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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2013 5:26:26 GMT -5
OK, before you blast me think about it. Are they not closer in value than we generally perceive on this forum? 1) Coyle appears to be to me a better defender 2) Colyle may have more present power 3) Coyle is 9 months younger, playing at the same level. 4) Coyle was drafted at roughly the same level, ( actually one round sooner ) Cechinni - www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t414&t=p_pbp&pid=594555Coyle - www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t414&t=p_pbp&pid=592231To me, Cechinni has several advantages: 1) Bigger size and projectable upside 2) Maybe a little better hitting off speed stuff 3) A better hitting approach All very big factors. From a scouting perspective Cechinni appears to be the one with better tools I would think, but has Coyle's perceived value been restrained some by his more aggressive placement? When Coyle was at Greenville, at a younger age, he hit 14 HR with 48 XBH in 384 AB When Cechinni was at Greenville, he hit 4 HR with 46 XBH in 455 AB They both are at the same level this year. Is it possible that they might put up similar numbers? I'd still give Cechinni the edge but I think Coyle has a real shot. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2013 8:40:45 GMT -5
Cechinni. Coyle has K rates that scare me.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 20, 2013 9:38:12 GMT -5
CECCHINI (note the spelling).
And, no, they're not close in value. Coyle is well on his way to an early promotion to AA, however, after repeating high-A ball.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2013 10:51:39 GMT -5
I remain....forum contrarian!
Seriously though, I also think Cecchini has more value but I think Coyle is under appreciated. Being put in Greenville shortly after high school maybe affected his numbers significantly. His OPS wasn't that bad that first year, though, especially for a 2nd baseman. Coyle seems like he has major work to do on his approach but he has time to develop further. He can do some damage when he does hit and that is helpful.
He's like a pocket Ian Kinsler!
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Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2013 11:39:27 GMT -5
Good post. Cecchini has better contact skills and much better plate discipline, so I don't think the two are particularly close, but I think you raised a good point-- Sean Coyle has become underrated after the slow start he had in 2012, and he could shoot up the ranks with a good season. He should get significant playing time in Portland this year at the age of 21, and his combination of skills (plus bat speed, solid power potential, good defense at 2B) are intriguing.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 13:42:08 GMT -5
Cecchini because he is a better hitter, he has a bigger frame so more power potential, and more speed. I'd say Coyle is better defensively though.
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Post by sibbysisti on Apr 21, 2013 10:06:30 GMT -5
Another factor to consider in Cecchini's favor is his base running ability. Fifty one SBs last year at Greenville.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 21, 2013 15:23:38 GMT -5
Another factor to consider in Cecchini's favor is his base running ability. Fifty one SBs last year at Greenville. As we've said a number of times, he isn't expected to steal bases at the higher levels, never mind MLB. With a steal today, he's 7 for 10 on the year, but four of those successful steals have come in this series against Lynchburg. For reference, Salem has five steals in seven innings today alone, and they're now 13 for 14 in the two and 7/9ths games of the series. (Apparently Lynchburg is bad at controlling the running game, or for developmental reasons they don't have the pitchers worrying about runners or something, because that is just dumb.) Anyway, getting back to Cecchini, 3 for 6 is not a number that portends future success stealing bases, but we'll see how he does as the season goes on. I am excited about how the other facets of his game are coming along, although he did commit his fifth error of the season in today's game as well. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 21, 2013 19:46:17 GMT -5
Why choose? Both look like solid prospects right now.
I think Cecchini has to ranked higher, though.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 26, 2013 13:03:36 GMT -5
Not a lot of 2nd basemen have pop. If Coyle is a decent defender he can hit .260 and still play if he has 20 HR pop.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 26, 2013 13:47:44 GMT -5
Coyle hasn't been caught stealing since.........?
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 26, 2013 14:36:48 GMT -5
"If Coyle is a decent defender he can hit .260 and still play if he has 20 HR pop."
Is he a 20 hr guy at the ML level? Will he average 18+ over any five seasons?
In his last five seasons, Pedroia has averaged 15 a year. Kinsler has average 20.5 in his career. Coyle isn't going to have nearly the contact those guys, so 20 HR seems like a "one time in a crazy season" projection for Coyle. He may get there if everything falls perfectly, but I don't think it's fair to sell Coyle with that as a projection, unless you really think he has Weeks-Cano-Hill type pop.
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Post by jchang on Apr 26, 2013 14:39:14 GMT -5
per moneyball, each point of OBP is worth 3 points SLG, as of 4/25 game
Cecchini is 450/559
Coyle is 392/761
for +58 to Cecchini on OBP, and +202 to Coyle on SLG
so slight advantage to Coyle,
but it sure is great to have a collection of good hitters from Salem to Pawtucket
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 26, 2013 14:39:27 GMT -5
It's sort of like talking about Ellsbury as the CF with the rare gift of 30 HR power.
