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Is There a New Core, or...
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2022 10:21:03 GMT -5
Within a two-to-three-year period, the Sox rolled out Betts, Benintendi, Bradley Jr., Bogaerts, ERod, Vazquez and Devers. All but Benintendi, Devers and Rodriguez (trade) were Theo acquisitions. All but Devers are now gone. This core helped lead the team to 3 Division titles and a World Series Championship.
I am trying to look for such players now in our system dispassionately - so I'm looking at our guys as if I was a fan of Toronto or Houston (because I cannot even imagine being a fan of that team in the Bronx). Granted, any of us - myself included - can talk ourselves into thinking that selected A-Ball (or even pre-A Ball) guys will be average or better pros. But all we also know the data say the vast number of these guys (more than 85%) never make it.
That said, I'm looking at what's there and here's what I'm seeing as legitimate potential MLB average or better talent. I'm also relying heavily on this site's projections/scouting. So here's what I see.
Bello - could be anything from a 4 to a 2.
Casas - looks like the floor average MLB first baseman with a ceiling of occasional all star.
Rafaela - floor of a defense-first super utility guy to an above-average MLB CF. Arrival late 2023 or 2024.
Mayer - Here's where it gets tricky. He projects very well, but he's not seen advanced pitching. Still, if he becomes what he looks like, he will be an above-average MLB SS to an All Star. Arrival 2025.
Mata - #4-5 starter or late-inning reliever. Arrival 2023 for the latter, 2024 for the former.
Not yet making the cut:
Yorke - bat-only prospect who took a step back, albeit he had injury issues.
Bleis - Sure, looks great in the Florida Coast league, but so far away - like 2027/2028 arrival date - that who knows.
So, taken together, this is all OK with some really interesting rising players, but it's nowhere near what they had before. Also, so many of the guys who look like they might be something are way down in A-Ball or below. Cherington's drafts were, overall, not good. Bloom's drafts are TBA, but his trade acquisitions for prospects have been decidedly sub-optimal so far.
OK, that's what I see. What do you folks see?
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Post by xdmo on Dec 11, 2022 10:23:52 GMT -5
I think Walter will enter that mix, but yeah there's not much there in the upper mix of AAA waiting to help the big league team.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2022 11:15:55 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I think Kavadas needs to be on the radar for a future DH too. He might not make enough contact, but if he does, this guy will rake. His BB% is always going to be stellar, and his xwOBA on contact is phenomenal too. Obviously, until we get a healthy sample in the upper minors you can’t get carried away, and he’s never going to give you defensive value so I understand he doesn’t have great prospect status, but he has a lot of potential in that bat.
You also need to watch Valdez. Suspect defense at 2B especially post-shift, but no glaring offensive holes despite nothing being plus. Too bad we don’t play at Yankee Stadium, the guy would be perfect for that. But whether it’s 2B or utility, he might hit enough to stick.
To a much lesser extent, I’d say that Abreu and Binelas have hope too. Two more guys that are really patient, have pop, but ultimately might not make enough contact. But if they can figure that admittedly major issue out, they’d be looking really good in a hurry.
