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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 14:08:17 GMT -5
I guess you can quibble with the projections if you'd like (I have no particular desire to quibble further except to point out that it is bad analysis to (1) give 2018/2019 the same weight as 2022 and (2) ignore 2017 and earlier). But, at worst, Andrus is comparable to (in the same tier as) their existing options on a per plate appearance basis, and then you consider that (1) Andrus has a much more robust history of staying on the field than any of those guys, (2) there is no real playing time logjam once you take into account that Mondesi will be injured to start the season and they really need at least 10 regulars to cover 9 starting spots given the inevitabilities of injuries and days off and (3) I'm not sure there is a more efficient way to spend that money.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 14:24:14 GMT -5
I guess you can quibble with the projections if you'd like (I have no particular desire to quibble further except to point out that it is bad analysis to (1) give 2018/2019 the same weight as 2022 and (2) ignore 2017 and earlier). But, at worst, Andrus is comparable to (in the same tier as) their existing options on a per plate appearance basis, and then you consider that (1) Andrus has a much more robust history of staying on the field than any of those guys, (2) there is no real playing time logjam once you take into account that Mondesi will be injured to start the season and they really need at least 10 regulars to cover 9 starting spots given the inevitabilities of injuries and days off and (3) I'm not sure there is a more efficient way to spend that money. Just for the record, choosing 2018 as a start date wasn't a cherry-pick; it was just a quick-and-dirty "how have they been in a large recent sample" heuristic. It actually makes Arroyo and Duvall look worse than other possible date ranges. (The only one that favors Andrus is if you look solely at 2022, but I'm sure we both agree that's not the best approach.)
I will say that if they can sign Andrus while staying under the CBT and Andrus is willing to take on a more flexible role than starting SS, then sure, go ahead and do that. But if they lock themselves into Andrus as the starting SS I think they're actually making the team worse - probably as soon as Mondesi comes back, and certainly by the time Story comes back (if n' when that happens).
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 19:11:52 GMT -5
Been a lot of discussion about Verdugo's potentially poor defense in right, thought this article was an interesting look: beyondthemonster.substack.com/p/can-the-red-sox-rely-on-alex-verdugo?utm_source=direct&r=g1ani&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webSome highlights of note: - The Green Monster cost him a few plays with very high catch probability per OAA (my guess is this happens to most Red Sox left fielders when you look at defensive metrics) - Verdugo's stated preference is to play one position for the whole/majority of the year, and he personally seems to prefer right to left at Fenway - His brother said he played the first two months of 2022 with a broken toe (which I at least didn't know) - His "burst" did decline from 2020-2022, something to watch out for is if that keeps getting worse
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2023 12:05:56 GMT -5
Is the team not done? This guy at SI said definitively (on Feb. 8th) that they will add another veteran: On the other hand he also did that thing of saying "cannot be understated" when he meant "overstated" so maybe he's just not a careful writer.
Chad Jennings also says they "remain in the market for another infielder."
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 13, 2023 12:17:28 GMT -5
Is the team not done? This guy at SI said definitively (on Feb. 8th) that they will add another veteran: On the other hand he also did that thing of saying "cannot be understated" when he meant "overstated" so maybe he's just not a careful writer.
Chad Jennings also says they "remain in the market for another infielder." Wouldn't be at all surprised if they sign Iglesias or Solano the moment Story goes to the 60 day.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 13, 2023 12:19:54 GMT -5
The last time I saw Chaim speak publicly on some podcast I came away thinking they were done but that he's always open to a trade if the other guy is gonna be an idiot
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Post by geostorm on Feb 13, 2023 13:08:48 GMT -5
if the Kiki quotes are accurate...
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 13, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5
I don’t really care much about the comments about last year’s chemistry personally. It doesn’t how much of a can-do attitude you have. The pitching injuries they sustained with that roster were simply insurmountable especially in this strong of a division.
