2021 offense. JDM had a 127 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR that season, which is a bit beyond reasonable median projections for Turner. They would need Casas to put up maybe a 120 wRC+ to replace what they got from Dalbec (106 wRC+) and Schwarber (160 in basically a quarter of a season), which is possible but certainly not guaranteed. Can Duvall match Renfroe's 113 wRC+? Can Kiké match his own 109? Can Arroyo match his own 106? If Mondesi is healthy enough to get significant PAs they'll benefit from his defense, but that probably pulls their offense down from the 2021 baseline as well. And god help them if Devers goes on the IL for any amount of time...
Hopefully they'll be able to avoid the absolute black holes (Franchy, Marwin, Santana, Duran, Chavis, Arauz) that pulled down the 2021 team.
I agree with you though that I'm not expecting them to be 2021 level, largely for the questions you mentioned. But I think the range between those things happening and the likely outcome (maybe Turner doesn't project quite to JD's level, but hitting slightly worse with better timing would lead to better outcomes anyways, Casas vs. Dalbec, Kiké's performance, etc.) is small enough that if Yoshida hits his median projections they'll be somewhere in between the 2021 - 2022 level, which is an above average offense.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 27, 2023 14:53:16 GMT -5
The thing I like about the current projected lineup is that it's unlikely that anyone will be truly bad, and the weakest batters play the most important defensive positions such that their below-average production isn't really notably bad compared to their peers. Mondesi is pretty easily the worst hitter of the projected starters, but the baserunning is an interesting offensive counterbalance to his meh numbers at the dish before even factoring in defense. It's plausible that 7 starters post >100 wRC+, with several of them having the potential for All-Star caliber production, and that also doesn't include Story's potential return at some point. You can go an awfully long way just avoiding bad players. Looking at the whole team, if you t ake 48 wins as a given, you need to find 40+ wins to be playoff contender under the current format.
- LF Yoshida
- 3B Devers
- DH Turner
- 1B Casas
- RF Verdugo
- CF Duvall
- SS Hernandez
- C McGuire
- 2B Mondesi
- Bench: Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Tapia/Dalbec/Duran/Allen/Valdez/whoever
I see a lot of ways that those guys can get to something like 25+ WAR without anyone besides Devers needing to really post elite numbers. There's no spot that should get less than 1 WAR, so a 5 from Devers actually makes forward progress versus just cancelling out 1B like last year. Last year's much-maligned pitching staff posted about 10-12 WAR (depending on your preferred flavor) and I think it is pretty clearly better this season... I just see a lot of routes to that 40+ win territory. I think at this point the team is going to keep an eye out for any trade opportunities, but mostly just work to build upper minor league depth so that they can better weather any injuries that come up, ensuring that nobody on the 26-man roster is a drain.
(NB: it's a quiet Friday at the office and my wife and I are going to have our first actual date night away from the kids in ages, so I'm in an extremely optimistic mood.) Someone catch me up on the latest lineup construction theories - Is Devers locked into the second spot and is that what is generally considered optimal? Because in my head I would love to see Verdugo's offseason workout regimen bring him back to a level where he could feasibly be the second (or even leadoff) guy and moved Devers/Turner/Casas back a spot, though that's partially because I am still hesitant to put my full faith in Casas to hit cleanup. I'd also probably flip Duvall and Kiké but like I've made extremely clear I'm not really in tune with what is considered an efficient lineup optimization. I think there is a pretty clear scenario in which this team has a very high ceiling. If they get 2021 Kiké, 2021 Verdugo, 2021 Duvall, and Yoshida/Casas both hit like they are expected to, the offense could be very good. The problem is the odds of all five of those events happening is pretty minimal and what percentage of them need to happen in order for the team to compete? Personally, I think Verdugo, Yoshida, and Casas being good would be enough to have this team competitive in addition to what should be an improved pitching staff on all fronts. This team is basically the world's most expensive Rorschach Test at this point, because most people are just seeing what they want to see. And that's not even necessarily wrong (although there are some people here whose perceptions are definitely off base), because there are just genuinely a lot of different ways you could perceive what this team is/could be.