None of these guys are the “core,” but all of them have some hope IMO. There’s plenty of studs in the MLB that didn’t become can’t miss prospects until the last second (or at all). This farm isn’t crazy top heavy but there are a lot of players who could make it, especially compared to 4 years ago.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2022 11:25:13 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I think Kavadas needs to be on the radar for a future DH too. He might not make enough contact, but if he does, this guy will rake. His BB% is always going to be stellar, and his xwOBA on contact is phenomenal too. Obviously, until we get a healthy sample in the upper minors you can’t get carried away, and he’s never going to give you defensive value so I understand he doesn’t have great prospect status, but he has a lot of potential in that bat. I like this guy, but like so many of our other guys, he didn't pass the "dispassionate look from the outside" test of a legit prospect (yet). He's shown he knows the difference between a ball and a strike in the lower minors. But he'll have to make a big adjustment in AA/AAA when he encounters guys who have heat and who can throw breaking balls inside within the zone. Also, the projections have him as an org guy/up-and-down bench player. |
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Post by orion09 on Dec 11, 2022 12:15:31 GMT -5
Within a two-to-three-year period, the Sox rolled out Betts, Benintendi, Bradley Jr., Bogaerts, ERod, Vazquez and Devers. All but Benintendi, Devers and Rodriguez (trade) were Theo acquisitions. All but Devers are now gone. This core helped lead the team to 3 Division titles and a World Series Championship. Really, this makes me think - the smartest thing this ownership group did is hire Theo in the window of opportunity before analytics became widespread. He’s the reason we have 4 championships to celebrate. He’s responsible for essentially the whole core of the 2013 and 2018 teams, and the important acquisitions on the 2004 and 2007 teams (with credit to Dan Duquette for about half the core on those teams). Smart big market teams no longer have an easy edge, either in scooping up undervalued players or in draft compensation. Every team is hip to advanced stats, the player marketplace is more or less efficient, and the draft has been weighted heavily to favor small market teams. There are still edges to be found, but it’s a lot harder and requires some combination of extreme creativity, outstanding talent evaluation, and spending money (see Astros, Rays, Dodgers). It’s not as simple as picking high OBP guys off the garbage heap anymore. |
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Post by xdmo on Dec 11, 2022 12:22:23 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I think Kavadas needs to be on the radar for a future DH too. He might not make enough contact, but if he does, this guy will rake. His BB% is always going to be stellar, and his xwOBA on contact is phenomenal too. Obviously, until we get a healthy sample in the upper minors you can’t get carried away, and he’s never going to give you defensive value so I understand he doesn’t have great prospect status, but he has a lot of potential in that bat. This isn't a 2023 problem, but the problem is the Sox signed Yoshida now. Yoshida is probably going to profile as a full-time DH soon. So if Kavadas keeps hitting into AAA at a great rate, then you're essentially picking between Casas and Kavadas at that point. I still think trading Casas for a young legit arm could be a excellent way to go. |
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Post by orion09 on Dec 11, 2022 12:25:23 GMT -5
To answer your actual question, your evaluation lines up pretty well with what I’m seeing. I didn’t see Whitlock on your list, and there’s also a good chance we get contributions from Walter, and also the inevitable one or two new guys who catch helium and rise up, but otherwise your list seems accurate to me.
If everyone on your list pops, then yes, that’s a strong core. If only half reach their 50th percentile projections, then no, that’s not going be enough.
Part of the problem is that the arrival times are somewhat diffuse. By the time Bleis is ready, Casas and Bello will be about to hit free agency. And of course, it’s unlikely that all three of Yorke, Mayer, and Bleis contribute in a major way.
So, IMO, the success of this core depends on a) having a high hit rate on the players you named, and, just as importantly, b) signing the early arrivals to extensions, so that we’ve got a critical mass by the time Bleis arrives
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 11, 2022 12:34:22 GMT -5
I've seen all of the players mentioned except Yorke and Bello. My personal favorite is Rafaela. His critiques have been all over the place because of his aggressiveness at the plate. The strides he has made year after year tells you a lot about his intellect and work ethic. Speed, great D in center, and YES power should be exciting everyone. I would absolutely hate seeing him part of a trade. I see him as part of our core moving forward strongly.
The 3 young Latin pitchers should intrigue everyone on here (Perales, Wikelmen, and Elmer). One or two of them could be keepers.
I know Whitlock has 2-years of service, but he should also be counted as our future core.
Hopefully we don't lose any of our draft capital going forward by signing anyone with a qualifying offer. This draft, where we are situated, should add to the core nicely.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2022 12:38:03 GMT -5
My only real thought here is that if you asked this question a year ago, Yorke would *obviously* be a part of the next "core," and Rafaela would not have entered the discussion. 18 months ago Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran looked like core pieces, while Bello wasn't in the picture at all and Mayer wasn't even in the system. Beyond Bello, Casas, and Whitlock - who have already shown promise at the major league level - I think there's just no real way to know what things will look like in a year, let alone 2 or 3 years down the road. That's the logic of building prospect depth - giving yourself as many chances to hit on the roulette spin as you can.
