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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 28, 2022 0:12:42 GMT -5
The boys brought this up in the latest pod (#269), so it got me thinking... what would it take?
He's about to turn 23 and would become a FA at 29 if left alone after three arb years. How many years of control do you want? How much is too much to turn down and yet still a sound investment? Risk! Reward! The new and improved (at least as far as the players are concerned) market!
Discuss.
EDIT: Shall we start the bidding at 8 yrs/$64m? Just spitballing here...
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Post by incandenza on Dec 28, 2022 0:21:15 GMT -5
The precedent that comes to mind is Evan White, who signed a 6/24 extension I believe before he even hit the majors in 2020, with 3 club options. That has... not worked out well for the Mariners. But obviously when you do the extension *that* early you can really minimize the downside risk for the team. (And congratulations, Evan White, on making many times more money than I will make in my entire life!)
Casas is probably a better prospect than White ever was, though. As team friendly as Albies' extension was, I'd be happy to give Casas that deal even without Casas having established himself in the majors.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 28, 2022 0:24:42 GMT -5
Kid seems like a true pro, I’d be cool with extending him
I’d try and give Bello an 8 year deal too
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 28, 2022 0:26:17 GMT -5
Michael Harris signed for 8/73 with a 15 and 20 team options in August of a 5 WAR rookie year
Casas in spring training will be a year behind Harris in service and doesn't have an impressive major league performance record. So something like 9/50 with a couple team options would be a pretty fair offer IMO. Most players that are not Atlanta Braves would rather bet on themselves than sign a deal like that though.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 28, 2022 0:33:28 GMT -5
The precedent that comes to mind is Evan White, who signed a 6/24 extension I believe before he even hit the majors in 2020, with 3 club options. That has... not worked out well for the Mariners. But obviously when you do the extension *that* early you can really minimize the downside risk for the team. (And congratulations, Evan White, on making many times more money than I will make in my entire life!) Casas is probably a better prospect than White ever was, though. As team friendly as Albies' extension was, I'd be happy to give Casas that deal even without Casas having established himself in the majors. Seems like a good comp although White topped out in the 50s in national prospect rankings, whereas Casas was in the teens. White also didn't fare quite as well in his first taste of the Show.
I'd bet that the Sox brass try to use him as a comp, tho...
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 28, 2022 12:20:47 GMT -5
Harris is a good comp, and as noted should be on the high side of Casas given his ROY under his belt. A few other comps from a bit further back might be.......
in March2019 after 150 PA's 24yo Brandon Lowe signed a 6/$24M w/ an additional two team options. Casas is a year younger.
A month later, 21yo Ronald Acuna, Jr signed a 8/$100M w/ an additional two team options following his NL ROY season.
Given age, experience etc. Casas would appear to be somewhere between these two guys. A few years have passed so some adjustment for inflation might be needed
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Post by asm19 on Nov 14, 2023 11:22:04 GMT -5
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Post by ephus on Nov 14, 2023 13:25:03 GMT -5
Gary Sanchez. Man.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 14, 2023 13:36:12 GMT -5
In Sanchez's case, though, with the exception of two games at the end of 2015, he was debuting in August of 2016. It was his first 50 games in MLB - that first stretch of a rookie's career where they look amazing before the league adjusts to them, aka the Middlebrooks Mirage.
Casas, by contrast, was already a few hundred PAs into his career when he went nuclear; the league had already had a chance to develop an approach to him and he dominated anyway.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 14, 2023 13:47:51 GMT -5
A Casas extension is kind of tough to me, I love the bat I believe in him being a middle of the lineup thumper for years to come. Can he stick at 1st base though? Not saying he needs to be a gold glover at the position but his defensive #s are so poor that I am having a hard time thinking now is the time to give him an extension.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 14, 2023 13:58:25 GMT -5
Would love a Casas extension, but there is a downside that it would cut into their ability to spend on other additions now. You're adding at least $10M to the payroll to get it done right?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 14, 2023 14:05:25 GMT -5
This is what I came up when looking at it last winter for an extension starting with 2024... like 7/68.5, 2024-30  |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 21:16:21 GMT -5
Looks like 8/$64m was pretty close...
