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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 17, 2023 19:33:24 GMT -5
80 wins or Cora should be on the hot seat. More importantly don't finish in last place. Would any substandard team performance be Cora's fault or the team talent level assembled? C'mon most believe (including the players) that Cora is a fine, fair man and manager. Talent wins out in most cases including with our current Sox.
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Post by manfred on Feb 17, 2023 19:36:40 GMT -5
80 wins or Cora should be on the hot seat. More importantly don't finish in last place. Would any substandard team performance be Cora's fault or the team talent level assembled? C'mon most believe (including the players) that Cora is a fine, fair man and manager. Talent wins out in most cases including with our current Sox. If that is the case, teams like the Royals and Pirates should never fire their managers.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 17, 2023 19:54:40 GMT -5
Would any substandard team performance be Cora's fault or the team talent level assembled? C'mon most believe (including the players) that Cora is a fine, fair man and manager. Talent wins out in most cases including with our current Sox. If that is the case, teams like the Royals and Pirates should never fire their managers. Really guy? How much does a manager contribute to team wins vis a vis its representative talent level? 2-4 wins from positive esprit and decision making? Hard to quantify..But, I don't think any manager can take a 70 win team, based on talent, to a world series champion. Given your apparent stance, what manager would you advance to take the Pirates or KC to the playoffs and on what basis?
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Post by cheers on Feb 17, 2023 20:38:16 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoffs odds launches with the Red Sox at 30% to make the playoffs, and an 81-win projection. They're solidly in 4th place in the division, projected to be 5 games better than the Orioles and 6 games worse than the Blue Jays. This is about where I am leaning towards myself, which is to say I have no earthly idea how the Sox are going to do this year. Could honestly see them losing or winning 90-95 games. If you amend this to be losing or winning 90 games, I'm with you. I don't think they'll either be as bad or as good as 67-95 or 95-67. I'd really enjoy a pleasant 95 win surprise though.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 17, 2023 20:45:09 GMT -5
This is about where I am leaning towards myself, which is to say I have no earthly idea how the Sox are going to do this year. Could honestly see them losing or winning 90-95 games. If you amend this to be losing or winning 90 games, I'm with you. I don't think they'll either be as bad or as good as 67-95 or 95-67. I'd really enjoy a pleasant 95 win surprise though. True, was probably a tad hyperbolic on my end. 95 wins probably gets them around top 5 in the league and on flipside 95 losses gets them near the bottom 5. Without excellent injury luck or once again flipside really bad injury luck its very unlikely.
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Post by manfred on Feb 17, 2023 21:04:36 GMT -5
If that is the case, teams like the Royals and Pirates should never fire their managers. Really guy? How much does a manager contribute to team wins vis a vis its representative talent level? 2-4 wins from positive esprit and decision making? Hard to quantify..But, I don't think any manager can take a 70 win team, based on talent, to a world series champion. Given your apparent stance, what manager would you advance to take the Pirates or KC to the playoffs and on what basis? You seem to be saying what I said… no manager can be held accountable for a bad team. So the manager of the Pirates should have job security as long as they don’t add a ton of talent. To me, the questions are deeper. Are young guys developing? Are you getting the most out of people? Putting guys in a position to succeed? On this site, many are picking the Sox to win 85-90 games. So 80 wins *would* be undershooting to some of the fanbase. If you think Cora should be safe if they are under .500, would you fire Bloom? Surely someone must be accountable if they are sub .500 two years in a row?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 17, 2023 21:29:10 GMT -5
Really guy? How much does a manager contribute to team wins vis a vis its representative talent level? 2-4 wins from positive esprit and decision making? Hard to quantify..But, I don't think any manager can take a 70 win team, based on talent, to a world series champion. Given your apparent stance, what manager would you advance to take the Pirates or KC to the playoffs and on what basis? You seem to be saying what I said… no manager can be held accountable for a bad team. So the manager of the Pirates should have job security as long as they don’t add a ton of talent. To me, the questions are deeper. Are young guys developing? Are you getting the most out of people? Putting guys in a position to succeed? On this site, many are picking the Sox to win 85-90 games. So 80 wins *would* be undershooting to some of the fanbase. If you think Cora should be safe if they are under .500, would you fire Bloom? Surely someone must be accountable if they are sub .500 two years in a row? Short answer, yes.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 17, 2023 21:29:25 GMT -5
If they put up another 78-win season, I think Bloom will be in trouble unless the farm system shows great progress. If Yorke, Romero and Blazer are all in the top 100, that would help him keep his job.
I also think JWH the cut-throat capitalist will take the business side of it into account. If fans are staying away, NESN ratings are sluggish and the organization is generally getting killed PR-wise following another bad season, he'll be more likely to show Bloom the door.