ADD: Something I just noticed on the Rankings History: Casas was the system's top prospect for 9 consecutive rankings, which is far and away the record for this site.
Casas - 9 Bogaerts - 5
Moncada - 4 Kelly - 4 Anderson - 3 Buchholz - 3
Chavis - 3 Hanley - 3
Middlebrooks - 3 Kalish - 2 Ellsbury - 2 Papelbon -2
Groome - 2 Swihart - 2
Nothing particularly meaningful (and it's aided by the stasis of 2020), just a bit of trivia.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2022 12:58:40 GMT -5
Within a two-to-three-year period, the Sox rolled out Betts, Benintendi, Bradley Jr., Bogaerts, ERod, Vazquez and Devers. All but Benintendi, Devers and Rodriguez (trade) were Theo acquisitions. All but Devers are now gone. This core helped lead the team to 3 Division titles and a World Series Championship. Really, this makes me think - the smartest thing this ownership group did is hire Theo in the window of opportunity before analytics became widespread. He’s the reason we have 4 championships to celebrate. He’s responsible for essentially the whole core of the 2013 and 2018 teams, and the important acquisitions on the 2004 and 2007 teams (with credit to Dan Duquette for about half the core on those teams). Smart big market teams no longer have an easy edge, either in scooping up undervalued players or in draft compensation. Every team is hip to advanced stats, the player marketplace is more or less efficient, and the draft has been weighted heavily to favor small market teams. There are still edges to be found, but it’s a lot harder and requires some combination of extreme creativity, outstanding talent evaluation, and spending money (see Astros, Rays, Dodgers). It’s not as simple as picking high OBP guys off the garbage heap anymore. True, but the high-revenue teams have three big potential advantages over the lower-revenue/cheap billionaire teams that work the edges but also far exceed the capabilities of 60-75% of the other teams: 1) They can put much more resources - and at relatively low costs - into in-person and video scouting of amateurs, analytics and technology to find the best available talent. "Tank and bank" doesn't have to be the only way to build prospect depth. The Dodgers, and to a degree Houston and a few other teams, have embraced this while having consistently late-in-the-round draft picks. 2) They can also hire more evaluators of MLB and near MLB talent. I've read that many teams are going to all-video evalutions. This seems like tying one hand behind your back to save a few dollars. Maybe necessary in Tampa or Pittsburgh, but not for high revenue teams. Again, relatively low cost, but a few teams are particularly good at identifying undervalued MLB/MLB-ready talent for low return. 3) The revenue itself, which is these teams greatest advange. High-revenue teams can afford to buy top-shelf free agents and still stock the farm along the way. These teams can also afford to miss on a free agent or two. High risk = high reward. Finally, they can afford to take on a bad contract in exchange for some top-ranked prospect or prospects. Plus, if you comprehensively implement #2, you end up with fewer Hanley Ramirez/Pablo Sandoval-type self-inflicted errors. |
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Post by orion09 on Dec 11, 2022 13:09:40 GMT -5
Really, this makes me think - the smartest thing this ownership group did is hire Theo in the window of opportunity before analytics became widespread. He’s the reason we have 4 championships to celebrate. He’s responsible for essentially the whole core of the 2013 and 2018 teams, and the important acquisitions on the 2004 and 2007 teams (with credit to Dan Duquette for about half the core on those teams). Smart big market teams no longer have an easy edge, either in scooping up undervalued players or in draft compensation. Every team is hip to advanced stats, the player marketplace is more or less efficient, and the draft has been weighted heavily to favor small market teams. There are still edges to be found, but it’s a lot harder and requires some combination of extreme creativity, outstanding talent evaluation, and spending money (see Astros, Rays, Dodgers). It’s not as simple as picking high OBP guys off the garbage heap anymore. True, but the high-revenue teams have three big potential advantages over the lower-revenue/cheap billionaire teams that work the edges but also far exceed the capabilities of 60-75% of the other teams: 1) They can put much more resources - and at relatively low costs - into in-person and video scouting of amateurs, analytics and technology to find the best available talent. "Tank and bank" doesn't have to be the only way to build prospect depth. The Dodgers, and to a degree Houston and a few other teams, have embraced this while having consistently late-in-the-round draft picks. 