nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2022 9:42:16 GMT -5
What players are you keeping an eye on this year to beat their projections and provide more to the big league club than most expect?
I’ll start with my top of mind watchlist:
1) Verdugo. This will be his age 27 year. Will we get a noticeable “prime” from him? He has the potential to hit for a very high average, but can he also get his ISO in the .150 range?
2) Casas. How good can he be in his first full season? I’d be happy if his steamer projection came true (~120 wRC+), but he’s got upside.
3) Wong. If he can be a league average hitter or better, that would be a boon long term. I think he’s a sleeper
4) Valdez. Can he hit his way to the majors this year and earn some PT? If the bat is real (EV and xwOBA on Contact was strong) then he could help some
5) It’s harder with pitchers but one of the biggest storylines of the season will be Whitlock, Bello, and Houck’s performance as starters. These 3 and Casas are who I’ll care most about watching this year.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
|
Post by mobaz on Dec 22, 2022 9:53:03 GMT -5
What players are you keeping an eye on this year to beat their projections and provide more to the big league club than most expect? I’ll start with my top of mind watchlist: 1) Verdugo. This will be his age 27 year. Will we get a noticeable “prime” from him? He has the potential to hit for a very high average, but can he also get his ISO in the .150 range? 2) Casas. How good can he be in his first full season? I’d be happy if his steamer projection came true (~120 wRC+), but he’s got upside. 3) Wong. If he can be a league average hitter or better, that would be a boon long term. I think he’s a sleeper 4) Valdez. Can he hit his way to the majors this year and earn some PT? If the bat is real (EV and xwOBA on Contact was strong) then he could help some 5) It’s harder with pitchers but one of the biggest storylines of the season will be Whitlock, Bello, and Houck’s performance as starters. These 3 and Casas are who I’ll care most about watching this year. I would love for Valdez to hit and be passable D. Would cover a lot of short and medium term issues. I expect Bello and Whitlock to be at their best more often. Excited for that duo. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 9:57:38 GMT -5
I'm bullish on Wong too. Just have a hunch he'll look like a borderline starting catcher by the end of the season.
|
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 10:03:55 GMT -5
Depends on what we mean by expectations. I think Yoshida will justify the money… so based on the league response he’ll outperform, if that makes sense.
Not for any reason other than the gambler in me I will also take Pivetta. I just think he’s the kind of guy who has one season that is an aberration in his career… where it all comes together and he just feels it. I’ll roll with him once more.
|
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 22, 2022 10:05:57 GMT -5
What players are you keeping an eye on this year to beat their projections and provide more to the big league club than most expect? I’ll start with my top of mind watchlist: 1) Verdugo. This will be his age 27 year. Will we get a noticeable “prime” from him? He has the potential to hit for a very high average, but can he also get his ISO in the .150 range? 2) Casas. How good can he be in his first full season? I’d be happy if his steamer projection came true (~120 wRC+), but he’s got upside. 3) Wong. If he can be a league average hitter or better, that would be a boon long term. I think he’s a sleeper 4) Valdez. Can he hit his way to the majors this year and earn some PT? If the bat is real (EV and xwOBA on Contact was strong) then he could help some 5) It’s harder with pitchers but one of the biggest storylines of the season will be Whitlock, Bello, and Houck’s performance as starters. These 3 and Casas are who I’ll care most about watching this year. I like this list. I’ll add a few: Yoshida - an obvious candidate since there are such wide bars on his projections, but we haven’t seen a hitter quite in his mold come from Japan so curious to see what that looks like. Devers - if he doesn’t sign an extension does his bet on himself work with a major walk year? Rafaela - If he crushes it in the minors we could see him late summer and I’d love to see what he brings. Hamilton - A guy who can benefit from some of the new rules, if the bat can get going at all I could see him up at some point as a really interesting bench guy. I miss stolen base kings. |
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2022 10:12:08 GMT -5