The only thing that really bothered me was how deep into their own heads they were during their offensive struggles in April-mid May. It took a meteoric week from Story to remind the entire roster it was possible to score runs. That was pretty weak, but they overcame it in a big way and were firmly in the thick of things until the pitching injuries hit.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2023 13:41:43 GMT -5
I don’t really care much about the comments about last year’s chemistry personally. It doesn’t how much of a can-do attitude you have. The pitching injuries they sustained with that roster were simply insurmountable especially in this strong of a division. The only thing that really bothered me was how deep into their own heads they were during their offensive struggles in April-mid May. It took a meteoric week from Story to remind the entire roster it was possible to score runs. That was pretty weak, but they overcame it in a big way and were firmly in the thick of things until the pitching injuries hit. I asked ChatGPT to make a joke about how much the Red Sox were hacking at pitches last year, and after a few tries it came up with: "The Red Sox were hacking at pitches like they were trying to find the Wi-Fi password of the ball." Not terrible, AI!
Anyway, yeah, I am very much looking forward to some more patient at bats this season, from the likes of Casas, Yoshida, and Turner.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2023 15:36:29 GMT -5
I don’t really care much about the comments about last year’s chemistry personally. It doesn’t how much of a can-do attitude you have. The pitching injuries they sustained with that roster were simply insurmountable especially in this strong of a division. The only thing that really bothered me was how deep into their own heads they were during their offensive struggles in April-mid May. It took a meteoric week from Story to remind the entire roster it was possible to score runs. That was pretty weak, but they overcame it in a big way and were firmly in the thick of things until the pitching injuries hit. I'm fine with it as long as we've heard the last of him on the topic. I think there's a limit to how much someone who hit .222/.291/.338/.629 can say about a team's W-L record. That's a "lead by example" slash line.
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Post by seamus on Feb 13, 2023 16:12:34 GMT -5
Whenever someone makes a public complaint about clubhouse chemistry, it's worthwhile to ask why they're saying something now. In Hernandez's case, it seems pretty clear that the important part of the statement is that he expects the Sox to make the playoffs -- he's just trying to motivate guys, and given the amount of turnover in the clubhouse, trying to set up a "that was then, this is now" sort of divide makes sense.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 13, 2023 20:56:52 GMT -5
I don’t really care much about the comments about last year’s chemistry personally. It doesn’t how much of a can-do attitude you have. The pitching injuries they sustained with that roster were simply insurmountable especially in this strong of a division. The only thing that really bothered me was how deep into their own heads they were during their offensive struggles in April-mid May. It took a meteoric week from Story to remind the entire roster it was possible to score runs. That was pretty weak, but they overcame it in a big way and were firmly in the thick of things until the pitching injuries hit. I asked ChatGPT to make a joke about how much the Red Sox were hacking at pitches last year, and after a few tries it came up with: "The Red Sox were hacking at pitches like they were trying to find the Wi-Fi password of the ball." Not terrible, AI!
Anyway, yeah, I am very much looking forward to some more patient at bats this season, from the likes of Casas, Yoshida, and Turner.
Since no one's brought it up, I'll mention that against left-handed pitching Refsnyder has an IsoD of 100 points. Also Turner is at almost 80 for his career. We can hope this is like an infection that works its way through the lineup.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 13, 2023 22:53:00 GMT -5
Is the team not done? This guy at SI said definitively (on Feb. 8th) that they will add another veteran: On the other hand he also did that thing of saying "cannot be understated" when he meant "overstated" so maybe he's just not a careful writer.
Chad Jennings also says they "remain in the market for another infielder." Wouldn't be at all surprised if they sign Iglesias or Solano the moment Story goes to the 60 day. They're creeping up on the CBT but I still think it's more likely to be Smith. The bullpen is improved but hardly perfect and Kelly and Mills both have options. Also, isn't J-Rod questionable to start the season with the team?
And it cannot be understated enough how much Iglesias has left in the tank...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 14, 2023 0:30:38 GMT -5
I'm hoping they hold some CBT bucks for in-season moves.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 14, 2023 1:09:28 GMT -5
Wouldn't be at all surprised if they sign Iglesias or Solano the moment Story goes to the 60 day. They're creeping up on the CBT but I still think it's more likely to be Smith. The bullpen is improved but hardly perfect and Kelly and Mills both have options. Also, isn't J-Rod questionable to start the season with the team?