2) They can also hire more evaluators of MLB and near MLB talent. I've read that many teams are going to all-video evalutions. This seems like tying one hand behind your back to save a few dollars. Maybe necessary in Tampa or Pittsburgh, but not for high revenue teams. Again, relatively low cost, but a few teams are particularly good at identifying undervalued MLB/MLB-ready talent for low return. 3) The revenue itself, which is these teams greatest advange. High-revenue teams can afford to buy top-shelf free agents and still stock the farm along the way. These teams can also afford to miss on a free agent or two. High risk = high reward. Finally, they can afford to take on a bad contract in exchange for some top-ranked prospect or prospects. Plus, if you comprehensively implement #2, you end up with fewer Hanley Ramirez/Pablo Sandoval-type self-inflicted errors. Totally agree with the importance of your first and second points. I don’t know how much money the Sox are throwing at talent evaluation relative to their capabilities, but I suspect good talent evaluation isn’t only about throwing money at the problem - it requires a strong team culture as well as knowing how to find the right people to hire. The Sox’ near-MLB talent evaluation under Bloom has been pretty middling so far, so IMO whatever they’re doing hasn’t shown success commensurate with whatever big market advantage they *should* have in that department |
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Post by orion09 on Dec 11, 2022 13:15:57 GMT -5
BTW - total anecdote - but I had a conversation at a bar with someone a few months ago who’s worked at Fenway since the early Theo days. Business operations, IIRC, not baseball ops. When I asked how she enjoyed working for the Sox, she intimated in pretty dark terms that the culture and experience were not what they were 10 years ago. Take that with whatever size grain of salt you deem appropriate
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2022 13:20:03 GMT -5
My only real thought here is that if you asked this question a year ago, Yorke would *obviously* be a part of the next "core," and Rafaela would not have entered the discussion. 18 months ago Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran looked like core pieces, while Bello wasn't in the picture at all and Mayer wasn't even in the system. Beyond Bello, Casas, and Whitlock - who have already shown promise at the major league level - I think there's just no real way to know what things will look like in a year, let alone 2 or 3 years down the road. That's the logic of building prospect depth - giving yourself as many chances to hit on the roulette spin as you can. ADD: Something I just noticed on the Rankings History: Casas was the system's top prospect for 9 consecutive rankings, which is far and away the record for this site. Casas - 9 Bogaerts - 5
Moncada - 4 Kelly - 4 Anderson - 3 Buchholz - 3
Chavis - 3 Hanley - 3
Middlebrooks - 3 Kalish - 2 Ellsbury - 2 Papelbon -2
Groome - 2 Swihart - 2 Nothing particularly meaningful (and it's aided by the stasis of 2020), just a bit of trivia.
This supports your point of acquiring more prospects to see which hit in part. But it also seems like there may be an issue with talent evaluation by the Red Sox organization. Look at some of the top prospects named: Chavis (has never had even a 1.0 fWAR season) Anderson Duran Downs Kalish Swihart Kelly And think of a few others who were highly ranked and thought by many here to be "sure thing major leaguers" by the org and/or many people here: Owens Webster Cecchini Darwinzon "why is he still on the 40-man" Hernandez Espinoza This is why I did my best to try to remain dispassionate. I think at times, this organization drinks a little too much of their own kool-aide. I also think ranking guys who've never been to AA in the top 5 is a bit disingenuous (although I recognize the whole industry does it). Every organization over values their own prospects to some extent, but I feel like at times during the last decade, the Sox have been more guilty of this than many others. |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Dec 11, 2022 13:28:35 GMT -5
Casas has a Freddy Freeman ceiling.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2022 14:00:50 GMT -5
I have become quie critical of Bloom, but I do think he's putting together interesting possibilities in the farm system, so I want to compliment him on that.
