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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 29, 2023 11:46:28 GMT -5
538....who have to be considered an ally to most around here has the Sox at 81-81. That doesn't square with some of the numbers being thrown around here. Skimmed this thread from page 5 (mid January) on to see people's predictions (and truly skimmed so I may have missed one or misread a quote of another source as a prediction) and here's what I found: 75 75 77 78 78 79 80 81 83 83 85 86 87 88 90 I'll add my own prediction of 86 wins, and 81 would actually be exactly the median picked on this board (or the small portion of the board that put a number in here)! It also lines up with FG, and is higher than the sportsbooks over/under. Poll for the board would be interesting we'd probably have a pretty neat distribution.
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Post by seamus on Mar 29, 2023 11:56:28 GMT -5
Fangraphs released their first Power Rankings and it seems to be trying to fit the Red Sox into this "aimless mediocrity" narrative that won't die, any evidence to the contrary be damned. They rank the Red Sox, with a projected 83-79 record, as the 16th best team and part of the "High Variance Could-Be's" in the fifth tier... even though the overall Team Quality metric they use is tied with the Astros and Rays for 6th-best in baseball. If I'm reading their chart correctly, it looks like they're one of just 4 teams projected to be above average offensively, in the rotation, in the bullpen, and in the field (Braves, Yankees, Dodgers). I mean, at some point don't you have to say, "Hmm, maybe they're actually a good team and the low playoff odds are more about the AL East's strength than anything else."
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,535
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 29, 2023 12:14:28 GMT -5
73
I'm coming in at 73 games, but they will be competitive in most of their games and not look like they can't wait to leave the ballpark.
I think Yoshi and Casas will be studs, but until the cavalry comes back from the IL for the rotation there's going to be a lot of hard hit balls and frustrating innings. For the life of me I don't know why Ort is still on this team.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 29, 2023 12:55:48 GMT -5
I'll go with 91 wins (91-71), just to be contrarian. More things break in their favor this year than last, and they finish 2nd to the Jays in the AL East and earn a wild card spot.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 29, 2023 12:58:40 GMT -5
538....who have to be considered an ally to most around here has the Sox at 81-81. That doesn't square with some of the numbers being thrown around here. Skimmed this thread from page 5 (mid January) on to see people's predictions (and truly skimmed so I may have missed one or misread a quote of another source as a prediction) and here's what I found: 75 75 77 78 78 79 80 81 83 83 85 86 87 88 90 I'll add my own prediction of 86 wins, and 81 would actually be exactly the median picked on this board (or the small portion of the board that put a number in here)! It also lines up with FG, and is higher than the sportsbooks over/under. Poll for the board would be interesting we'd probably have a pretty neat distribution. Adding to this and including the latest two predictions, the median is still 81 and the mean is 81.9.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 29, 2023 13:40:49 GMT -5
I've seen nothing to change my guesstimate of 79 wins made in January.
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Post by greenmonster on Mar 29, 2023 14:10:06 GMT -5
After a stellar start to spring training, they ended up 14-14-4. This is a .500 team. Prediction: 81 Wins which is actually an improvement over 2022. Expect to see some encouraging things from the likes of Casas, Yoshida, and Bello but the health of the pitching staff and Story will limit the teams ability to win games.
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Post by cheers on Mar 29, 2023 14:44:29 GMT -5
I think some good things are going to happen, but the injury plague continues in 2023 (particularly in the rotation and middle infield) - so the club never gains traction. 72-90.
Regardless of outlook, overjoyed that real baseball returns tomorrow.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 29, 2023 15:02:46 GMT -5
90 wins seems reasonably optimistic.
Need: a couple of pleasant surprises plus a minimum of "empty" spots. I think they have sufficient depth that they might find the former while also moving away from the latter.
Need: some smart reinforcements come trade deadline. I feel confident JH will pony up for a team fighting for the playoffs.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Mar 29, 2023 18:22:52 GMT -5
Some of the posters who are in the optimistic camp have made well thought-out arguments the last couple of months, causing me to move a bit from my earlier prediction of 75 to 78 wins. I'll go to 81. This looks like the definition of an average team. We have some players who will be fun to watch and some obvious holes. I also think we have higher-than-average injury risk. Pre-OD, we've already lost Story for a big chunk of the season. His spot goes to the oft-injured Christian Arroyo. Paxton will be out until God knows when. Mondesi, Whitlock (I saw him at an event in November and he was gimping around on one crutch) and Bello will start the season on the IL. It's reasonable to wonder how KKH will hold up to the rigors of playing SS every day. And there's Sale. I've never hesitated about forking over the money for the MLB Extra Innings package. I found myself giving it some thought this year due to the mediocrity and my continued disgust with the botching of the Xander situation. But I bought it. I expect to be happy with my decision on about 81 nights between now and October.I agree with a lot of this, especially the bold. The health of the team concerns me. Like you, I got the TV package after some thought. I’m usually optimistic about the Sox. Not so much now. Maybe it’s opening day nerves or something. A couple months ago I was thinking 86 wins. Today I’m at 79.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 29, 2023 18:45:53 GMT -5
i am going with the uber scientific, last year was bad, this year will be good, analysis.
I am calling 88 wins and a playoff spot to boot. When it comes to predicting Sox success, lump me in with the "he can't help it, he loves the Red Sox" crowd.
