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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 30, 2023 16:05:46 GMT -5
Adding a full time short stop pushes Duvall to the bench most days and I'm not sure they're better off with Andrus starting than Duvall. If they do add Andrus and rotate those guys that's fine but trading for someone better than Andrus seems preferable to me if they could find a fit. Iglesias at presumably a pretty low price (around the Harrison deal?) makes more sense to me as someone they could easily cut later depending on health of Mondesi/Arroyo/Kiké/Story.
Also - and I don't think they should plan this way - but Kiké seems to really want to / be excited about playing short.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 16:56:35 GMT -5
I think theyâre better off with Andrus/Kiké than they are with Kiké/Duvall even if Duvall is slightly better than Andrus because I know Kiké is an elite defensive CF whereas Iâm more skeptical of him full time at SS.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 30, 2023 17:24:14 GMT -5
I saw a tweet a while ago that said all of him former GMs think he should be a shortstop.
I'm more skeptical of Duvall as a full time CF than Kiké as a full time SS.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 30, 2023 17:57:21 GMT -5
I think theyâÂÂre better off with Andrus/Kiké than they are with Kiké/Duvall even if Duvall is slightly better than Andrus because I know Kiké is an elite defensive CF whereas IâÂÂm more skeptical of him full time at SS. I completely agree, and part of me wonders if there actually will be another middle IF acquisition to force Kiké back to CF most of the time. I don't see any holes on the roster right now and even the most conservative projections (@redsoxpayroll) show about $12 million of space under the luxury tax threshold.
Imagine what a deep team that would be. Rob "Second Coming" Refsnyder at the back of the bench? Adam Duvall as a 4th OF? Multiple average to plus defenders at every up-the-middle position, including the potential for elite CF, SS, and 2B defense down the stretch if Story comes back? And with very solid depth in AAA, at least for the beginning of the year (Tapia, Allen, Goodrum, Duran, Dalbec, etc.)? Subscribe.
What a luxury that would be, given the amount of ABs we've given to below replacement level players in recent years.
Edit: And that would also be great insurance against underperformance, which feels extra important for the "kill them with above averageness" strat.
Edit 2: And I now see you and others were discussing just this on the last page! A few weeks checking the threads less obsessively and I'm all out of practice
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2023 7:24:19 GMT -5
Chad Jennings wrote in The Athletic today that the Sox still want an “experienced” infielder to go along with Kikè/Arroyo while Mondesi finishes his rehab. Not sure someone like Andrus fits into the pre-CBT amount they have left (~8 mil per RedSoxPayroll on Twitter) considering I’m sure they’ll want some sort of buffer.
Looking around different rosters the main name that seemed easily movable trade wise to me and looks like a fit was Tony Kemp from Oakland. He has one year/3 mil left, and he’s a lefty who can play both 2B (allowing Arroyo to move about the infield here when necessary) and some OF (so if/when Story comes back there’s still theoretically some value he can provide off the bench.) Oakland is just giving away any competent veterans they have, so I would imagine the asset cost is incredibly low compared to like the Taylor Walls/Luis Guillormes/name-your-backup-infielders of the world.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 31, 2023 7:35:42 GMT -5
Chad Jennings wrote in The Athletic today that the Sox still want an “experienced” infielder to go along with Kikè/Arroyo while Mondesi finishes his rehab. Not sure someone like Andrus fits into the pre-CBT amount they have left (~8 mil per RedSoxPayroll on Twitter) considering I’m sure they’ll want some sort of buffer. Looking around different rosters the main name that seemed easily movable trade wise to me and looks like a fit was Tony Kemp from Oakland. He has one year/3 mil left, and he’s a lefty who can play both 2B (allowing Arroyo to move about the infield here when necessary) and some OF (so if/when Story comes back there’s still theoretically some value he can provide off the bench.) Oakland is just giving away any competent veterans they have, so I would imagine the asset cost is incredibly low compared to like the Taylor Walls/Luis Guillormes/name-your-backup-infielders of the world. On this roster, somehow Tony Kemp would make sense.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 31, 2023 8:49:18 GMT -5
I think theyâre better off with Andrus/Kiké than they are with Kiké/Duvall even if Duvall is slightly better than Andrus because I know Kiké is an elite defensive CF whereas Iâm more skeptical of him full time at SS. I think for Andrus only makes sense if we are trading Verdugo for something and having Hernandez and Duvall at CF and RF But there are no good fits for a Verdugo trade unless we are trying to package him, houck and prospects for a young number 1/2 pitcher
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jan 31, 2023 9:30:45 GMT -5
Can we circle back to a Bryan Reynolds trade, involving the much speculated package of Houck + Rafaela? Then flip Verdugo, perhaps? Might be a lot to ask in February. Hernandez would stay at SS.