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Post by seamus on Jan 27, 2023 15:03:14 GMT -5
I believe Cora has indicated that it'll be Yoshida/Devers at the top, handedness be damned, but who knows if that'll hold? The big lineup construction theory is that your best hitter should bat either 2nd or 4th, with 3rd being the least valuable spot of the top four slots. Every investigation I've ever seen says that the difference between the absolute best lineup construction and the most deliberately terrible one is like 1 win, so it's probably not too important and should be based as much on the psychological benefits to the players as anything else.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 27, 2023 15:17:02 GMT -5
Not really. You're talking about 2 5ths of the rotation and the closer. Not to mention that Paxton and Kluber are on good contracts. If Paxton and Kluber pitch decent you can get something for them. You still have to worry about the entire lineup and 3 other starting pitchers. Some of the people on this team will have value no matter what. Guys like Duvall and Kiké will always have value. Will they be able to get a top prospect? No. But marginal 40 man roster players that might turn into something or might not. Which is right up Bloom's alley. Believe me, I want this team to contend but too many things have to go right in order for them to get a wild card spot. The lineup is set up where all opposing pitchers have to do is pitch around Devers. Did you feel that way in 2021 or 2022? Because there's really one big thing that needs to happen for the lineup to be about equally good, which is Yoshida hitting his projections. If he does, that's a reasonable facsimile of Xander. You have Turner replacing JDM. The rest of the cast is pretty much the same with, I would argue, more upside. As for the rotation I guess that's me buying into one of Whitlock/Bello/Sale working out, because in your scenario where Kluber and Paxton are worth something you've got three solid pitchers (Pivetta being a solid back end guy), and then add one of the three I named being solid and you have a good rotation overall. Jansen's on a big contract and will have a year and a half left so he'll also have to be pretty good to return something. This also might depend on what we think the threshold is to sell because what I'm saying is your scenario implies to me at least a team that's a bit above .500, which should be competing for a playoff spot and I believe would be unlikely to sell off. Big difference. You had Xander and JDM in the lineup to surround Devers. Even before JD fell off in 2022, pitchers had to game plan for those guys. Yoshi is a true unknown. But he fits into the gamble category. I like the player, but he's not someone you avoid facing. Who scares you in this lineup? The answer last year was Xander and Devers. This year, it's just Devers. Yeah, Turner is okay, but he's pushing 40. It all comes back to having a ton of question marks in the lineup. I agree if one big thing happens then they're in the same boat as last year, however at least to begin the year no one is going to be scared of this offense.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 27, 2023 15:32:21 GMT -5
Did you feel that way in 2021 or 2022? Because there's really one big thing that needs to happen for the lineup to be about equally good, which is Yoshida hitting his projections. If he does, that's a reasonable facsimile of Xander. You have Turner replacing JDM. The rest of the cast is pretty much the same with, I would argue, more upside. As for the rotation I guess that's me buying into one of Whitlock/Bello/Sale working out, because in your scenario where Kluber and Paxton are worth something you've got three solid pitchers (Pivetta being a solid back end guy), and then add one of the three I named being solid and you have a good rotation overall. Jansen's on a big contract and will have a year and a half left so he'll also have to be pretty good to return something. This also might depend on what we think the threshold is to sell because what I'm saying is your scenario implies to me at least a team that's a bit above .500, which should be competing for a playoff spot and I believe would be unlikely to sell off. Big difference. You had Xander and JDM in the lineup to surround Devers. Even before JD fell off in 2022, pitchers had to game plan for those guys. Yoshi is a true unknown. But he fits into the gamble category. I like the player, but he's not someone you avoid facing. Who scares you in this lineup? The answer last year was Xander and Devers. This year, it's just Devers. Yeah, Turner is okay, but he's pushing 40. It all comes back to having a ton of question marks in the lineup. I agree if one big thing happens then they're in the same boat as last year, however at least to begin the year no one is going to be scared of this offense. Yes my point on Yoshi was that if he hits his projections he more or less = Xander offensively. Turner more or less = JDM. They could both be slightly worse than those guys and the offense could improve from where it was last year based on improvements at other positions or even just better sequencing. I framed the Yoshi part as the big question though, I agree it's absolutely not certain, but if that comes true the offense is not really structured any differently than it has been the past two years. My main point is that the hopelessness of the offense has been greatly overstated. ADD: Again though I think it's partially expectation setting, no one is saying they have a juggernaut. Is the offense going to be what we all want it to be eventually (top 3 in baseball)? No probably not. But there's no reason to think they can't be top 10 in runs scored again.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2023 16:05:05 GMT -5
I believe Cora has indicated that it'll be Yoshida/Devers at the top, handedness be damned, but who knows if that'll hold? The big lineup construction theory is that your best hitter should bat either 2nd or 4th, with 3rd being the least valuable spot of the top four slots. Every investigation I've ever seen says that the difference between the absolute best lineup construction and the most deliberately terrible one is like 1 win, so it's probably not too important and should be based as much on the psychological benefits to the players as anything else. In terms of how psychologically a lineup “feels,” man I would love Casas at clean-up. A mustachioed colossus who hits bombs? But Cora did mention at the winter weekend though about not wanting to put too much on young players too quickly (i.e. Duran at lead off last year) so I kinda doubt it. If it’s Yoshi, Devers to lead off, it feels weird to slot most of the dudes in at the 4 spot. Verdugo doesn’t have a lot of power, Duvall K’s a lot, etc. At the risk of the entire board questioning my sanity… you know the last time we saw Kiké Hernandez before it turned out his hip was about to explode, he was hitting like Babe Ruth in the 2021 Playoffs. As he said of Justin Turner, “His path and his career are one of my biggest inspirations!” Justin Turner did not become an all star player until he was 31. Kiké turned 31 in August. (I have a feeling the idea of batting Kiké at cleanup will… uh, not be well received 😅)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 28, 2023 0:31:50 GMT -5
Relative to last year's actual and relative to the new rules for this upcoming year, my view is..