I hope we find out what the real contract is very soon.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 14, 2023 23:13:15 GMT -5
A Casas extension is kind of tough to me, I love the bat I believe in him being a middle of the lineup thumper for years to come. Can he stick at 1st base though? Not saying he needs to be a gold glover at the position but his defensive #s are so poor that I am having a hard time thinking now is the time to give him an extension. I can easily see his defensive metrics getting in the way of an extension. Breslow and his team will take those numbers into account when they decide on TC's worth, just as they should. But TC and his reps will try to downplay the numbers' significance - just as they should. His defense was a major drag on his WAR and will continue to be just that unless he makes a dramatic improvement. He put up a nice 129 wRC+/OPS+ but B-Ref has him as only a 2.2-win player with his defense at -1. FG has him at only 1.7 WAR. Casas, Raffy, Duran and Masa have something in common when it comes to their overall value. But I've been a fan of his bat all along because of the approach and I hope they work something out with him. |
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 14, 2023 23:30:18 GMT -5
Would love a Casas extension, but there is a downside that it would cut into their ability to spend on other additions now. You're adding at least $10M to the payroll to get it done right? I definitely agree with this and will take the opportunity to make a public service announcement: big-market teams like the Red Sox should stop being their own worst enemy with stupid contracts that hinder them when they want to extend pre-arb players in this LTT world. The Sale contract was nuts from the beginning and could have affected D-Dom's ability to extend some of the young guns who got us the 2016-to-2018 run. (I doubt that it would have helped with Mookie Betts, as he struck me as someone who wanted to get to FA and max out. Nothing wrong with that. Players won that right through negotiations and court fights.) I hoped that Chaim Bloom would get us off that treadmill. But his Story and Yoshida contracts will rob the organization of headroom in trying to work out extensions with Casas, Bello and other guys they might want to keep long term, such as Houck, Duran and some of the crop arriving in the next couple of years. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2023 0:12:11 GMT -5
Would love a Casas extension, but there is a downside that it would cut into their ability to spend on other additions now. You're adding at least $10M to the payroll to get it done right? I definitely agree with this and will take the opportunity to make a public service announcement: big-market teams like the Red Sox should stop being their own worst enemy with stupid contracts that hinder them when they want to extend pre-arb players in this LTT world. The Sale contract was nuts from the beginning and could have affected D-Dom's ability to extend some of the young guns who got us the 2016-to-2018 run. (I doubt that it would have helped with Mookie Betts, as he struck me as someone who wanted to get to FA and max out. Nothing wrong with that. Players won that right through negotiations and court fights.) I hoped that Chaim Bloom would get us off that treadmill. But his Story and Yoshida contracts will rob the organization of headroom in trying to work out extensions with Casas, Bello and other guys they might want to keep long term, such as Houck, Duran and some of the crop arriving in the next couple of years. Not to say they're great bargains, but it's not like Story and Yoshida are 10-year megadeals; their contracts are both set to expire before Bello and Casas are even scheduled to hit FA. You wouldn't want the team to never sign the kind of FAs that require 5-year+ contracts, right? |
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Post by keninten on Nov 15, 2023 1:00:17 GMT -5
When was this poll closed? Probably after the season.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 10, 2024 10:12:52 GMT -5
The team hasn’t broken the bank thus far in free agency - maybe they don’t like making bad decisions? - so why not spend some of that money locking down home grown talent into their projected free agent years?
For the sake of consistency, I’ll keep the opening bid at 8/$64m. That actually seems a little light now, no?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 7, 2024 14:59:17 GMT -5
Dan Szymborski gave the ZiPS-calculated extension offer for Casas in a chat:
All extensions of early career players seem to converge on something close to this.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2024 15:02:31 GMT -5
It seems about fair for a 1st base only guy with one year of service but I could also see why Casas would say no thanks to that.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 7, 2024 15:41:00 GMT -5
It seems about fair for a 1st base only guy with one year of service but I could also see why Casas would say no thanks to that. Yeah, he's already made like four million and will make several more million even if he rapidly flames out. Don't think there's going to be any urgency to lock in money on his end.
His age 30 FA season is just not going to rate to be a huge prize until he goes out and actually puts up a 4 WAR season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Mar 8, 2024 13:06:27 GMT -5
I’d offer 8 for $80 million
I don’t think he accepts that but he is definitely not accepting $64 million
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 8, 2024 22:09:35 GMT -5
I’d offer 8 for $80 million I don’t think he accepts that but he is definitely not accepting $64 million I've been heavily on the side of locking up Casas because I think he's going to be a big producer. I thought that even during his rough first half of '23. My first reaction to the 8 years/$80M idea was "Yeah, that sounds about right." But the more I mull this over the more I think it's going to be extremely difficult to get a deal that works for both sides. Here's why: Casas just turned 24 in January and needs to play five more seasons to be eligible for FA. An 8-year deal that starts with 2024 would make him a FA at age 32. By then, he's probably going to be even more of a one-dimensional player than he is now, probably a DH in fact. Even if he's still serviceable at 1B for a year or two beyond that, he'll be at the extreme wrong end of the defensive spectrum. He'd have to be a huge offensive stud to get a big, long-term deal at that point. So, I think his rep probbly tells him, "Just mash at Fenway for five years. You'll make enough money in your arb years to be set for life. Then you can hit FA at 29 and get a decent contract." |
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Post by incandenza on Mar 8, 2024 22:52:58 GMT -5
Good points. It doesn't help, from the Red Sox perspective, that arb salaries favor the kind of stats he's likely to do best in rather than actual WAR value.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 9, 2024 9:54:15 GMT -5
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