Boras can talk about the 30 HR season all he wants (and I'm sure he will), but Ellsbury is a CF who once hit 30 HR, not a "30 HR centerfielder"
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 26, 2013 14:44:24 GMT -5
I do think Coyle is probably a better prospect than thought, and he was pushed hard. From the sound of it though, he was a lot of work to do in the plate approach to be able to hit enough to realistically be a "20 HR" guy.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 26, 2013 15:20:09 GMT -5
Pedroia only had 5 HR in 493 AB in AAA ball in 2006, at 23 or 24 years old I believe, his last year in the minors. And Coyle has 5 HR so far this year in April. Just saying!
I take the point that he probably is not going to average 20 HR in the majors but he may have a few years in that range. In Fenway with his swing. I'm not saying he's Pedroia or even saying he's going to be a 20 HR guy in the majors but I am saying it's possible that he is a relatively low average guy who can put up some decent HR numbers for a 2nd baseman. He's not a typical 2nd base type. He has some pop. Probably more than Pedroia had and Coyle is still just 21. He has further time to develop.
It seems likely that he will have to learn to go to RF more and have a much better approach but even if he never hits for a high average he may well have good pop before he is done. He's still very young and he clearly has shown some early pop.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 26, 2013 15:26:57 GMT -5
Coyle hasn't been caught stealing since.........? 2011. At least 21 steals in a row. The kid does some things right! |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 26, 2013 15:36:49 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 26, 2013 15:40:20 GMT -5
I take the point that he probably is not going to average 20 HR in the majors but he may have a few years in that range. In Fenway with his swing. I'm not saying he's Pedroia or even saying he's going to be a 20 HR guy in the majors but I am saying it's possible that he is a relatively low average guy who can put up some decent HR numbers for a 2nd baseman. He's not a typical 2nd base type. He has some pop. Probably more than Pedroia had and Coyle is still just 21. He has further time to develop. Maybe in BP, but I doubt Coyle will ever match Pedroia in game power. Pedroia's power plays up because he's got freakishly good contact ability and an excellent approach at the plate. Whereas with Coyle, those are actually the weakest aspects of his game and the things most likely to keep him from ever starting in the big leagues. He's going to have to keep his strikeout rate in check as he advances through the minors, and in doing that the power is probably going to diminish somewhat. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2013 16:37:36 GMT -5
per moneyball, each point of OBP is worth 3 points SLG, as of 4/25 game Cecchini is 450/559 Coyle is 392/ 761for +58 to Cecchini on OBP, and +202 to Coyle on SLG so slight advantage to Coyle, but it sure is great to have a collection of good hitters from Salem to Pawtucket You realize how absurd this analysis is right? Coyle can't be expected to slug .500 over the course of the year let alone where he's at now. It's Cecchini and not even close. It's also irrelevant as they play different positions. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 27, 2013 23:40:45 GMT -5
It's sometimes difficult to evaluate anomalies. A statistical outlier. To a degree, Coyle might be a Will Middlebrooks type hitter who will have good pop but hit for a restrained average due to approach failings. As with Middlebrooks, he may be the sort of player takes longer to develop to his full potential. Coyle is a statistical outlier for a 2nd baseman. But I sense that he might still be of exceptional value before he is through.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 27, 2013 23:51:24 GMT -5
Does anyone have any data about Cecchini's ability to hit curve balls and off speed stuff? There was an interview once where he said he was in an international tournament (USA baseball) and he did well because he kept getting fed curveballs but he was able to hit them. His contact rate is quite good isn't it? My impression is that he might do well in advanced levels, or at least is well prepared for more advanced levels of baseball.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 28, 2013 0:26:48 GMT -5
According to the reports, Coyle has a few weaknesses at the plate. Overswinging at times, Too pull conscious, and having trouble in picking up off pitches. He seems to have improved on the areas this season but I don't know how much he improved. I am looking at his K% and BB%, which might be the sign about his skills. Hopefully he should be better over time. Clearly I am intrigued by his tremendous raw power.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 28, 2013 1:19:26 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I feel like that if everything goes right, Coyle could become a second basemen in the mold of Danny Espinosa. I hate direct comps, but I feel that from an offensive standpoint this one may fit, and though that is a valuable commodity to have, it is not someone to get overly excited about until it looks like that cieling is attainable.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 11:43:58 GMT -5
As of today:
Cecchini: 14.8 BB%, 13.6 K%
Coyle: 10.0 BB% 21.7 K%
If I have have a choice between these two I'm taking Cecchini and it's not even close.
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