We've improved the expected starting pitching. We've improved the bullpen considerably. We've improved the defense considerably. We've improved the on base speed considerably. We've improved the expected OBP considerably and therefore the runs expected. We've improved the overall catching depth.
We'll likely see some relative minor tinkering.
I'm ready to rock and roll.
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Post by benfromma on Jan 29, 2023 9:32:10 GMT -5
This is a response to freddysthefuture2003, I thought I was responding to you on the message board. I am sorry, and thank you for posting my response on the board. I have been a Red Sox fan since 1960 and have seen lots of Red Sox history. I couldn't talk about the 1986 World Series results for weeks after it happened. I never thought that World Series would happen in my lifetime but wow 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 happened. Ownership should get credit for those achievements. That does not give them a lifetime pass. The Patriots have won 6 Super Bowls and did you read the newspapers and hear the talk shows. I am just trying to hold management accountable, I feel the last few off seasons have been horrible, when you lose 70 homeruns and replace him with Jackie Bradley and finish in last place. Then at the trade deadline what is your plan are you competing for the playoffs or are you gathering talent for the future. It cost us with lower draft pick slots because we didn't get under salary cap threshold. Then this off season we lose Bogaerts, and replace him with who ? I do agree our bullpen is better (Jansen) but are we going to score enough to use him ? Yoshida is a commitment but is he enough to get us to compete for the playoffs. I am a major fan and really hope everything comes together and that management has a plan but I don't see it for 2023. (again nothing would make me happier if you could write me I told you so message) My comments really aren't aimed at you but trying to get management to be accountable and not live on those past successes.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jan 29, 2023 11:30:18 GMT -5
Big difference. You had Xander and JDM in the lineup to surround Devers. Even before JD fell off in 2022, pitchers had to game plan for those guys. Yoshi is a true unknown. But he fits into the gamble category. I like the player, but he's not someone you avoid facing. Who scares you in this lineup? The answer last year was Xander and Devers. This year, it's just Devers. Yeah, Turner is okay, but he's pushing 40. It all comes back to having a ton of question marks in the lineup. I agree if one big thing happens then they're in the same boat as last year, however at least to begin the year no one is going to be scared of this offense. Yes my point on Yoshi was that if he hits his projections he more or less = Xander offensively. Turner more or less = JDM. They could both be slightly worse than those guys and the offense could improve from where it was last year based on improvements at other positions or even just better sequencing. I framed the Yoshi part as the big question though, I agree it's absolutely not certain, but if that comes true the offense is not really structured any differently than it has been the past two years. My main point is that the hopelessness of the offense has been greatly overstated. ADD: Again though I think it's partially expectation setting, no one is saying they have a juggernaut. Is the offense going to be what we all want it to be eventually (top 3 in baseball)? No probably not. But there's no reason to think they can't be top 10 in runs scored again. I think that one thing that cannot be overlooked is that in 2022 and even in the impressive 2021 they gave a ridiculous number of plate appearance to guys with very weak bats. I actually blame all the near-automatic outs for destroying Barnes, because with the hitters at the top of the lineup they should have had far fewer close games. In 2022 they gave over 1500 plate appearances to Dalbec, JBJ, Cordero, Pham, Duran, Plawecki, Hosmer, Yolmer, Downs, Chang, Shaw (0 for 19) and Arauz (0 for 12), some of whom had brief hot streaks then were useless the rest of the time; add in JD who was Kryptonian until May 29 and then hit .232 .301 .392 .693 after that. In 2021 it was Marwin, Franchy, Santana, Duran, Chavis, Arauz, Lopez and Munoz, as well as Dalbec until Aug 11 and after Sept 18 (in the 100 PA between those dates he was .315 .390 .820 1.210). The Story injury means we may have to give some PAs to weak bats again, but it'll be more like "I can go to the bathroom when this guy is batting" rather than "I can go clean my garage while these five guys bat."