In seeing how the lineup stacks up, especially since Story's injury came to light, it seems like there's a big bat missing. Slide everyone after Devers (assuming he's batting 2nd but 4th is also possible) down one spot and the lineup becomes much deeper.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 31, 2023 9:33:16 GMT -5
Can we circle back to a Bryan Reynolds trade, involving the much speculated package of Houck + Rafaela? Then flip Verdugo, perhaps? Might be a lot to ask in February. Hernandez would stay at SS. In seeing how the lineup stacks up, especially since Story's injury came to light, it seems like there's a big bat missing. Slide everyone after Devers (assuming he's batting 2nd but 4th is also possible) down one spot and the lineup becomes much deeper. Based off the reported asking price from the Piratest that doesn't get you Reynolds, perhaps not even close. They're reported to want two top 100 type prospects and then some. Rafaela, one of Mayer/Casas/Bello and Houck is closer to what it'd cost and that may not even be enough.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 31, 2023 9:43:02 GMT -5
I think theyâre better off with Andrus/Kiké than they are with Kiké/Duvall even if Duvall is slightly better than Andrus because I know Kiké is an elite defensive CF whereas Iâm more skeptical of him full time at SS. I think for Andrus only makes sense if we are trading Verdugo for something and having Hernandez and Duvall at CF and RF But there are no good fits for a Verdugo trade unless we are trying to package him, houck and prospects for a young number 1/2 pitcher Why? Haven't we learned that OF depth and a 4th OF has value? I felt adding Duval finally got you the depth you need, then they announced Hernandez to SS. It's like Bloom is allergic to good OF depth. Given you can play Hernandez at SS/2B it works all day for me.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 31, 2023 9:54:31 GMT -5
One thing I might speculate re; Duvall is that part of the reason he chose to sign with the Red Sox is they promised him a starting role to begin the year. Not positive on that, but he cited playing time as a reason for his choice. If they did that they can’t really re-neg or they’re going to have a problem with future free agents.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 10:24:44 GMT -5
One thing I might speculate re; Duvall is that part of the reason he chose to sign with the Red Sox is they promised him a starting role to begin the year. Not positive on that, but he cited playing time as a reason for his choice. If they did that they canât really re-neg or theyâre going to have a problem with future free agents. Eh, the 10th player on a roster with as much positional flexibility as this one will basically play every day. Because of Kiké's ability to switch back and forth between OF and MIF, if any non-catcher needs a day off or is injured, Duvall would start.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 31, 2023 11:10:57 GMT -5
One thing I might speculate re; Duvall is that part of the reason he chose to sign with the Red Sox is they promised him a starting role to begin the year. Not positive on that, but he cited playing time as a reason for his choice. If they did that they canâÂÂt really re-neg or theyâÂÂre going to have a problem with future free agents. Eh, the 10th player on a roster with as much positional flexibility as this one will basically play every day. Because of Kiké's ability to switch back and forth between OF and MIF, if any non-catcher needs a day off or is injured, Duvall would start. Yeah I mean I actually think the way it ends up, if there's ever a stretch with everyone healthy, is a lot of rotation between Duvall/Mondesi/Arroyo/Kiké/Added Infielder X and to a lesser extent Verdugo/Casas/Turner/Yoshida based on matchups. I certainly hope Kiké plays lots of center and I probably agree they're better that way, but I guess I'm just saying I don't think Andrus being added is a slam dunk to make them a better team, and he might prioritize a place where he's going to get to be the every day short stop and I don't think the Red Sox set up well for that at this point.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 31, 2023 11:19:54 GMT -5
Eh, the 10th player on a roster with as much positional flexibility as this one will basically play every day. Because of Kiké's ability to switch back and forth between OF and MIF, if any non-catcher needs a day off or is injured, Duvall would start. Yeah I mean I actually think the way it ends up, if there's ever a stretch with everyone healthy, is a lot of rotation between Duvall/Mondesi/Arroyo/Kiké/Added Infielder X and to a lesser extent Verdugo/Casas/Turner/Yoshida based on matchups. I certainly hope Kiké plays lots of center and I probably agree they're better that way, but I guess I'm just saying I don't think Andrus being added is a slam dunk to make them a better team, and he might prioritize a place where he's going to get to be the every day short stop and I don't think the Red Sox set up well for that at this point. For me what it comes down to with Andrus is how much salary he is going to chew up. I don't know the exact $ amount they have left to spend while staying under the tax. For the purposes of this let's say it's 10M. I wouldn't want to pay Andrus more than 8 or so of that 10 which still puts them rather close to going over and especially so if they are in the position to be deadline buyers. It certainly could make more sense to try and keep more $ available come deadline time then it does signing Andrus right now, assuming they want to stay under the LT this year anyway. If they don't care all that much then by all means go get Andrus since it's just money. On the flipside though who knows who could be available for MI/CF by the deadline, plus hopefully Story is either back or close to being back by then anyway.