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Post by elguapo on Apr 28, 2013 12:07:41 GMT -5
As of today: Cecchini: 14.8 BB%, 13.6 K% Coyle: 10.0 BB% 21.7 K% Shaw: 23.7 BB% 17.2% K% What!? Players of different ages at different places on the defensive spectrum in small samples, among other variables? Far too simplistic. I tend to prefer players with good discipline but Coyle seems to be not hopeless in that regard.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 28, 2013 12:10:42 GMT -5
It's unanimous for Cecchini but I think we all have given Coyle a 2nd look and Coyle's performance this year so far confirms that it is warranted. I bet he keeps improving. No way he maintains his current HR rate but my bet is that he will walk more going forward, get on base more than he has in the past and hit for a higher average certainly than he did last year. And if he does have significant pop and can play good defense he will probably have a mlb level career.
Several of us projected Cechinni to have a breakout year in 2013 and it was noted that "what was last year, chop liver?". Well this is what I'm talking about. The kid is acting like a true baseball rat now.
It's great to see talent like this rise to the top. Maybe they both are in AA by mid year?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 14:31:46 GMT -5
As of today: Cecchini: 14.8 BB%, 13.6 K% Coyle: 10.0 BB% 21.7 K% Shaw: 23.7 BB% 17.2% K% What!? Players of different ages at different places on the defensive spectrum in small samples, among other variables? Far too simplistic. I tend to prefer players with good discipline but Coyle seems to be not hopeless in that regard. Well, this isn't the Shaw Vs. Coyle Vs. Cecchini thread. I'm not really sure what the point you're driving at is. I'd also point out that second and third base have historically been fairly close in terms of offensive replacement level. First base is a whole different thing.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 14:33:32 GMT -5
It's great to see talent like this rise to the top. Maybe they both are in AA by mid year? If Cecchini keeps this up he might be in AA by mid-May. With Coyle the biggest issue is his approach so he may move a little slower. On the other hand, he's shown improvement in that regard, at least statistically, and he is repeating the level, so there's some potential for him to move quickly as well.
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Post by bentossaurus on Apr 28, 2013 14:43:20 GMT -5
In my view, after a certain point, BB% tells me more about the pitchers on that level and how they perceive the hitter than the hitter's approach or plate discipline itself. Everything else being the same (and that's not even the case in this debate) go with the guy who has less K%.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 14:59:33 GMT -5
Walk rate certainly isn't everything and sometimes a high walk rate can actually be a bad thing (Che-Hsuan Lin). What I love about Cecchini's statistical profile so far is how balanced it is. Hitting for average, hitting for power, willing to take a walk AND not striking out excessively.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 28, 2013 15:45:05 GMT -5
Walk rate certainly isn't everything and sometimes a high walk rate can actually be a bad thing (Che-Hsuan Lin). What I love about Cecchini's statistical profile so far is how balanced it is. Hitting for average, hitting for power, willing to take a walk AND not striking out excessively. Plus, he has the best nickname in the whole system (The Boss).
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 28, 2013 15:59:26 GMT -5
There are two good references for Cecchini's callup.
Kalish .304 .434 .513 .947 (BB% 18.2%, K% 14%) with Salem - 32 games Bradley.359 .480 .526 1.006 (BB% 17.3%, K% 13.3%) with Salem - 67 games
Cecchini has played 20 games in Salem so far. .373 .466 .640 1.106 (BB% 14.8 K% 13.6%)
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 28, 2013 17:39:54 GMT -5
Depth charts at 2B and 3B:
Pawtucket 2B - Holt (12)/Diaz (7)/Henry (5) Portland 2B - Meneses (15)/Gibson (4)/Dent (2)/Vitek (1) Salem 2B - Coyle (12)/Natoli (5)/Garcia (4)/Johns (1)
Pawtucket 3B - Sutton (16)/Henry (6)/Diaz (2) Portland 3B - Almanzar (13)/Vitek (7)/Gibson (1) Salem 3B - Cecchini (19)/Johns (1)/Renfroe (1)
I don't think either Coyle or Cecchini will be quick promotes, given the players ahead of them in Portland. My guess is that rosters will sort themselves out by the trade deadline, opening some spots for promotions.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 17:46:26 GMT -5
There are two good references for Cecchini's callup. Kalish .304 .434 .513 .947 (BB% 18.2%, K% 14%) with Salem - 32 games Bradley.359 .480 .526 1.006 (BB% 17.3%, K% 13.3%) with Salem - 67 games Cecchini has played 20 games in Salem so far. .373 .466 .640 1.106 (BB% 14.8 K% 13.6%) You missed the fact that Kalish played 18 games (73 at-bats) in Lancaster the prior season. He also played that winter in the Hawaii Baseball League, which was equivalent to about High-A in terms of talent level.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 28, 2013 18:10:30 GMT -5
Bradley was a older also wasn't he, coming from a college background. Decent comparisons though.