What players are you keeping an eye on this year to beat their projections and provide more to the big league club than most expect? I’ll start with my top of mind watchlist: 1) Verdugo. This will be his age 27 year. Will we get a noticeable “prime” from him? He has the potential to hit for a very high average, but can he also get his ISO in the .150 range? 2) Casas. How good can he be in his first full season? I’d be happy if his steamer projection came true (~120 wRC+), but he’s got upside. 3) Wong. If he can be a league average hitter or better, that would be a boon long term. I think he’s a sleeper 4) Valdez. Can he hit his way to the majors this year and earn some PT? If the bat is real (EV and xwOBA on Contact was strong) then he could help some 5) It’s harder with pitchers but one of the biggest storylines of the season will be Whitlock, Bello, and Houck’s performance as starters. These 3 and Casas are who I’ll care most about watching this year. I like this list. I’ll add a few: Yoshida - an obvious candidate since there are such wide bars on his projections, but we haven’t seen a hitter quite in his mold come from Japan so curious to see what that looks like. Devers - if he doesn’t sign an extension does his bet on himself work with a major walk year? Rafaela - If he crushes it in the minors we could see him late summer and I’d love to see what he brings. Hamilton - A guy who can benefit from some of the new rules, if the bat can get going at all I could see him up at some point as a really interesting bench guy. I miss stolen base kings. I considered Hamilton and Abreu as deep cuts. I think they have very slim chances of making it long term, but that would be very nice. Maybe the biggest thing they both have going for them is that they draw BBs. We don’t know if they’ll hit enough, but at least they aren’t free swingers like Rafaela. I don’t think the pressure will be on Rafaela this year with Kiké so more than anything, I don’t want him rushed. But I really, really want him to be legit so this org has a long term CF. I don’t think Kiké is that guy and I don’t see a slam dunk FA or prospect alternative on the horizon either. |
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 22, 2022 10:21:03 GMT -5
To go along with this, something that Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs added this year to his ZiPS projections is a few different distributions of outcomes, which helps with showing what a player's (realistic) upside is. Verdugo for example is projected to put up 2.2 WAR, but his 80th percentile projection is 3.7 WAR which would be great. It shows that he has a gear that he hasn't tapped into yet. Yoshida's projection is similar, a baseline of 2.8, but his 80th percentile projection is 3.9. I think if this team is going to contend, the majority of the position player WAR is going to have to come from Devers, Story, Yoshida and Verdugo. If that group of players can put up ~15 WAR the Red Sox will contend, and I don't think that is a crazy outcome.
On the pitching side I think outperforming projections basically comes down to health and playing time. Sale and Whitlock are projected to throw 83 innings each, which is just kind of a guess. If those guys can make 25 starts, which is a big if obviously, then they will likely outperform their projections.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2022 10:24:57 GMT -5
15 months ago. 😉
|
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 10:30:25 GMT -5
To go along with this, something that Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs added this year to his ZiPS projections is a few different distributions of outcomes, which helps with showing what a player's (realistic) upside is. Verdugo for example is projected to put up 2.2 WAR, but his 80th percentile projection is 3.7 WAR which would be great. It shows that he has a gear that he hasn't tapped into yet. Yoshida's projection is similar, a baseline of 2.8, but his 80th percentile projection is 3.9. I think if this team is going to contend, the majority of the position player WAR is going to have to come from Devers, Story, Yoshida and Verdugo. If that group of players can put up ~15 WAR the Red Sox will contend, and I don't think that is a crazy outcome. On the pitching side I think outperforming projections basically comes down to health and playing time. Sale and Whitlock are projected to throw 83 innings each, which is just kind of a guess. If those guys can make 25 starts, which is a big if obviously, then they will likely outperform their projections. Speaking of starters… baseball reference has Paxton throwing 60 innings. I am obviously very skeptical of Paxton, but I’ll take the over on that just because if it under summer is going to be unpleasant. |
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,068 
|
Post by cdj on Dec 22, 2022 10:54:28 GMT -5
I have a feeling Bello will outperform every expectation of him and establish himself as the best pitcher on the team
Now excuse me I have to go knock on some wood
|
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Dec 22, 2022 11:17:41 GMT -5
I'm expecting Yorke to have a strong bounce-back year.
|
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Dec 22, 2022 11:31:58 GMT -5
I'm expecting Yorke to have a strong bounce-back year. Me too. I think he gets back on track. |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 22, 2022 11:34:21 GMT -5
I am just a simple fanboy who expects Bello to put up 3.5 WAR to establish himself as a stud
|
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 12:08:14 GMT -5
Agree with a lot of the names thrown out so far, but I'll also add Story. I think we're going to be feeling great about that contract this time next year. I mean I already am, but I think he'll really prove himself to the fans this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Dec 22, 2022 12:51:41 GMT -5
Nice thread! Some positivity in these trying times
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2022 13:01:22 GMT -5
While I think Verdugo has another gear in him I dont think he'll reach it.