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Post by foreverred9 on Mar 29, 2023 19:05:26 GMT -5
Going with 84 wins
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Post by jmei on Mar 29, 2023 19:33:01 GMT -5
85.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 29, 2023 19:33:57 GMT -5
86 (am I doing this right?)
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Post by incandenza on Mar 29, 2023 19:49:51 GMT -5
Fangraphs released their first Power Rankings and it seems to be trying to fit the Red Sox into this "aimless mediocrity" narrative that won't die, any evidence to the contrary be damned. They rank the Red Sox, with a projected 83-79 record, as the 16th best team and part of the "High Variance Could-Be's" in the fifth tier... even though the overall Team Quality metric they use is tied with the Astros and Rays for 6th-best in baseball. If I'm reading their chart correctly, it looks like they're one of just 4 teams projected to be above average offensively, in the rotation, in the bullpen, and in the field (Braves, Yankees, Dodgers). I mean, at some point don't you have to say, "Hmm, maybe they're actually a good team and the low playoff odds are more about the AL East's strength than anything else." I legitimately don't understand how these are supposed to work. They claim to be entirely data-driven, but then how do they get that discrepancy between team quality and projected wins?
You might think that massive gap is due to the toughness of the AL East, but the Rays also are at 138 in team quality, yet are projected for 4 more wins and are paired with the Dodgers two tiers above the Red Sox.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Mar 29, 2023 20:15:45 GMT -5
At least on the offense side, LF, RF, 1B and CF ( assuming Kiki) all can reasonably expected to be more productive, which means more runs. C, 2B and DH nuetral. SS clear downgrade. I think this years lineup scores more runs, more consistently. Starting pitching has a reasonable expectation to be better, maybe incredibly better. I will not re hash the deltas here as others have done so, so well, many times. No question the bullpen is built to be much better. More balanced schedule helps as well.It also helps that the division rivals, with the exception of Toronto (Varsho, Bassit) have not gotten much, if any, better. So Sox have a reasonable chance for a better division record. Does all this make 12-15 more wins possible, I think so. 86-89 wins is my call. This analysis is of course not highly data driven and represents gut opinion. But that is how I roll Fair amount of roster change since Jan 13. I'll still hang in within my range range above. 86 wins it is.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 29, 2023 20:23:02 GMT -5
After a stellar start to spring training, they ended up 14-14-4. This is a .500 team. Prediction: 81 Wins which is actually an improvement over 2022. Expect to see some encouraging things from the likes of Casas, Yoshida, and Bello but the health of the pitching staff and Story will limit the teams ability to win games. Ah yes, because spring training record is totally indicative of regular season success. Season's over folks, we had a good run
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 29, 2023 20:43:18 GMT -5
Fangraphs released their first Power Rankings and it seems to be trying to fit the Red Sox into this "aimless mediocrity" narrative that won't die, any evidence to the contrary be damned. They rank the Red Sox, with a projected 83-79 record, as the 16th best team and part of the "High Variance Could-Be's" in the fifth tier... even though the overall Team Quality metric they use is tied with the Astros and Rays for 6th-best in baseball. If I'm reading their chart correctly, it looks like they're one of just 4 teams projected to be above average offensively, in the rotation, in the bullpen, and in the field (Braves, Yankees, Dodgers). I mean, at some point don't you have to say, "Hmm, maybe they're actually a good team and the low playoff odds are more about the AL East's strength than anything else." So how did Fangraphs do predicting LAST YEAR’S Sox total? How did they do on the AL East as a whole? I don’t tend to give these kinds of models much credibility. Too many variables with too many humans involved for my liking.
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Post by larrycook on Mar 29, 2023 21:41:36 GMT -5
Based on all the issues this team has, I am going with 72 wins
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 29, 2023 21:51:42 GMT -5
Based on all the issues this team has, I am going with 72 wins For context, going off of FG’s projections they would be tied for the 4th worst team in baseball. Seems a tad low
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Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 29, 2023 22:22:14 GMT -5
92
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 29, 2023 23:48:05 GMT -5
They could win 90. They could lose 90. Some things will go right. Others not so much. I think the pitching/health will be problematic and the offense won't be strong enough to compensate for it. They'll hang in better but they look quite average to me, with little in the way of star power.
I think they're a middle of the pack, mid tier average team, so I'll pick them at 81-81.
If Sale and Bello pitch like top of the rotation starters and Kluber/Whitlock gives them a solid mid rotation starter, the pen pitches well with its hierarchy and Casas develops, Yoshida hits like an all star, the Sox could go out and win 90.
Or they could deal with constant injuries which could decimate the starting staff, the pen's additions show their age, the outfield defense suffers, their up the middle combo doesnt provide much offense and nobody establishes themselves and they turn into a lineup where there's only 1 real threat, they could lose 90. I think a combo of the bad and good occurs and it lands them in the middle.
This team has a wide error bar than I can remember. Usually you can pick them within 10 games. This year it could be between 15 - 20, which us why I'll take the midpoint.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Mar 30, 2023 5:36:46 GMT -5
I love this level of optimism. Never change!
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Post by taftreign on Mar 30, 2023 6:42:13 GMT -5
While the team may be a .500 win level team now, I believe adding in a Story return and the first true signs of prospect impact in the second half this years Red Sox push to 86 wins.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Mar 30, 2023 7:23:35 GMT -5
77 wins. I just feel the pitching staff is way too much of a question mark to finish .500. If things break right they could win 83-84 games. But I'll go with 77.
But they'll be fun to watch for the most part.
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