It's not good for any employee in any business to be hooted on and booed by the paying public in front of the boss like Bloom was at Winter Weekend. I know if it happened to me in front of my company's CEO, I'd feel a little stiffness in the back of my neck.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 17, 2023 22:30:50 GMT -5
You seem to be saying what I said… no manager can be held accountable for a bad team. So the manager of the Pirates should have job security as long as they don’t add a ton of talent. To me, the questions are deeper. Are young guys developing? Are you getting the most out of people? Putting guys in a position to succeed? On this site, many are picking the Sox to win 85-90 games. So 80 wins *would* be undershooting to some of the fanbase. If you think Cora should be safe if they are under .500, would you fire Bloom? Surely someone must be accountable if they are sub .500 two years in a row? Short answer, yes. Long answer, it's hard to say without context. Are they sub .500 because Devers tears his ACL in April while fielding a liner off Sale's left pinky? Or are they sub .500 because Yoshida doesn't adjust well to the states, Paxton/Mondesi/Story combine for 2.5 seasons worth of IL time, and all of the 35+ y/o free agent acquisitions have their production fall off a cliff?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 18, 2023 4:20:09 GMT -5
To answer the potential hotseat question of Bloom vs Cora in a down year. I'd say both should be. If they decide to pull plug on Bloom I say you get rid of Cora too. Let the potential new guy pick his own manager.
I know baseball isn't necessarily like football/basketball where I firmly believe just about every time a gm is replaced he should bring in his own coach. However in the case of Cora, whether Bloom chose Cora on his own or was kind of instructed to resign Cora by the ownership. Cora shouldn't last through 3 separate GMs.
That being said let's hope this is a moot point and the Sox put together a solid year and are moving in the right direction come end of season.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 18, 2023 17:58:07 GMT -5
Really guy? How much does a manager contribute to team wins vis a vis its representative talent level? 2-4 wins from positive esprit and decision making? Hard to quantify..But, I don't think any manager can take a 70 win team, based on talent, to a world series champion. Given your apparent stance, what manager would you advance to take the Pirates or KC to the playoffs and on what basis? You seem to be saying what I said… no manager can be held accountable for a bad team. So the manager of the Pirates should have job security as long as they don’t add a ton of talent. To me, the questions are deeper. Are young guys developing? Are you getting the most out of people? Putting guys in a position to succeed? On this site, many are picking the Sox to win 85-90 games. So 80 wins *would* be undershooting to some of the fanbase. If you think Cora should be safe if they are under .500, would you fire Bloom? Surely someone must be accountable if they are sub .500 two years in a row? I think Cora, or any manager, should be judged not solely on wins and losses...but on cumulative team talent provided, his baseball knowledge, in game strategy, maintaining esprit and confidence in his decision making, dealing with players fairly and honestly, handling the media inquiries straight forwardly, and from all the foregoing, commanding and retaining respect of the team members enabling best performances. On history, I don't fault Cora one bit. He checks a lot of boxes. I think that he has performed very well given what he has had coupled with various injuries. Do I blame Bloom? My grade is incomplete. He is not solely responsible for our lower than hoped for talent level. Yes he seems markedly influenced by his Ray pedigree focused on finding gems at the margins resulting in some good, some not so. He has made forward looking decisions and tried to improve the farm with a number of trades...some from a weakened vantage point given financial constraints. Sadly the trades have apparently not markedly improved the farm to date but affording some future financial flexibility. I don't think his drafts have been bad. Clearly, we are in transition. I have good vibes about Casas, Rafaela and Mayer among others. Next year we will have more financial freedom to acquire talent and legitimately challenge. I was a 40 year long suffering Sox fan growing up even when there were only 16 mlb teams. I have experienced 4 world series championships since 2004. How damn lucky!
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 18, 2023 18:27:56 GMT -5
Boy are we ever....LUCKY. How may other organizations wouldn't trade positions with us? Since 2004 we have been blessed. Yes, we have had some bumps, but I'll take the last 18 years. Be patient. These owners are continuously battered. Why? I like Bloom's goal of consistent playoffs and being in the hunt.
I'm, personally, looking for a lot of our young talent maturing. I'm excited to see what Casas, Bello, and even Toshida bring. Over 85 wins is doable if the rotation is healthy.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 18, 2023 20:56:13 GMT -5
Long answer, it's hard to say without context. Are they sub .500 because Devers tears his ACL in April while fielding a liner off Sale's left pinky? Or are they sub .500 because Yoshida doesn't adjust well to the states, Paxton/Mondesi/Story combine for 2.5 seasons worth of IL time, and all of the 35+ y/o free agent acquisitions have their production fall off a cliff? I think I'd want to fire him in either situation. If it's the former, you've basically built a star (singular) and scrubs team and if that star goes down, causing you to end up under .500, I think that's still on you just as much as the latter scenario. Ron Acuña Jr., missed the entire second half of 2021 and the Braves still found a way to win it all.
It's a results based business. Chaim built a team that went to the ALCS in 2021; that buys you one last-place honeymoon year but not two, even if both down years are injury-heavy. If you want to blame injuries, it goes both ways - you could look at 2021 and say they never sneak into the playoffs without remarkable lack-of-injury luck.