I dont trust his ability to trade for prospects but whether its him or the guy in charge of drafting, I think the drafting has become better. During the latter half of the Cherington era it wasn't good and the international penalties hurt.
Around the diamond I see possibilities.
At 1b Casas, if healthy, should solidify 1b for years to come and if he does I hope Bloom learns how to keep guys like that. When I see Casas I'm reminded of Kent Hrbek, who was a helluva player.
The Sox have Yorke, Romero, and Paulino as possibilities. I like their bats and Romero should be good defensively. Not hard to see him and Mayer, who I think will because star, form a dynamic keystone combo. I believe in Yorke's bat but he might wind up in LF.
3b could be Lugo who is rapidly improving or Paulino could wind up there.
I like Hickeys bat but he might not be more than a Lavarnway. Brannon is an interesting prospect.
For the OF, Bleis could wind up being a superstar. Rafaela could be a young JBJ in CF. Roman Anthony is interesting, and perhaps York winds up on LF, but the outfield is still kind of thin in the system. Maybe Abreu could help in RF soon. Valdez could be useful at 2b sooner than later.
And I do like the DH power bat of Kavadas, We'll see if he stays a possibilty.
So while the top end talent doesn't stand out I think they have real possibilities to form a mid decade core around 2025.
The pitching I'm less certain on. Perales is one to watch. I don't know if Bello and Mata become at least mid rotation starters. Walter and Murphy might help. But I think pitching might still be something that they have to get from outside the organization.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 11, 2022 14:09:24 GMT -5
For me, too early to designate a true core - we may have one depending upon what happens in the rest of the offseason and what the active roster looks like - and of course how some of the key players noted in earlier posts develop. I hope - truly hope - we are developing a championship core (which of course will likely be in the near or medium term future)
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 11, 2022 14:37:36 GMT -5
Within a two-to-three-year period, the Sox rolled out Betts, Benintendi, Bradley Jr., Bogaerts, ERod, Vazquez and Devers. All but Benintendi, Devers and Rodriguez (trade) were Theo acquisitions. All but Devers are now gone. This core helped lead the team to 3 Division titles and a World Series Championship. I am trying to look for such players now in our system dispassionately - so I'm looking at our guys as if I was a fan of Toronto or Houston (because I cannot even imagine being a fan of that team in the Bronx). Granted, any of us - myself included - can talk ourselves into thinking that selected A-Ball (or even pre-A Ball) guys will be average or better pros. But all we also know the data say the vast number of these guys (more than 85%) never make it. That said, I'm looking at what's there and here's what I'm seeing as legitimate potential MLB average or better talent. I'm also relying heavily on this site's projections/scouting. So here's what I see. Bello - could be anything from a 4 to a 2. Casas - looks like the floor average MLB first baseman with a ceiling of occasional all star. Rafaela - floor of a defense-first super utility guy to an above-average MLB CF. Arrival late 2023 or 2024. Mayer - Here's where it gets tricky. He projects very well, but he's not seen advanced pitching. Still, if he becomes what he looks like, he will be an above-average MLB SS to an All Star. Arrival 2025.Mata - #4-5 starter or late-inning reliever. Arrival 2023 for the latter, 2024 for the former.Not yet making the cut: Yorke - bat-only prospect who took a step back, albeit he had injury issues. Bleis - Sure, looks great in the Florida Coast league, but so far away - like 2027/2028 arrival date - that who knows. So, taken together, this is all OK with some really interesting rising players, but it's nowhere near what they had before. Also, so many of the guys who look like they might be something are way down in A-Ball or below. Cherington's drafts were, overall, not good. Bloom's drafts are TBA, but his trade acquisitions for prospects have been decidedly sub-optimal so far. OK, that's what I see. What do you folks see? Using ZiPS as a dispassionate lens, here are some guys in the high minors who already project near-average or better for 2023. Enmanuel Valdez - ZiPS projects him to be