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Post by manfred on Jan 29, 2023 11:42:57 GMT -5
Yes my point on Yoshi was that if he hits his projections he more or less = Xander offensively. Turner more or less = JDM. They could both be slightly worse than those guys and the offense could improve from where it was last year based on improvements at other positions or even just better sequencing. I framed the Yoshi part as the big question though, I agree it's absolutely not certain, but if that comes true the offense is not really structured any differently than it has been the past two years. My main point is that the hopelessness of the offense has been greatly overstated. ADD: Again though I think it's partially expectation setting, no one is saying they have a juggernaut. Is the offense going to be what we all want it to be eventually (top 3 in baseball)? No probably not. But there's no reason to think they can't be top 10 in runs scored again. I think that one thing that cannot be overlooked is that in 2022 and even in the impressive 2021 they gave a ridiculous number of plate appearance to guys with very weak bats. I actually blame all the near-automatic outs for destroying Barnes, because with the hitters at the top of the lineup they should have had far fewer close games. In 2022 they gave over 1500 plate appearances to Dalbec, JBJ, Cordero, Pham, Duran, Plawecki, Hosmer, Yolmer, Downs, Chang, Shaw (0 for 19) and Arauz (0 for 12), some of whom had brief hot streaks then were useless the rest of the time; add in JD who was Kryptonian until May 29 and then hit .232 .301 .392 .693 after that. In 2021 it was Marwin, Franchy, Santana, Duran, Chavis, Arauz, Lopez and Munoz, as well as Dalbec until Aug 11 and after Sept 18 (in the 100 PA between those dates he was .315 .390 .820 1.210). The Story injury means we may have to give some PAs to weak bats again, but it'll be more like "I can go to the bathroom when this guy is batting" rather than "I can go clean my garage while these five guys bat." This is true, but the one thing to consider is that a guy like Dalbec, for example, was not expected (by many) to be that black hole. Some thought he might breakout going into last year. Duran was a top prospect who raked in AAA. So it is best to remember black holes appear unexpectedly. I wouldn’t be shocked by poor offense from catcher and middle infield, for example. I’m not saying the bigger point isn’t likely correct, but I do think it is good to remember that optimists going into last year underestimated how bad some of the guys you list turned out.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 29, 2023 11:49:44 GMT -5
This is a response to freddysthefuture2003, I thought I was responding to you on the message board. I am sorry, and thank you for posting my response on the board. I have been a Red Sox fan since 1960 and have seen lots of Red Sox history. I couldn't talk about the 1986 World Series results for weeks after it happened. I never thought that World Series would happen in my lifetime but wow 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 happened. Ownership should get credit for those achievements. That does not give them a lifetime pass. The Patriots have won 6 Super Bowls and did you read the newspapers and hear the talk shows. I am just trying to hold management accountable, I feel the last few off seasons have been horrible, when you lose 70 homeruns and replace him with Jackie Bradley and finish in last place. Then at the trade deadline what is your plan are you competing for the playoffs or are you gathering talent for the future. It cost us with lower draft pick slots because we didn't get under salary cap threshold. Then this off season we lose Bogaerts, and replace him with who ? I do agree our bullpen is better (Jansen) but are we going to score enough to use him ? Yoshida is a commitment but is he enough to get us to compete for the playoffs. I am a major fan and really hope everything comes together and that management has a plan but I don't see it for 2023. (again nothing would make me happier if you could write me I told you so message) My comments really aren't aimed at you but trying to get management to be accountable and not live on those past successes. They didn't lose 70 homeruns. The homeruns that Schwarber hit with the Nationals don't just automatically get added to the Red Sox total. They thought they were replacing that power in the lineup with Story, and before he got hurt, he was well on his way to 25+ HR
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 29, 2023 12:00:12 GMT -5