To me the Cechinni situation looks a little like Ellsbury's breakout AA performance. Just couldn't get him out.
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Post by hughlangin on Apr 29, 2013 12:12:30 GMT -5
I think people tend to forget how young Coyle was coming into the system. Not every high school prospect is going to come in and dominate pro ball, it may take some time for them to start moving up the learning curve. Coyle is 21 right now in high A hitting well, JBJ was struggling in college when he was 21. But we forgot all about that when he started moving through the system last year. I'm not trying to compare Coyle to JBJ in any way, but I am excited about what I've seen so far. It's still early and Coyle still has a way to go, but if he does end up reaching his ceiling we just may look back at the beginning of this season as a turning point for him.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 29, 2013 19:05:33 GMT -5
Another HR for Coyle tonight. any room left on his bandwagon?
PS-I'm bullish on Cecchini as well.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 14, 2014 13:18:23 GMT -5
Looking at Coyle's numbers this morning, his HR rate is down a lot but his average is way up. Has he changed his approach? His strikeouts are down some. It's 126 AB now. Is he just having a good year or has he changed something?
In hindsight, he and Cechinni are looking like similar level prospects as time goes on. Coyle with some defensive advantages and maybe even more pop.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2014 13:23:07 GMT -5
This is not as large a sample as you seem to be implying it is.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 14, 2014 13:49:10 GMT -5
It was more than enough to bench Nava this year after his great year in 2013. Nava still only has 104 AB this year in mlb. I'm not saying he's a can't miss but it is significant. I'm sure you can cite a standard deviation that's way high or whatever for this size sample but it's not 50 AB or a tiny little sample like that.
The point is not that he has enough sample size to really know what he can do. I'm just saying given his defense as being at least average and some pop in his bat, his showing this year so far has opened a few eyes. And I know you are one of the people who like Coyle here jmei.
I'm implying that it's 126 AB. Nothing more.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 14, 2014 15:00:50 GMT -5
It was more than enough to bench Nava this year after his great year in 2013. Nava still only has 104 AB this year in mlb. I'm not saying he's a can't miss but it is significant. I'm sure you can cite a standard deviation that's way high or whatever for this size sample but it's not 50 AB or a tiny little sample like that. The point is not that he has enough sample size to really know what he can do. I'm just saying given his defense as being at least average and some pop in his bat, his showing this year so far has opened a few eyes. And I know you are one of the people who like Coyle here jmei. I'm implying that it's 126 AB. Nothing more. This is maybe the worst possible example you could have used.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 14, 2014 18:41:19 GMT -5
You guys are a tough audience. I said "It's 126 AB now". That doesn't imply anything. It's just giving data. I still think Cechinni has an edge but it is closer than many people think in my opinion. As they advance we may appreciate his defense more compared to Cechinni's and his pop compared to Cechinni's as well.
Getting back to whether or not Coyle has changed something, has he? His HR numbers are way down and his average is way up. It could well be just statistical SSS but 126 AB is quite a bit for a swing that wide to me. I know HR often come in bunches. That doesn't sway me much but the average does some. His strikeout rate hasn't dropped much ( a little over 25% still ).