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 31, 2023 11:24:43 GMT -5
I don’t know where to put this but any new news on Brock Bell. Is he ready to go this spring. I liked the pick. Thank you.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 11:56:34 GMT -5
Yeah I mean I actually think the way it ends up, if there's ever a stretch with everyone healthy, is a lot of rotation between Duvall/Mondesi/Arroyo/Kiké/Added Infielder X and to a lesser extent Verdugo/Casas/Turner/Yoshida based on matchups. I certainly hope Kiké plays lots of center and I probably agree they're better that way, but I guess I'm just saying I don't think Andrus being added is a slam dunk to make them a better team, and he might prioritize a place where he's going to get to be the every day short stop and I don't think the Red Sox set up well for that at this point. For me what it comes down to with Andrus is how much salary he is going to chew up. I don't know the exact $ amount they have left to spend while staying under the tax. For the purposes of this let's say it's 10M. I wouldn't want to pay Andrus more than 8 or so of that 10 which still puts them rather close to going over and especially so if they are in the position to be deadline buyers. It certainly could make more sense to try and keep more $ available come deadline time then it does signing Andrus right now, assuming they want to stay under the LT this year anyway. If they don't care all that much then by all means go get Andrus since it's just money. On the flipside though who knows who could be available for MI/CF by the deadline, plus hopefully Story is either back or close to being back by then anyway. Redsoxpayroll on Twitter has them with $8.25M of space, which I think is a little low (he has Paxton at $5M but I think it should be $4.2M (per Speier, it counted at $5.8M last year, so should be $4.2M this year) and he has $6.5M for bonuses/incentives that won't all be achieved) but is by far the most accurate one I've seen. Keeping in mind that they'll want to keep a slight buffer to potentially add guys like Alfaro ($2M), Allen ($1.4M) or Tapia ($2M) and for trades down the line, it doesn't leave much room for additions, so my idea of adding Andrus (RIP) is probably impossible now without subtracting salary elsewhere. They might have enough for Iglesias or a reliever, though.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 12:20:36 GMT -5
I was never very interested in bringing Iglesias back, but with Mondesi in the mix I think he'd make sense as a stopgap until Mondesi and later (hopefully) Story are healthy. And he'd fit comfortably under the CBT. I'd prefer a trade that brought back something a little better, but Iglesias seems like an adequate plan B.
Andrus? I'm just not seeing the fit there. Even if they could squeeze him under the CBT what would you even be upgrading? I don't think he'll sign just to be a stopgap, and I don't think he's better than any of Arroyo, Mondesi, or Duvall, and while he'd represent a moderate defensive upgrade, that's only the case when neither Story nor Mondesi are healthy, and he'd be an offensive downgrade as well when he's in the lineup (pushing one of Kiké/Duvall/Verdugo/Arroyo to the bench). I don't see him offering value anywhere near $8-10 million or whatever he'd cost.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 31, 2023 12:25:37 GMT -5
For me what it comes down to with Andrus is how much salary he is going to chew up. I don't know the exact $ amount they have left to spend while staying under the tax. For the purposes of this let's say it's 10M. I wouldn't want to pay Andrus more than 8 or so of that 10 which still puts them rather close to going over and especially so if they are in the position to be deadline buyers. It certainly could make more sense to try and keep more $ available come deadline time then it does signing Andrus right now, assuming they want to stay under the LT this year anyway. If they don't care all that much then by all means go get Andrus since it's just money. On the flipside though who knows who could be available for MI/CF by the deadline, plus hopefully Story is either back or close to being back by then anyway. Redsoxpayroll on Twitter has them with $8.25M of space, which I think is a little low (he has Paxton at $5M but I think it should be $4.2M (per Speier, it counted at $5.8M last year, so should be $4.2M this year) and he has $6.5M for bonuses/incentives that won't all be achieved) but is by far the most accurate one I've seen. Keeping in mind that they'll want to keep a slight buffer to potentially add guys like Alfaro ($2M), Allen ($1.4M) or Tapia ($2M) and for trades down the line, it doesn't leave much room for additions, so my idea of adding Andrus (RIP) is probably impossible now without subtracting salary elsewhere. They might have enough for Iglesias or a reliever, though. The other big question mark I've seen with RSP's estimates is the $12.67M in 40-man salary and bonuses, compared to Cots' $8.2M Estimate. When they've replaced 40-man minors/depth guys with guaranteed salary the $11M should reduce by the pro-rated amount of time you'd expect those guys to get which hasn't happened. Between that and some of the bonuses not being likely to hit they could have more than $13M. Not certain, but they might have room for Andrus under the cap still with a few million in room (if he signs for like $7/8). Cot's: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900 (note also some possible issues here, like Chris Martin's AAV estimate being $7.5 instead of $8.75)
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 31, 2023 12:40:46 GMT -5
Kemp at $3 million would fit. That figure could be reduced a bit by sending back a small salary return, but Oakland is more likely to want a prospect. I'd rather see a pick up that can play both 2B ad SS though, like Iglesias. If they can't find a 2B/ SS addition, the just go with Goodrum until Mondesi is back.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 31, 2023 12:59:24 GMT -5
Redsoxpayroll on Twitter has them with $8.25M of space, which I think is a little low (he has Paxton at $5M but I think it should be $4.2M (per Speier, it counted at $5.8M last year, so should be $4.2M this year) and he has $6.5M for bonuses/incentives that won't all be achieved) but is by far the most accurate one I've seen. Keeping in mind that they'll want to keep a slight buffer to potentially add guys like Alfaro ($2M), Allen ($1.4M) or Tapia ($2M) and for trades down the line, it doesn't leave much room for additions, so my idea of adding Andrus (RIP) is probably impossible now without subtracting salary elsewhere. They might have enough for Iglesias or a reliever, though. I wouldn't close the door on Andrus just yet. They can reuse the Justin Turner trick - something like 1/6 with a 6 million player option/3 million buyout. They'd be really up against the limit at the point, but should be able to stay under from there without a problem. There's not really anything else to spend the money on unless we're going to dream on big trades.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 13:14:56 GMT -5
I was never very interested in bringing Iglesias back, but with Mondesi in the mix I think he'd make sense as a stopgap until Mondesi and later (hopefully) Story are healthy. And he'd fit comfortably under the CBT. I'd prefer a trade that brought back something a little better, but Iglesias seems like an adequate plan B. Andrus? I'm just not seeing the fit there. Even if they could squeeze him under the CBT what would you even be upgrading? I don't think he'll sign just to be a stopgap, and I don't think he's better than any of Arroyo, Mondesi, or Duvall, and while he'd represent a moderate defensive upgrade, that's only the case when neither Story nor Mondesi are healthy, and he'd be an offensive downgrade as well when he's in the lineup (pushing one of Kiké/Duvall/Verdugo/Arroyo to the bench). I don't see him offering value anywhere near $8-10 million or whatever he'd cost. I think Andrus has a much higher floor than any of their current middle infield options, which is incredibly valuable on a team that has a lot of options with upside but come with significant injury (Arroyo, Mondesi, Story) and performance (Hernandez, especially on defense, where position switches shouldn't be taken for granted) questions. Andrus has had a track record of staying on the field and his defense means that he'll add a ton of value even if he doesn't hit. He also projects to just be better than Arroyo and Duvall (and is close enough to Hernandez and Verdugo that it's at least a question). The projections generally have Andrus as a ~2 win player, and if you can get that for $8-10M on a one year deal at a position of need, it's a slam dunk. I'm sure he'd like a multi-year deal or a guaranteed starting spot or just more money, but at a certain point he's either going to have to take what he can get or start missing games.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 13:23:17 GMT -5
By way of comparison of the projections that were easy for me to look up:
| Steamer wRC+ | BAT X wRC+ | Steamer WAR/600 | BAT X WAR/600 | Andrus | 91 | 90 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Duvall | 88 | 98 | 0.7 | 1.7 | Mondesi | 83 | 67 | 1.7 | 0.8 | Arroyo | 95 | 102 | 1.6 | 2.1 | Hernandez | 97 | 100 | 1.8 | 2.5 | Verdugo | 113 | 107 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 31, 2023 13:38:40 GMT -5