just slightly below average an MLB average player right now (1.3 WAR), so without further development he could already basically be there, SP gives him bat-first utility guy upside (which can be an average player) Brandon Walter - Similarly, ZiPS gives him an average-ish projection for 2023 (1.2 fWAR over 82 innings with a 95 ERA-). SP gives him a mid-rotation ceiling, back of the rotation and a high floor if he's in the bullpen. Chris Murphy (1.2 WAR projection in 122 innings for 2023 from ZiPS), David Hamilton (1.0 WAR projection, but maybe will benefit from the rule changes), Connor Wong (1.2 WAR projection in 380 PAs) also worth watching using this barometer. Not a likely superstar among the group, but Bradley Jr./Vazquez/ERod upside from some of these guys. I'll throw in Duran and Hoy Park (1.2 and 1.3 WAR) too, though I personally don't buy Duran at all. And of course development will happen in ways we don't predict, but hopefully there's more to come from someone in the Romero/Anthony/Paulino/Lugo sort of tier. |
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Post by keninten on Dec 11, 2022 15:28:15 GMT -5
Casas has a Freddy Freeman ceiling. I`ve been thinking Joey Votto. |
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 11, 2022 15:39:46 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I think Kavadas needs to be on the radar for a future DH too. He might not make enough contact, but if he does, this guy will rake. His BB% is always going to be stellar, and his xwOBA on contact is phenomenal too. Obviously, until we get a healthy sample in the upper minors you can’t get carried away, and he’s never going to give you defensive value so I understand he doesn’t have great prospect status, but he has a lot of potential in that bat. This isn't a 2023 problem, but the problem is the Sox signed Yoshida now. Yoshida is probably going to profile as a full-time DH soon. So if Kavadas keeps hitting into AAA at a great rate, then you're essentially picking between Casas and Kavadas at that point. I still think trading Casas for a young legit arm could be a excellent way to go. If Manny can play LF at Fenway, Yoshida can. Only two more years left of control for Verdugo, and that's probably also how long it would take for Kavadas to make it to Boston. And that's assuming everyone stays healthy and doesn't bust. |
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 11, 2022 15:44:05 GMT -5
To answer your actual question, your evaluation lines up pretty well with what I’m seeing. I didn’t see Whitlock on your list, and there’s also a good chance we get contributions from Walter, and also the inevitable one or two new guys who catch helium and rise up, but otherwise your list seems accurate to me. If everyone on your list pops, then yes, that’s a strong core. If only half reach their 50th percentile projections, then no, that’s not going be enough. Part of the problem is that the arrival times are somewhat diffuse. By the time Bleis is ready, Casas and Bello will be about to hit free agency. And of course, it’s unlikely that all three of Yorke, Mayer, and Bleis contribute in a major way. So, IMO, the success of this core depends on a) having a high hit rate on the players you named, and, just as importantly, b) signing the early arrivals to extensions, so that we’ve got a critical mass by the time Bleis arrives This is bad in a boom and bust model, but this is just fine for a team that wants to compete every year. Rather than having all of the surplus value concentrated in a "core", you have a mix of young guys at various stages of pre-arb into arb and just keep the machine churning. Provided the density of graduates is high enough, life is good. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 11, 2022 16:03:04 GMT -5
Enmanuel Valdez - ZiPS projects him to be just slightly below average an MLB average player right now (1.3 WAR), so without further development he could already basically be there, SP gives him bat-first utility guy upside (which can be an average player) This is a bit too bullish for Valdez. ZiPS may be dispassionate, but its lens heavily regresses defensive statistics, so it thinks Valdez is an average-ish defender at 2B. The scouting reports are much less kind. Also, I'm not sure where you get the idea that a bat-first utility guy is an average player. It implies he's not good enough to be a starter. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 11, 2022 16:11:42 GMT -5