And it cannot be understated enough how much Iglesias has left in the tank...
As the roster stands neither Mills nor Kelly would make the team out of spring training without either someone getting hurt or Bello starting in AAA. Someone probably won’t be ready to start the season, but even still to bring in another reliever would require them to cut somebody if everyone is eventually healthy. I would have thought they might look for a Brasier upgrade but they seem pretty committed to him. Maybe if they can get Smith on the super cheap, but I’d rather go for more middle infield depth.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 15, 2023 0:00:03 GMT -5
Behind ESPN+ - an opinion/grading on every teams off-season to date (understanding there's still a bit of off season, yet ) www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35630053/2022-2023-mlb-offseason-grades-all-30-teamsAdditions: OF Masataka Yoshida, RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Chris Martin, RHP Kenley Jansen, DH Justin Turner, SS Adalberto Mondesi, OF Adam Duvall Departures: SS Xander Bogaerts, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, DH J.D. Martinez, LHP Rich Hill, RHP Michael Wacha, OF Tommy Pham Who's No. 1 as season approaches? With the top free agents signed, here's where our experts think each team stands midway through the offseason. Midwinter power rankings » This might sound a little shocking, but it's possible Red Sox fans are overreacting. No executive has faced the wrath of their fan base this offseason more than Chaim Bloom. It's almost like Red Sox Nation has forgotten the team was in the American League Championship Series way back in ... 2021. I understand the frustration, primarily on letting Bogaerts walk, but the Red Sox did end up extending Rafael Devers and he's the better long-term play given their age difference. Without the Devers extension, this grade would have been lower, mostly because the rotation wasn't really addressed. Yoshida comes over from Japan on a $90 million deal, with the Red Sox betting he can sustain the high OBPs he posted in Japan (.449 in 2022 with 82 walks and 42 strikeouts). Many insiders think the Red Sox overpaid, but if he's getting on base 40% of the time, that will work, although his lack of speed and defense caps his ceiling. I'm also a little wary of Jansen, given the new pitch clock rules (he's been one of the slowest workers in the majors). Grade: C 10 TEAMS lower, including 3 Fs - Reds ChiSox Rockies - & Mets w sole A w/ NYY & PHI A-
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 15, 2023 9:09:53 GMT -5
I think that’s a fair analysis
I will say this though- I think the rotation has been addressed. Moving Whitlock there, having Bello for the full year, having Sale healthy, and adding Kluber has me more optimistic about the rotation than I was last season
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 15, 2023 10:07:28 GMT -5
I think that’s a fair analysis I will say this though- I think the rotation has been addressed. Moving Whitlock there, having Bello for the full year, having Sale healthy, and adding Kluber has me more optimistic about the rotation than I was last season I agree that it is both a fair assessment of the offseason and that I also believe the rotation has been addressed adequately. They have enough pieces with plenty of upside that can start between the main 5-6 guys coming into camp on the ML roster as well as enough depth/emergency starters. Sure we could say contracts aside I'd have loved to have added Verlander, De Grom or Rodon but that wasn't going to happen and at this point they don't need any 4th/5th starter types ala Wacha.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2023 10:38:06 GMT -5
Behind ESPN+ - an opinion/grading on every teams off-season to date (understanding there's still a bit of off season, yet ) www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35630053/2022-2023-mlb-offseason-grades-all-30-teamsAdditions: OF Masataka Yoshida, RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Chris Martin, RHP Kenley Jansen, DH Justin Turner, SS Adalberto Mondesi, OF Adam Duvall Departures: SS Xander Bogaerts, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, DH J.D. Martinez, LHP Rich Hill, RHP Michael Wacha, OF Tommy Pham Who's No. 1 as season approaches? With the top free agents signed, here's where our experts think each team stands midway through the offseason. Midwinter power rankings » This might sound a little shocking, but it's possible Red Sox fans are overreacting. No executive has faced the wrath of their fan base this offseason more than Chaim Bloom. It's almost like Red Sox Nation has forgotten the team was in the American League Championship Series way back in ... 