By way of comparison of the projections that were easy for me to look up:
| Steamer wRC+ | BAT X wRC+ | Steamer WAR/600 | BAT X WAR/600 | Andrus | 91 | 90 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Duvall | 88 | 98 | 0.7 | 1.7 | Mondesi | 83 | 67 | 1.7 | 0.8 | Arroyo | 95 | 102 | 1.6 | 2.1 | Hernandez | 97 | 100 | 1.8 | 2.5 | Verdugo | 113 | 107 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
This is with Duvall getting negative defensive adjustments and seemingly assuming he plays corner OF for the sake of the positional adjustment. I'm not sure where the negative defensive projection comes from and he's probably playing mostly center for the Red Sox. I'm also finding the offensive projections for Andrus a bit higher than my guess and Duvall / Mondesi's a bit lower, but to each their own there, none of them are unreasonable certainly.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 13:48:26 GMT -5
I was never very interested in bringing Iglesias back, but with Mondesi in the mix I think he'd make sense as a stopgap until Mondesi and later (hopefully) Story are healthy. And he'd fit comfortably under the CBT. I'd prefer a trade that brought back something a little better, but Iglesias seems like an adequate plan B. Andrus? I'm just not seeing the fit there. Even if they could squeeze him under the CBT what would you even be upgrading? I don't think he'll sign just to be a stopgap, and I don't think he's better than any of Arroyo, Mondesi, or Duvall, and while he'd represent a moderate defensive upgrade, that's only the case when neither Story nor Mondesi are healthy, and he'd be an offensive downgrade as well when he's in the lineup (pushing one of Kiké/Duvall/Verdugo/Arroyo to the bench). I don't see him offering value anywhere near $8-10 million or whatever he'd cost. I think Andrus has a much higher floor than any of their current middle infield options, which is incredibly valuable on a team that has a lot of options with upside but come with significant injury (Arroyo, Mondesi, Story) and performance (Hernandez, especially on defense, where position switches shouldn't be taken for granted) questions. Andrus has had a track record of staying on the field and his defense means that he'll add a ton of value even if he doesn't hit. He also projects to just be better than Arroyo and Duvall (and is close enough to Hernandez and Verdugo that it's at least a question). The projections generally have Andrus as a ~2 win player, and if you can get that for $8-10M on a one year deal at a position of need, it's a slam dunk. I'm sure he'd like a multi-year deal or a guaranteed starting spot or just more money, but at a certain point he's either going to have to take what he can get or start missing games. Andrus has an 82 wRC+ since 2018 - pretty big sample - and 7.9 fWAR in 2305 PAs. So 1.7 WAR/500 PAs. And he is now 34 so not exactly likely to improve on that.
In those same years Duvall has a 94 wRC+ and 5.9 WAR in 1636 PAs. So 1.8 WAR/500 PAs. Same age as Andrus.
Arroyo has a 101 wRC+ since 2019. He has just 1.2 WAR in 592 PAs, but that is very deceiving because I think he probably lost a full win with his terrible defense in RF last year. As an average-hitting solid defensive secod baseman he's easily a 2 WAR player if healthy. Also just turned 27 with a strong prospect pedigree, so there is some breakout potential there.
So I question the projections that have Andrus as better than Arroyo and Duvall. Indeed, ZiPS projects Andrus for an 80 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR in 529 PAs and Arroyo for a 98 OPS+ and 1.0 WAR in 298 PAs. ZiPS sees Arroyo as clearly better and that's the projection system I trust the most. (Annoyingly Szymborski left Duvall off his projections but I'll bet he has him being worth more than 0.9 WAR.)
And you say if you can get a 2 win player at a position of need it's a slam dunk for $8-10 million, but when they already have a mishmash of 2 win players to fill that spot (Arroyo, Mondesi, Kiké, Duvall, Verdugo) then it's not actually an upgrade at all unless two or more of them are injured at a given time. If you take ZiPS at face value it's actually a downgrade. Unless of course he could be signed as a bench player for cheap, in which case by all means, go ahead and do that.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 13:53:32 GMT -5
By way of comparison of the projections that were easy for me to look up:
| Steamer wRC+ | BAT X wRC+ | Steamer WAR/600 | BAT X WAR/600 | Andrus | 91 | 90 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Duvall | 88 | 98 | 0.7 | 1.7 | Mondesi | 83 | 67 | 1.7 | 0.8 | Arroyo | 95 | 102 | 1.6 | 2.1 | Hernandez | 97 | 100 | 1.8 | 2.5 | Verdugo | 113 | 107 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
I addressed the projections in my comment above this one - the best one (ZIPS) is also the lowest on Andrus. But also, do you really buy the ~90 wRC+ projection for Andrus? He's at 86 for his career, 82 since 2018, and is 34 years old. He had a 105 last season, but his xwOBA was actually at the low end of his career norms.
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