I appreciate how Chaim operates and have seen the logic in most of his moves but I don't think he's so special that he's irreplaceable. You can't swing a cat in Florida or Arizona at this time of year without hitting a dozen young Ivy League guys in polo shirts with freshly sunburnt arms and similar skill sets but slightly shorter resumes and less impressive titles than Chaim's. I don't think Chaim is unique.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 19, 2023 0:41:51 GMT -5
Long answer, it's hard to say without context. Are they sub .500 because Devers tears his ACL in April while fielding a liner off Sale's left pinky? Or are they sub .500 because Yoshida doesn't adjust well to the states, Paxton/Mondesi/Story combine for 2.5 seasons worth of IL time, and all of the 35+ y/o free agent acquisitions have their production fall off a cliff? I think I'd want to fire him in either situation. If it's the former, you've basically built a star (singular) and scrubs team and if that star goes down, causing you to end up under .500, I think that's still on you just as much as the latter scenario. Ron Acuña Jr., missed the entire second half of 2021 and the Braves still found a way to win it all.
It's a results based business. Chaim built a team that went to the ALCS in 2021; that buys you one last-place honeymoon year but not two, even if both down years are injury-heavy. If you want to blame injuries, it goes both ways - you could look at 2021 and say they never sneak into the playoffs without remarkable lack-of-injury luck.
I appreciate how Chaim operates and have seen the logic in most of his moves but I don't think he's so special that he's irreplaceable. You can't swing a cat in Florida or Arizona at this time of year without hitting a dozen young Ivy League guys in polo shirts with freshly sunburnt arms and similar skill sets but slightly shorter resumes and less impressive titles than Chaim's. I don't think Chaim is unique.
Suffice it to say that I have a lot more patience for bad luck and delayed gratification than I do for bad decisions. I also don't think it's realistic to hold any GM to the standard of building a legit contender even if they suffer major injuries, much less this one given the context. It feels strange in a win projection thread to say that I don't care that much about W/L record in a vacuum, but that's pretty much where I'm at.
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Post by worldbfree on Feb 19, 2023 11:49:07 GMT -5
80 wins or Cora should be on the hot seat. More importantly don't finish in last place. It most certainly should be both Cora and Bloom
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 22, 2023 10:17:48 GMT -5
80 wins or Cora should be on the hot seat. More importantly don't finish in last place. It most certainly should be both Cora and Bloom Looking at our team last year and I know there was injuries but 77 wins was horrible. Cora made so many bad moves imo. Brining in the wrong pitchers at the wrong time and his lineup was so suspect riding with guys instead of making to correct adjustments.
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Post by tjb21 on Mar 23, 2023 10:56:11 GMT -5
85 wins.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 27, 2023 15:46:19 GMT -5
Jeez even Alex Speier picking the Sox to miss the play-offs. AL East: Blue Jays. In the ornithological community, blue jays are known for aggressive, bullying behavior and a proclivity to attack in mobs. Toronto’s flock appears ready to descend upon its AL East antagonists with perhaps the deepest ensemble of top-end talent in the division.
AL wild cards: Yankees, Twins, Angels. Ohtani seemed to have so much fun in the WBC that he might just decide to play eight positions — sure, Trout, you can play center — and pitch four days a week to ensure a shot at postseason play.The closest they get with The Globe's sports writers is Tara Sullivan calling them "plucky."
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 27, 2023 15:48:01 GMT -5
Love it.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 27, 2023 21:43:50 GMT -5
I’ll go with 78 wins. Too many old guys and too many injury prone guys. It’s a bad combo.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 27, 2023 22:11:03 GMT -5
Funny thing about projections is that nearly everyone is wrong! Just look at the NCAA basketball final four. Lol
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 28, 2023 9:35:39 GMT -5
Funny thing about projections is that nearly everyone is wrong! Just look at the NCAA basketball final four. Lol You OBVIOUSLY haven’t seen all the WAR that was projected for Trevor Story in 2022 & 2023.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 28, 2023 10:53:41 GMT -5
Professional psychic here.
The 2023 Boston Red Sox won 87 games during the 2023 season.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 28, 2023 16:10:23 GMT -5
Some of the posters who are in the optimistic camp have made well thought-out arguments the last couple of months, causing me to move a bit from my earlier prediction of 75 to 78 wins. I'll go to 81. This looks like the definition of an average team. We have some players who will be fun to watch and some obvious holes.
I also think we have higher-than-average injury risk. Pre-OD, we've already lost Story for a big chunk of the season. His spot goes to the oft-injured Christian Arroyo.
Paxton will be out until God knows when. Mondesi, Whitlock (I saw him at an event in November and he was gimping around on one crutch) and Bello will start the season on the IL. It's reasonable to wonder how KKH will hold up to the rigors of playing SS every day.
And there's Sale.
I've never hesitated about forking over the money for the MLB Extra Innings package. I found myself giving it some thought this year due to the mediocrity and my continued disgust with the botching of the Xander situation. But I bought it. I expect to be happy with my decision on about 81 nights between now and October.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 29, 2023 11:32:00 GMT -5
538....who have to be considered an ally to most around here has the Sox at 81-81. That doesn't square with some of the numbers being thrown around here.
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