2021. I understand the frustration, primarily on letting Bogaerts walk, but the Red Sox did end up extending Rafael Devers and he's the better long-term play given their age difference. Without the Devers extension, this grade would have been lower, mostly because the rotation wasn't really addressed. Yoshida comes over from Japan on a $90 million deal, with the Red Sox betting he can sustain the high OBPs he posted in Japan (.449 in 2022 with 82 walks and 42 strikeouts). Many insiders think the Red Sox overpaid, but if he's getting on base 40% of the time, that will work, although his lack of speed and defense caps his ceiling. I'm also a little wary of Jansen, given the new pitch clock rules (he's been one of the slowest workers in the majors). Grade: C 10 TEAMS lower, including 3 Fs - Reds ChiSox Rockies - & Mets w sole A w/ NYY & PHI A- How the heck do the Phillies get an A-? Trea Turner was a nice addition for them but they hardly got him at a discount and that contract is ticketed for dead money city. Beyond that they signed Taijuan Walker (meh), Kimbrel (bleh), Harrison (eh), and Strahm (heh).
By fangraphs' projected WAR the Phillies lost 7.5 and gained 7.4.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 15, 2023 10:46:39 GMT -5
I think Jansen is a prime candidate for a boom-or-bust season. Either the pitch clock is going to screw him up, or he may find out he was overthinking it all along .....
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 15, 2023 10:55:27 GMT -5
I think Jansen is a prime candidate for a boom-or-bust season. Either the pitch clock is going to screw him up, or he may find out he was overthinking it all along ..... He’s also going to be facing batters who have seen much less of him, which could work to his advantage.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 15, 2023 10:56:00 GMT -5
I think Jansen is a prime candidate for a boom-or-bust season. Either the pitch clock is going to screw him up, or he may find out he was overthinking it all along ..... that's literally every closer though... see Kimbrel, and Koji, who was third on the pecking order for closer (in 2013)
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 15, 2023 11:39:26 GMT -5
How the heck do the Phillies get an A-? Trea Turner was a nice addition for them but they hardly got him at a discount and that contract is ticketed for dead money city. Beyond that they signed Taijuan Walker (meh), Kimbrel (bleh), Harrison (eh), and Strahm (heh).
By fangraphs' projected WAR the Phillies lost 7.5 and gained 7.4.
Offseason grades seem to just be taking the temperature of the local media. Baltimore is pretty much punting away a prime contending season by not spending any money but the team has good vibes because of all the young talent so nobody gives them a bad grade.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2023 11:44:51 GMT -5
How the heck do the Phillies get an A-? Trea Turner was a nice addition for them but they hardly got him at a discount and that contract is ticketed for dead money city. Beyond that they signed Taijuan Walker (meh), Kimbrel (bleh), Harrison (eh), and Strahm (heh).
By fangraphs' projected WAR the Phillies lost 7.5 and gained 7.4.
Offseason grades seem to just be taking the temperature of the local media. Baltimore is pretty much punting away a prime contending season by not spending any money but the team has good vibes because of all the young talent so nobody gives them a bad grade. Haha, did they not give the Orioles a bad grade? I just assumed they would've gotten a D or something.
And are the Baltimore media not in a foul mood? Frankly they should be going full Shaughnessy on that team's ownership right now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 15, 2023 12:47:57 GMT -5
Offseason grades seem to just be taking the temperature of the local media. Baltimore is pretty much punting away a prime contending season by not spending any money but the team has good vibes because of all the young talent so nobody gives them a bad grade. Haha, did they not give the Orioles a bad grade? I just assumed they would've gotten a D or something. And are the Baltimore media not in a foul mood? Frankly they should be going full Shaughnessy on that team's ownership right now.
I would have to imagine that all Baltimore media/fans gave up on the ownership a long time ago. Still throwing a tantrum about the Nationals moving into their greater market area.
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