I think that one thing that cannot be overlooked is that in 2022 and even in the impressive 2021 they gave a ridiculous number of plate appearance to guys with very weak bats. I actually blame all the near-automatic outs for destroying Barnes, because with the hitters at the top of the lineup they should have had far fewer close games. In 2022 they gave over 1500 plate appearances to Dalbec, JBJ, Cordero, Pham, Duran, Plawecki, Hosmer, Yolmer, Downs, Chang, Shaw (0 for 19) and Arauz (0 for 12), some of whom had brief hot streaks then were useless the rest of the time; add in JD who was Kryptonian until May 29 and then hit .232 .301 .392 .693 after that. In 2021 it was Marwin, Franchy, Santana, Duran, Chavis, Arauz, Lopez and Munoz, as well as Dalbec until Aug 11 and after Sept 18 (in the 100 PA between those dates he was .315 .390 .820 1.210). The Story injury means we may have to give some PAs to weak bats again, but it'll be more like "I can go to the bathroom when this guy is batting" rather than "I can go clean my garage while these five guys bat." This is true, but the one thing to consider is that a guy like Dalbec, for example, was not expected (by many) to be that black hole. Some thought he might breakout going into last year. Duran was a top prospect who raked in AAA. So it is best to remember black holes appear unexpectedly. I wouldn’t be shocked by poor offense from catcher and middle infield, for example. I’m not saying the bigger point isn’t likely correct, but I do think it is good to remember that optimists going into last year underestimated how bad some of the guys you list turned out. I am definitely guilty of being too high on Dalbec. I wasn't expecting the world, but he ended up being worse than where I would have set his floor. I thought he could at least keep the seat warm on a league minimum salary until Casas was ready. He was unreal down the stretch in 2021 and with more time at 1B I thought his defense would improve enough that his bat could stagnate and he'd still have some value. His glove actually did improve a bit, but it was still a mess at 1B and his wRC+ cratered to 80... So many non-competitive at-bats T_T
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jan 30, 2023 11:44:19 GMT -5
Any chance the Sox would do a Matt Barnes for Paul Dejong swap with St.Louis eating 3 or 4 million of Dejong's money? Seems like a guy that needs a change of scenery...
Or perhaps trying to pry Nick Madrigal from the Cubs for Dalbec plus a prospect?
Seems like both players have been pushed out of their jobs and could benefit by playing in Fenway.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 30, 2023 14:55:10 GMT -5
So post-Barnes trade, how much money do they have left under the cap?
Relatedly: any non-competetive small-market teams out there that might be interesting in Brasier, Dalbec, Duran, and the opportunity to unload a solid but somewhat pricey arb-years second baseman?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 15:34:16 GMT -5
So post-Barnes trade, how much money do they have left under the cap?
Relatedly: any non-competetive small-market teams out there that might be interesting in Brasier, Dalbec, Duran, and the opportunity to unload a solid but somewhat pricey arb-years second baseman?
It seems like they should have about $15M give or take a couple. I can't find an obvious candidate for a trade like that. I can see the value of guys like Amed Rosario or Tony Kemp but I'm not sure they really upgrade the roster much. Then there's Jake Cronenworth, Tommy Edman, Luis Urias, Tim Anderson, Nico Hoerner, Ha-Seong Kim, but all those teams are trying to compete not sure they'd be looking to cut salary or downgrade at all. Berti and/or Wendle might still make sense but you'd think that would have gotten done. Maybe the Tigers want to trade Baez and would eat 3/4 of the contract? Kidding but there's really no obvious choice.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 15:39:57 GMT -5
I'm still here trying to wait out Elvis Andrus. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they added a SS who can push Kiké back to playing CF most days (or at least make it a spring training competition). Mondesi is a nice acquisition but likely won't be ready to start the season and would be nice if they didn't need to rely on him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 30, 2023 15:52:17 GMT -5
I'm still here trying to wait out Elvis Andrus. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they added a SS who can push Kiké back to playing CF most days (or at least make it a spring training competition). Mondesi is a nice acquisition but likely won't be ready to start the season and would be nice if they didn't need to rely on him. This is where I'm at as well, I really don't want to see Hernandez being the planned upon SS. I think he offers more value in CF than he would at SS since he's been a better defensive player at CF than SS. If there's injuries and he's forced to play a lot of SS fine but in my opinion it should not be the plan. Andrus, maybe Iglesias or trade for someone who can play SS before opening day is my hope. I don't necessarily see a trade for even an average-ish starting caliber SS coming to fruition at this point though. They don't really grow on trees.
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