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2014 19:09:29 GMT -5
You say that you're not implying anything, and then in the very next paragraph you say that it's "quite a bit" (and mention earlier that it's not "a tiny little sample"). If you think that's enough of a sample to start drawing some very tentative conclusions, just say that and defend it; there's no need to pretend that that's not what you were thinking. Coyle is hitting fewer home runs this year, but his extra-base hit rate is pretty similar (even a bit higher) than years past. Last year, he hit extra-base hits in 10.7% of his PAs in Salem, and this year, it's 11.5% of his PAs in Portland. It just so happens that more of those extra-base hits are going for doubles than for home runs this year. He already has three more doubles in 2014 than he did all of last year in Salem, even though he's only had a little more than half the playing time this year. The improved average is probably bound to regress, though. A .444 BABIP usually does, and Coyle's line drive rate this year is not even crazy-high. However, his strikeout rate has declined this year-- it's at 23% this year in Portland, compared to 29% last year in Salem (you calculated this wrong-- divide by PAs, not ABs). Coyle needs to maintain this new strikeout rate, but if he does, I agree that he's a pretty interesting prospect (I've discussed him previously here). Still quite a bit behind Cecchini, but interesting nonetheless.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jun 15, 2014 10:15:13 GMT -5
Listen Checcinni has proven more. Hes proven he can hit, fastballs and offspeed pitches. Hes proven he can stay healthy. Hes proven hes a good athlete and has better speed then given credit for originally. Hes proven he has a good approach at the plate. His size/frame give hope he can continue to still fill out and hit for more power.
Coyle right now has more present power but there isnt much more room for him to get better there and thats ok hes got good power for a 5'9 2B. Hes just as versatile. Dont no hes a better athlete but it isnt much of drastic difference between the two then some may believe. Coyles proven he is still rawer at the plate needing to learn how to become better at pitch recgonition and learn to take a better aproach at the plate. He has to start hitting the better offspeed pitches the higher in the ranks he goes. Coyle has proven his health is a concern and because of his health he is behind Cecchinni with out a doubt because hes lost time over the last phew years that he could of been playing and learning and getting better. The kids a ML talent wether he stays healthy and realizes his full potentiel and becomes a ML starter or to a lesser degree bench player, or cant stay healthy and dwindiles away is the question.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2014 10:30:34 GMT -5
To me, it just comes down to the fact that a .260/.360/.380 hitter is just more valuable than a .240/.300/.440 one, even though they come out to the same OPS. That, and the fact that Coyle's had more health questions and is a level behind.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,968
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2014 14:01:29 GMT -5
I would say this whole thread recently is "who looks better, a hitter who's hot or one who's not?"
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Post by elguapo on Jun 16, 2014 7:58:48 GMT -5
To me, it just comes down to the fact that a .260/.360/.380 hitter is just more valuable than a .240/.300/.440 one, even though they come out to the same OPS. That, and the fact that Coyle's had more health questions and is a level behind. A level behind - but Coyle's a year younger, and putting up much better #s than Cecchini did at 22 in AA. And what if Cecchini is a LF? Coyle has been pounding the ball since the beginning of last season. But his results so far at AA are far stronger than I would have expected.
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Post by godot on Jun 16, 2014 10:49:14 GMT -5
Walk rate certainly isn't everything and sometimes a high walk rate can actually be a bad thing (Che-Hsuan Lin). What I love about Cecchini's statistical profile so far is how balanced it is. Hitting for average, hitting for power, willing to take a walk AND not striking out excessively. What happened to this kid Fenway touted so much ( can't blame him for that). Cecchini is not hitting for much of an average at AAA, shows little power, and has an increased strike out rate- twice as many ks as bb. Maybe the transition to AAA is tougher than we realized. Bett's jets are cooled somewhat, just not as dominant as in AA. Of course, this does not mean that he will not be, just that perhaps it is a tough transition. Bradley dominated at lower A, but not at AAA. Then again he cooled at AA. Still, would his stats have been predictive of how he is hitting (or not hitting ) now? I am curious as to how these stories will turn out. There may be a lesson there.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 16, 2014 11:15:05 GMT -5
Cecchini is not hitting for much of an average at AAA, shows little power, and has an increased strike out rate- twice as many ks as bb. Pawtucket has seen a lot of down offensive performances so far this season, while Portland has seen something of the reverse. Sometimes that just happens, but it does make you wonder.
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