I think people are rightfully conservative with Yoshida's projections but I'm hopeful he will exceed it. My guess is that the guy can really hit.
I do think Casas will take a huge step forward. Just not sure if it's this year or next but it'll happen.
I like Valdez in a sneaky way.
I agree regarding Yorke. If he's healthy he will hit. I also think Paulino will hit as well.
I'll guess Zack Kelly out of the bullpen will exceed expectations.
|
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Dec 22, 2022 13:43:45 GMT -5
Going to keep it simple so everything below is Avg/obp
Casas: .265/.350 29 HRs.
Story: .256/.330 26 HRs
Verdugo: .291/.346 16 HRs
I’ll leave it at those 3 there so I do see major improvement at 1B with Casas obviously
Bello, we all need to keep in mind that he had a 2.94 FIP in his 57 MLB innings, to go a long with his dominant minor league numbers.
I have more faith in him and Casas beating expectations than really anyone else
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 14:09:45 GMT -5
Going to keep it simple so everything below is Avg/obp Casas: .265/.350 29 HRs. Story: .256/.330 26 HRs Verdugo: .291/.346 16 HRs I’ll leave it at those 3 there so I do see major improvement at 1B with Casas obviously Bello, we all need to keep in mind that he had a 2.94 FIP in his 57 MLB innings, to go a long with his dominant minor league numbers. I have more faith in him and Casas beating expectations than really anyone else Except for homer totals, those projections are almost identical to ZiPS projections, so I'm not sure any of those would really count as "outperforming." |
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Dec 22, 2022 14:21:46 GMT -5
Going to keep it simple so everything below is Avg/obp Casas: .265/.350 29 HRs. Story: .256/.330 26 HRs Verdugo: .291/.346 16 HRs I’ll leave it at those 3 there so I do see major improvement at 1B with Casas obviously Bello, we all need to keep in mind that he had a 2.94 FIP in his 57 MLB innings, to go a long with his dominant minor league numbers. I have more faith in him and Casas beating expectations than really anyone else Except for homer totals, those projections are almost identical to ZiPS projections, so I'm not sure any of those would really count as "outperforming." To be fair that says more about Zips because that was basically just rough projection bumps in numbers based off baseball reference stats . Either way Zips projects 1B to be way better at least than last year if that is what they see for Casas |
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2022 15:07:51 GMT -5
I'm expecting Yorke to have a strong bounce-back year. He and Binelas bounce backs please. I’m curious to see where Yorke starts. I’d give him a second whack at hitting in Greenville personally. Nice thread! Some positivity in these trying times Vibe policing |
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 22, 2022 15:22:51 GMT -5
Couple other guys to toss in who I think were all projecting for basically nothing this year - Mata and Walter. If all goes well we don’t see them much if at all, but the team could definitely use a great lefty in the bullpen and could see either of them being that weapon in September (maybe more likely Walter given Mata’s TJ).
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 22, 2022 15:33:54 GMT -5
I like Walter as a prospect to outperform expectations. He was going to force his way to the majors last year before he got hurt. I dunno if he's gonna get back to what he was, but people are forgetting just how good he was.
Binelas is a write off in most people's minds and I think he hits enough to keep people interested this season
|
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Dec 22, 2022 16:04:12 GMT -5
Bello is going to get some down ballot Cy Young votes this year. Book it.
|
|
|
|
Post by trajanacc on Dec 22, 2022 16:39:48 GMT -5
This is like trying to beat the house in sports betting. Just as often as not, you end up being wrong.
Anybody know if ZIPS represents mean or median outcomes? I guess if I knew that I could make some good guesses.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2022 17:30:47 GMT -5
I'm bullish on everyone. Everyone.
And in other news, the sun will rise tomorrow morning.
Seriously ... no one has mentioned Trevor Story? I'm calling a return to his pre-2021 form and maybe even his health. sWAR is fWAR adjusted for situational hitting.
PA sWAR Per600
2016 415 3.1 4.5
2017 555 2.5 2.7
2018 656 4.9 4.5
2019 656 5.5 5.1
2020 259 2.0 4.7
2021 595 3.3 3.3
2022 396 2.1 3.2
There's 2 to 3 extra wins of team improvement.
|
|