Enmanuel Valdez - ZiPS projects him to be just slightly below average an MLB average player right now (1.3 WAR), so without further development he could already basically be there, SP gives him bat-first utility guy upside (which can be an average player) This is a bit too bullish for Valdez. ZiPS may be dispassionate, but its lens heavily regresses defensive statistics, so it thinks Valdez is an average-ish defender at 2B. The scouting reports are much less kind. Also, I'm not sure where you get the idea that a bat-first utility guy is an average player. It implies he's not good enough to be a starter. Meh, Brock Holt was an average player for a couple years with basically an average bat and okay defense wherever. If Valdez hits a little better and fields a little worse I think he can have similar value. I also think that depending on roster construction someone who plays a utility role can be average even if they aren't an every day starter at one position. |
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2022 16:24:15 GMT -5
Within a two-to-three-year period, the Sox rolled out Betts, Benintendi, Bradley Jr., Bogaerts, ERod, Vazquez and Devers. All but Benintendi, Devers and Rodriguez (trade) were Theo acquisitions. All but Devers are now gone. This core helped lead the team to 3 Division titles and a World Series Championship. I am trying to look for such players now in our system dispassionately - so I'm looking at our guys as if I was a fan of Toronto or Houston (because I cannot even imagine being a fan of that team in the Bronx). Granted, any of us - myself included - can talk ourselves into thinking that selected A-Ball (or even pre-A Ball) guys will be average or better pros. But all we also know the data say the vast number of these guys (more than 85%) never make it. That said, I'm looking at what's there and here's what I'm seeing as legitimate potential MLB average or better talent. I'm also relying heavily on this site's projections/scouting. So here's what I see. Bello - could be anything from a 4 to a 2. Casas - looks like the floor average MLB first baseman with a ceiling of occasional all star. Rafaela - floor of a defense-first super utility guy to an above-average MLB CF. Arrival late 2023 or 2024. Mayer - Here's where it gets tricky. He projects very well, but he's not seen advanced pitching. Still, if he becomes what he looks like, he will be an above-average MLB SS to an All Star. Arrival 2025.Mata - #4-5 starter or late-inning reliever. Arrival 2023 for the latter, 2024 for the former.Not yet making the cut: Yorke - bat-only prospect who took a step back, albeit he had injury issues. Bleis - Sure, looks great in the Florida Coast league, but so far away - like 2027/2028 arrival date - that who knows. So, taken together, this is all OK with some really interesting rising players, but it's nowhere near what they had before. Also, so many of the guys who look like they might be something are way down in A-Ball or below. Cherington's drafts were, overall, not good. Bloom's drafts are TBA, but his trade acquisitions for prospects have been decidedly sub-optimal so far. OK, that's what I see. What do you folks see? Using ZiPS as a dispassionate lens, here are some guys in the high minors who already project near-average or better for 2023. Enmanuel Valdez - ZiPS projects him to be just slightly below average an MLB average player right now (1.3 WAR), so without further development he could already basically be there, SP gives him bat-first utility guy upside (which can be an average player) Brandon Walter - Similarly, ZiPS gives him an average-ish projection for 2023 (1.2 fWAR over 82 innings with a 95 ERA-). SP gives him a mid-rotation ceiling, back of the rotation and a high floor if he's in the bullpen. Chris Murphy (1.2 WAR projection in 122 innings for 2023 from ZiPS), David Hamilton (1.0 WAR projection, but maybe will benefit from the rule changes), Connor Wong (1.2 WAR projection in 380 PAs) also worth watching using this barometer. Not a likely superstar among the group, but Bradley Jr./Vazquez/ERod upside from some of these guys. I'll throw in Duran and Hoy Park (1.2 and 1.3 WAR) too, though I personally don't buy Duran at all. And of course development will happen in ways we don't predict, but hopefully there's more to come from someone in the Romero/Anthony/Paulino/Lugo sort of tier. I appreciate this, but none of the guys you highlighted look to be league-average or better. That was the bar. Ceilings are nice to dream on, but 1.2-1.3 ish fWAR guys are pretty easy to find. ADDED: Or even more dispassionately: None of those guys are prospects other contenders or aspiring contenders covet or drool over. That is, they aren't in the category of the core guys from 2015-2019, or Bello, Casas, Rafeala, Mayer or even, as some people have added, Whitlock (although it remains to be seen if he can truly start for a whole season and be more than a #4/5 starter when he does. The Sox seem very adept at creating #5s and less adept at finding more Jon Lester/Justin Masterson/Eduardo Rodriguez (at least his Sox years) types. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 11, 2022 16:31:06 GMT -5
Using ZiPS as a dispassionate lens, here are some guys in the high minors who already project near-average or better for 2023. Enmanuel Valdez - ZiPS projects him to be just slightly below average an MLB average player right now (1.3 WAR), so without further development he could already basically be there, SP gives him bat-first utility guy upside (which can be an average player) Brandon Walter - Similarly, ZiPS gives him an average-ish projection for 2023 (1.2 fWAR over 82 innings with a 95 ERA-). SP gives him a mid-rotation ceiling, back of the rotation and a high floor if he's in the bullpen. Chris Murphy (1.2 WAR projection in 122 innings for 2023 from ZiPS), David Hamilton (1.0 WAR projection, but maybe will benefit from the rule changes), Connor Wong (1.2 WAR projection in 380 PAs) also worth watching using this barometer. Not a likely superstar among the group, but Bradley Jr./Vazquez/ERod upside from some of these guys. I'll throw in Duran and Hoy Park (1.2 and 1.3 WAR) too, though I personally don't buy Duran at all. And of course development will happen in ways we don't predict, but hopefully there's more to come from someone in the Romero/Anthony/Paulino/Lugo sort of tier. I appreciate this, but none of the guys you highlighted look to be league-average or better. That was the bar. Ceilings are nice to dream on, but 1.2-1.3 ish fWAR guys are pretty easy to find. Well, Walter's projection for next year is already better than league average if you give him 160 innings rather than 80, so he at least already does meet that bar (by ZiPS which is of course only one way perspective). Wong and Murphy are only very slightly behind that. My other point was, if indeed this is the baseline for these guys, average is very attainable with only a small amount of development. |
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Post by orion09 on Dec 11, 2022 16:32:10 GMT -5
To answer your actual question, your evaluation lines up pretty well with what I’m seeing. I didn’t see Whitlock on your list, and there’s also a good chance we get contributions from Walter, and also the inevitable one or two new guys who catch helium and rise up, but otherwise your list seems accurate to me. If everyone on your list pops, then yes, that’s a strong core. If only half reach their 50th percentile projections, then no, that’s not going be enough. Part of the problem is that the arrival times are somewhat diffuse. By the time Bleis is ready, Casas and Bello will be about to hit free agency. And of course, it’s unlikely that all three of Yorke, Mayer, and Bleis contribute in a major way. So, IMO, the success of this core depends on a) having a high hit rate on the players you named, and, just as importantly, b) signing the early arrivals to extensions, so that we’ve got a critical mass by the time Bleis arrives This is bad in a boom and bust model, but this is just fine for a team that wants to compete every year. Rather than having all of the surplus value concentrated in a "core", you have a mix of young guys at various stages of pre-arb into arb and just keep the machine churning. Provided the density of graduates is high enough, life is good. I mean, sure, having staggered arrival times is great if you have 3-4 outstanding core players at a time. I guess my point is that I don’t see potential here for core density at any given point comparable to any of the four Red Sox champion teams, or to the Astros, Dodgers, etc. I see a core that’s good enough for perpetual 85 win mediocrity, which to me is not really an exciting or worthwhile goal. That *could* change *if* they extend a bunch of guys or if both Yorke and Rafaela turn out to be studs. YMMV |
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